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#176 Re: Space Policy » Glenn Criticizes Bush Space Plan - says direct-to-Mars is the way to go » 2006-03-27 14:33:09

See above...:

"1: We said we would to ESA/RSA/etc, we're already shorting them years of ISS duty by Nasa.

By showing disrespect for the science missions planned for ISS, havent we already damaged our relations with ESA/RSA whether or not we finish ISS reluctantly and with petulance? The above reason for finishing ISS simply strikes me as petulant - - like insisting that your former boyfriend/girlfriend accompany you to a concert or wedding, even after you have broken up.

To finish ISS while steadfastly proclaiming how stupid it is will destroy our relations with the ESA/RSA more thoroughly than making a clean break and offering amends in some other way. European rocket scientists are not stupid and may well be less politically naive than we US-ians. :;):

2: As nice as it would be to make Shuttle/ISS go away, simply pulling the plug is logisticly a near impossibility... politicly painful too, laying off thousands that keep Shuttle flying... Nasa will need to start narrowing down SDV designs in the mean time."

Actually, there is sense to this, especially if large numbers of the STS workforce will reach retirement age (or close to it) by 2010 or 2012. Thus, we will continue to flying shuttle so GWB doesnt lose votes in Florida. smile

Hey, that may be the best we can do. Still, its an awful lot of money to essentially do nothing.

Therefore, a January surprise (orbiter remains too unsafe to fly, even to ISS) seems a possible scenario, at least to me.

= = =

Why ISS and not Hubble? See first point. Why does Sean OKeefe get to make that final call? How does his claiming "the buck stops with me'' help build a consensus for space that will survive transitions in political power?

Yeah the Shuttle budget is really ugly but lets compare the Shuttle costs to some of the other big spenders, Katrina early estimates exceeded $75 billion but economic impact may be in the scale of $100-200 billion and still were not accounting for potential catastrophic damage inland due to flooding,  another US$400 billion  to be spent on defense, GW's 2005 tax cuts sum up to about $350 billion, another $220 billion has been allocated by the US Congress for Iraq, I also saw links to the deficit, pension, and rising debts. Some other poster had a link to the debt clock posted.

Somebody else was saying the VSE, Moon and Mars-trips will cost anything between $300Billion - 1,000Bn or as high as One-Trillion !! At the rate George is burning up US dollars, I think he will have the trillion spent long before the 2008 election

#177 Re: Human missions » How much the return to the Moon and Mars-trip costs ? » 2006-03-27 10:04:54

I think funding for the human side of the budget would get reduced if they failed.

Lunar missions is where the future lies according to NASA, Mars is getting cut back the focus now is Moon. So they better make good use of this budget for lunar missions.

U.S. plans moon base on path to Mars
Despite lack of fanfare, scientists work on technological hurdles
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12018911/
Harder than Mars
In some ways, the moon will be harder than Mars. Moon dust is much more abrasive than Mars dust; Mars has atmosphere; Mars has more gravity (one-third of Earth's); Mars has plenty of ice for a potential water supply, while the moon may have some, but probably not very much.

Still, the moon is ultimately much more forgiving because it is much closer — 250,000 miles away, while Mars is 34 million miles from Earth at its closest point. If someone needs help on the moon, it takes three days to get there. By contrast, Mars will be several months away even with the help of advanced — and as yet nonexistent — propulsion systems.

Not having to pay as dearly for mistakes is one key reason why the moon is an integral part of the Bush initiative. The other, as even scientists point out, is that if the United States does not return to the moon, others will.

"The new thing is China, and they've announced they're going to the moon. The Europeans want to go; the Russians want to go; and if we don't go, maybe they'll go with the Chinese," Mars Institute Chairman Pascal Lee said in an interview. "Could we bypass the moon and go to Mars while India and China are going to the moon? I don't think so."

#178 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ? » 2006-03-27 08:41:42

Robcwillis this is going to definitly veer into what is politics but any consideration of the use of international partners to develop the Moon/Mars Initiative will have to be a political discussion.

Russia has used its leverage over the ISS to inflict costly (to the USA) victories in public and financial causes. The US has learned that with international partners things cost more and the compromises that are needed usually lead to a weakened project. The ISS is in the wrong orbit to support the Moon Mars programme so the Russians could launch to it.

But also incidentally other space powers have discovered that working with the USA is a bad thing and are less likely to want to do so in the future. ESA and JAXA both have major science modules sitting in a warehouse slowly reaching obscelescence. Certainly in the case of the ESA science module the original plan and up until guite late in development was to launch this module from an Arianne and it was to be able to move itself into position it was also to have its own power and atmosphere. In short a spacestation within a spacestation. But due to NASA and its order that all modules must be delivered by the Shuttle a lot had to be cut out of the plan. And with the problems of the shuttle all the money spent is at the moment wasted.

Add to this other things like the current furore over the JSF and you see that for NASA getting partners would not necassarily be as easy as it was for the ISS programme.

Recent test-firings have confirmed the reliability of the Vinci cryogenic rocket motor, which could find use powering the European Vega and Ariane 5 lifting bodies, CNES said in a statement late last week.
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Vin … Tests.html
The Vinci engine uses an expander cycle that avoids the use of gas generators to drive its turbopumps, thereby reducing the risk of explosions and enhancing both reliability and safety, the French space agency said. Vinci's hydrogen turbopump, the size of a small backpack, produces 2.5 Megawatts of power.

#179 Re: Human missions » How much the return to the Moon and Mars-trip costs ? » 2006-03-26 16:08:10

You could say that the "three strikes" rule applies to NASA:

Strike 1: Building the Shuttle that doesn't work (~1970-1990)

Strike 2: Sticking with the Shuttle and building the ISS (~1990-2000)

Strike 3: Failing to manage to VSE competantly (2006+)

...and then they're out

They'll get the VSE done because NASA can't afford to drop the ball again.
What do you think would happen NASA if they messed this up : would the agnecy be broken-up GCNRevenger ?

#180 Re: Human missions » One man one way suicide mission... » 2006-03-25 13:35:52

If we are afraid to at least take some risk, we should then not be going into space at all.

Mars, One Way
http://www.redcolony.com/art.php?id=0403130

#181 Re: Human missions » Can China go to Mars ? Dr. Zubrin will talk in August 06 » 2006-03-25 13:32:03

A lot talk about Chinese is going on and there is a lot of chat on the web about this one

Thoughts on Mars Direct
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/65/1
Dr Bob talking to the Chinese !
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums … 14&posts=2
Zubrin in China
http://whatonmars.com/?q=node/1789
Mars for six billion dollars?
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/oped-01m-overview.html

#182 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ? » 2006-03-23 01:18:14

average Americans are going to wonder why we are putting expensive American payloads on top of foreign rockets when we have perfectly good rockets ourselves. This is a nontrivial political effect that will impact national support for VSE.

Strange how you see offshoring to China, Europe, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia as a national crime but at the same time you vigorously defend outsourcing SPACE EXPLORATION TO INDIA,
http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=4504
GCN, you got stock or shares on one of those Indian pads ?

#183 Re: Human missions » Dr. Griffin's new architecture » 2006-03-22 12:54:25

Now you are just being silly...

Just because you suddenly start putting the word 'private' in front of something doesn't make it an automatic success. These guys are big on profit and love to cut and run once the going gets tough - and asides from all their usual problems have you forgotten all the disasters and failed projects of the private sector, Canadian Arrow looked nice but never went anywhere, Space Transport Corp's Rubicon 1 engines exploded on the launch-pad, Solar-sail explorations became a failure, guys like SpaceX have a nice and fancy powerpoint shows with their future Falcon rockets but some say Musk is dreaming and perhaps these guys watched too much Trek or played too many computer games thinking their 'BFR' is going to open up the final frontier. Musk may have some of the better designs than those others but the private sector now has a growing number of Spacefrauds.

#184 Re: Human missions » Selling out Mars and Science? » 2006-03-22 12:39:15

The outrigger Keck telescopes are gone.

I can't help but imagining someone scrapping that project and thinking: 'heehee, now THAT will maybe shut up our dear friend Jeffrey Bell...'

Or it might make Bell go totally insane and cause him to rant even more !

#185 Re: Human missions » NASA Calls On Private Sector » 2006-03-22 12:25:34

Outsourcing can be good and bad, for example giving many of the Spaceprobes to JPL worked wonders and it created Amercian jobs, JPL have wonderful facilites with a wonderful history in American space exploration
- however giving away booster jobs and outsourcing Moon exploration to India, the Private sectors or Russia could be a costly mistake.

#186 Re: Human missions » Dr. Griffin's new architecture » 2006-03-22 10:31:11

What companies? Not provide what?

I suspect he may be talking about a heap of private companies and coporations that offering launch servies and CEV designs to NASA, but in reality many are working on shoestring budgets and will only be able to lift small payloads or even worse build rockets that explode on the launch pad....well I guess we should be happy as long as they don't start outsourcing this part of the VSE to India.

#187 Re: Unmanned probes » James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) - 6.5m mirror, L2 orbit » 2006-03-22 09:40:35

US astronomy: Is the next big thing too big ?
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 … 0140a.html
So no one is denying that the JWST will be a first-rate telescope, perhaps even a revolutionary one. Just last August an independent assessment team charged by the project to review the telescope's science potential reported that "the scientific case for the JWST mission has become even stronger" since the Decadal Survey's endorsement in 2000. But what of its expense?


JWST Talking Points & a revised version
http://www.nasawatch.com/archives/2006/ … .html#more
JWST's current cost is appropriate for a 6.5-m space telescope. The year 2000 cost estimates for JWST (~$1B for an 8-m telescope) did not include technology development (around $230M), nor did they include work done at NASA centers (adds about ~20% to the cost under NASA's current accounting rules). Inflation to FY2006 dollars adds another 18%. JWST also incurred significant costs while the Ariane launch was debated in agencies external to NASA. With all these factors, JWST's cost estimate is now $3.5B from the first day through launch....Despite the desire of some in the community to point blame for space science financial stress at one or two particular science projects, the record is clear that NASA support for development of the new Crew Exploration Vehicle is almost entirely responsible. NASA agency budget growth in FY07 is 1% (removing Katrina repairs), but proposed growth in the CEV budget is 72%. The proposed budget removes $0.4B from science in FY07, and almost $2B of previously anticipated growth in science over the next 5 years.

#188 Re: Human missions » Outsourcing the VSE and Mars » 2006-03-22 03:43:44

It will be outsoucring both technology and jobs to India, what makes India so special that it can get the red carpet from NASA. The USA is already thinking of cutting its joint missions with Brazil, Japan or Europe ( LISA, Dawn, ISS, Europa...etc ) :evil: in favour of joint Indo-US missions, NASA seems to want to break away from the Russian pads and the USA also snubbed the Chinese program and rejected China's offer for Space cooperation. As for the USA's threat to blow up the EU's Galileo satellites, I think there could be something very sinister in this. :x

#189 Re: Human missions » Outsourcing the VSE and Mars » 2006-03-21 08:56:45

Is there another place in New Mars where space politics can be dumped

Politics is very much part of NASA, if you would like to try and set up a totalitarian newmars where no space politics is discussed and everyone supports plan-Bush then go ahead and email your ideas to the Mods. However you might want to first paractice what you preach as you yourself have made some political statements concrening European or Russian space policy.

#190 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Space Microwave - Cosmic microwave, Planck & NASA's COBE » 2006-03-20 00:01:50

new results from WMAP reveal polarization signal predicted by the inflation model

very good news 8)

#192 Re: Not So Free Chat » A380 airbus - monster of the skies » 2006-03-19 23:51:54

In Melbourne Australia our major airport has been modified to take the new 380's and we should be seeing our first in October next year-
http://www.asiatraveltips.com/news05/181-Qantas.shtml

That should be great !

#193 Re: Not So Free Chat » Outsourcing America's shipping ports to the Arab world » 2006-03-19 23:49:47

The only thing that would change is the name on the paycheck.

You are very wrong, maybe your NY politicans have done a good job in protecting New-York intrests from the effects of outsourcing but in other parts of America things are less rosy. They are starting more outsourcing of the USA's superhighways and rail-system to Mexican drivers, loaders, etc at the lowest of prices, outsourcing any space exploration to India could also be a costly mistake - perhaps in time all that will be left in the USA are legal people and a huge group of people in politics

#194 Re: Human missions » Outsourcing the VSE and Mars » 2006-03-19 07:57:19

The only guys that want to outsource NASA are ex-Admin O'Keefe and Bush ( who has been in India )

Administrator Griffin is going to fight so he can keep a great skilled workforce and workforce and a great knowledge base
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=19913
Griffin will do his best in retaining and recruiting talented American personnel

#195 Re: Human missions » Is the 'VSE' getting dimmer ? » 2006-03-19 07:40:45

The Vision was very ambitious to begin with - perhaps overly ambitious with too many goals. Some space pioneers and scientists were critical of plan-Bush but then their concerns were dismissed being un-American to criticise Bush or dismissed as political attacks.
The Vision had many goals : Get the Shuttle to return, do a Mars Sample Return, build a CEV, set up Lunar base, finish the ISS, do 'visions missions' like JIMO and TPF, retire Shuttle in 2010, develop the SDLV, mine the Moon, put astronauts on Mars.

#196 Re: Human missions » Is the 'VSE' getting dimmer ? » 2006-03-19 02:22:23

Many Space-fans and Mars advocates have been just waiting for another Knight on a white horse to come and offer us another world like President Kennedy did.
Many other whitehouse-admins talked of the Moon and Mars, but none did anything serious. Then came Bush-Jnr's plan, his 'vision' speech was something of a surprise as the man had never showed much interest in space before then. During the recent union address the phrase "NASA" didn't didn't cross Bush's lips once.


I hope the VSE isn't dimming !


but the evidence is there :

MTO is dead, TPF delayed, NASA has dropped the Methane-Engine from CEV, Shuttle delayed again, MSR looks cut, outrigger Keck telescopes are gone....
I don't think there's a need for me to continue with the list of evidence ?

#198 Re: Unmanned probes » Dawn - Vesta & Ceres orbiter » 2006-03-19 02:05:41

*Cancellation of the DAWN mission is being placed on hold pending review by Mr. Griffin. 

Read me

After all the $, work and effort so far -- c'mon, Mr. Griffin, give us this mission back!

some good news at last !

#199 Re: Human missions » Outsourcing the VSE and Mars » 2006-03-19 01:51:08

Sometimes outsourcing and the private sector can produce positive results
for example SETI the search for alien life
http://www.seti.housenet.org/comm_main.html

However other times outsoucring is very bad
http://www.informationweek.com/news/sho … on=Columns
http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/baldwin/060318

Bush went to India to defend outscourcing and they are already outscouring lunar exploration to New Delhi.
What would be the impact of trying to outsource the VSE and Mars ?

#200 Re: Not So Free Chat » Outsourcing America's shipping ports to the Arab world » 2006-03-18 23:43:07

Selling off the USA to the highest bidder in the name of ultra-capitalism, I think all of this is un-acceptable.

I think it was Singapore not China that controlled over the other ports, they only plus side to this of course is that many Asian nations have a somewhat better reputation that the corrupt Arab-World.

Outsourcing has now hit home, it has been going on for many administrations and it doesn't matter what whitehouse admin started it - what does matter is which adminstration stops it.

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