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#1 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Starship repurposed to make or build what we need » Today 12:22:18

Seamless steel tubing generally offers superior strength-to-weight, as compared to rebar, so we should consider sending and using a machine to make tubing vs rebar to economize on material consumption required to build pressurized habitation volume.  A tube is not stronger than a solid rod with the same external dimensions, but it is stiffer (more resistant to deformation under load) for the same mass, so tubes provide more material to satisfy a given strength and stiffness requirement than solid rods (rebar).  So that ductility is not lost when cold soaked in the mildly cryogenic Martian night time temperatures, we will have to forego stronger grades of stainless in favor of austenitic stainless steels.  Starships are already made from austenitic stainless steel alloys, so this is not a sourcing problem.

Austenitic steels do not "dramatically strengthen" when exposed to thermal processes used to heat treat (harden / strengthen) steels with different grain structures, such as martensitic steels.  This makes them much softer and weaker than hardenable steels at room temperature, but they also do not become excessively brittle when exposed to extreme cold.  All steels become much stronger at very cold temperatures, to include austenitic steels, but unlike martensitic steels, for example, austenitic steels do not become so strong and hard as to behave more like a brittle ceramic than a ductile metal like low Carbon steel at room temperature.

In steels, strength and hardness are linked together, meaning you do not get one mechanical property change without the other.  You can surface vs through harden the steel, though.  The excessive hardness, not the significant increase in tensile strength associated with heat treatment or exposure to cryogenic temperatures, is the problem.   The austenitic 304L stainless is nominally a 28ksi Yield Strength material at room temperature, but chill it down to Martian night time temperatures and it becomes more like 100-150ksi.  This tensile strength improvement also makes the steel harder, but comes at the cost of ductility and toughness.  A hardenable martensitic steel like 300M (typically used in aircraft landing gear) starts out at 200ksi+ Yield Strength at room temperature.  Thermal soak 300M to Martian night time temperatures and tensile strength becomes something stupidly high, in the range of 300-500ksi.  If improved tensile strength was the only mechanical property change, then nobody would ever use austenitic steels for cryogenic propellant tanks.  The problem is that the dramatic increase in tensile strength is accompanied by an equally dramatic increase in hardness that makes 300M behave less like steel and more like a ceramic when subjected to an impact loading.  Very hard materials do not easily deform and then spring back into shape.  When a steel as hard as 300M already is at room temperature, is accidentally struck by a rock after being cooled to mildly cryogenic temperatures, it will likely fracture or shatter like a ceramic pot.

We see this same behavior exhibited by very hard armor steels and high yield ship building steels at Earth-normal temperatures.  When the material is struck after exposure to arctic-like temperatures, it can fracture or shatter, especially near weld lines.  Ice breakers use special grades of steel in their hulls that do not become quite as strong and hard when cold soaked.  The modified steel grain structure won't be as strong and hard at room temperature as "normal" ship building steels a result, but increased strength and hardness at lower temperatures partially compensates.  When that is not enough, thicker hull plating is used when colder service temperatures alone do not imbue the steel hull plating with insufficient tensile strength and hardness to meet the structural requirements for the ship's hull.  Ordinarily, ice breakers use thicker hull plating by default to enable them to strike and break-up surface sea ice so that commercial ships fabricated from lower cost Carbon steels can then transit arctic waters without substantial hull reinforcement and using more expensive grades of slightly weaker specialty steels.

On Mars, we have no real choice but to accept cold soaking at night, which means we need austenitic steels for construction.  However, we could thermally regulate the steel tubing structure's temperature by filling it with liquid CO2 and using it as part of the colony's habitat thermal regulation radiator system.  This is just an example, since the strengthening and hardening of any steel alloy is not a straight line as service temperature decreases.  However, if keeping the LCO2 inside the structural tubing at a "balmy" -50F vs -100F, also managed to keep the 304L's yield strength in the 65-75ksi range, then it becomes a "more ideal" structural steel that retains greater ductility.  65ksi is about the same as annealed 4130 chrome-moly tubing used in aircraft construction, so obtaining the associated tensile strength and hardness "bump" over 304L's room temperature mechanical properties would make it very suitable for construction purposes.  There's obviously a non-zero risk of a CO2 leak inside the habitat dome from using the structure this way, so other engineering considerations must be taken into account.  Still, it's an interesting idea with the potential to reduce material consumption while creating a lighter but stronger structure using what is otherwise a "weak" structural steel.  Perhaps it's only a suitable structural reinforcement and material economization concept for greenhouses used to grow food for the colony.  This was a "work with what you got" vs "work with what you wished you had" idea, and maybe it won't work at all for any number of technical reasons.

#2 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Starship repurposed to make or build what we need » Today 01:33:58

If we provide 125m^3 of pressurized volume for each family of 4, then we need approximately 10 Super Domes worth of pressurized volume to house a million people.  Domes tend to have a lot of unusable space, though.  What about a ring?

#3 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-12 13:00:02

RobertDyck,

Find the detailed technical specs of radar "RCA Astra-1".
...
So much time has passed that RCA Astra-1 should be declassified by now, but a quick Google does not reveal details.
...
Report back when you find specs for RCA Astra-1.

You're the one making claims about a system that never once flew aboard the Arrow, so do that yourself.  If you can't find anything, then all you have left is pure belief-driven speculation.

I completely disregard your entire argument.

I've provided independently verifiable facts and evidence based upon publicly released historical data.  Every assertion you've made thus far has been refuted by available evidence.  Whether or not history offends your sensibilities is not my concern.

The basis of my last post is, nobody had a functional BVR missile and fire control system in 1958, therefore your claims about how good Arrow / Astra / Sparrow could've been are emotionally-driven and evidence-free.  Your feelings towards the Arrow override your ability to do basic math, recognize faults in your logic, admit when historical evidence disagrees with your assertions, and view the Arrow program as the developmental failure that it would've become, had Canada pursued it to the point of complete failure.

America did pursue a Mach 3 interceptor to the point of complete program failure.  YF-12A was a true Mach 3 interceptor by recorded flight speed data, but was never an operational system specifically because its radar and missile technologies were far too immature.  All the same radio electronics companies were involved in the development of Astra, ASG-18, and GAR-9 / AIM-47 programs.  What should a rational and logical person make of that?

SN 60-6935, the only surviving YF-12A, was flown to the National Museum of the United States Air Force at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, 17 November, 1979.

My take is that the tech simply wasn't ready for operational use, and no amount of speculative belief will ever change that.  It just barely worked when maintenance time was irrelevant and every test was scripted to the last detail.  When the AIM-54A was used in more realistic tests 10 to 20 years later, the significant limitations of missiles using tube-based radar electronics were plainly evident to all involved.  This may not sit well with F-14 and Phoenix missile enthusiasts, either, but that was ugly operational reality.  When such weapons did work under combat-like conditions, they never hit their assigned targets more than 50% of the time.  If you fired a pair of Phoenix missiles at a target, then you'd get a kill more often than not.  Unless you're here to claim that 1950s tube-based electronics were more reliable and functional than the mostly solid state AWG-9 and AIM-54A, then any counter-factual line of argumentation is pointless.

I cannot find any recorded historical evidence that RCA's Astra-1 ever flew aboard a test aircraft, so any claims about what it could achieve do not appear to be based upon recorded test results.  RCA lost the ASG-18 contract to Hughes in the spring of 1957 for lack of progress.  Arrow enthusiasts would have picked up on this and added it to their Arrow lore if it did.

The MA-1 radar and fire control system, which was installed on every production F-106 airframe, weighed in at 2,520lbs.  It could lock-up a B-52 at about 40 miles, subsequently extended to about 69 miles following electronics upgrades that came many years later.  In clear skies, the IRST system had a longer tracking range than the radar ever did, and was used as secondary confirmation against radar-located targets.

I can tell you that back in America, Sperry was replaced by RCA in 1956, then RCA was replaced by Hughes in 1957.  RCA was replaced in 1957 because their radar could not meet radar detection range targets of 100+ miles and insufficient progress was made for continued funding.  Why it is that the RCAF thought they eventually would is beyond my understanding.  Hughes was finally able to hit their contractually obligated radar detection range targets.  Development work continued until 1966 when the F-12B was canceled by the USAF.  In short, nothing remotely approaching a "ready-to-use" radar and fire control system existed until long after the Arrow was cancelled.  ASG-18 was designed to fit inside a 40 inch diameter nose, which both the Arrow and YF-12A shared, and both employed a weapons system officer to operate their radar / fire control equipment and launch missiles.  The ASG-18 radar alone weighed 2,100lbs.  As with RCA, Hughes also posted significantly greater theoretical detection and tracking distances, but in operational practice it could lock-up bomber-sized target around 100 miles- same max range as the missiles it was paired with.

Edit:
I should have stated that the ASG-18's 40 inch diameter radar dish was designed to fit in the Arrow and YF-12A nose.  ASG-18 and GAR-9 were first tested aboard a modified B-58 Hustler, and subsequently installed in the YF-12A.  There was some talk of putting ASG-18s in F-4s after the F-12B was canceled, but the largest diameter dish for radars installed in F-4s were the 32-inch dishes associated with the APQ-72 and later partially (AWG-10) or fully digital (AWG-14) equipment.  I don't think a 40 inch dish would fit in the F-4's nose without significant modification and aerodynamic penalties.  AWG-9 radars fitted to F-14s had 36 inch diameter dishes.  I remember seeing those aboard the carriers I served aboard.  AWG-9 was the most powerful radar fitted to an American fighter aircraft until the F-22's APG-77 entered service around 2005, but APG-71 radars fitted to F-15s were likely even more capable, not due to peak power output, but vastly improved digital signal processing capabilities.  I do know that AWG-9 was about 15X more capable of volume search than the most capable F-4 radars.

MTBF for many thousands of discrete electronic components was about 150 hours, so constant maintenance in operation was a near-guarantee.  IIRC, certain radar components required liquid cooling systems, same as the AIM-54A.  From what I understood, the specialized thermal batteries and liquid cooling systems were what limited availability and reliability of Iranian purchased F-14s and AIM-54As.

My pure speculation is that had the advanced flight control features of the Arrow and ASG-18 become part of an operational system, total system weight would fall somewhere between 2,500-3,000lbs.  That means every bit of the engine mass savings provided by the Iroquois engines would've been consumed by the new digital fly-by-wire flight control system, radar, and fire control systems.  Worse than that, AIM-47 was about twice as heavy as Sparrow II, so Arrow would've carried 2 of those missiles at most to remain at MTOW with full internal fuel.  If AIM-54A performance was any indication, that means each Arrow could nominally shoot down a single bomber under combat conditions when equipped with 2X AIM-47A missiles.  If Arrow was equipped with 3X AIM-7E, which also didn't exist until many years later, then it could statistically shoot down zero bombers.  If equipped with 6X AIM-7E, then Pk = 0.48, so perhaps every other Arrow would manage to kill one bomber after a pair of Arrows expended 6-9 missiles per bomber, or maybe not.

Is that really what you wanted to bet the continued existence of your cities on?

America "bet", if you will, that we could build enough early warning radars with integrated GCI for use in conjunction with simplified interceptors to close to within visual range of a bomber and shoot them down using heat-seeking missiles, rockets with small nuclear warheads, or cannon fire, because that was the extent of what 1950s electronics could accomplish with any degree of reliability.  This system, as limited and flawed as it was, also conferred the unintentional benefit of actually knowing what you were shooting at.

#4 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-11 19:06:01

RobertDyck,

Canadair was selected to complete development of a radar guidance system for AIM-7 Sparrow II. Yes, they were well on their way to getting it to work. And yes, they would have sold them to the US. Development was cancelled when Arrow was cancelled.

Russia had a minimally functional air-launched BVR radar-guided missile using analog electronics.  Those missiles were as large as the AIM-54 and only suitable for use against bombers flying at altitude.  The 1980s was when full solid state electronics delivered the compute power to create a missile guidance system sophisticated enough to guide itself over more than the last few miles to a target, meaning somewhere between 10 and 20 miles the missile's onboard radar completes terminal guidance.  Your assertion that Canadair was "well on their way to getting it to work" is pure ego-driven belief backed by nothing.  No Sparrow-sized missile was suitable when limited to tube-based electronics.  As it was, the entire front-half of that missile was tube-based electronics.  Show me a document wherein 50% or better successful hits were recorded against chaff-launching bombers.

A highly scripted test involving a B-17 o B-29 target drone flying straight and level using a missile wheeled directly out of the factory before being loaded onto the launching aircraft doesn't count.  612 AIM-7D/E/E2 missiles were fired during the Viet Nam War and 56 to 59 kills were achieved.  452 AIM-9s were also fired.  Only 80 Sidewinders hit anything.  137 confirmed kills were achieved by both types.  No other nation has fired anywhere near as many missiles in combat as America has.  The British made a lot of claims about how effective Rapier was, and then the Falklands War happened.  When the shooting starts, all those rosy Pk estimates are shown to be what they are- malarkey.  You'll have to pardon me if I question the hell out of anything about Cold War era missile effectiveness, but that's because I know better.

The radar onboard the Arrow was BVR, but I don't know if the radar onboard the missile could.

That was always the problem.  We've been over this before.  Simpler tech that was workable using then-available analog electronics was successful only 10-15% of the time under actual combat conditions during the Viet Nam War, even when the targeted aircraft was flying exactly like those B-17 drone and completely unaware of any inbound missile fired at it.  Actual BVR engagement distances were well under 20 miles.  The AIM-54C and later variants of the long range missiles fired by MiG-25s and MiG-31s were coin tosses in terms of effectiveness.

They got it to work.

Define "working".

American politicians didn't like the fast Canada was developing the best fighter jet in the world.

1950s American politicians never knew enough about fighter jets to have any way of knowing if a fighter jet was or was not "the best in the world", so your ego-driven assertion falls flat once again.  Name off one American politician from the early to mid 1950s who was a jet fighter pilot who saw combat in war involving missiles.  I bet you can't because fighter jets and guided missiles were so new at the time that anyone involved in their development or use would still be in the military or working for a defense contractor.

Canada intended to sell Arrow to the US, Australia, New Zealand, and all NATO allies.

Intentions only matter when backed by actions.  Your government killed the Arrow program.

Arrow was purpose built to intercept and shoot down Russian bombers, so any chance of Russia (Soviets) getting Arrow technology would defeat the point.

Would it?

The MiG-25 actually could do BVR interceptions, as evidence by multiple shoot-downs of Iranian aircraft during the Iran-Iraq War, and it did that without the benefit of western electronics tech, with the caveat that their missiles were as large as the AIM-54 and range was never very impressive for something so big.  That means they were just beyond a merge when they fired.

Many Americans don't want to take the blame for cancellation of Arrow.

America and Americans are not even tangentially responsible for the actions of your own government, which canceled the Arrow for the reasons stated in their own classified internal documents, subsequently released to the public many decades later.  We now know their reasoning had nothing whatsoever to do with America or American politicians and everything to do with the fact that Canada's military leaders thought this:

1. The primary Soviet nuclear threat would come from ICBMs, not long range missiles fired by Soviet bombers.
2. Soviet political leadership lost interest in manned bombers as a nuclear weapons delivery method the moment they figured out that their ICBMs were next to impossible to intercept and could be launched from mobile launchers inside Russia and submarines, providing mere minutes of warning of an impending attack.
3. The Arrow as a concept was unworkable using air-to-air missile tech of that era.

History proved Canada's military leaders were correct on all counts.  Your assertions about their decisions remains factually incorrect and intellectually dishonest.  I posted that document to this forum.  It's yet another example of your ego-driven beliefs being at-odds with factual historical information recorded by your own government.

The Bomarc missiles Canada did purchase and field were the size of small fighter jets and carried small fighter jet radars behind their nosecones, which meant they had at least some chance of effecting a successful interception against both bomber and large missiles.  Even those weapons were primitive compared to modern solid state electronics, and probably carried nothing more than a coin toss chance of achieving a kill.  Thankfully, nobody involved on either side of the Cold War placed much faith in BVR missile interceptors.

Orenda Iroquois was the upgrade.

The Iroquois engine wasn't the only engine being improved in 1958, but you'd need to study history in greater detail, as I have, in order to know that.  I don't care about speculation.  I only care about demonstrated performance.  Arrow's combat radius was already pitiful with J75s and would've been even worse with the Orenda Iroquois engines.

Fuel burn math is real math.  It won't change for anyone.

#5 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-11 12:43:32

RobertDyck,

You keep posting stuff.

I'm patiently waiting for a response demonstrating basic understanding of aerospace design tradeoffs.

Even back in the 1970s people said Canada needs to diversify trade.

Why didn't Canada, France, and the United Kingdom pool their design and manufacturing resources, post-WWII?

There seems to be very limited economic trade value, even today, most of it defense-related.

Why doesn't the UK buy metal ores from Canada, for example?

Then developed the CF-105 Arrow.

CF-105 was a remarkably good airframe design, but Iroquois was a remarkably inefficient engine design, even for the late 1950s.  By the time the CF-105 flew, the J58 was accelerating 40% less air mass while producing 14-25% more dry thrust and 13% more thrust in burner.  If that's not indicative of a fundamental engine design problem, then I don't know what qualifies.

America doesn't have any issue with purchasing foreign weapons, despite spurious claims to the contrary, but when your design can't meet key performance metrics, it doesn't get purchased.  Engines need reasonable-for-their-time fuel economy when compared with similar American engine designs, not simple thrust output.  When we evaluated how poorly Iroquois engines did on fuel economy, they weren't worth further investment.  We already had more fuel efficient engines with similar thrust output (J58 or J93).  If we were going to design a combat jet around an engine, as all of them are, then we would expect a foreign design to demonstrate parity with American engine designs, and preferably an improvement over existing American engines.  Iroquois was not an improvement, so it was never considered a worthwhile foreign defense engineering project for our government to fund.

If Iroquois was able to demonstrate J58 / J93 thrust output with improved TSFC, I would bet almost anything that we'd fund further development, regardless of what the Canadian government did with their Arrow program.  Throughout the Cold War, the most notable design detail pertaining to British, Canadian, and French fighter jet engine designs was how fuel-inefficient they were, relative to American engines, which is why we rarely bought any.  Now you see quite a few British engines powering American combat aircraft, because they are actual improvements relative to contemporary American engine designs and, beyond geopolitical considerations, that's why we purchased them.

America's Air Force really liked the CF-105 as a platform and concept, but in practice none of the weapon systems or electronics to enable it to function as a self-directed BVR interceptor were remotely close to being ready for combat use.  Nobody had a reliable and operationally usable BVR radar and air intercept missile combination until the 1980s.  For the F-106s that America did purchase in limited numbers, more than a few were lost to accidents, but none of them were used in combat to perform interception missions.  The only combat jet designed in the 1950s which was not well on its way to the bone yard by the 1980s was the B-52, so America would've purchased fewer CF-105s vs F-106s for that same role and then had a more expensive F-106 with nearly identical actual vs envisioned capabilities.

There might have been orders for 180 aircraft for America and 40-60 from Canada, so 100 fewer tails than actual F-106 production.  What actual good would that have done for America or Canada?  The British had already abandoned the dedicated interceptor role by the 1960s when they realized before Americans did, just as Canadian military leaders did, that radar and missile tech was nowhere near good enough.

Performance for Iroquois is remarkably close.

The F135 engine has almost as much dry thrust (28,000lbf) as the Iroquois has in full afterburner (30,000lbf).  In full afterburner, the F135 (43,000lbf) has 43% greater thrust than the Iroquois.  F135 OPR is 28:1, 324lbm/sec mass flow rate.  Iroquois OPR is 8:1, 420lbm/sec mass flow rate.  That means the F135 will have significantly better fuel economy at any power setting.  There's nothing "remarkably close" about them.

Mass flow rates for American fighter jet engines only vary between 140lbm/sec (J52) and 325lbm/sec (F135), from the mid-1950s to the present day, with the tiny J85 that powered the F-5 and T-38 being the only outlier.  This covers J52, J58, J75, J79, J93, TF30, TF41, F101, F110, F404, F414, F119, and F135.  Higher mass flow rates without significant thrust increases are always indicative of inefficient designs.

The closest Iroquois size and weight analogs were the J75s, but J75s still have 12.5:1 OPRs and 260lbm/sec mass flow rates, with maximum thrust being 29,500lbf (J75-P5A) vs 30,000lbf (Iroquois).  OPR is a major factor in jet engine fuel efficiency, so at max dry thrust the Iroquois was burning an additional 4,050lbs/hr (596gph) at sea level.  For equal thrust, Iroquois was still burning an additional 1,925lbs/hr (283gph).  Afterburning TSFC figures between J75 and Iroquois are quite similar.  This is unsurprising since thrust is also nearly equal.

Any engine ingesting 60% more air mass to achieve the same max thrust output will be fair to terrible in terms of TSFC.  The minor thrust improvement of the Iroquois engine over the J75 was accompanied by a significant fuel burn increase.  That was why Iroquois was never installed in any other fighter jets.  Iroquois was an obsolete design by 1958.  It's a scaled-up J79 in terms of fuel burn rate, except that a scaled-up J79 would have J75 fuel burn rates.  The J58 turbojets that powered the SR-71 were also more efficient, and capable of producing more dry (25,000lbf) and wet (34,000lbf) thrust, at reduced fuel burn rates, when the air intake was appropriately sized.  The SR-71's intake design limited installed thrust because it was deliberately designed for Mach 3 flight speeds at 70,000ft, which meant most of the intake area was "blocked" by its variable geometry inlet.  Despite the dramatic loss of thrust at speeds below Mach 2 for the installed J58 engines, the increase efficiency and suppression of compressor surge at Mach 3 flight speeds was worth the tradeoff for a recon plane flying straight and level at 70,000ft at Mach 3.  Nobody wanting better takeoff to Mach 2.5 thrust and acceleration would ever design their engine inlets the way the SR-71's inlets were designed.

#6 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-10 11:21:56

RobertDyck,

I posed a question about Canada producing an indigenous airframe and engine combination.  Canada already makes very large airframe parts for the F-35 and Pratt & Whitney Canada also makes proven reliable commercial jet engines (some of the best in the business) with as much thrust as most non-afterburning fighter jet engine.

PW815GA Engines are 50inD x 130inL, weigh 3,136lbs dry, and develop 15,680lbf.  They get much better fuel economy than virtually any low-bypass "fighter jet" engine.  The Gulfstream G600 uses a pair of these and 41,500lbs of fuel to fly up to 7,595 miles.  Fuel burn per mile, at 5.46lbs for its pair of engines is spectacular- about 0.8 gallons per mile.  Get PWC to design a burner for these engines, if you want more thrust.  You have lots of cool air from the fan to do it.

Gulfstream and Dassault long range biz jets both use PW800 engines:
PW800.png

Why is that not an option?

Canada would become more independent of American aerospace component inputs than Sweden is, if only they started making their own airframes and buying their own engines.  Your military would also have complete control over design specifications and mission requirements for their own combat jet designs.  If they don't value being able to drop Mk84s, as the F-35 was designed to do, then they don't need to design their fighters to do that, so none of the significant airframe kinematic limitations and cost compromises required to do that need to take place.

The actual speed-limiting factor of the F-35 airframe design is known as "fineness ratio", and that is precisely what limits top speed to Mach 1.6, not engine thrust.  If the F-35's fuselage was extended about 5ft, then it would be capable of Mach 2.  The people who designed the F-35 did not care about pure straight-line speed, though, because that was never a design requirement.  They want 9g maneuverability, carriage of 2X Mk84s and 4X AIM-120Ds internally, and maximum internal fuel.  The F-35 provided that, so their customers were happy.

Speed is not about thrust alone, as the A-5 Vigilante proved.  The A-5's TWR was pitiful compared to modern combat jets, yet it was capable of Mach 2 because it's fineness ratio was much better than the F-35.  Cold War era American / British / French combat jets achieved Mach 2+ speeds on the basis of fineness ratio and area ruling, not thrust.  Thrust is the brute force method of increasing speed, and nowhere near as effective as deliberate aerodynamic design choices.  Any increase in thrust is always accompanied by an increase in fuel burn rate.  At some point, you have to quit adding thrust and start using geometry to solve speed / aerodynamic drag problems.

#7 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2026-01-09 02:27:54

Nothing Was Leared YouTube Channel -  White Liberal News Good For US Means Bad For Us ep 103

"Join us next time when we tell you how much better we are as liberals than everyone else." - Karen

#8 Re: Meta New Mars » kbd512 Postings » 2026-01-09 02:11:09

This link covers some of the ceramic fibers being used in these parts:
Oxide-oxide ceramic matrix composites enabling widespread industry adoption

I would be remiss if I did not mention the role that NASA's and DOE's partnership programs as the genesis for the commercialization of a lot of these lab curiosities.  Science for its own sake still matters, but so does directed science, aka "engineering", aimed at solving real world problems.  NASA helps industry develop the basic "know-how" to retire risk to begin to apply aerospace technologies to the ordinary everyday world that the majority of us inhabit.

#9 Re: Meta New Mars » kbd512 Postings » 2026-01-09 01:53:31

tahanson43206,

Using materials like Alumina and BNNT, it's feasible to produce SCO2 engines with 1,300C TITs and 66% thermal-to-mechanical efficiency, with the weight of Aluminum metal and both absolute strength and strength-to-weight far surpassing any Inconel super alloy at 1,300C.  At that point, there's little to argue over the benefits of this technology.  It will be smaller / lighter / stronger / longer-lasting / more thermally efficient than any competing thermal engine technology.  It's rapidly becoming a close runner-up to Solid Oxide Fuel Cells, but at much greater power density.

Reliable direct conversion (of hydrocarbon fuels) SOFCs are now approaching 5kW/kg in commercialized applications, and they achieve 70% to 80% thermal efficiency.  I've read about lab-scale test articles achieving 8kW/kg.  Plate-out of the electrodes and destruction of the membranes from Sulfur contamination continues to be a problem, although use of Methane vs denser fuels (Propane, kerosene, diesel) ameliorates this problem.  SCO2 gas turbine engines are capable of power densities about 20X that of SOFCs by using CMCs combining Alumina with advanced fiber reinforcements like BNNT.

Do you see those big white components in these gas turbine engines?:
0617CW_IM_Fig3b.jpg

Oxide-Advanced-Thermal-512.jpg

Those are Alumina-based CMCs.  They're ceramic fiber reinforced metal oxide matrix composites (Alumina binder with Nextel fibers or something similar) with some plasticity to them, meaning they behave less like glass rods and more like sheet metal, but with significant thermal shock tolerance.  They're not stronger than metals at room temperature, nor harder than pure ceramics, nor stiffer than Carbon fibers, yet they have a highly desirable mix of those properties combined with greater tensile strength than super alloys at combustion temperatures.  Did I mention how light they are?  They're similar in density to Aluminum.  Even after hundreds of hours of operation, they still look brand new, because they're already oxidized to the point that no additional oxidation is possible.  Have you ever noticed how metals exposed to such extreme temperatures look "rusted" or "blackened" or "every color of the rainbow"?  That is actually surface oxidation damage to the base metal alloy.  After a certain amount of accumulated oxidation damage, they become scrap metal.

A master's level thesis on testing these materials:
All-Oxide Ceramic Matrix Composites - Thermal Stability during Tribological Interactions with Superalloys - Daniel Vazquez Calnacasco - Luleå University of Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences and Mathematics

Preface
This project was performed between September 2019 and May 2021 as part of the Advanced Materials Science and Engineering (AMASE) Master Program, coordinated by the European School of Materials (EUSMAT) through an Erasmus+ scholarship.

The work focused on the interactions between a ceramic matrix composite and a superalloy when subjected to tribological testing and was carried out under the supervision of professors Marta-Lena Antti and Farid Akhtar at the Division of Engineering Materials of Luleå University of Technology (Sweden) in collaboration with GKN Aerospace Engine Systems, Sweden.

The composites studied in this work are often referred to in the literature with different terminologies involving the acronym “CMC” for Ceramic Matrix Composites, preceded by a suffix, such as in: i) “Oxide” or “All-Oxide” CMC (OCMC), ii) Oxide-Oxide CMC (Ox-Ox or Ox/Ox CMC), iii) Continuous-Fiber Ceramic Composites (CFCC), iv) Long Fiber Composites (LFC) v) Ceramic Fiber-Matrix Composites (CFMC) and vi) Fiber Reinforced Ceramics (FRC & FRCMC). In this work the term OCMC is preferred.

When addressing a composite in this document, the nomenclature will consist of three components, in the following order: fiber/(interphase)/matrix. If only two components are written, such as in “N720/A”, it will be understood that the composite has a porous matrix and no interphase.

A NASA CMC Development Partnership Project with Rolls-Royce and COI ceramics:
[url=https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20150018257/downloads/20150018257.pdf]OXIDE/OXIDE CERAMIC MATRIX COMPOSITE (CMC)
EXHAUST MIXER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NASA ENVIRONMENTALLY RESPONSIBLE AVIATION (ERA) PROJECT[/url]

The very last slide shows pictograms of the process steps that COI Ceramics uses to make these parts.

Anyone who wants to see practical hybrid-electric aircraft take flight should be onboard with this tech, because every other energy storage and conversion technology is a pretender to their cause.  At the present time, there are no electro-chemical batteries or fuel cells in existence that come within a country mile of the power-to-weight requirements for modern long range turbine-powered and kerosene-fueled aircraft.

Seeing designs with 20-30% increase in fuel economy over existing conventional gas turbine powered aircraft would be pretty spectacular.

This comment from Reddit User "discombobulated38x" is one of the best simplified explanations of current large turbofan engine design that I've seen in awhile:

Jet engine efficiency is made up of two things Thermal efficiency (Nth) and propulsive efficiency (Np).

Nth is 1 when all of the energy liberated by fuel is extracted (so exhaust gas is same temperature as at compressor exit) which is obviously impossible.

Np is 1 when the jet velocity matches the free stream velocity (so no thrust is created).

The goal of a turbofan is to lower the jet velocity, increasing the propulsive efficiency.

I'm struggling to think of a simple way to explain this, but if you take a turbojet, which has, say, Nth of 0.4 (in reality the faster you go the better this number gets), the mass flow is going to be low and the jet velocity (very) high. This means the engine doesn't generate much thrust when moving slowly, but still generates most of that thrust at high (supersonic) speeds, when the free stream velocity is close to the jet velocity (jet velocity not being supersonic as it is so much hotter than the free stream gas).

If you slap a power turbine on the back of that engine and hook it up to a fan it can comfortably generate an order of magnitude more thrust, but at a much lower jet velocity.

What this means is that your thrust at cruise greater, and is propulsively efficient, having a jet velocity as close as possible to the free stream velocity.

You also you have bucket loads more thrust at takeoff, which makes getting off the ground easier.

All of this is done for the same fuel burn. The higher propulsive efficiency at all stages of flight means more thrust is generated per kg of fuel burnt.

The biggest issue with high bypass turbofans is that the tip speed is limited to just over Mach 1 for a couple of reasons. This sets the speed of your low pressure rotor, which means you need a high diameter low pressure turbine with multiple stages to get the work extraction up.

It also means you need a much longer high pressure compressor, which comes with a whole host of its own issues. Pratt & Whitney and GE have mitigated this slightly by adding booster stages to the core, linked to the fan, which do a little but not much. Rolls-Royce on the other hand have gone for a three shaft architecture, which is substantially more complex, but allows for much more efficient compression, resulting in an engine that is substantially shorter and lighter than the competition at a cost of massively increased complexity/part count.

Pratt & Whitney (and RR, but they're behind the game here, partly because they don't have a competing product and partly because they have 3 shaft) have fixed both of these issues by developing a geared turbofan, in which the mass of a huge, slow LP turbine is removed, being replaced with a high speed intermediate/low pressure turbine and a big heavy gearbox. This drives an IP compressor at high speed, and then the fan via a reduction gearbox, decoupling fan diameter/tip speed and turbine speed.

It is a very nifty design, but the gearbox is incredibly hard to design, and to Pratts credit they appear to have nailed it on their PW1000 narrow body engine family. RR have a demo vehicle at the wide body end of the market called UltraFan, and that has the largest aerospace gearbox ever made, which has topped 87,000 horsepower. It's a thing of beauty.

I've not seen a GE9X cutaway yet (and suspect it will be a few years before I do), but GE are stuck with a huge, multi stage LP turbine, not that that seems to have deterred them from producing the biggest, highest bypass ratio having, most powerful aerospace gas turbine on the planet.

#10 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-08 23:45:28

RobertDyck,

RobertDyck wrote:

If Donald Trump tries to interfere, the fact stores will be held in Canada, tools in Canada, skilled technicians in Canada, with supplies from Sweden, with stores of supplies in Sweden. If Donald Trump tries to interfere, that interference would have no effect on Canadian operational aircraft for many months if not years.

President Trump is gone in 3 years.  There are presently at least 20 times more F-35 airframes and components being used every day than there are Gripen-Es in the entire world.  By the time Canada quits dithering on their purchase decision, President Trump will no longer be in office.  You should know that because Canada already makes parts for the F-35.  They've never made, repaired, or alternatively sourced any spare parts for a Gripen.  Building a domestic supply chain for Gripen parts will take the better part of a decade, by which time the rest of the world will have 6th generation fighters in service.  When all the BS about performance is shown for exactly what it is, you won't have anyone to blame except yourselves.  This has been a running theme with Canada since the Avro Arrow.

As hilarious as it would be to watch Canada operate Elbonia's Air Force, I actually think more highly of you than you do of yourselves, apparently.  There isn't a first rate Air Force in the entire world which is not developing stealthy aircraft.  Either everyone but Sweden is stupid, or they know exactly what stealth means in the context of tactical fighters and are working as fast as they can to "catch up" to modernity.  Why do you think the European Union nations are working on their own stealth fighters?

When the Avro Arrow was cancelled, NASA was given first pick of their engineers.

Your country is contemplating purchasing fighters that have been rendered obsolete against modern air defense systems and air superiority fighters, all to thumb your noses at one man who will be gone in 3 years time.  Nostalgia doesn't win any fights against similarly capable opponents.  Good luck.  You'll need it.

#11 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Coal-fired Brayton Cycle Supercritical CO2 Boilers » 2026-01-08 23:10:10

Grainger Istitute for Engineering - University of Wisconsin at Madison - Raytheon Technologies Research Center - Additive Manufactured Supercritical CO2 Heat to Power Solution - June 8, 2022

With a 1,300C TIT, they're talking about getting 66% thermal efficiency.

That would be a very significant step-change for marine and aircraft propulsion systems, and across a very significant power output range.  The most efficient conventional large turbofan engines are 46% thermally efficient, but only at maximum thermodynamic output.  Extracting two-thirds of the mechanical energy out of the total available thermal energy in every kilogram of fuel burned would be a stunning achievement for gas turbines.  For a 1GWe power plant where all of the core plant components easily fit on perhaps 5 semi trucks, that is jaw-dropping performance.

I will always be a sailor at heart, so I think of it this way:
An 80,000t to 110,000t aircraft carrier nominally requires 208MW of power to move at 30+ knots.  SCO2 gas turbines would be so light and compact that the ship could have a quadruple redundant power and propulsion plant, such that each of the four plants can propel the ship at maximum speed.  Destruction of 3 out of 4 power plant compartments from bomb hits wouldn't slow the ship at all.  Each plant is so much smaller than a steam plant that it can have its own armored engine compartment at the aft end of the ship, because the equipment has a very minor effect on how the ship sits in the water.  The steam plants were so large and heavy that the entire hull from about amidships aft, just below the waterline and all the way to the keel, was filled with various boilers, engine rooms, steam piping, shafting, and backup diesel generators.  With a SCO2 propulsion system, the gallery deck, which is situated just below the flight deck and above the hangar bay, could be almost empty except for the aircraft catapults and arresting gear.  There would be no need to put squadron ready rooms there, staff workspaces, and berthing compartments, because most of the hull would be a cavernous empty space available for the air wing personnel.  This would reduce the carrier's metacentric height and improve stability following battle damage.

For aircraft, existing airframes could just about double their cruising range for no increase in fuel load or engine weight.

I don't know how other people think about those kinds of performance improvements, but I consider them to be a "step change" in engine capability.

#12 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-08 15:38:46

What European Fighter Jets Have Critical US Components?

Sweden's Saab Gripen
Of the European fighter jets, the Gripen is by far the most dependent on international parts (while Sweden has a respectable military industry, it is far from capable of manufacturing all the parts needed for a 4.5+ generation fighter jet). Only a comparatively small amount of the components and systems found on the Gripen are actually designed and manufactured by Swedish contractors.

Example US contractors for the Saab Gripen:
    General Electric: F414-GE-39E turbofan engine
    Honeywell: Life Support Systems

Typhoon Eurofighter
...
Even so, American DNA can be found all through the Eurofighter. In 2012, Northrop Grumman reported it had been contracted to provide inertial and satellite navigation systems for Tranche 3 of the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Example US contractors for Typhoon Eurofighter:
    Lockheed Martin: Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod
    Collins Aerospace: Large Area Display
    Honeywell: Life Support Systems
    Northrop Grumman: Inertial and satellite navigation systems

Dassault Rafale
Example US contractors for the Dassault Rafale:
    HiRel Connectors, Inc.: Electrical & Electronic Connectors
    Collins Aerospace: Pitot probe; ice detectors; air data total air temperature sensors
    The Lee Company: Hydraulic Systems, Restrictors
    Lockheed Martin: Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod
    Aerotech Herman Nelson, Inc.: Portable heaters (Canadian contractor)

So could the Europeans produce an all-European 4.5+ generation fighter jet without US contractor input? Possibly, but the reality is none of them do (although the Rafale may come close).

#13 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-08 14:28:41

RobertDyck,

The problem is with what you think you know that just isn't so.

RobertDyck wrote:

For example: you claim the F414 engine is manufactured in the US. But that's wrong.

The primary American component in the Saab Gripen's engine is the core turbofan unit, specifically the General Electric (GE) F414-GE-39E engine, which powers the Gripen E/F variants, providing significantly more thrust and performance than older models. Other US companies like Honeywell also supply critical systems like life support, making roughly a third of the Gripen's systems American-sourced, meaning US export controls apply.

When China forges crankshafts and American machine shops perform the finishing machining operations, that doesn't mean the cranksahft was actually "made" in America, nor does it mean said machine shop can actually forge a crankshaft.

Maybe you don't make the distinction, but try to assemble an AIM-120 without the radar unit and computer provided by Raytheon or the rocket motor provided by ATK and let me know how that goes.

Lockheed-Martin insists all maintenance work for F-35 must be done in the US.

Lockheed-Martin insists that all depot level repair work be done by a qualified unit if they will still be held responsible for the end result.  This doesn't apply to Israel or most of the F-35s used by the Europeans, for example.  Sign a waiver and take full ownership of the repair work.  If your people screw it up, then it's on you.  Most people who want their product to come with workmanship guarantees are going to take their $20M fighter jet engine back to the factory that made it for refurbishment.  If you're confident in your repair abilities, then sign the damn waiver and take full ownership of all components and any mistakes.  Otherwise, quit whining that the primary contractor insists on repair work to the product they partially "own", by contractual agreement, even though they don't want to, is done at a suitable depot with factory trained techs.  No finger-pointing if one of your depot repair techs doesn't understand the task and the jet crashes as a result.

We've already been over this thorny issue with the GE and Pratt split-contract engines that power the F-14D / F-15 / F-16.

#14 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Coal-fired Brayton Cycle Supercritical CO2 Boilers » 2026-01-08 14:11:19

tahanson43206,

An organization the size of a Nation may be required to make it work on a large scale.

The portion of the design work that requires truly advanced engineering capabilities is modeling of the turbine's dynamic behavior during ramp-up / ramp-down.  You need a supercomputer to do this.  Trial and error won't cut it.  The reason SCO2 gas turbines didn't exist until about 25 years ago was this exact problem.

It seems unlikely that specialized coatings can be applied to 3D printed parts using 3D printer technology at it exists in 2025.

Chemical Vapor Deposition works on pretty much any part you can throw in the tank.

Can you find examples of 3D printable parts for SCO2 devices?

Easily.  Google "3D printed SCO2 turbine components".

3D Printing Turbomachinery for Super Critical CO2 Systems - Hanwha Power Systems achieves 80% faster build time and 90% less material with VELO3D's Sapphire

SwRI study examines oxide growth in additively manufactured metals in sCO2 environment

Design, Fabrication and Testing of Novel Compact Recuperators for the Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Brayton Power Cycle

Nobody is trying to hide the progress being made on this tech, it's simply not widely reported on.  America, China, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Japan, and various other Asian and European Union countries are all working on this technology.  It's an area of active development.

The most significant technical challenges are:
1. Modeling turbine flow behavior with SCO2- you really need a supercomputer to do this, and AI would probably help some more
2. Using the correct refractory materials with well-matched CTEs (this actually took quite a bit of experimentation)
3. Modeling and fabricating the heat recuperators and air separator units (for power cycles that use enriched O2)- advanced machining such as chemical etching, diffusion bonding, and selective laser metal sintering are used here, because these units are not like "tube and fin" models used by steam turbines or other more common heat exchangers
4. Long term failure mode analysis with significant thermal gradients and CO2 impurities at-play
5. Selection of appropriate sealing and lubrication materials.  This is challenging, but not impossible.

#15 Re: Not So Free Chat » Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers: » 2026-01-08 01:35:42

RobertDyck,

Ukraine is justified in attacking Russian ships anywhere, considering Russia is currently invading Ukraine with intent to completely annex all their territory, make Ukraine cease to exist.

I don't recall anyone stating that they're not justified.  Unfortunately for them, they don't have the manpower and coordination to win a land war with Russia.  Their actions in combat are admirable, but courage only takes you so far.  The math doesn't work.  At some point, training, sheer numbers, and logistics become determining factors.  If we put our troops on the battlefield, Russia's war with America will be over shortly after it starts.  I'm pretty sure that's what President Trump just did.  I think his patience in dealing with Russia is wearing thin.

But attacking shipping of a country with which you are not at war?

President Trump first made a genuine good faith effort, on behalf of both America and Ukraine, to stop the war in Ukraine.  That was an act of pure generosity and kindness to everyone involved.  President Putin's actions made it clear that he did want that.  Russia has now entered into the "finding out" phase.

During President Trump's first term in office, the Russians and their mercenaries deliberately attacked American troops in Syria.  Our Air Force then decided that a quick terraforming project was in order.  By the time the shooting was over, there were no more Russian troops left.  I'm sure some pieces of them were left somewhere, just not ones that anyone could ever identify.

International trade cannot exist as long as countries allow piracy.

From the age of sail to the present day, piracy has never stopped, nor has trade.  Your assertion about this and all available evidence are at odds with each other.  Shipping will become more costly at certain times and in certain places.

#16 Re: Not So Free Chat » Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers: » 2026-01-07 22:40:35

RobertDyck,

Weren't you the one endlessly advocating for sending weapons to fight the Russians in Ukraine?

Now that America is directly and actively pushing back on Russia by hitting them where it hurts most, you're shocked that we did it?

#17 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Coal-fired Brayton Cycle Supercritical CO2 Boilers » 2026-01-07 22:25:23

tahanson43206,

The seals we use are various grades of stainless steels and ceramics, not any kind of plastic.  At the temperatures involved it should be obvious why.  Virtually every modern piston engine uses multi-layer stainless steel gaskets to hold in combustion pressure.  Modern diesel engines use 2,000bar fuel injection pressures and achieve 200bar combustion pressures.  The labyrinth seals do leak some CO2, but we also use other inert gases like Argon to put external pressure on the sealing surfaces to hold the CO2 in.  Argon is a very heavy gas, so leakage through sealing surfaces is less of an issue.  Small Argon filled chambers at each end of the shaft do a good job.  A longer shaft also reduces the temperature gradient so there's fewer leaks associated with thermal expansion.  The other sealing mechanism we use with longer shafts and lower shaft temperatures is lube oil.  Steam turbines already use lube oil.

Stress corrosion cracking can be greatly limited by applying ceramic coatings to the surfaces of the parts.  The tech I'm talking about is no different at all than current gas turbine engine tech.  Steam turbine and conventional gas turbine blades are also very susceptible to stress corrosion cracking.  I've mentioned Silicon Nitride coatings multiple times on this forum, because it's used to coat steam and gas turbine blades, amongst other things.

thermal-1.png

#19 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-07 21:33:59

RobertDyck,

Well, you're still responding, though not in a way that exemplifies the behavior of someone who is more concerned with their nation's defense than complaining about President Trump.  You've made no attempts to engage with the substance of the arguments I've made, and more than a few of your assertions are provably wrong.  You could always make a data-backed logical argument to prove me wrong.  I keep telling myself that you're capable of more, because I still believe you are.

#20 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Coal-fired Brayton Cycle Supercritical CO2 Boilers » 2026-01-07 14:16:02

Steam vs Supercritical CO2 Power Turbine Size Comparisons:
1-s2.0-S0196890422011967-gr22.jpg

The 1GWe SCO2 power turbine will easily fit on a single semi truck.  The 1GWe steam turbine?  No chance of that ever happening.

Toshiba's 25MWe Allam cycle SCO2 Power Turbine and Combustor Cutaway:
toshibacombustor.jpg

The extra casings surrounding the power turbine are there to recirculate hot CO2.

Edit:
This is a waste heat recovery turbine size comparison between SCO2 and steam:
Turbines-comparison-22-Sept-768x776.png

One of those devices is clearly much smaller than the other.

Steam turbines typically have many many blades that must be very carefully weighed and assembled in a specific order to maintain the balance of the rotating assembly.

SCO2 turbines tend to be machined from monolithic blocks of refractory metal alloys, formed from 3D printed powdered / sintered metal, or precisely cut using wire EDM.  This is practical because even 1GW SCO2 power turbines are so small compared to steam turbines.

#21 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Coal-fired Brayton Cycle Supercritical CO2 Boilers » 2026-01-07 12:25:55

A short YouTube video on the Chinese SCO2 gas turbine power plant used to provide additional electrical power to their steel mill without burning more coal:
CGTN News - World's first commercial sCO2 power generator begins operation in China

Edit:
In case the point isn't clear, that steel mill is also a grid-connected power source.

#22 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Coal-fired Brayton Cycle Supercritical CO2 Boilers » 2026-01-07 12:15:28

tahanson43206,

After posting the above, and noting that steam has a major advantage on Earth due to the installed base and the almost negligible advantages of an SCO2 equivalent system, it seems to me unlikely SCO2 will make much progress on Earth.

Gas turbines and heat recuperators that are 10X smaller than steam equivalents are not an "almost negligible advantage".  All that metal and machining costs real money.  Even if the steel grades used in a steam turbine are modestly cheaper, they're not 10X cheaper than the steels used in SCO2 turbines.  The difference in sizing of the major pieces of plant equipment are "the entire city block" vs "one house on the block".  All the stuff in one house can be crammed into a Starship and shipped to Mars.  Shipping an entire city block's worth of equipment is not practical.  There is no reality-based scenario where any kind of steam turbine comes close to out-performing the SCO2 turbine.  It's not cheaper, it's not smaller, it's not easier to repair, it's not easier to assemble and disassemble for transport, it's not faster to ramp-up and ramp-down to load-follow, and it's definitely not minimizing CO2 emissions.

China National Nuclear Corporation already has their first grid-connected SCO2 power plant in Guizhou.  It's very small, only a pair of 15MW waste heat SCO2 turbo-generators, but that waste heat was otherwise at the wrong temperature for using steam, because it was waste heat from steel making.  Would you rather they burn more or less coal?

The first generation of any new technology will take time to establish its footing.  I don't judge combustion engines on the relative success or failure of Ford's Model T.  That engine and vehicle was a joke compared to any modern turbocharged inline 4 cylinder engine in a mini SUV.  Modern I4's produce as much horsepower and torque as a muscle car era V8, at less than half the weight and displacement.  Modern family vehicles are only possible because their turbo I4's deliver V8 torque and power at half the size and weight, all day long.

This article does a good job of indicating exactly how the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle works, why it's a significant improvement over what we presently have in the form of steam and conventional gas turbines, and why Net Power is pursuing it, despite cost overruns and delays, which are related to problems with the Air Separator Units, rather than the SCO2 gas turbines and heat exchangers:
This Power Plant Runs on CO2

One of the reasons it's "good far Mars", is that it recaptures and recirculates the exhaust effluent, instead of dumping it in the atmosphere.  It's the first power plant to demonstrate it can do that economically, meaning so much of the power isn't consumed trying to recompress the CO2 for storage that it's not worth the cost and energy involved.  It's a CO2 recycling system deliberately built into the power plant as an integral design feature, rather than as an afterthought.  Those Air Separator Units will also become critical life support infrastructure pieces for a Mars colony.

#23 Re: Not So Free Chat » Greenland » 2026-01-07 11:04:53

It would appear that Denmark and the EU are now ready to send ships and troops to defend Greenland.  Problem solved without America having to devote more of our own troops and money to doing what Denmark always should have been doing themselves as a real functional NATO ally.  Deeds, not words.  Talk is cheap.  Mounting a credible defense against an attack never is.

This was posted today:
Denmark, Greenland seek Rubio meeting after Trump remarks

Showing up is half the battle.  When you actually show up and put in the work, both your allies and enemies take notice.  Paying lip service to the idea of defending Greenland is no longer sufficient.  When we station our military forces somewhere, it's not merely for sake of appearances.  We will use it, if need be.  Deterrence works much better when your enemies know, in no uncertain terms, that hostile actions will beget immediate overwhelming consequences.  Men like Vladimir Putin and Xi Xinping only respect real routinely demonstrated military power.  Whether or not our liberals are squeamish about that, or wish to complain that every last dime of public money isn't going to their favorite government handout program, they only sleep soundly in their beds at night because we're both willing and able to fight and win against all adversaries.

#24 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2026-01-07 01:55:55

If it's not apparent yet from the photos provided above, all the "real money" spent on the F-35 program was dumped into the sensors and software to provide a "bubble" of spatial awareness, plus the computer program telling the pilot what to pay attention to and what can be safely ignored.  That's why it took so long to fully develop.  It had almost nothing to do with the flight control software or engine or airframe, even though all of those things are their own little technological marvels.  There is no other aircraft in existence that provides the same level of situational awareness as the F-35, to include the F-22.

We don't pay lip service to the idea of going back and fixing defects in components or software, either.  When we discover that something is broken, we commit to solving the problems until it "just works".  Denying that problems exist or hoping your enemy doesn't discover the flaws in the system is not an acceptable way to do business.  To their credit, Lockheed-Martin has worked with their team of contractors to find and fix all observed airframe, engine, and software problems.  Does it take them longer than we'd like it to?  Yes.  Is it cheap?  No.  Does it mean we have confidence that the platform is ready for combat by the time it sees combat?  Absolutely.  All effort is now directed at future enhancements and meeting the production (16 new tails per month) and repair schedules.

If you are not aware of what is going on around your plane at all times, against anyone who has a plane with the F-35s capabilities or modern air defense systems, you're as good as dead.  If someone hasn't come along to kill you yet, that's because you had no serious effect on their operations.  To this very day, most pilots who were shot down were either completely unaware that they were under attack, or so lacking in basic information about the direction that the threat was coming from that they couldn't do anything about it.

Here in the West, we spend so much time and effort training fighter pilots that we cannot afford to forfeit their lives, simply because some electronic gadget that could provide threat and target awareness wasn't installed in their jet due to cost-cutting measures.  We need them to survive their first 5 to 10 combat missions to gain the experience required to operate in the new threat environment.

If they fly prior generations of combat jets, then half of them get shot down on every mission they fly against enemy air defenses and fighters in virtually all of the war games conducted during the past 25 years.  Statistically speaking, that means none of them live long enough to see the end of their first combat deployment.  Nobody is left to train the next replacement group of pilots.  Worse than that, the production rates for modern combat jets are so low that there won't be replacements available in any meaningful period of time.  Absent complete destruction of enemy air defenses, an entire squadron of Vipers or Strike Eagles or Rafales or Typhoons could be lost on a single mission over heavily defended territory.  There's no way to conjure up replacement jets and aircrew.  Anyone who isn't already in the training pipeline is unlikely to see action before the war is over, and there are never enough tails once the shooting starts.

China is producing about 200 J-20s per year as of 2025, so only 16 planes per month spread across 5 different production lines.  Even for China it would now appear that there's a hard limit on resources devoted to any one piece of military equipment.  Russia hasn't even come close to replacing combat-related aircraft losses in the Ukraine War.  There's no reason to believe that America, China, Russia, or anyone else for that matter, ever could.  These combat jets are no longer Aluminum sheet metal bent into shape and riveted.  The tooling to make the airframes runs well into the tens of millions of dollars, and their engines are "OMG" expensive.  Trained and efficient production line workers cannot be summoned from the talent pool, either.  If money is no object, then sure, we could spend a major portion of GDP to produce more jet engines, but that is now as unrealistic as thinking you can afford to lose half your fighter jet squadron per mission.

Oddly enough, the Chinese are also starting to accept that this is how modern air combat really works.  They have just as many problems with training / retaining new pilots and meeting production schedules as we do.  They're not churning out their new J-20s or J-35s any faster than we are, and for the same reason.  These machines are hideously complex.  Each one is now so costly as to almost become a strategic asset.  Losing them to human error, inadequate training, or limited survivability in the threat environment are no longer viewed as practical, even during a war.  If you fail to swiftly establish air superiority and use it to wipe out the enemy's war machines, then you'll fight a desperate grinding war of attrition until one side breaks under the constant pressure, and that process could take years.  All the while, you're losing young men at frightening rates, money is being burned like there's no tomorrow, and in a very real sense, the opportunity cost of having the war drag on is more economically damaging than the deaths and national debts because it can keep taking from your people generations after the war is over.  I've yet to see ships produced quickly and effectively when the shipyard was under cruise missile attack, either.  The WWII production methods don't work with modern weapon systems.  The "quick and dirty" substitute weapons are iron bombs and artillery shells, which means you have to get close enough to use them.  Whoever is able to control the skies is going to dictate which pieces of military equipment remain usable.  Knock out the oil refineries or power plants and the entire war machine grinds to a halt.  Here in America, we've determined that we cannot afford to allow that to happen to us, so everything we develop for the air power domain is to ensure that happens to our enemies first.  Attrition warfare is a losing proposition, as both WWI and WWII already proved.

#25 Re: Meta New Mars » kbd512 Postings » 2026-01-07 00:36:36

As far as "beyond piston engines" is concerned, not to beat a dead horse, but I truly believe that the absolutely incredible power density of Supercritical CO2 systems is the most likely contender.  A 250kW (335hp) SCO2 gas turbine rotor is roughly the same size as the US Silver Dollar.  The heat exchanger power density can reach 700MWth+ per cubic meter.  That means the power turbine, burner, and heat exchanger assembly can be roughly the same size of a shoebox.  It'll be relatively heavy if made exclusively of refractory metals vs RCC, but as far as compactness and thermodynamic efficiency are concerned, nothing else comes close.

My contention is that hybrid electric powertrains are not only possible but truly practical using SCO2 gas turbines and small Lithium-ion battery packs.  At 160Wh/kg, a 26kg battery pack is sufficient for 60 seconds worth of stored electricity to allow the motors to quickly accelerate to highway speeds.

Alternatively, a purely mechanical powertrain using a CFRP flywheel could store 1.976kWh in a 26kg flywheel and deliver a 130kW / 174hp burst of power for rapid acceleration.  The SCO2 gas turbine could be truly tiny.  Now that we have geared CVTs, this new transmission tech would permit optimized power delivery without electronic shifting.

Last but certainly not least, the dramatic simplification of the powertrain using either of these solutions could make cars significantly lighter.

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