2004 MN4

ERRORIST · 2004-12-25 10:33:57

WOW, If it hit the USA we are doomed!!
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/a … 41224.html

RobS · 2004-12-25 13:15:52

Doomed? Not really. A 400 meter rock would kill everyone within 50 kilometers or so of impact. That's 2,000 square kilometers; the size of a typical county or metro area. I wouldn't want to be there, but anywhere else the sky would get dark at most, and maybe there'd be a boom.

Oh, and Merry Christmas. . .

-- RobS

Josh Cryer · 2004-12-25 15:04:31

This is the highest rated asteriod on the Torino scale (with a rating of 4.0). Odds are 1 in 63 that it'll hit. Pretty fun.

ERRORIST · 2004-12-25 16:00:08

Pretty fun? What? What would it do if it hit 10 miles off of the North Carolina coast?

RobS · 2004-12-25 16:41:07

Splash!

Seriously, tsunamis are dampened by continental shelves because they are body waves that disturb the entire ocean bottom to top, so they break off shore. Places lacking continental shelves are the ones in danger, like the California coast or Hawaii.

I don't know how big a tsunami a 400 meter asteroid could make. Probably comparable to a really big earthquake.

-- RobS

Grypd · 2004-12-25 17:51:05

Seriously 1 in 300 chance of hitting and doing significant damage is bad. but it really should be noted that we have time to ensure that this event does not happen. At least we know about this one. with any luck with our skywatch program we will make sure we know all the threats.

Of course if you really wish a doomsday scenario how about the supervolcano called yellowstone going off. Probability only 99.9% and it goes off every 200,000 years the last time 240,000 years ago so well overdue. Effect probable man being sent back to the stone age.

The BBC have a Drama program called SuperVolcano due to be aired in the UK in January about this. It is from the same team that gave us space Odyssey and appears to be just as good. Of course it helps that most experts now believe that the last SuperVolcano nearly made Mankind extinct and is responsible for the reason Humans are so closely linked genetically that only could have happened if there was at one time only about 2000 humans around in a bottleneck scenario. This Volcanoe now makes up one of the straights of Sumatra.

So from a purely Human basis it means we should go to the Moon and Mars and stay why so that no super disaster can ever threaten the whole species. That is why the space sector and manned missions are so important.

ERRORIST · 2004-12-25 17:51:19

That is one we should try and capture in our orbit so it won't hit us.Perhaps? Then study the dang thing.

Belinda · 2004-12-26 07:34:27

If we can't deal with this by April 2029, we deserve to be hit by it.

Cobra Commander · 2004-12-26 08:17:17

If we can't deal with this by April 2029, we deserve to be hit by it.

Can't argue with that.

To be destroyed by a threat unseen is worthy of pity, to perish by a threat ignored is worthy only of contempt.

ERRORIST · 2004-12-26 08:50:15

Lets have a massive beer party and drink to our demise.Biblical phrophecy Wormwood "REVELATIONS" read it.
Looks worse than before. 1 in 45.
Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24.

Grypd · 2004-12-26 09:15:31

I wonder what the makeup is of 2004 MN4 if it is a mineral or carbaceous carbonate class it may well be worth going to this asteroid and capturing it if possible. Or just give it a little shunt so it falls in the Sun.

So 2004 MN4 congratulations on volunteering on becoming the first asteroid to be a good candidate for deliberate intervention.

ERRORIST · 2004-12-26 09:20:43

Space elevator material galore!!!

MarsDog · 2004-12-26 10:41:11

If it is made of something useful, just nudge it to hit the Moon.
A crater made by a golden asteroid would make a good mine.

Or have it land on an uninhabited island ?

WOW, If it hit the USA we are doomed!!

But if it were headed for Iran, Iraq, North Korea or other Evil Countries ?

ERRORIST · 2004-12-26 10:58:12

Perhaps they are nudging it this way??? Who knows? I think we should catpture it and study it. It would be an awsome learning experiance.

Palomar · 2004-12-26 10:59:37

*Check out the http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … 022]MADMEN thread.

I'm sure we'll deal with the threat adequately enough, and long before push comes to shove.

However, as we all know, nothing is entirely fail-safe. There'll be backup plans and etc., one of which will likely save the day.

But to wish ill will on the human race (most of whom can't do a damned thing about it to begin with) because science and technology might fail in the end (it probably won't, but...) is, IMO, a bit crass.

If scientists and technology fail, I don't believe others nor I "deserve" the death penalty for it.

--Cindy

MarsDog · 2004-12-26 11:29:25

I would bet that North Korea is doing feasibility studies to have the asteroid land in the middle President Bush's Ranch. Who else has ill will ?

Of course if you really wish a doomsday scenario how about the supervolcano called yellowstone going off. Probability only 99.9% and it goes off every 200,000 years the last time 240,000 years ago so well overdue. Effect probable man being sent back to the stone age.

Could it be depressurized ? I am thinking of a long mining tunnel leading to the Pacific to let it escape.

ERRORIST · 2004-12-26 11:38:00

Could somthing like these volcanos cause the Earths rotation to speed up or slow down?

Grypd · 2004-12-26 11:56:40

I would bet that North Korea is doing feasibility studies to have the asteroid land in the middle President Bush's Ranch. Who else has ill will ?

You bet that this in the future will be a real threat. If I remember right in KSRs novel this is actually done. It really is a poor mans Global killer. And we have enough sick and twisted people that steps will have to be taken to ensure it does not happen.

Also im sorry to say that the amount of pressure and power of the Yellowstone SuperVolcano is that any attempt to release the pressure will only let it off. Think Krakatoa times 1000 and you have the sort of power these things let off. Sheet Lava across 1000s of miles and a Volcanic winter that stops plant growth for a year or two. But frankly it probaly wont happen for centuries possibly millenia so if we cant fix it dont worry about it.

GCNRevenger · 2004-12-26 12:00:11

Hmmm. 1 in 40ish. Thats... cause for concern rather then cause for "hmm thats nice."

Okay, whats the best way to move a half-kilometer sized asteroid?

ERRORIST · 2004-12-26 12:01:54

With a carbon nano tube pipeline.

GCNRevenger · 2004-12-26 12:36:03

No and no

For the controlled venting of supervolcanos, which their is no easy way due to the annoying fact that if you release the pressure, the CO2 buildup will release and kaboom... anyway, a CNT pipe could not withstand the temperatures involved. It would just burn. "Whoops"

For deflecting asteroids, well, you have to have somthing to pull it with. CNT material would just be lighter weight rope.

ERRORIST · 2004-12-26 13:19:04

How about if we shoot massive amounts of Moon material on it to slow it down???

GCNRevenger · 2004-12-26 14:39:12

No easy way to guide the Moon rocks to hit it just right.

A better idea might be to go and dig into it, and throw its own rocks away as reaction mass. Either that or send hundreds of nuclear bombs to nudge it perhaps.

Euler · 2004-12-26 16:10:43

2004 MN4 is small enough that it could be destroyed or nudged out of the way by simply slamming a probe into it. That would be easier than trying any sort of ISPP on the asteroid and would be politically more acceptable than using a nuke.

ERRORIST · 2004-12-26 16:15:08

So this is the real reason why we are doing this???

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/de … 41214.html

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