Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

Commodore · 2006-03-24 21:46:25

I think each agency/nation/block should build their own, ideally.

Other than that, I think that the ISS has taught us that the chief user has to build it themselves, in big, self-seffiecnt chunks and be capable of being expanded. Others can add pieces in a supporting, or add-on role.

GCNRevenger · 2006-03-24 21:49:10

Or at the very least, don't bother with this piecemeal construction business unless you've got a true, no kidding, really-no-fooling medium RLV.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-03-26 11:04:06

You've all forgotten another launcher they are looking at its called Ariane-2010 or Ariane-BeyondPluto, it would be 30,000 kg plus to LEO.
Europe has its eyes on the outer-planets but after NASA started considering cuts to Voyager and CRAF the ESA started look at using Ariane to launch its own missions such as Rosetta and 'Beyond Pluto'.

http://www2.dlr.de/lido/EN-RA/2000/1803582000.html
Ariane 2010 and RLV 2020
http://www.esa.int/gsp/ACT/doc/paperAAS03_210Pluto.pdf
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/arie2010.htm
Ariane-TwentyTen ( Vulcan 3 and the Vinci 200 ) would lift some of the largest payloads into orbit its GTO is about 16,000 kg and LEO might be about 29,000kg or 38,000 kg to LEO depending how much they want out of it.
Ariane-2010 might be used for the IHP or Interstellar Heliopause Probe.

IHP info
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object … ctid=36022
The main focus is on heliospheric physics in the outer heliosphere and local interstellar medium. This requires that the IHP travel a distance of 200 AU from the Sun. This challenging mission profile will require a set of enabling technologies that are not only of benefit for this type of mission, but also for outer planetary missions.

EuroLauncher · 2006-03-27 08:41:42

Robcwillis this is going to definitly veer into what is politics but any consideration of the use of international partners to develop the Moon/Mars Initiative will have to be a political discussion.
Russia has used its leverage over the ISS to inflict costly (to the USA) victories in public and financial causes. The US has learned that with international partners things cost more and the compromises that are needed usually lead to a weakened project. The ISS is in the wrong orbit to support the Moon Mars programme so the Russians could launch to it.
But also incidentally other space powers have discovered that working with the USA is a bad thing and are less likely to want to do so in the future. ESA and JAXA both have major science modules sitting in a warehouse slowly reaching obscelescence. Certainly in the case of the ESA science module the original plan and up until guite late in development was to launch this module from an Arianne and it was to be able to move itself into position it was also to have its own power and atmosphere. In short a spacestation within a spacestation. But due to NASA and its order that all modules must be delivered by the Shuttle a lot had to be cut out of the plan. And with the problems of the shuttle all the money spent is at the moment wasted.
Add to this other things like the current furore over the JSF and you see that for NASA getting partners would not necassarily be as easy as it was for the ISS programme.

Recent test-firings have confirmed the reliability of the Vinci cryogenic rocket motor, which could find use powering the European Vega and Ariane 5 lifting bodies, CNES said in a statement late last week.
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Vin … Tests.html
The Vinci engine uses an expander cycle that avoids the use of gas generators to drive its turbopumps, thereby reducing the risk of explosions and enhancing both reliability and safety, the French space agency said. Vinci's hydrogen turbopump, the size of a small backpack, produces 2.5 Megawatts of power.

Grypd · 2006-03-27 13:36:53

Yes but the Vinci cryogenic engine is designed for the Vega which is a light launcher and is not man rated. It is also for use on the third stage of the Arianne 5 ECA as a means to slightly increase its launch capacity.

For ESA the need when they come to there own manned missions is for another Arianne capable of launching 50+ tons. This is a political decision to develop as Arianne space and ESA have made a good show of being commercially driven applying there launching techniques to Commercial satelites. This means that for all that they are already involved in science missions they have a positive cash flow coming in.

Manned missions are cash hogs and they will need a commitment from ESA and her political masters.

publiusr · 2006-03-29 15:12:30

From the web:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums … 1&posts=40

Nice quote from there:

There's a pdf from 2004 that discusses lunar exploration with current and slightly enhanced Ariane 5 variants:

http://www.astron.nl/p/news/LO/Iranzo_A … rkshop.ppt

The currently flying Ariane 5 ECA can only put 2.2 tonnes of payload on the moon's surface (this number doesn't include the descent stage mass). Ariane 5 ECB could put over 3 t with direct lunar transfer injection (no stop in LEO) but the upper stage Vinci engine is currently on hold. (It's an expander engine, like RL-10 but more thrust and slightly better ISP, compared to the current ECA HM7B gas-generator engine.) They assume storable propellant stages for lunar orbit insertion and descent.

The rockets are currently designed for GTO launch, and can put only 20 to 23 t in LEO. They discuss some enhancements, like increasing Vinci thrust, composite casing for the solid boosters and making a Vulcain III main engine with 13s better ISP. This would make the LEO payload 27 t, but there'd be dynamic pressure issues.

Then there's a brief mention of a 1991 study "Ariane Super Lourd", with 4 solids, 5 Vulcain II main engines, one Vulcain II second stage and 35 t lunar transfer orbit mass. It tapers up like a Saturn V.

I don't dare copy-paste any pictures from it...

I personally don't endorse building rockets from ground up for just some lunar missions that are performed less than ten times.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2006-03-29 15:32:19

To me the ideal situation would be if both the US and the EU/Russian alliance develop HLLV, but the US builds the only ITV necessary for the transit to Mars. We could then sell these to ESA/RSA at cost or for other considerations, but the US would be the a political veto option this time.

What date are the Russians launching from South America or Guiana ?

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-03-29 18:05:33

I quote the website
http://www.starsem.com/soyuz/soyuzst.htm
Following the construction of a new Soyuz launch pad coordinated between the European, French and Russian S pace Agencies, the launch vehicle's inaugural flight from the European Space Port is scheduled for 2008.

Still no official word on a heavy lift beyond Ariane-V

MarsDog · 2006-04-02 13:57:21

Strange how you see offshoring to China, Europe, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia as a national crime but at the same time you vigorously defend outsourcing SPACE EXPLORATION TO INDIA

Has to do with US and India starting an ati Muslim alliance.

US wants to outsource, so as to limit immigration.
Just think what would happen if hi teck jobs were filled with immigrants,
as is the case with low paying jobs for Mexicans.

And nobody is outsourcing anything big elsewhere, and you can be assured of this for no other reason then Congress would not tollerate the NASA gravy train going overseas.

Dilemma; cannot import skilled people as needed,
cannot outsource due political consequences.

SpaceNut · 2006-04-02 20:03:09

Strange how you see offshoring to China, Europe, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia as a national crime but at the same time you vigorously defend outsourcing SPACE EXPLORATION TO INDIA
Has to do with US and India starting an ati Muslim alliance.
US wants to outsource, so as to limit immigration.
Just think what would happen if hi teck jobs were filled with immigrants,
as is the case with low paying jobs for Mexicans.
And nobody is outsourcing anything big elsewhere, and you can be assured of this for no other reason then Congress would not tollerate the NASA gravy train going overseas.
Dilemma; cannot import skilled people as needed,
cannot outsource due political consequences.

But you could relocate jobs to locations within the US where labor costs are cheaper (less Unions)...

EuroLauncher · 2006-04-07 22:04:51

]Has to do with US and India starting an ati Muslim alliance.
US wants to outsource, so as to limit immigration.
Just think what would happen if hi teck jobs were filled with immigrants,

It's a failed strategy that has been a failure during past Empires, I think the US is on the way out much like the ancient Greeks...Bush almost has the nation bankrupt and the place is up for sale now
oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

The world's lone superpower the USA and world's police-force is on the way out. In theory Europe could take its place, the Europeans already have been working on an constitution and there is the EU-Euro economic zone, and they could have an army that would make the old Soviet USSR's seem small. Each nation or State within Europe is very well equipped and some European states have some of the strongest armies, with British battleships, high tech choppers, French Nukes, Polish military using Soviet tech, the Spanish infantry, German fighter aircraft and if you were to compare the military of each European state with each American one the Europeans would have a much more powerful army.
However Europe has deep politcal problems and is very divided, Europe would rather than becoming United like the USA did instead will easily break down into quarreling and bickering European states and will just fight against each other.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4882332.stm
I hope the Ariane-M gets built long before then.

America has lost its way, it has become confused and now needs to sort out its domestic problems quick ( Dutch might help 'em build a Levee ) unless it wants to be out of the game for the next 50 years while a bunch of camel-jackers are now dishing out a beating to the 'Best Equipped' Army and Bush was even to chicken to stand with the Danes while a bunch of Jihadists screamed fatwa over a bunch of funny cartoons. Well, so much for the aslyum seekers that ran away from these mad-houses and came to live in the 'land with freedoom of expression' and the 'home of the brave'
So it seems the US is going away now,
http://www.comicon.com/pulse/images_05a … _large.jpg
falling down a dark hole with the rest of the zealots in Arabia. Due to internal problems a United Europe will fail to take its place while the next 100 years might very well be a Chinese-century

GCNRevenger · 2006-04-08 08:22:14

People keep on saying that America is "entering decline" yaddah yaddah for decades, and then you know what? It still hasn't happend. We still have the strongest economy in the world, while Europe falters daily and China is about to learn what happens when their hunger for growth outstrips their ability to support it. Infact, our unemployment rate keeps dropping, while Europe's skyrockets. In a few decades, barring a radical European turn-around, the whole region will become (on the average) a second-world land.

People keep on whining about our debt, pointing at the huge sum and declaring us doomed: but again I tell you, that absolute dollar figure is meaningless, and our debt relative to our economic strength has not increased signifigantly since the "blessed Clinton" years despite Iraq.

Comparing American states to European ones is meaningless, the American states never really were independant soverign states like Europe's, this is a bone-headed statement.

And please, a European mega-military? Hardly, they are not well equipped, not a single European country has any real air-lift or inflight refueling capability, no strateigic bombers, France's only Nimitz-comparble carrier has never left port under its own power, only the UK has a really modern tank, nobody in Europe has anything like Ageis warship radar, and the cheif European fighter (Eurofighter) is nowhere near as good as the F-22 and its even armed with US missiles. About the only thing the European military has going for it are a modest number of decently armed British troops, French submarines, and Polish commandos.

But none of this is any real concern, since Europe generally doesn't have the will to use their power when its needed, instead preferring the utterly spineless and hopelessly useless "soft power," like they are bringing to bare on Iran. No no, Europe will be premptively and agressively throwing itself under the boot of tyrants and resolutely and unwaveringly begging him not to hurt them... Or at the very least, cowar behind British and French nuclear missles while letting the rest of the world burn.

But its really already a lost cause, at least for western Europe... in their blindness, whether from desperation of wholesale depopulation or just suicidally liberal immigration policies have permitted into their states self-sustaining numbers of African and Asian Muslims to settle there. It is really a very simple matter: these people are not going to integrate, since their culture and religion mandate that other people must integrate with them, and these people are out-breeding native Europeans like crazy.

The demographics have killed Europe, they just don't know it (or won't admit it) yet; to sustain a population, that is just to keep it steady and not decline, you need every woman to have an average of 2.1 children. Germany and France are below 1.5, while the immigrants are well above 3.0. In fifty years, ethnic Germans, French, and Britons will all be minorities in addition to being an endangered species. Japan is likewise threatend with extinction, ethnic Japanese are dying out too.

America on the other hand, the signifigant illegal immgration is bad but at least these people will probobly assimilate given chance and encouragement to do so plus nominally share Judeo-Christian/Capitalist values. The American population is holding steady overall at around 300M.

I'd also like to mention a word about New Orleans, that the world points it finger at that and gloats: well, thats because things don't work the same way over here. Here we give signifigant defference to local authority, and in the case of New Orleans this authority was corrupt or incompetant and failed in its duty to protect the city before or after the levies broke. Tens of millions of dollars for levies went into buying private jets and whatnot for levie officals, and Mayor Nagin or the Govenor Blanco failed to evacuate the city until only one day prior to the biggest hurricane in a decade was going to hit (the below sea level city) despite having hundreds of school busses on hand (which were subsequently inundated). They also failed to understand, despite Nagin being a native New Orleanian, that "encouraging" people to leave would not work and obstinate or destitute people would remain.

The federal response to the disaster was about as fast as it was for other hurricanes, and it was the state and city governments that were responsable for the human tragedy. With the power that America gives to its local leaders also comes responsability, and in this they failed, not America.

cIclops · 2006-04-08 13:42:59

People keep on saying that America is "entering decline" yaddah yaddah for decades, and then you know what? It still hasn't happend. We still have the strongest economy in the world, while Europe falters daily
<snip>
The demographics have killed Europe, they just don't know it (or won't admit it) yet; to sustain a population, that is just to keep it steady and not decline, you need every woman to have an average of 2.1 children. Germany and France are below 1.5, while the immigrants are well above 3.0. In fifty years, ethnic Germans, French, and Britons will all be minorities in addition to being an endangered species.

Congratulations on writing such a long post without any mention whatsoever of Mars or space

Whereas I do agree with your main point that the US is far from decline, your repetition of the argument about Europe's decline does not stand up well to the numbers. Europe's economy is very new and highly fragmented, its currency is barely 5 years old, yet it already has a GDP close to the US ... about $12 Trillion. The slow process of market integration is happening even as new states are joining, there is no doubt that the EU will outstrip the US economically eventually, and if it gets its act together that may be well within 10 years. The current population is 454 million and will grow much more with the admission of Turkey and eastern European states. It's hard to see where the expansion will end, North African states are now being considered as well new states such as Ukraine. Even Russia may join bringing the total population close to 1 billion. BTW most of Europe's population are Caucasian unlike the US with its rapidly growing Hispanic and Asian populations as well as a large black group. If you compare Caucasian US birth rates you'll see that they are not much higher than European levels, and according to the latest statistics already at or below replacement rate.

I won't comment on Europe's political unity as there's almost nothing to say about it. :>

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2006-04-08 15:42:24

People keep on saying that America is "entering decline" yaddah yaddah for decades, and then you know what? It still hasn't happend. We still have the strongest economy in the world, while Europe falters daily
<snip>
The demographics have killed Europe, they just don't know it (or won't admit it) yet; to sustain a population, that is just to keep it steady and not decline, you need every woman to have an average of 2.1 children. Germany and France are below 1.5, while the immigrants are well above 3.0. In fifty years, ethnic Germans, French, and Britons will all be minorities in addition to being an endangered species.
Congratulations CGN on writing such a long post without any mention whatsoever of Mars or space
Whereas I do agree with your main point that the US is far from decline, your repetition of the argument about Europe's decline does not stand up well to the numbers. Europe's economy is very new and highly fragmented, its currency is barely 5 years old, yet it already has a GDP close to the US ... about $12 Trillion. The slow process of market integration is happening even as new states are joining, there is no doubt that the EU will outstrip the US economically eventually, and if it gets its act together that may be well within 10 years. The current population is 454 million and will grow much more with the admission of Turkey and eastern European states. It's hard to see where the expansion will end, North African states are now being considered as well new states such as Ukraine. Even Russia may join bringing the total population close to 1 billion. BTW most of Europe's population are Caucasian unlike the US with its rapidly growing Hispanic and Asian populations. If you compare Caucasian US birth rates you'll see that they are not much higher than European levels, and according to the latest statistics already at or below replacement rate.
I won't comment on Europe's political unity as there's almost nothing to say about it. :>

Exactly the Europe economy is pretty damn good when compared to the USA, both the World Bank and IMF list the EU has the strongest economy on Earth but the Europeans do not have a superpower state as cIclops points out political unity in Europe is almost non-existant. As for GCN comparing the US military with European, the US Air Force chief of staff has already flown the stealthy Eurofighter and stealth Raptor and he thinks them both to be very comparable aircraft the only trouble is the F/A-22 has such an outrageous price-tag that not even the US military can afford it. On military matters the Europeans are sometimes better equipped, they've got great German Tank builders and that US Ageis warship is nothing but a bucket of bolts waiting to be sent to Davy-Jones Locker when its is compared to power of ICBMs, high tech Subs, Stealth bombers, Exocets and Cruise missiles. Without the back-up of aircraft and land forces, Ships are nothing but sitting ducks just check out the time when the USA was friends with Saddam back in the 80s and early 90s and an Iraqi aircraft accidentally fired two missiles against the US Navy thinking they were an Iranian, the US Ships could not defend themselves and were nothing but sitting ducks waiting to be sunk down to Davy-Jones Locker.

As for our Euro pals in space, I am cautiously optimistic. They've got good technology, done good robotic missions and have a powerful economy but they lack manned missions and the European space exploration lacks political backing...every couple of years somebody like Blair or Chirac may or may not casually mention space in some vague manner but I would imagine that European nations would happily back the idea of a robotic Mars Sample Return.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-04-08 17:10:09

"Fortunately, most Americans are not like you. They would be proud to see Americans and their partners going to the Moon on perfectly good American and Euro-Russian Rockets."
Then you have alot of learn about Americans, since you obviously don't know how much national pride is embodied in our space program. To see on television the first astronauts go to the Moon in fourty years or Mars for the first time in a rocket with a big EU or Russian flag on the side instead of the Stars & Stripes? I think I might be ill.

What other bad-thing could happen in the next 30 years ? Maybe the Russians or Chinese might send some Iranians to the Moon to do something naughty to the US flag ?
http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/burning_flag.jpg
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030327/w3.jpg
http://www.truthout.org/imgs.art_01/3.060605C.jpg
http://www.americanpatrol.com/ATTACKAME … NFLAG.jpeg

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/4 … _ap416.jpg
http://www.openfire.us/blog/archives/im … ngFlag.jpg
http://www.timesunion.com/news/septembe … kistan.jpg
http://www.alarmingnews.com/archives/Pa … 20Flag.jpg
So much for all those great 'One giant Leap' and 'We come in peace for all mankind ' speeches by the Apollo astronauts

cIclops · 2006-04-09 02:58:17

As for our Euro pals in space, I am cautiously optimistic. They've got good technology, done good robotic missions and have a powerful economy but they lack manned missions and the European space exploration lacks political backing...every couple of years somebody like Blair or Chirac may or may not casually mention space in some vague manner but I would imagine that European nations would happily back the idea of a robotic Mars Sample Return.

There is an interesting possibility that Europe may seize on space as a way to unite itself. A large space project may be the answer, it's highly visible, pushes technology and industry ahead and movtivates citizens to work towards a common goal. Europe has the both the money and the technology base to start a big new program, given the political will it could easily outspend NASA. And this would be far more politically acceptable than military spending or yet another bridge or fast railway.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-04-09 05:22:06

It's too soon to expect Europe to do it,
yes they have the cash and they technology but they lack a true universal President or true leader of Europe so don't expect large scale backing unlike the Russians, USA or China
The ESA are doing robotic spacecraft but it badly lacks political will-power to go for the Moon so other than NASA's return vision I'd expect China or Russia do go before Europe

Grypd · 2006-04-10 16:27:33

Europe does have plans to explore the Moon and to use this knowledge to increase there prescence in space.

BBC Europe's Lunar Vision Blooms

Europes plan is to use the information gained from the probe SMART-1 and the so called peaks of "eternal light" to deploy a series of robotic lunar landers and rovers. There intention is also to explore the permanently dark craters at the lunar poles for water. One other interesting point is to plant flowers on the Moon to increase public awareness and support for the space programme.

Commodore · 2006-04-10 18:21:15

They imagine themselves on the moon growing tulips?

Whats next? Trees for wooden shoes?

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-04-10 22:03:16

They imagine themselves on the moon growing tulips?
Whats next? Trees for wooden shoes?

I'm not sure what they are up to, the European is no superpower that status is America's and that superpower potential lies with the Chinese but remember the Dollar ain't so healthy lately. However the EU and Euro-zone is becoming an economic power house and may soon get some kind of near-superpower status. China already regrets the US refusal to cooperate but the Europeans have no problems working with the Chinese and are already doing joint missions with China. The Pentagon has publicly said it considers China's space programme a potential threat to the satellite systems so crucial to US military supremacy. The US deficit has become massive and with costs of Katrina and Iraq clocking up things are getting worse. China already funds the entire American space program through buy up the United States of America's treasury bonds and financing the USA's debts. If the Chinese wanted to wreck America tomorrow they could do it simply by saying they'll buy those Euros instead of greenbacks. Europe contains nations which were might be considered old or ancient superpower nations, it hold the former colonial powers of the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, France and The Netherlands along with other powerful peoples and countries. The Europeans have no real unity and is too politically and culturally fragmented but if considered as a full unit, the EU can be considered a superpower.
The ESA are also doing missions to Venus, Mars and testing ion-drives to the Moon with Smart-1 - ion drives might establish a manned site or unmanned supply and trade route someday thus making the Euro a Galactic currency. Euro nations through history have always had ambitions the Greeks, Napoleon, the Romans have some sort of plan - they have survived this long so you can be sure they are scheming and ploting things right now.

GCNRevenger · 2006-04-11 14:05:07

You are much too optimistic about Europe, its strongest economies are stagnating, and the only real growth will likly be in adding the former Soviet and African states, and eventually the EU will run out of them to absorb and loot. Turkey and African countries will never become an EU member because their culture is incompatible.

The trouble with the European demographic compared to America is the immigrants do not want to assimilate by and large, they want to change Europe into their image, and at this rate they will suceed. Immigrants in America at least nominally share our values. "Political unity" is the least of Europes' problems... which their constitution recently failed, and it looks like France is at least now partially ruled by immigrant mobs.

"the US Air Force chief of staff has already flown the stealthy Eurofighter and stealth Raptor and he thinks them both to be very comparable aircraft"

Thats a lie, the USAF CoS never did any such thing I bet, and even if he did then yes, the two planes handle about the same at subsonic speeds but those don't matter too much in modern air combat, the F-22's superior stealth, radar, and supersonic agility kicks the Eurofighters' tail. One F-22 would easily be worth multiple Eurofighters air-to-air, which makes it a bargain.

"Ageis warship is nothing but a bucket of bolts waiting to be sent to Davy-Jones Locker when its is compared to power of ICBMs, high tech Subs, Stealth bombers, Exocets and Cruise missiles"

Ballistic missiles are useless against warships unless you are talking about nuclear tipped ones, which then of course would result in retaliation. Ageis was designed to shoot down cruise missiles, which it can do quite well. And as bombers go, not even a stealth bomber could slip past the Ageis system to within range. That leaves only torpedos, which you have to get close to use those too, and launching one would be death for the submarine that fired it. Oh, and the destroyer hit by the Iraqi cruise missiles was of an older type not equipped with Ageis.
_______________________________________________

"The US deficit has become massive and with costs of Katrina and Iraq clocking up things are getting worse."

The absolute number of the US debt is meaningless, only its size compared the strength of the economy is. Since our economy is stronger then it was before, a larger debt is not a problem.

"If the Chinese wanted to wreck America tomorrow they could do it simply by saying they'll buy those Euros instead of greenbacks."

Good thing they aren't sold in anything but US dollars... and this is really a fallacy, China is growing so rapidly that it threatens to buckle its own foundations, especially as it is becomming addicted to this unnatural runaway growth.
_______________________________________________

Europe can manage some great things robotically, but without some unified nationalistic fervor or something, they aren't going to unify to do anything expensive with something as trivial to the average citizen as spaceflight.

Commodore · 2006-04-11 16:50:39

Space may be the only way European countries can perserve their ethnic heritage. Otherwise its only a matter of time before they are outbred by Muslim immigrants.

GCNRevenger · 2006-04-11 17:05:37

But that would mean admitting the multi-cult-uralists had it all wrong, and what are the chances of that?

Barring the invention of a space elevator (and probobly with too), such a project would require a US-military scale investment that would, by "definition" of many, be a government-sponsored "racist" enterprise.

Commodore · 2006-04-11 18:38:58

Europe can do it if they set their minds to it, but its a race against time before buckle under the weight of their social programs.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-04-11 23:43:09

People keep on saying that America is "entering decline" yaddah yaddah for decades, and then you know what? It still hasn't happend. We still have the strongest economy in the world, while Europe falters daily
<snip>
The demographics have killed Europe, they just don't know it (or won't admit it) yet; to sustain a population, that is just to keep it steady and not decline, you need every woman to have an average of 2.1 children. Germany and France are below 1.5, while the immigrants are well above 3.0. In fifty years, ethnic Germans, French, and Britons will all be minorities in addition to being an endangered species.
Congratulations CGN on writing such a long post without any mention whatsoever of Mars or space
Whereas I do agree with your main point that the US is far from decline, your repetition of the argument about Europe's decline does not stand up well to the numbers. Europe's economy is very new and highly fragmented, its currency is barely 5 years old, yet it already has a GDP close to the US ... about $12 Trillion. The slow process of market integration is happening even as new states are joining, there is no doubt that the EU will outstrip the US economically eventually, and if it gets its act together that may be well within 10 years. The current population is 454 million and will grow much more with the admission of Turkey and eastern European states. It's hard to see where the expansion will end, North African states are now being considered as well new states such as Ukraine. Even Russia may join bringing the total population close to 1 billion. BTW most of Europe's population are Caucasian unlike the US with its rapidly growing Hispanic and Asian populations. If you compare Caucasian US birth rates you'll see that they are not much higher than European levels, and according to the latest statistics already at or below replacement rate.
I won't comment on Europe's political unity as there's almost nothing to say about it. :>

Exactly the Europe economy is pretty damn good when compared to the USA, both the World Bank and IMF list the EU has the strongest economy on Earth but the Europeans do not have a superpower state as cIclops points out political unity in Europe is almost non-existant. As for GCN comparing the US military with European, the US Air Force chief of staff has already flown the stealthy Eurofighter and stealth Raptor and he thinks them both to be very comparable aircraft the only trouble is the F/A-22 has such an outrageous price-tag that not even the US military can afford it. On military matters the Europeans are sometimes better equipped, they've got great German Tank builders and that US Ageis warship is nothing but a bucket of bolts waiting to be sent to Davy-Jones Locker when its is compared to power of ICBMs, high tech Subs, Stealth bombers, Exocets and Cruise missiles. Without the back-up of aircraft and land forces, Ships are nothing but sitting ducks just check out the time when the USA was friends with Saddam back in the 80s and early 90s and an Iraqi aircraft accidentally fired two missiles against the US Navy thinking they were an Iranian, the US Ships could not defend themselves and were nothing but sitting ducks waiting to be sunk down to Davy-Jones Locker.
As for our Euro pals in space, I am cautiously optimistic. They've got good technology, done good robotic missions and have a powerful economy but they lack manned missions and the European space exploration lacks political backing...every couple of years somebody like Blair or Chirac may or may not casually mention space in some vague manner but I would imagine that European nations would happily back the idea of a robotic Mars Sample Return.

The Aegis is a joke, it could only stop a few old rusty scud missiles and GCNR has been proven to be lying and false yet again, on this European-fighter subject the USAF CoS really did say such a thing. He remarked that although both aircraft are being designed for different missions, John Jumper said the Eurofighter and the Raptor are equally high-tech aircraft and he believes the two aircraft are running neck-and-neck right now. However he did say the Raptor should soon have upgrades and additional capabilities that allow it to perform as the best. I'm not sure why GCNR is getting so worked up about a Euro threat from America's allies ( who have helped in Afghanistan, supported the US during the Cold-war and helped in Desert Storm ) maybe he's upset with the French or something ( but France pulled out of Eurofighter long ago to give extra support their home-grown Mirage jets ). The most immedient threat to the United States right now is the chaos in Iraq and a bunch of Iranian ayatollah's screaming death to America and trying to get their hands on Nuke Weapons.

I'm not sure if Europe does have what it takes for Lunar projects or Mars mission, but the more industrial nations that are going for space-exploration the better. Personally, I like how the Russian's are re-inventing their space program and I like the idea of the European Mars Sample Return.

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#26 2006-03-24 21:46:25

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#27 2006-03-24 21:49:10

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#28 2006-03-26 11:04:06

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#29 2006-03-27 08:41:42

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#30 2006-03-27 13:36:53

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#31 2006-03-29 15:12:30

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#32 2006-03-29 15:32:19

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#33 2006-03-29 18:05:33

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#34 2006-04-02 13:57:21

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#35 2006-04-02 20:03:09

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#36 2006-04-07 22:04:51

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#37 2006-04-08 08:22:14

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#38 2006-04-08 13:42:59

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#39 2006-04-08 15:42:24

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#40 2006-04-08 17:10:09

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#41 2006-04-09 02:58:17

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#42 2006-04-09 05:22:06

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#43 2006-04-10 16:27:33

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#44 2006-04-10 18:21:15

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#45 2006-04-10 22:03:16

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#46 2006-04-11 14:05:07

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#47 2006-04-11 16:50:39

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#48 2006-04-11 17:05:37

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#49 2006-04-11 18:38:58

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

#50 2006-04-11 23:43:09

Re: Europe build a Heavy lifter ( 100 tonne Euro-HLLV ) ?

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