The Race with China

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-24 09:37:59

Have you looked at the latest World Almanac Statistics for China, last year the GDP was 7 trillion, now its 8 trillion. the US GDP is 12.5 trillion! Seems to me that China is rapidly catching up with the United States. If we are to get to Mars first, we had better do it soon, before China overtakes us and steals the planet out from under our noses.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-11-24 14:32:00

Here's the problem with Chinese

China has no heavy lift, and no big experience like Russia or the USA

Here's what they have going for them:

Bu they've got good medium rockets, China is a rapidly growing economy, they have a good Shenzhou spacecraft which was based on Soyuz and Aldrin said it could be used to fly around the Moon like the early Apollo missions. They have tested manned support missions, put 3 men in Space, and may soon have a space-station or robotic missions on the Moon.

All this has the US worrying about the Shuttle get back to speed and then looking back to the Moon, and therefore using the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars. This I can not agree with.

cIclops · 2006-11-25 02:37:52

Badly constructed poll Tom, how are Chinese members meant to vote?

If you must do this, how about: 'Should the US race China to Mars?

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-25 08:32:16

Badly constructed poll Tom, how are Chinese members meant to vote?
If you must do this, how about: 'Should the US race China to Mars?

Well the Chinese can always vote no, and depending on how many Chinese have internet accounts, speak English and watch this forum, they could potentially out vote us. :twisted:

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-25 08:37:57

Here's the problem with Chinese
China has no heavy lift, and no big experience like Russia or the USA
Here's what they have going for them:

Bu they've got good medium rockets, China is a rapidly growing economy, they have a good Shenzhou spacecraft which was based on Soyuz and Aldrin said it could be used to fly around the Moon like the early Apollo missions. They have tested manned support missions, put 3 men in Space, and may soon have a space-station or robotic missions on the Moon.

All this has the US worrying about the Shuttle get back to speed and then looking back to the Moon, and therefore using the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars. This I can not agree with.

We have a head start, no doubt about that, but the Chinese are rapidly expanding, and they got four times the population that we do. Once they get that population educated, there's no way we can catch up with them. So I say we should grab what we can like the Spaniards did of the New World, and stop waiting for some other country to beat us.

The Captain · 2006-11-25 16:10:44

Hopefully the rise of China's space program will give NASA (and congress) a kick in the pants and motivate them. I think the US space program always needs communists to race for it to do anything

Stormrage · 2006-11-26 00:31:24

China doesn't really have a lot of money to spend. They are desperately trying to keep their country together without having an economic meltdown. But just to piss you off. I do hope China get their first. American arrogance doesn't need to be feed.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-26 08:07:58

China doesn't really have a lot of money to spend. They are desperately trying to keep their country together without having an economic meltdown. But just to piss you off. I do hope China get their first. American arrogance doesn't need to be feed.

It has more money than the Soviet Union ever did. I think we have to get used to a new term. A Third World Superpower is not an oxymoron.

The requirements for being a Thrid World Superpower are simply, the country must have alot of people, so many people in fact that even though most of the country's inhabitants have a third world standard of living, they have enough people that the total economy overmatches their nearest rival.

The technology for manned space travel is not new, we could have gone to Mars in the 1980s for example, but we chose not to. China doesn't need cutting edge technology to get to Mars, oh no it only needs deep pockets. I think you will find that China now has the same size GDP as the United States did in the 1980s.

As for Stormrages hoping that China gets their first, to me that sounds like a very juvenile thing to say. Do you think the Chinese won't be arrogant if they become the World's number one Superpower? What makes you think that China will have a better attitude towards Great Britain than the United States. To the future Chinese Empire, Great Britian is nothing but a speck with a declining population. China is not a democracy either, unlike the United States, it has no respect for individual rights, it harnesses capitalism so it can enjoy double digit growth rates, but after it tops the United States, it might decide to exert more control over its people. It will be a dark day for the World, when its most powerful leader is an Emperor and not an elected President. You'd better practise your bowing Stormrage.

Grypd · 2006-11-26 11:22:07

Getting a bit silly but.

China has a decent space industry at present but it costs very little in comparison to western counterparts since China pays its engineers very little. China's growing economy will put a major demand on these engineers for a lot of projects. And it will increase there wages and cost in developments especially as domestic corporations will want them as well.

It will take China to decide to build heavy lift to go for the Moon and Mars and until we see this China has a good LEO craft and could orbit the Moon but landing is something different without tricky multiple launches.

So yes the USA can beat China to Mars but it is the tortoise and Hare race here. It will come down to who can actually send enough colonists to actually dominate the planet and no one is near that stage yet.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-26 12:52:32

China will become a co-equal superpower with the USA when its citizens per capita annual income reaches one quarter of that of US citizens. As China's standard of living gets closer to that of the United States, it's growth will probably slow to something closer to our growth rate, but there is nothing that say's their GDP won't pass that of the United States before that happens. My guess is that when their GDP exceeds our, they'll feel less pressure to compete with the USA economically. Their leaders will then try to exploit China's economic position to seize more power for themselves. I think right now the Chinese will not try to do something stupid like invade Taiwan, but when its economy tops our, then Military adventurism will start to look more tempting, they could afford a bigger and more modern military, and as the potential of economic growth peters out they will be tempted to expand lateally rather than economically, perhaps they will come to feel that it is their destiny to rule the world. The leadership is also wary of its citizens, a more wealty citizenry will start to demand more rights and more say in the government, the Chinese Government wanting to protect its power, might not be so enthused about China's growing standard of living, they want its population servile and subserviant to them, they want to reserve the highest standard of living for themselves, so I see them clamping down on the economy, imposing restrictions so that the business class can't rise as high in society and the governing class using its political power to keep the business class down. they'll have the economic resources to muster, and they'll see the United States and the Western World as a rival.

Expanding laterally includes colonizing space. I can easily see China expending enourmous resources developing a space transportation system so it can expand into the Solar System, every wary of nuclear weapons, they tred softly on their neighbors, perhaps funding guerilla movements to topple unfriendly governments buy avoiding direct military confrontation with the other superpower. Space travel offers no such resistance, it is merely expensive. With an economy of say $15 to $20 trillion, China can afford to maintain a massive infrastructure to support a Mars Colony, the only question is whether the USA, Japan, and Europe are going to cede Mars to them and perhaps the rest of the Solar System or are they going to compete? The libs among us are going to say that Superpower rivalry is so immature, and they'll readily cede Space to China, wanting to focus on commerical satellite launches and jobs instead.

I for one don't want to be Chinese or dominated by China. I also don't want the United States to end up being like Europe angry and jealous over Chinese might as it dominates the Solar System. The first moves occur now, on who's going to explore, settle and dominate space. One possible savior would be robots, if robots become smart enough they can replace people and relative populations of different countries won't matter as much. I see an alliance with Japan as a possible counterbalance, they are pretty advanced in their field of robotics, so perhaps we could maintain a balance between the superpowers that way instead of going the route of massive population increase through immigration. This later route tends to increase the risk of our adopting bad third world habbits such as socialist dictators and redistribution, thus impoverishing ourselves and countering the advantage that greater population brings. If we can get to Mars first, we can be the leading culture and all comers on will have to adapt to what's already there, rather than we going there secondly and having to learn Chinese and bow to their "Red Emperor".

dicktice · 2006-11-27 19:22:04

Tom wrote:

"If we can get to Mars first, we can be the leading culture and all comers on will have to adapt to what's already there, ..."

By "we" I assume, from the content of your third paragraph, you mean: the Japanese, their robots, and us. Brilliant. By when, would you say...?

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-28 09:20:04

Tom wrote:
"If we can get to Mars first, we can be the leading culture and all comers on will have to adapt to what's already there, ..."
By "we" I assume, from the content of your third paragraph, you mean: the Japanese, their robots, and us. Brilliant. By when, would you say...?

Hard to put a date on it, but those who first establish a presence on Mars will have influence on the later generations that settle the Solar System, just as they have in the New World. There are alot of spanish speaking countries in the Western Hemisphere because of the foresight of those early Spanish explorers and colonists, the English and French were latecomers, and almost entirely lost out as the American continents were split between the Spaniards and the Portugese. The English had to fight and claw their way into North America, they settled the 13 colonies, conquered the French colony of Canada, Conquered the Dutch colony of New Amsterdam, pressured Napoleon into selling them Louisiana, settlers pushed tot he Pacific, started a War with the Mexican Empire and conquered a sizable chunk of that, bought Alaska from Russia. Most of the land we took over was in the hands of other European powers before we got there. Poland had no colonies in the New World, and neighter did Germany and Italy, they lost out as they were otherwise occupied with internal European affairs, or in the case of Italy in uniting their country for the first time since the Roman Empire. I think the USA should be one of the foremost colonizing powers. Once initial communities are established their, then new comers will have to learn the language and culture that has been established there to get along. What I don't want is for China to dominate the Whole Solar System as our polititians look inward, and do some social engineering or redistribution.

dicktice · 2006-11-28 20:45:10

What makes you think our politicians will be looking inward once the Solar System has been settled. By that time we'll have become our own "Aliens from Outer Space," and the nations of Earth and their tiny antagonizms long forgotten!

Grypd · 2006-11-29 08:24:35

What makes you think our politicians will be looking inward once the Solar System has been settled. By that time we'll have become our own "Aliens from Outer Space," and the nations of Earth and their tiny antagonizms long forgotten!

But we have seen in our colonisation efforts on Earth that this is exactly what Does not happen.

Mars will be close in communication unlike these old colonies and so contact with family and friends will be still there. People will build the way that they believe is best. (it is why domes will be more popular than underground bases: Larger open areas are prefered by Humans) They will also take there culture with them and these new colonies will absorb that culture and learn from it and it will be the basis of the nw Martian culture. That is why the USA tends to be called the anglosphere like Australia and Canada. But Quebec is french orientated and South America Spanish and Portugese orientated. Language has a lot to do with this but it is also what is behind the language the points of view that it is based on.

So it comes down to control and colonisation rates. Certainly if western orientated states are the prime colonisers and control the certain most important strategic points on Mars then they will dominate the emerging martian cultures.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-29 11:27:52

And we want to get a system of democracy out there. If the Chinese get out their first with the most, they will reproduce their own system of government which is a form of dictatorship, or a self-perpetuating one-party oligarchy. If we are the second wave to colonize the solar system, we must then adapt to the societies that are already out their and obey their rules. The Solar System is a big place and I don't want the future of the human race to be decided by self-perpetuating oligarchical one-party states or dictators. We humans must get out from under the thumb of the world's dictators, we've been oppressed by them for way too long.

SpaceNut · 2006-11-29 18:30:19

China Moon Probe Readied For Next Year Liftoff

If this article proves that China can get to the moon first with there probe and the US LRO will follow a year later, then the US does lose the race with unmanned at that point.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2006-11-30 06:11:35

And we want to get a system of democracy out there. If the Chinese get out their first with the most, they will reproduce their own system of government which is a form of dictatorship

Asian dictatorships on the Moon ?? What next ??
You're like a broken record with the repetitive Neocon partisan nonsense you constantly come out with, do you know that ? Having you got anything to say about your state of affairs about your OWN COUNTRY before you continue bashing France China, UK Canada, Russia
have you got anything to say about your beloved Republican admin - War vets without benefit, Katrina victims dying or that Bush Dynasty you've got Daddy under Ronnie, Jnr, and then Jeb ready for 2008. If America can't get to Mars before your feared 'Chicoms' do then Tuff Luck Texan - You've been beaten fair and square.

Rxke · 2006-11-30 06:49:30

I voted 'No' to make you think there were Chinese voters amongst us
Seriously, I voted 'no' because it would maybe be good to be beaten to Luna. I mean it's not a landgrab contest as during the time of the exploration of the new world, where one would land and then proclaim the place to be under rule and possession of (insert king of choice here).

There are laws that prohibit that today, signed by most countries around the world and I don't think any country would risk a war over that.

Let them be first, it will only strenghten the resolve of other players to be there TOO, out in force, and not a mere flag and footprints charade.

Grypd · 2006-11-30 08:19:05

Seriously, I voted 'no' because it would maybe be good to be beaten to Luna

Ah but this is a poll on should the US lose the race to Mars. It certainly cannot be beaten to the Moon can it

There are laws that prohibit that today, signed by most countries around the world and I don't think any country would risk a war over that.

Yes the 1967 Outer Space treaty. What a really vague treaty, does it allow private ownership of extraterrestial real estate or not? In my view it does not allow ownership but it does allow the use of and ensures non interference. It is that term non interference where the real problem with the treaty comes down to.

I land a robot on Phobos but so later does NASA I claim my mission is being interfered with and so NASA by nature of the treaty must either leave or take the case to the international court of justice.

There are points in the solar system where an advantage is gained by ownership or in the spirit of the treaty stewardship. Mars has the two Moons which allow for potential space stations as well as fuel stops. Olympus Mons is simply the best place for the placing of any Martian space elevator.

The Outer space treaty needs to be firmed or replaced but there is a lot of resistance to this.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-30 09:34:42

And we want to get a system of democracy out there. If the Chinese get out their first with the most, they will reproduce their own system of government which is a form of dictatorship
Asian dictatorships on the Moon ?? What next ??
You're like a broken record with the repetitive Neocon partisan nonsense you constantly come out with, do you know that ? Having you got anything to say about your state of affairs about your OWN COUNTRY before you continue bashing France China, UK Canada, Russia
have you got anything to say about your beloved Republican admin - War vets without benefit, Katrina victims dying or that Bush Dynasty you've got Daddy under Ronnie, Jnr, and then Jeb ready for 2008. If America can't get to Mars before your feared 'Chicoms' do then Tuff Luck Texan - You've been beaten fair and square.

At least its a Bush Dynasty we elected. in China I hear, the Communist Party chooses its own and the Chinese people have got no choice except that which the Communist Party allows them. China has come a long way, but it is still a one-party state, it doesn't matter whether that party is called "Communist" or not, what is true is that those people who hold power in government will do everything they can to stay in power, and in China that means guarding the levers of power very carefully, and not allowing the people any say in choosing the government. Any movement by China into space will be a way for those in power to aggrandize their positions in government and build additional power bases in space. Dictatorship is the simplest form of government and the easiest one to implement, all it requires is for one to have control over the military and by pointing the guns at the people, he can make laws and be judge jury and executioner if need be. Setting up a democratic system with checks and balances requires much more work. It would be good if we can get to Mars first and set up a democratic government their so that others that follow would have to abide by the laws of this democracy, rather than the other way around where a dictatorship gets set up and additional settlers must learn to bow to the authority. I'd just rather not have Empires in Space, I am a Republican and that is the type of government I prefer, and naturally that implies getting there first.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-11-30 09:41:24

I voted 'No' to make you think there were Chinese voters amongst us
Seriously, I voted 'no' because it would maybe be good to be beaten to Luna. I mean it's not a landgrab contest as during the time of the exploration of the new world, where one would land and then proclaim the place to be under rule and possession of (insert king of choice here).
There are laws that prohibit that today, signed by most countries around the world and I don't think any country would risk a war over that.
Let them be first, it will only strenghten the resolve of other players to be there TOO, out in force, and not a mere flag and footprints charade.

Becareful of what you wish for. If China gets ahead, with its large population base and its rapidly expanding economy, it will be very hard for the United States to play catch up. The United States is like a runner in a race, it is out ahead of the pack, but China is out behind, running faster, and will eventually close the distance and pass the US if it doesn't reach the finishline soon. I would like for the US to establish a toehold on the Moon and Mars first, and from there it will be much easier to expand the transportation system using existing technology. When China is fully developed, it will have more scientists and engineers than we have. We must take full advantage of the head start we have now, because that advantage will not always be there, we've already wasted too much time, and its about time we got serious in this space race to settle the Solar System.

dicktice · 2006-11-30 19:15:16

Wait just a darn minute, until I re-read your last few posts, Tom....

dicktice · 2006-11-30 19:15:54

Let's see, you wrote: "... its about time we got serious in this space race to settle the Solar System." Holy cow! What happened to the race to settle the Moon, not to mention the Mars race, that we've been ranting about? And just after having read that you "would rather not have Empires in Space." How you do go on....

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-12-01 12:32:23

Let's see, you wrote: "... its about time we got serious in this space race to settle the Solar System." Holy cow! What happened to the race to settle the Moon, not to mention the Mars race, that we've been ranting about? And just after having read that you "would rather not have Empires in Space." How you do go on....

The trick to getting to the Moon or Mars is the Ability to move through space, it is the settlement of the Solar System that were talking about. If you can go to Mars, you can also reach the Asteroids and the Moon, its not much harder to reach Jupiter if you can already establish a substantial presence on Mars, you will have by then achieved significant space travel infrastructure and that ability will open up new vistas for the space colonizing nation, and there is alot more room in space than on Earth or Mars. the ability to send people to Mars implies the ability to inhabit space itself, and Mars is just a benchmark for this.

We should break out into space and establish some colonies before China catches up to us, after that, when the colonies are already established then it will be the newcomers what must adapt to what's already been set up before. We need to create a new civilization in Space that reflects our values, and better our values than China's totalitarian ones I say.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2007-01-02 08:21:11

I assume the poll should be
'Will we beat China to Mars'

and I vote No
as long as George keep running up huge deficts, a civil war sees Arab people that keep dying for no reason and George keeps burning billions of dollars in his quest to bring democracy to places that have now fallen apart. Think about it, can Islam and Democracy really co-exist ?

Chinese have a very young space program but as long as GW Jnr keeps shooting himself in the foot, I think China has a got chance at turning Mars into a real Red-Planet.

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#1 2006-11-24 09:37:59

Re: The Race with China

#2 2006-11-24 14:32:00

Re: The Race with China

#3 2006-11-25 02:37:52

Re: The Race with China

#4 2006-11-25 08:32:16

Re: The Race with China

#5 2006-11-25 08:37:57

Re: The Race with China

#6 2006-11-25 16:10:44

Re: The Race with China

#7 2006-11-26 00:31:24

Re: The Race with China

#8 2006-11-26 08:07:58

Re: The Race with China

#9 2006-11-26 11:22:07

Re: The Race with China

#10 2006-11-26 12:52:32

Re: The Race with China

#11 2006-11-27 19:22:04

Re: The Race with China

#12 2006-11-28 09:20:04

Re: The Race with China

#13 2006-11-28 20:45:10

Re: The Race with China

#14 2006-11-29 08:24:35

Re: The Race with China

#15 2006-11-29 11:27:52

Re: The Race with China

#16 2006-11-29 18:30:19

Re: The Race with China

#17 2006-11-30 06:11:35

Re: The Race with China

#18 2006-11-30 06:49:30

Re: The Race with China

#19 2006-11-30 08:19:05

Re: The Race with China

#20 2006-11-30 09:34:42

Re: The Race with China

#21 2006-11-30 09:41:24

Re: The Race with China

#22 2006-11-30 19:15:16

Re: The Race with China

#23 2006-11-30 19:15:54

Re: The Race with China

#24 2006-12-01 12:32:23

Re: The Race with China

#25 2007-01-02 08:21:11

Re: The Race with China

Board footer