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#226 Re: Unmanned probes » How Long To Get An Unmanned Probe to 1000 to 2200 AU? » 2005-12-23 14:34:08

My next question is................why isn't NASA seriously proposing this?

It doesn't sound like a budget buster to me. 

And why spend money on space telescopes like the Terrestial Planet Finder or Inferometer or whatever its called when a probe that could take advantage of gravitational lenses would be much more effective?

It isn't a budget buster, and there's lots of things we'd like to know about that region of space.  However, I don't blame NASA for the absence of a 1000+ AU gravitational lens telescope. 

IMHO, there are problems with the idea.  There's the various human-created problems of actually getting three or four RTG stacks to orbit.  Then, there's the fact that a lot of alternatives (Terrestrial Planet Finder, etc.) could both be ready sooner and have equivalent resolution.   

Yes, equivalent resolution, and cheaper, too.  A 1000+AU Grav Lens scope could have magnification that was literally out of this solar system, but for a single probe its effective "lens" would only be a few times wider than the sun as viewed from 1000+ AU.  I could maybe see it's superiority for observing in gamma rays, neutrinos or something that modern materials science can't yet make a better scope for, but not for optical or radio observations.  Getting a larger effective lens would require sending more probes, and you might as well do that close to home. 

Very long baseline interferometers would benefit from the extreme distances involved, but they don't have to be that extreme.  And anyway, you couldn't use it for extending a gravitational lens baseline because the scope on the other end from the probe either wouldn't have the benefit of the gravitational lens or would be looking in a different direction.

#227 Re: Unmanned probes » How Long To Get An Unmanned Probe to 1000 to 2200 AU? » 2005-12-22 14:44:30

I'll look forward to replies from the Brainiacs here.

Not much of a challenge, really.  *sniff*

( lol )

A probe like that could be built using modern technology.  The main design problem isn't the distance but rather the speed required, so it'd need something like an ion drive to get the needed escape velocities for Earth and the Sun (about 3.2 km/s and 11.5 km/s, respectively), then put on the velocity needed to reach 1000+ AU in a reasonable time.  I think about 3.5 km/s should do it, but that's just a personal preference based on how long I want to wait for the probe to arrive.  (This could be done at less than escape velocity, but not in less than a decade.)

All told, that's about 18.2 km/s delta-v.  A 500 kg probe with an exhaust velocity of 20 km/s could do that using about 750 kg fuel.  (There would, of course, be no fuel to stop upon arrival.)

Running on about 600 Watts, that probe could manage an average thrust of 0.04 N.  The probe's acceleration would be so small that by the time it finished accelerating to 18.2 km/s, it would nearly be at 1000 AU.  However, with continuous operation, that's all it would take to complete the trip in about 10 years.  The bulk of the distance would be covered in the last three years, after escape velocity is exceeded, and the probe would reach 2200 AU in only a year and a half after that.

600W for 10 years isn't too much to ask from a set of four RTG stacks just like the one flying on the Cassini probe right now.  The rest of the probe would have to hold together for that long, too, though.  It's a tall order, but not impossible, and no advanced nuclear propulsion or even particularly new developments would be required.

#228 Re: Unmanned probes » Hayabusa - JAXA asteroid rendezvous and sample return » 2005-12-10 09:52:31

Hayabusa is still limping home.  If it makes it, that would still be something, and we don't yet know that it did not successfully collect a sample. 

I will cross my fingers and wait.   neutral

#229 Re: Not So Free Chat » Greetings, Dr. Bell » 2005-11-30 11:43:57

I liked the article because...he's right.

If a thousand clones of Jeff Bell typed on a thousand terminals, they might - over time - generate a coherent critique between them.

Dr. Bell may have a point, and it grates on me to think that this point has been made about us (citing me to make it).  But we must realize: Dr. Bell has no interest in doing anything about that.  In fact, what little I know about him suggests that it would tickle him pink to make it worse. 

I noticed there were no real solutions proposed in his essay.  So, perhaps we should propose some? 

For example, I noticed the educational outreach section of the New Mars Forum was a little rusty.  Perhaps we could start using that resource for our own members?  I've also been neglecting the New Mars Wiki.

#230 Re: Not So Free Chat » Greetings, Dr. Bell » 2005-11-29 16:09:47

growing kook factor?!

lol

I'm reminded of a fable:

There once was a lady who was so rich that she had never needed to learn how to do any housework.  Then one day, her enemies had all her servants jailed, and the rich lady had no one to keep her home.

Her enemies came to her as she lay crying on her polished marble steps, and asked, "What's wrong with you?  Why are you whining?"

She told them, and they replied, "You are too rich!  Soft living has made you lazy and stupid.  Give us all of your money, and hard knocks will soon teach you to take care of your family like you should have."  And they left her to bemoan her fate.

Afterward, the village washerwoman, a simpleton, happened by and saw the rich lady weeping.  "What's wrong?" the washerwoman asked.  "Why are you crying?"

The rich lady told her.  The washerwoman was dull and slow of wit, and knew nothing of servants or being rich, but she said "Come with me," and took the rich woman to her humble home.  There, she taught the rich woman how to clean a small room, how to cook a simple meal, and how to wash the clothes of an entire village. 

The rich lady then went home and took care of her family until her servants were released.  Afterward, she went into business with her new friend the washerwoman and made so much more money that now the washerwoman didn't need to do any housework either.  Then she inherited still more money.  Her enemies all died of envy and related diseases, and she lived a happy and prosperous life until the end of her days. 

And the moral is:

Even if any passing moron can solve your problem, spiteful advice will not.

I don't know why Dr. Bell's essay and the ensuing responses reminded me of that.  Perhaps it's because they elucidated the problem so clearly?

#231 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Earth Atmospherics/Weather » 2005-11-29 15:30:33

Now we have tropical storm Epsilon.  Apparently, nobody told Mother Nature that the Atlantic hurricane season officially ends tomorrow.

#232 Re: Not So Free Chat » Greetings, Dr. Bell » 2005-11-28 20:26:31

His ad hominem argument cited a thread about JP Aerospace that I once took part in.  Gee... I feel kinda bad now about that crew farts quip.   :oops: 

Still, I must concede the anecdotes he cited are very real.  If he was expecting a peer reviewed online journal, I can understand why he was disappointed, but most space advocacy forums do actually claim to have a common interest in technical matters.  I've often wondered how the contents of the New Mars and other forums measure up in terms of relevance and focus.  There are actual methods of assessing the question.  Since Dr. Bell is clearly ignorant of such matters (his essay is just a collection of anecdotes and generalizations), perhaps we should get around to using them?  More importantly than strengthening our case, that information might strengthen us.

(And for your information, I prefer "Zubrin-American", thank you.)

#233 Re: Planetary transportation » Quadracycles » 2005-11-28 08:19:14

I thought 3 wheel atv's rolled easier.

Yes, the kill rate for three wheelers was particularly high.  I've never spoken with a hunter who didn't prefer the 4-wheeled ATV's over 3-wheelers.  They tend to be more stable, handle rougher terrain, and haul more.  Their greater weight makes them a better workhorse vehicle, too.  (You can't put a winch on a 3-wheeler.)

There's no reason some of those advantages wouldn't carry over to a pedal powered bike.

#234 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Earth Atmospherics/Weather » 2005-11-19 10:52:04

Tropical Storm Gamma

It's fashionably late, barely tropical storm strength, and is expected to fade back to a tropical depression in a few days.  But it should hold together just long enough to drench Cuba and the Florida Keys again.

Egad.

#235 Re: Unmanned probes » Hayabusa - JAXA asteroid rendezvous and sample return » 2005-11-15 13:28:45

:shock: MINERVA! NNOOOOOoooooooooooooooo.....  !   

As I understand it, though, Huyabusa still has another shot - the sample return.  I hope they are successful.

#236 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Earth Atmospherics/Weather » 2005-11-15 13:15:05

Tropical storm Gamma predicted by this time tomorrow.

I wish this were a movie, too. sad

#237 Re: Unmanned probes » Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) » 2005-11-15 09:15:35

Look at this panoramic camera shot from sol 642.  It looks like dried flakes of something on the next outcrop over.  There also appear to be traces of similar material under the dune on the right side in the panoramic camera shot taken to the left.  The deposit reaching under the dune doesn't appear to have curled, though.   

My guess is that these deposits are the remains of a layer running underneath the surrounding dunes, but if so, it would be something easily weathered to be worn away at the dune edge and leave only traces here and there on the rock face. 

Of course, there's always the chance that the large deposit is also newly deposited.    :idea:  I think Opportunity should roll over and have a look.

#238 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Falcon 1 & Falcon 9 » 2005-11-08 13:35:32

When NASA is axed as part of the current administration's self-immolation, the AltSpacers will be able to hire NASA's best and brightest for 50 cents on the dollar, which should speed things right along  smile
_

One of the great myths of the modern age is that everyone on the government payroll is personally overpaid.

I'm not sure I'd work for someone paying half of what NASA offers for the same job.

#239 Re: Mars Analogue Research Stations » Do your own research for the cause! - What have you done for Mars Lately? » 2005-11-07 18:58:34

It occured to me while staring at the piles of clutter collected on various crap catchers around my home that their time averaged behaviors display many of the properties of liquid slurries, including equalization, viscosity, pressure, and bouyancy. 

I wonder: Can the piled up books, tools and other non-food items spilling off of my kitchen table be modelled as a non-newtonian fluid?  Does that pile of bills on the end table obey the law of fluid continuity?  Perhaps the jumble of old receipts on my dresser could be accurately submitted to control volume analysis?

#240 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Mars Had Plate Tectonics » 2005-11-04 15:56:46

Not sure where to put this, but this looked as good a place as any.

Mars had plate tectonics

According to this article, Mars appears to have had more Earth-like plate tectonics early in its history, and may still.  Old explanations for evidence of polar wandering that suggest its entire crust moved as one piece are probably false.  I also saw an article in Discover magazine suggesting that Valles Marineris occurs at a plate boundary - like the Marianas Trench here on Earth, although Valles Marineris appears too close to the edge of the data collection area to tell for certain using their map alone. 

If true, that would require no catastrophic flooding for the initial formation of Valles Marineris, only later shaping by water.  It would also have profound implications for the distribution of mineral deposits.

#242 Re: Unmanned probes » Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) » 2005-11-03 12:14:51

I'm discovering that I hate MER auto-mode...

Opportunity is currently experiencing a sand-storm, which got so bad a few days ago that it delayed its automatic powerup and put the rover in safe mode.  Apparently, that means no new pictures for the next few days, even though the rover is presently out of safe mode and transmitting data.  NASA's got the pictures - they're just not posting properly here on earth.

It looks like a hardware glitch on Mars is foiling NASA's web server millions of miles away.  Forget any minor inconveniences: That's just science fiction amazing.   8)

I do fear that events like this will become more and more common as the rovers begin to wear out, though.

#243 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Laser beamed power question » 2005-11-02 09:18:57

I understand how an atmosphere causes laser beam dispersal (widening of an initially narrow beam), but what causes beam dispersal in a vacuum?  Is it possible to prevent with clever optics?
_

Saddly, no, because one of the main causes of attenuation in air remains in space: spreading of the beam area (dispersal).  Clever optics can reduce this dramatically, but the coherence length of the laser (a measure of how "clean" the light entering the optics is to begin with) limits the effectiveness of any optics used.  No laser has an infinite coherence length, so even a dramatic reduction in dispersal still can't stop spreading at planet-scale distances.

There will always come a point at which you get better transmission by stepping up the laser's power than by fiddling with its optics.

#244 Re: Planetary transportation » Hydrogen Car Powered by Expansion of Liquid H2 » 2005-11-01 14:34:30

Cindy started this topic at about this time last year. 

Compressed gas & liquified gas pneumatic motors are a good idea for vehicle power.  I'm not sure about the wisdom of holding out for exotic liquid hydrogen when you can just use the ambient air as your working fluid, though.

#245 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potlock I » 2005-10-25 12:59:14

Iraqi constitution passes

Well, I was right for once.  How about that Law of Averages!

#246 Re: Human missions » ISRU Fiberglass? » 2005-10-19 08:46:13

Given the amount of methane and the mass of the equipment needed to convert it to plastics, it would be simpler to just skip it and send tanks of two-part epoxy instead.  I'd suggest just sending rolls of prefabricated fiberglass cloth at first, too - save the smelters for later.  And as for vacuum vapor deposition, I'd skip that, too - it requires a carrier gas, which would also have to be manufactured or shipped in.  VVD and fuel-to-epoxy conversion are unnecessary.  IMHO, garden variety sintering is just fine for lunar fibrglass.

A Mars mission wouldn't have the same conditions, though, and all the raw materials needed to make epoxy (or some other resin) are already there right along with the silica and magnesium needed to make fiberglass.  There, conventional resins make more sense than VVD and sintering. 

Sending equipment for ISRU fiberglass production is a workable proposition for both Mars and the moon, as long as we don't send the same equipment to both places.

#247 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Earth Atmospherics/Weather » 2005-09-19 19:28:30

*Oh lord...here comes Rita:

...

rough projections of its track raised the possibility that the Louisiana coast could be targeted less than a month after Hurricane Katrina devastated the area.

...

About half the weather models have my section of the Gulf Coast in the crosshairs now. 

I will be retiring to my father-in-law's fishing camp up north this weekend.  Rita can come ashore without me.

#248 Re: Not So Free Chat » Katrina and New Orleans » 2005-09-18 14:23:53

I wish I could see the article. So this would stop New Orleans from sinking and decrease the storm serge?

Oh, sorry - link's bad.  Robert Dyck posted a working version. (Thanks, Robert.)

This plan probably would not stop land subsidence in New Orleans, but could decrease storm surge over time by building up new land between New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico as a buffer zone. 

When I posted earlier that New Orleans was expected to be a coastal city in fifty years, that was not an exaggeration.  It is, if anything, a conservative figure.  Land subsidence south of New Orleans is proceeding at such a rate that new maps are desperately needed because maps of the area surveyed earlier than 1980 are no longer remotely accurate.

#249 Re: Not So Free Chat » Katrina and New Orleans » 2005-09-17 14:39:54

Levee reconstruction's Big Sister

Coast 2050 is the current plan proposed by the US Army Corps of Engineers for restoring the barrier of coastal wetlands south of New Orleans.  A quick survey of the area in question using both the road map and satellite photo functions of Google Maps for comparison (the photos are recent, the map was accurate thirty years ago) suggests there's currently nothing to restore, but the Mississippi can dump enough silt to take care of that.  Basically, they want to build up a plot of land the size of New Orleans, then keep going.

Coast 2050 is not exactly turning the Mississippi loose and letting it be a river again, but it's close.  I say, go to town.   8)

#250 Re: Not So Free Chat » Katrina and New Orleans » 2005-09-16 13:00:43

I wonder what the opinion will be when New Orleans sinks again in a couple of years.

What do you mean, "in a couple of years"?  It's still sinking now!   tongue   

And really, although I attend a Mardi Gras parade at least every couple of years, I've never been fool enough to go to New Orleans to do it.   :?  It's not the male-to-female ratio that dissuaded me (although Josh is right about that by all accounts).  The drunk-to-sober ratio and the tourist-to-local ratio were far more influential. 

Besides, a bunch of drunk yankees doesn't hold a candle to a passel of cajuns with horses and live chickens.  They can have their Mardi Gras parade, and the rest of Louisiana will have ours.

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