Wild Cards

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-10-07 16:35:24

This is my base timeline, I think it is quite plausible and doable, but what are the wildcards that might alter this? For example what happens if a Space Elevator is constructed within thie timeframe, or how about if a full scale scramjet is tested? What other wildcards can you think of that would make the timeline below obsolete?

Timeline
2010 Space Shuttle is Retired
2014 Space Station missions completed
2016 First Crewed Mission since Apollo 17
2016 Second Crewed Mission to Moon
2017 Third Crewed Mission to Moon
2017 Fourth Crewed Mission to Moon
2018 Assembly of Mars Ship in orbit.
2018 Fifth Crewed Mission to Moon
2018 Sixth Crewed Mission to Moon
2019 First Crewed Mission to Mars
2019 Seventh Crewed Mission to Moon
2019 Eighth Crewed Mission to Moon
2020 Ninth Crewed Mission to Moon
2020 Tenth Crewed Mission to Moon
2021 Second Crewed Mission to Mars
2021 First Crewed Mission to Mars Completed
2021 Eleventh Crewed Mission to the Moon
2021 Twelveth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2022 Thirteenth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2022 Fourteenth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2023 Third Crewed Mission to Mars
2023 Second Crewed Mission to Mars Completed
2023 Fifthteenth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2023 Sixteenth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2024 Seventeenth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2024 Eighteenth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2025 Fourth Crewed Mission to Mars
2025 Third Crewed Mission to Mars Completed

dicktice · 2006-10-07 20:07:34

I like it! (I'll be 100 in 2025.)

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-10-07 21:14:34

Here are a few wild cards to consider:

Robotics/Artificial Intelligence by 2015 or 2020
Thermonuclear Fusion by 2015 or 2020
Nanotechnology
Space elevators
Scram Jets
Suspended Animation
Advanced Genetics

How might these things affect the time table?

Martin_Tristar · 2006-10-08 00:03:26

Wild cards :

Government Williness to continue the development towards mars
Terrorism into full scale wars across the world
Worldwide Hunger, Disease and Homelessness from war

Before we get to technical or other factors

cIclops · 2006-10-08 02:20:41

If you want real wild cards try these:

2006 NASA space exploration budget increased to $15B (total budget $27B)
2008 Ares I first test flight
2009 Ares V first test flight
2010 First Ares I manned flight
2011 First Ares I / Ares V / LSAM lunar test flight with crew
2012 Seventh lunar landing
2013 Eighth & ninth lunar landings
2014 First manned NEO mission
2016 First Mars Landing with Zubrin onboard

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-10-08 08:32:01

Wild cards :
Government Williness to continue the development towards mars
Terrorism into full scale wars across the world
Worldwide Hunger, Disease and Homelessness from war
Before we get to technical or other factors

That won't affect a Humans to Mars Program unless nuclear weapons are used by the enemy, then it would be called World War III. Wars such as the Veitnam War produced a surge in interest in going to the Moon that only declined when support for the Vietnam War also declined.

Besides these are mere political developments. The World has always been a mess, and no amount of effort is going to fix it. Politics as usual aren't the real wild cards. The truly unpredictable developments are when technological advanced are going to occur. If the World's people make an ass of themselves, blow themselves up and starve for no reason, the US will just keep chugging along, the only time the cause a problem for us is when we get bogged down trying to solve them.

SpaceNut · 2006-10-08 08:40:36

The finding of organic life in a Mars sample return...
This could be a show stopper depending on if it would be harmful to us when we are there.
Side issue would be that if this organism is capable of expanded growth when it gets here and escapes its lab area...
I realise that these are possibly a little sci fi in nature and may never pose a risk to anyone...

The initial timetable or even the alternative one they would be wonderful but it does need funding to stay stable, developement from the orion program for on orbit build of mars ship and the continue support to continue once started.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-10-08 09:20:18

I always viewed Mars as a sort of benchmark for our technological abilities. The ability to get there is more important than whats on the planet. After we developed that ability, we have the ability to do many other things that we couldn't before. Mars is our posterboy for generating interest in developing an interplanetary transportation system.

Commodore · 2006-10-08 21:12:52

There is a big danger in abandoning the Moon too soon as the focus of manned exploration. The development of lunar surface systems is viatl to making Mars missions worthwhile. We must have a permenantly manned outpost capable of independant growth on the Moon before turning our attention to Mars. That way when we do go to Mars, we don't repeat the mistakes of Apollo, and can instead forever stamp ourselves on the red dust of Mars in one conserted effort.

The key wild card is how far the Chinese get in their program in the years ahead. They, in the next couple years are going to take big leaps in terms of manned launches, space walks, and small stations. How we respond is going to make the difference. We can either speed up by properly funding the VSE independant of the Shuttle program in the 2008-2011 time frame, putting us on course for a 2015-16 lunar landing and a high sortie rate, and solid plans for lunar outposts, or continue our agonizing pace and risk falling behind.

I want us to take our time on the Moon, so all the world can see what it means to scrape out an existance on another world. A steady effort in the 20's and 30's will make real, meaningful expeditions to Mars in the 40's a reality. Then, the whole Solar System will be open to us.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-10-09 00:27:16

There is a big danger in abandoning the Moon too soon as the focus of manned exploration. The development of lunar surface systems is viatl to making Mars missions worthwhile. We must have a permenantly manned outpost capable of independant growth on the Moon before turning our attention to Mars. That way when we do go to Mars, we don't repeat the mistakes of Apollo, and can instead forever stamp ourselves on the red dust of Mars in one conserted effort.
The key wild card is how far the Chinese get in their program in the years ahead. They, in the next couple years are going to take big leaps in terms of manned launches, space walks, and small stations. How we respond is going to make the difference. We can either speed up by properly funding the VSE independant of the Shuttle program in the 2008-2011 time frame, putting us on course for a 2015-16 lunar landing and a high sortie rate, and solid plans for lunar outposts, or continue our agonizing pace and risk falling behind.
I want us to take our time on the Moon, so all the world can see what it means to scrape out an existance on another world. A steady effort in the 20's and 30's will make real, meaningful expeditions to Mars in the 40's a reality. Then, the whole Solar System will be open to us.

Why do you want to colonize the Solar System sequentially and not concurrantly? Surely as our economy grows we can accomodate both programs, as the same hardware to some extent is used by both. We should also reduce the costs of getting to both the Moon and Mars.

The Wildcards I mention are the ones that make space travel cheaper. The assumptions in my timeline and yours of a manned expedition in 2040 is that technology stays the same. My timeline is a base assumption, it assumes that starting tomorrow all technological advancement stops.

What happens if a ribbon is developed that can be used for a space elevator in 2015?
2016 An Ares is readied and and launches first crewed moon mission since Apollo.
2016 Liftport or aome other company starts production of nanotube ribbon and fabric, it is sold for many different uses, including ballistic armor, and flush with success Liftport orders an Ares V booster from Lockheed
2016 Second Crewed Mission to the Moon
2017 Third Crewed Mission to the Moon
2017 Fourth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2018 Liftports Ares V rocket is finally ready, the load a spool of nanotube ribbon onboard, they rent one of the Kennedy Space Centers Launch pads and the Ares V rocket lifts into space carrying the spool and the deployment satellite into an equatorial orbit. The spool begins to unreel, solar panels are deployed powering the process.
2018 Fifth Crewed Mission to Moon
2018 Sixth Crewed Mission to Moon
2019 First Crewed Mission to Mars
2019 The end of the ribbon reaches into the atmosphere lowered towards a floating liftport space center using a converted oil platform
2019 Seventh Crewed Mission to Moon
2019 Eighth Crewed Mission to Moon
2020 Ninth Crewed Mission to Moon
2020 Lift Port Space Center begins operations, lifting another ribbon up into orbit and then stitching them together.
2020 Tenth Crewed Mission to Moon
2021 The lift port Space elevator begins commercial operation
2021 Liftport presents NASA with a proposal for a cheaper mission to Mars
2021 Second Crewed Mission to Mars
2021 First Crewed Mission to Mars Completed
2021 Preparations for the third Crewed Mission to Mars begins using a lift port elevator
2021 Eleventh Crewed Mission to the Moon
2021 Twelveth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2022 Thirteenth Crewed Mission to the Moon
2022 Fourteenth Crewed Mission to the Moon is launched via a LiftPort Space Elevator.
2023 Third Crewed Mission to Mars
2023 A Martian Space elevator is lifted spooled up by the Liftport space elevator. The Martian Spool is brought to Mars orbit and is unspooled with a Martian Hab tethered to its end. The ribbon unspools and lowers the Hab onto the Martian Surface. The Ascent stage sits on top of the Hab, neigther contain rocket fuel or rockets
2025 The ascent Stage climbs the Martain tether, docks with the interplanetary vessel and them returns to Earth
2027 A crewed Mission to Venus is launched, a Venusian tether is brought into orbit around Venus and it unspools lowering an end into Venus' upper atmosphere, an Airship is inflated and a crew pilots it around Venus' atmosphere controling rovers on the surface and returning samples to the Venusian tether to be lifted back into orbit and returned to Earth.

Martin_Tristar · 2006-10-09 00:32:16

Tom,

Politics stop the last time to the Moon, and it could stop it again, unless the world is forced to continue having issues that means the need for space exploration and colonization.

Katrina has cost upwards of $100 Billion or more, what about a global disasters equal or greater than that on all land masses. It doesn't need nuclear weapons , a hurriance Cat 5 can do the damage, several could wipe out cities, earthquakes, volcanoes can do it as well, again not nuclear weapons, In indonesia they are having issues with sulphoric mud that is coming up that has destroyed 1000 + buildings and increasing it might follow for decades up to a century, if it can't be stopped , what about the damage to the water supplies in the world and food stocks that could start hunger because of the toxic issues with this mud. Our economies work together across the world, and can become unstable with major issues effecting them.

All these issues could effect the outcomes for a Mars Program because it is optional expenditure and not essential to human life on this planet and that comes first in all governments eyes. ( REMEMBER THAT !!!!!)

We don't know what this world will offer us over the next 24 hours how can we determined 1 or 2 decades ahead, you can plan but you need to look at all contigencies including loss of funding and redirection of resources , personnel, and facilities in any strategic plans particular to the mission for Mars and beyond.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-10-09 08:25:57

Politics is weaker at stopping the Space Race than it once was. It is the 21st century! Do you think an act of Congress can stop the Chinese? Indonesia's problems are Indonesia's, we're not going to stop our space program in order to fork over additional money to them.

All these issues could effect the outcomes for a Mars Program because it is optional expenditure and not essential to human life on this planet and that comes first in all governments eyes. ( REMEMBER THAT !!!!!)

International aide does not come before our space program. The way the World Community has raked us over the coals, they can get themselves out of their own troubles. I don't see how cancelling our space program is going to help them in any case. The alliance system has mostly meant US spending on Foreign countries that don't reciprocate and do nothing but condemn us as "Imperialist Aggressors". Why should we help out countries like that? If they don't like us, then they can solve their own problems.

A Mars program is an investment in the future, it will enable us to project US influence out into the Solar System, and its purpose is so we stay ahead of the curb in space exploration, exploitation and transportation. $27 billion is not going to solve any of the World's problems. Canceling the Apollo program didn't solve the Worlds problems then, and stopping space exploration isn't going to solve the world's problems now.

Seems like you just looking for reasons not to explore Mars. I think its not a question of whether we go, but of whether we go or the Chinese get their first. Do you want the US to be a left behind has been power like many countries in Europe? We either spread our civilization into space or the Chinese will spread theirs without us.

As helpful as the World has been with the Iraq War, I don't think we ought to cancel our space program for the rest of the World.

Martin_Tristar · 2006-10-11 00:01:56

you asked for wild cards that could effect the outcomes for a Mars Program, I didn't say that the space program would be dead, It can be modified or reduced or changed via political decision , and I don't care what country you are talking about.

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-10-11 01:57:08

One can always think up an endless series of disasters that could set back the space program.

Asteroid collision

Nuclear War

Bioengineered Plague

Super volcano

Terrorism

etc etc, the result of all these things is always the same, no progress or expansion into space. I'm already aware of these possibilities.

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#1 2006-10-07 16:35:24

Re: Wild Cards

#2 2006-10-07 20:07:34

Re: Wild Cards

#3 2006-10-07 21:14:34

Re: Wild Cards

#4 2006-10-08 00:03:26

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#5 2006-10-08 02:20:41

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#6 2006-10-08 08:32:01

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#7 2006-10-08 08:40:36

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#8 2006-10-08 09:20:18

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#9 2006-10-08 21:12:52

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#10 2006-10-09 00:27:16

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#11 2006-10-09 00:32:16

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#12 2006-10-09 08:25:57

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#13 2006-10-11 00:01:56

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#14 2006-10-11 01:57:08

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