Predictions for 2005 - Dusting off the crystal ball...

Mad Grad Student · 2005-01-01 00:48:34

Seeing as how it's now (at the time I wrote this) the final minutes of 2004, it seems appropriate to bring this up again. I was going to post a few predictions of my own but Napoleon Dynamite is in the DVD player right now and I'm only going to get a break of a few minutes. So anyway, if you have any predictions, preminitions, or vague inklings about what might occur in 2005 feel free to post them here. Hindsight is 20/20, but let's deal with that later.

Trebuchet · 2005-01-01 02:39:11

- Deciding to take time off from the tiring work of erasing the state of Florida, the hurricanes decide to pester North Carolina instead.

- The media will continue to complain about the horrible quagmire in Iraq throughout the year, even after the US forces leave in September to go beat up Iran.

- A nation in Africa will collapse into civil war and chaos. The UN will be appalled and do nothing constructive about it.

- Speaking of the UN, Kofi Annan will be removed. A brief canidacy for Vaclav Havel will develop, however, some third world guy you never heard of before will get the job.

- His network of terrorists having been shredded by the US military for years, Osama Bin Laden will stop wasting his money on destroying the US economy and killing Americans via sponsoring international terrorism. Instead, Osama Bin Laden will set up a corporation selling cigarettes and fast food.

- His attempt to influence Ukrainian politics having failed, Putin will turn his sights on Kazakhstan instead.

- In a stunner, the Philadelphia Eagles lose the NFC title game... again. The winner gets the honor of being splattered by the Patriots.

RobS · 2005-01-01 08:23:20

Predictions for 2005?

-- The dollar will continue to fall and talk of a possible collapse of the dollar will get louder, but probably won't happen.

-- The US will still have 100,000 or so troops in Iraq in Dec. 2005, there will still be a lot of guerilla and terrorist attacks on them, the American public will be getting really fed up, the total death toll on the troops will be approaching the 2,000 mark, and the Administration will be looking for a graceful, Nixonesque escape (a la Vietnam). The Administration will still be using the media skillfully enough, however, so that the American public by and large doesn't blame it for a mess it caused and could have avoided.

-- The effort to reform social security will have largely failed, but the Administration will get enough to declare victory.

-- The deficit will continue to grow seriously, but at least the economy will be growing better as well.

-- There will be no major terrorist attack on the US and Osama will still be issuing tapes from one of his caves. OR: Osama will be caught and after a brief flicker of publicity, few will care.

-- The brief chance to attain progress on the Palestine/Israel mess will be squandered by the US, in spite of Tony Blair's best efforts.

-- RobS

Palomar · 2005-01-01 08:26:03

*Pope John Paul II will pass away. An Italian cardinal will be named his successor, or the first African will gain the Papacy.

"Ray" and "Beyond the Sea" vie for most Oscar nods, though Jamie Foxx will win Best Actor for his portrayal of Ray Charles.

Iran will strike U.S. operations somewhere in Iraq with a small nuclear device.

Hillary Clinton will announce her intentions to run for the 2008 Presidency near year's end. She'll also suggest Elizabeth Dole change party affiliations and run as her Vice Presidential candidate.

Two Mercury-Gemini-Apollo era astronauts will pass away.

Spirit will "kick the bucket" before Opportunity does; by June, only Oppy will be operational. (Though I hope I'm wrong, but...they're both getting on in age). Oppy will make it to Victoria Crater.

J.K. Rowling's next installment of the Harry Potter series will be a dud by comparison to previous rave reviews and massive sells of previous installments.

An extremely powerful coronal mass ejection will finally do SOHO "in."

--Cindy

Cobra Commander · 2005-01-01 12:02:46

I could have swore someone started a "predictions for 2005" thread months ago but search didn't find it, ah well.

- The media will continue to complain about the horrible quagmire in Iraq throughout the year, even after the US forces leave in September to go beat up Iran.

<casting bones across across the floor> US forces will not set foot upon Iranian soil until the mullahs are deposed from within, and then only by "invitation". Iran will refrain from using the nuclear capability they acquire, knowing that it is the threat which gives them power, the use will bring ruin.

- A nation in Africa will collapse into civil war and chaos. The UN will be appalled and do nothing constructive about it.

Isn't this a given?

-- The effort to reform social security will have largely failed, but the Administration will get enough to declare victory.

<another toss of the bones> There will be no declaration of victory as Congress lacks the will and fortitude to do what must be done if Social Security is to remain solvent. As budget deficits rise and more younger citizens realize they are being bilked to pay for the retirement of the elderly, the care of the infirm, the sloth of the lazy and the irresponsibility of the elected the political discourse will become even more divisive and radicalized, beginning in '05 but requiring nearly a decade to come to fruition.

Hillary Clinton will announce her intentions to run for the 2008 Presidency near year's end. She'll also suggest Elizabeth Dole change party affiliations and run as her Vice Presidential candidate.

Democrats will get into a frothing frenzy, again thinking they have a sure winner. There will be much eye rolling and snickering.

And a final toss of the bones, North Korea will do... nothing. Osama bin Laden will do... nothing of substance. The growth of the Chinese economy will begin to show signs of significant slowdown. The growth of the US ecenomy will increase marginally, but will still be harped on as "the worst economy in fifty years". The value of the Euro in relation to the dollar will fall. The Beast will ascend from the depths to bring damnation... <turns stray finger bone back 90 degrees after cat runs across> correction, oil prices will be less this time next year, though not by much, following a drop in the spring and a sharp spike in late summer.

Mad Grad Student · 2005-01-01 14:05:56

Here's what we said last year:
http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … redictions for 2004

As for this year:
1. Amidst an enormous crowd of protesters even larger than in 2000, George W. Bush is sworn in for a second four year term (may the various deities help us...).

2. During his state of the union speech, Bush once again mentions Iran and North Korea and drops hints that one of them may be next, reaffirming his invade-now foreign policy. I put the odds of one of them being invaaded at 50/50. There is no mention of space whatsoever in his speech.

3. Another X Prize team might launch their rocket and break the 100K barrier to space. Once again, the odds are around 50/50.

4. Spirit roves around in the Columbia hills untill late spring, the victim of a dust storm. Opportunity fares better, but I really don't see either of the MERs lasting after November-ish. They've proved to be very hardy, though, they might surprise us all...

5. After 29 long painful months for NASA, Discovery launches in early July to tend to the ISS, which has been in critical condition for the last few months. One other space shuttle launch is made, actually adding a component to the ISS this time and provides further testing of the new in-space tile repair techniques devised by NASA.

6. Despite many false alarms, Bin Laden videos, and doom-and-gloom speechs by the Rove-er- Bush/Cheney administration, there are no major terrorist attacks that kill more than 50 people anywhere in the world this year. In the US ther is not even a hint of terrorism.

7. Amidst pledges of big cuts to the budget defecit, the United States plunges even further into debt in 2005 due to extravagant spending on tax cuts and Iraq. A new prime minister is elected and very likely assisinated. To help the debt, enormous cuts are made to education spending.

8. China's economy baloons with no signs of stopping and the dollar looses further ground to the Euro. Hype about the end of the oil economy is abated by new oil field discoveries in Kazakhstan and Canada.

9. Ukrane will become a foreign policy disaster and start to alienate Russia from America. Putin lobbies for and achieves increased censorship and Soviet-like government controls against American advising.

Cobra Commander · 2005-01-01 15:22:51

Here's the old 2005 predictions thread.

http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … ...3;t=557

Some interesting stuff in there, for the sake of clarity let's just quote anything of note in here.

And remember, always in motion is the future.

dicktice · 2005-01-01 19:40:32

Hybrid-electric cars and trucks will begin to diminish smog in afflicted cities around the World, without being their use being imposed, due to economy of operation alone.

C M Edwards · 2005-01-04 07:16:07

Hmm... Okay, time for my predictions.

I predict that I will not keep my new year's resolutions.

I predict that the Iraqi elections will proceed as planned in spite of objections from the Iraqi defense minister and a lot of really scared observers. Voters will actually show up. However, a second election will need to be scheduled within six months to replace all of the assassinated candidates.

The civil war in Iraq, of course, continues unabated.

I predict that the truce between the Indonesian government and the rebels in Sumatra will continue, mostly because of the efforts of the Red Crescent. The US will fail to meet its official aid pledges for tsunami relief, and Al Qaeda will step up recruiting in affected areas, including Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Cobra Commander · 2005-01-04 08:07:41

The US will fail to meet its official aid pledges for tsunami relief, and Al Qaeda will step up recruiting in affected areas, including Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

Somehow I don't see the "America didn't give us helpless victims everything they promised" gambit to be a big boost for al Quaeda. They have a definate underlying "Islamic pride" element and this approach totally undercuts it. It would be an admission that rather than attacking us because we're evil infidels they're fighting because they're losers that can't do anything else. Not good for recruitment overall.

But we're talking about people who willingly fly planes into buildings to please an invisible man in the sky in the expectation of sexual favors, so who knows how their minds work.

Yes, grossly oversimplified...

The civil war in Iraq, of course, continues unabated.

Just to be nitpicky, the situation in Iraq isn't a "civil war" really, it's a guerrilla campaign. A small group of malcotents fighting against the constituted law and order and taking it out on the majority of the population that just wants it over.

Palomar · 2005-01-04 08:25:22

Somehow I don't see the "America didn't give us helpless victims everything they promised" gambit to be a big boost for al Quaeda. They have a definate underlying "Islamic pride" element and this approach totally undercuts it.

*Yeah, I'd agree. I think the U.S. will make good on its pledges, etc.

It would be an admission that rather than attacking us because we're evil infidels they're fighting because they're losers that can't do anything else. Not good for recruitment overall.

*LOL. Yep.

But we're talking about people who willingly fly planes into buildings to please an invisible man in the sky in the expectation of sexual favors, so who knows how their minds work.

*Well, considering they're -not- thinking with the head attached to their necks...

Sometimes I wonder how the human brain evolved to be as highly complex as it is, considering how many people don't use that gray stuff between their ears.

--Cindy

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