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#26 Re: Human missions » Unpopularity of space exploration » 2004-06-09 11:47:26

Neoliberalism is a term generally not used in the US.

I might note, reading the above message, that NASA is in significant part a means of redistributing wealth--to large corporations, which benefit from the contracts they get, as you can read for instance in the Wall Street Journal.

The comments about lower taxes are interesting, considering that, as I read in the Financial Times about a recent Gallup Poll, "Cutting taxes was something that only 1 per cent of respondents viewed as a priority".

#27 Re: Human missions » Unpopularity of space exploration » 2004-06-08 20:21:22

Again, I don't really think that the public sentiment is all that far off track. Despite our looking down on the "common moron", the fact is that the standard of living in the US, as measured by wealth accrued per hour, is mostly declining. In such a society it would be very strange if there wasn't a lot of anxiety, and when people start talking about foward leaning projects, the natural reaction is to ask, "Well, what about my children?" You can't blame people for that reaction. The only reason, actually, that it isn't asked about the military, and most importantly the large corporations, which eat up far more money than NASA, is because of people like Bill O'Reilly who will say anything to gain prominence in a media owned by huge corporations. NASA doesn't have those kind of ideological defenses in place, so it is more vulnerable. Support for these other things would doubtless be lower than for NASA if it wasn't for the power they wield.

#29 Re: Terraformation » List of problems for colonization - of planets/moons in solar system » 2004-06-08 11:46:43

I might stress that in all but a few cases (these perhaps being before our technology is advanced enough), terraforming is likely to be irrelevant because it will be much cheaper to colonize places by designing bodies which naturally inhabit them.

Then again, advanced civilizations may carry out such projects for fun wink

#30 Re: Human missions » Unpopularity of space exploration » 2004-06-08 10:17:37

What I'm saying is that what we need to do is reverse the very worrisome trend that has appeared over the last thirty years or so, and keep improving our standard of living. What is happening now is that the standard of living of a tiny minority is increasing very rapidly, while for most it is actually declining, if this is measured by real hourly wages.

It used to be the case that what you were saying was correct, the rich would get richer and poor would get richer. That is roughly the situation in America from WWII to the mid 1970s.

Technology has certainly kept on advancing since that time, and it isn't known, if the current trends keep up, when it will begin to really stagnate. But barring some extreme development, if these trends continue, it must do so at some point. It may well be that these trends will turn around well before that point is reached; but the political realities driving them are still going strong, and looking to get even worse. Perhaps we will find some amazing new technology which will reverse these trends even despite the political situation. IT has been widely praised as such a technology, although it clearly has not had an effect even approaching what would be necessary.

But it is perhaps more likely that given the political realities of our time (do you think that a manned mission to Mars is so likely now?) and the present feelings of the masses, we will have to reverse these trends without such technology if we ever plan on having it.

#31 Re: Human missions » Unpopularity of space exploration » 2004-06-07 20:17:56

I'm not sure if your arguments do make sense, or at least as much sense as most people here think they do. We have to understand that the average hourly wage in the US has been actually declining for most of the last quarter century. World GNP growth in that period has shifted into a very worrisome, slow pattern, which at least in the US would actually be negative if people weren't working longer hours to make up (the bottom 20% has nevertheless lost income anyway). 

Our first priority must be reverse this very worrisome state of affairs, along with the growing threat to survival from nuclear war or ecological catastrophe.

And in my view, the main engines of economic growth in the future will probably include space but also are critically bound up in various kinds of molecular technologies, meaning biotech, nanotech and advanced computing. I don't know if we should be buying into this whole "just reach space and then its paradise" line.

#32 Re: Terraformation » Terraforming Titan - Fate of Methane Atmosphere? » 2004-06-07 15:46:07

It seems to me that it would be a great pity to destroy such unique places when one can engineer forms of consciousness which would thrive in the unmodified enviornment.

#33 Re: Human missions » Long-term irrelevance of human colonization » 2004-06-07 14:20:31

Actually, in science I don't really know what trends have been appearing over the last quarter century or so. From an economic standpoint the trends are very worrying, global GNP growth has slowed down to match periods back in the 19th century. Hopefully this is an aberration; actually I think it is a political matter whether it will be one or not.

#34 Re: Human missions » Long-term irrelevance of human colonization » 2004-06-07 14:18:12

Well, by relevancy I mean in a position to explore things that consciousness has not already explored, or do things, etc. To be on the cutting edge, so to speak.

One might note that humans are now the 'relevant' species on this planet, that position no longer being held by apes, who do dwell in their place. I think any future post humans will probably exceed present humans on a similar scale.

#35 Re: Human missions » Long-term irrelevance of human colonization » 2004-06-07 14:08:55

It isn't known how far off post-human creatures may be. I tend to think fifty to a hundred years is a reasonable projection, barring some disaster or even self-annihalation, which is possible. It is reasonable to suggest that in a hundred years humans as they exist today will be largely irrelevant in terms of doing anything new.

One has to remember that we have probably come farther during this century, measured in any number of ways, than in the whole millenium before that. We advanced more in life expectancy, at least in the rich industrialized nations, than during the entire history the species before that.

There are some worrying trends, notably the global economic slowdown following the mid to late-1970s, and an increasingly dangerous international situation, which could lead to a disaster: that is true.

I would suggest that the most efficient way to propagate intelligence throughout the universe would be to send a tiny probe which can produce bodies capable of being animated by intelligence, and then to relay a consciousness from the mother star over radio (or alternatively, produce a new one, which might be more exciting and rewarding).

#37 Re: Human missions » Long-term irrelevance of human colonization » 2004-06-07 12:10:55

Its logical that when we have the technological capability to do so, consciousness' will transfer themselves between different bodies. There is no need to travel in one particular body when you can transit your consciousness over radio and be downloaded into a waiting body somewhere else. The stars will not be colonized by humans in spaceships.

There will doubtless be at least some people, in all the billions who are now alive, who will reject such transformations; but they will be left, inevitably, hopelessly far behind.

#38 Re: Human missions » Unpopularity of space exploration » 2004-06-06 22:45:39

It occurs to me that the chief reason for the apparent unpopularity of large space initiatives at the present time is that people are afraid for their material security. Per hour wages in the US have been mostly falling since the late 1970s. The healthcare system is the most inefficient in the industrialized world, and the only one that leaves substantial portions of the population without coverage. Unions have been crushed, with workplace organization dropping by about two thirds since WWII. Organization in the non-public sectors is back to pre-New Deal levels. Meanwhile 1% of the population owns 40% of the wealth, up from 20% a quarter century or so ago.

People will be less timid about sacrificing money to what are percieved as hugely expensive ventures if they are not forced to live in constant fear by an oppressive system.

#39 Re: Human missions » Long-term irrelevance of human colonization » 2004-06-06 22:36:08

It occurs to me that colonization of places beyond Earth by unmodified humans will eventually become largely irrelevant, as will terraformation, because there is no need for any of this when you can colonize these places with far more versatile intelligences, probably, I am assuming, ones which can transmit themselves between various bodies. Mars may be an exception to the rule because it is so close to Earth that we might colonize it before self modification gets into full swing; but in the long run this has to be true. I doubt it will fail to materialize by the end of one century, barring some disaster.

#40 Re: Human missions » Bush's Mars Plan - A quick evaluation » 2004-01-19 01:53:04

I think with regards to Bush's plan, this article is worth looking at:

[http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0, … 37,00.html]http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0, … 37,00.html

I think McCurdy is, at least, worth paying some attention.

#41 Re: Human missions » Bush's Mars Plan - A quick evaluation » 2004-01-18 20:24:09

One of the first thing that strikes you in the face when you look at Bush's Mars plan is that everything it proposes happens at least five years into the future, that is, after Bush will be out of office. That should raise immediate skepticism as to whether this is a serious plan or not. When Kennedy proposed putting men on the Moon, they didn't wait around five years sitting about the table before doing anything.

The second thing we should consider comes into play if we assume somebody makes a serious attempt to implement this plan. Clearly, the plan is a huge corporate welfare ("pork") bonanza. It will likely cost at least a few hundred billion dollars. Yet the timetable for the plan is one that clearly indicates there is going to be a lot of waste--because the only reason for such long time tables is to meter out a steady source of support for industry and big corporations. So we should understand that if this is implemented, there is definitely going to be a huge amount of waste, probably at least as large a proportion as has been wasted with the ISS and the Shuttle.

Finally, with that understanding, we should be skeptical that this plan will actually produce serious results. I don't want to say it couldn't--after all, the Shuttle and ISS have, incredibly wasteful though they have been, at least have produced something.

In summary, this is a plan that will probably produce at best mediocre and, at worst, disasterous results, and which will cost a tremendous amount of money regardless.

#42 Re: Civilization and Culture » Why anarchy must fail - There will alway be leet » 2003-08-20 19:23:50

prome is right regarding the people in our society. It is basically governed, in the final sense, by a small "core" of individuals. When only 50% of the electorate even votes, much less has a deep committment to some kind of political ideal, there is something definitely wrong with the society. What would a really democratic society look like? Well, the most democratic modern forms that I've ever heard of are the Israeli kibbutzim. In most of those, you had about half of the relevant electorate show up for voting on every issue. That's very interesting, and I think this kind of real democracy is something we should strive towards.

You're also right to say that there isn't a clear line between government and business. That's because the more wealth a person accumulates, the more they inevitably tend to infringe on the liberty of other people. That's just inherent to the concept of having a small few make the decisions about wealth that affects a much greater many. Those few by definition have the power in the society. Mussolini actually said "Fascism may as well be called corporatism because it represents the merger of state and corporate power". He was right.

Anyway, regarding anarchism, as far as I understand it, anarchism is the idea that you can reach a state in society where there isn't a need for an organization which keeps people from hurting eachother, because people have no impluse to do that. It's definitely true that, at least in some places, a society like that is attainable. We know this because it has been attained ; there have been small communities where people lived communally and there was essentially no crime. Everybody knew eachother and everybody was basically friendly and human toward eachother. Whether this can be attained without grouping people into small communities is unknown ; I don't know if it has ever been done before. There are basic structures that we assume would have to put in place to allow that to occur, and there are some instances that I know of where such structures were put into place, like in some parts of Spain in 1936, in the big cities even. They were basically egalitarian arrangements. However, given that this experiment in egalitarianism was destroyed with help from all the major world powers (USSR, Nazi Germany, USA) it isn't really possible to say, as far as I can see, with too much certainty what the "final" outcome would have been had the experiment been given a decade or so to mature. There are others, too, though that's probably the best one.

Whatever the outcome, I think it is pretty much certain to make a better world if we get rid of totalitarian arrangements in society, like the ones that exist inside corporations, and replace them with free, democratic ones.

#43 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Crisis on Mars - Ouch » 2003-08-20 18:43:46

It's always possible that if you have an independent body of people, they can become an enemy. You can either accept the possibility of that, or you can try to enslave them to make sure it doesn't happen. Basically I concur with Josh.

#44 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » The Succession of Empires - Mars will trump the U.S. » 2003-08-11 20:54:12

In my view, any attempt to predict the future on an issue like this is a futile endevour. The idea of a "succession of empires" breaks down to mean simply that one empire died out and after a while another one arose, etc. That's not a pattern, any more than throwing random dice and then finding that your dice doesn't always give the same number is a pattern. In economics people like to play wizard too. So you'll see stuff about 50 year "Kondratieff cycles" in which global growth rises and falls. They just pick the model to fit the data. When the data no longer fits they just pick another model. Etc. It's all fraud, ultimately.

On a side note, our "liberation" of the Afghan people has left more poverty, chaos and destruction than beforehand. The "government" of Afghanistan controls little more than the capital city of the country. The rest is ruled by warlords, drug trafficers and other nice guys.

In Iraq it is difficult to predict what the situation will ultimately turn out like. There are many factors to consider. However I think we can be sure that if US hegemony is continued, then the wealth of the country will flow one way or another to the US and its British client. The Iraqis are already beginning a gurriella war against the invaders, with unknown consequences in the long run.

Finally we might note that the recent invasions and atrocities by the US probably to some extent derive from the fact that US hegemony over the rest of the world had slowly been decreasing formely. In part, I think this is a desperate attempt to reverse the trend.

#45 Re: Planetary transportation » Nuclear Suit » 2003-06-13 14:14:11

I have an idea. Lets build a nuclear suit. We can all carry around nuclear reactors on our backs, so that if we run out of power we have a convenient spare.

#46 Re: Not So Free Chat » Why does U.S.A. support Israel? - Finally, I'm Asking » 2003-06-12 19:57:33

If we were gods and knew everything, then it would be ok to say to someone "You are not doing what you should be doing, therefore you will starve". However, in the real world, we are not gods, and for someone to starve because they are not obeying the orders of someone else is intolerable. Perhaps the person is right in what they are doing ; it could be. Why should they be forced to obey another?

And lest you reply with something like "but they must also support themselves", it ought to be noted that many people do things for a living which have no clear role in furthering human survival. If everyone grew what they ate, and built their own houses, and wrote their own books and so on, the situation would be rather different.

Furthermore, since in our society most of the relevant wealth is concentrated in the hands of a small elite (1% of the US population owns 40% of the wealth, though the share of wealth which they control that is relevant to employment, ie in the form of enterprises, is doubtless much higher) they end up commanding everyone else in exchange for survival, hardly a just arrangement.

#47 Re: Not So Free Chat » Why does U.S.A. support Israel? - Finally, I'm Asking » 2003-06-12 01:19:49

Stealing bread while starving IS a crime. The excuse does not matter, theft is theft. Sometimes a hunger pain in the belly is the only thing that can get a deadbeat to get off his ass and get to work

While I do agree with many of the things you have said in the this discussion, this comment certainly is not one of them. Actually I find it to be disgusting. The idea that someone ought to have to take orders from someone else ("get off his ass and work") in order to survive should, I think, be seen as monstrous.

#48 Re: Not So Free Chat » Why does U.S.A. support Israel? - Finally, I'm Asking » 2003-06-11 15:53:20

The Israel-Palestine conflict is not something I know too much about, but looking over this post I do want to say a few words regarding the West and the Middle East. The West has consistently engaged in imperial actions there, to further its own profit. It is pretty clear to me just from the basic outlines of the situation that support for Israel is just part of this basic imperial style. Israel is clearly the party which is acting most tyrannically in the conflict, because Israel is occupying territory in violation of international law and UN resolutions, and is attempting a policy of ethnic cleansing and colonization by using terror to gradually excorcise the Palestinians from the region. Some Israelis on the right talk openly about "transfer", that is, forcibly removing the Palestinians as a bloc from the land that Israel has conquered. The situation resembles in some ways the US colonization of the Western US and the genocide which was a part of it. Any discussion about atrocities committed by Palestinians must be understood in this imperial framework. Israel is by far the most powerful country, and indeed, as Clark has noted, it is capable of much more destruction than it has already perpetrated, including that of the nuclear type. If the Arab countries ever banded together and launched a successful invasion of Israel, Israel would doubtless launch nuclear weapons, with devestating effects on the region. This situation alone, forgetting all the other ones, makes a complete mockery of any US concern for "weapons of mass destruction". The US supports Israel to the tune of $3 billion per year, over a third of the US foreign aid budget.

#49 Re: Not So Free Chat » President Bush - Great pres or bad pres ? » 2003-06-09 14:16:08

The media reported on the Clinton thing because it wasn't important. Stuff which is important, meaning crimes which actually have some bearing, are not reported because they are perpetrated on the weak, and in the eyes of the media, judging by coverage, the weak are not people.

As for the WMD, the UN inspectors may not have reported anything for numerous reasons, including that it may well all have been destroyed by the time they went in, as Hussien had claimed.

#50 Re: Not So Free Chat » President Bush - Great pres or bad pres ? » 2003-06-08 23:42:10

We know Iraq had WMD more than a decade ago (we supplied some of it), but they claimed they destroyed it after Gulf War I and there is no evidence anybody has ever found which refutes this claim. Anyway numerous sources have stated that even if they didn't destroy it, the vast majority of it would have degraded by now.

As for Bush, they may "fool themselves", in the same way that Hitler "fooled himself" when he invaded Poland, but given that the "fooling" was done with a total lack of evidence (in Bush's case, evidence that Iraq had WMD and was about to attack the US, in Hitler's, that Poland was about to attack Germany) and with very clear external motives...

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