New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

Mundaka · 2005-10-08 16:58:34

GCNRevenger · 2005-10-08 21:30:47

Well Mundaka, I think its high time that I restated my thesis against the sucess of the AltSpace folks:

The problem is a simple one: rocket fuel

That without a breakthrough with exotic rocket fuels (N5+ salts, cyclic ozone, mono-atomic hydrogen solutions) or something, then we have reached the practical limits of chemical fuels. We cannot extract a meaningfully greater amount of thrust per pound of fuel, because the chemicals themselves only produce so much energy per mass.

Therefore, due to this situation, there can be no such thing as a small and cheap orbital rocket vehicle. It cannot be done, because it is against the laws of physics and chemistry with the fuels we have available to us today. Doesn't matter how clever you are, or how well you can "innovate," or any sneaky tricks up your sleeve... unless your rocket ship is really big, then it simply can't carry enough fuel to lift a practical mass into orbit. Period. The famously inflexible rocket equation dictates it.

Thus, this fact alone will ensure that the great majority of the AltSpace ventures will simply fail to ever develop an orbital vehicle. It just can't be done on a small scale, that the minimum bar for entry is too high for them to reach without an unrealisticly large (read: nine digit) investment that they could never repay.

There isn't a middle ground either, because there is no demand to go most but not all of the way to orbit. You can't "work your way up" to an orbital vehicle, because nobody will pay for a vehicle that is far overkill for suborbital but not powerful enough for orbital flight. There is then a huge economic and not just a huge performance gulf between suborbital and orbital flight.

Suborbital flight is fairly easy, you only need ~5% of the fuel required to reach orbit, no heat shield, and pretty lax aerodynamics. Its easy enough that Burt managed to make a maned vehicle called "Space Ship" One for only ~$20M. However, thanks to the rocket equation, you can't just put a rocket 20 times bigger on SSO and make it reach orbit: because you have to bring more fuel to push the extra fuel, the amount of fuel you need increases exponentially. You wouldn't need 20 times the fuel, you would need hundreds of times the fuel. If you put a single-stage SpaceDev orbital booster on the back of SSO with the nessesarry heat shield/OMS, the combined stack wouldn't fit on the back of a 747!

Its a simple physics problem, in order to get to orbit you need to go really fast, and to do that you need alot of fuel, which means a big and expensive rocket that none of the AltSpace folk (except maybe Elon Musk at SpaceX) have a chance of affording.

PS: Actually, modern solid rockets are safer, since they don't explode. The Apollo polydimethylsiloxane heat shield had to be inspected with magnifying glasses and X-Rays to make sure it was absolutely flawless... if there were a hole, well, that would be the end of that.

Mundaka · 2005-10-09 01:21:53

GCNRevenger · 2005-10-09 12:10:04

Modern solid rocket propellants must be under high pressure in order to burn effectively, but if there is a leak, the pressure drops and the combustion slows down to a non-exploding level. Also, modern fuels usually use rubber for a base, which won't shatter and cause an explosion like an old rock-hard fuel. It also adheres to the outer casing quite well, which a seperation failure unlikly. Although I have one gripe about the Shuttle SRBs, the whole notion of a segmented engine is a pretty bad one, and NASA ought to take this opportunity to abandon the concept.

I think that the amount of money needed to make a really signifigant private space program can't be expected from rich wannabe rocketeers. They didn't get rich by learning to blow it.

If you need some hundreds of millions or a billion dollars to make an orbital spaceflight business, then the chances are that you are never going to be able to repay that debt.

SpaceNut · 2005-10-10 08:01:12

NASA Issues New Centennial Challenges To Spur Suborbital Rocketry

NASA unveiled today two new Centennial Challenges–-both geared to stimulating new reusable suborbital rocketry, as well as help hone technology for exploration of the Moon.
Suborbital Payload Challenge: Reusable suborbital rocket launch with a certain size payload able to reach a certain altitude. The X prize was to 100 kilometers but NASA wants these new suborbital rockets to go much higher. If they can reach certain altitudes scientists at NASA would be interested in flying instruments and experiments on these vehicles.
Suborbital Lunar Landing Analog Challenge: NASA’s on the lookout for a reusable suborbital rocket that takes off and lands vertically and reaches a certain speed during flight. Those parameters would demonstrate the basic capabilities and rocket energies necessary to land and launch from the Moon. NASA hopes to broaden the number of engines, landing systems, and suppliers the space agency needs to return to the Moon.

It appears that Nasa is enticing them to go to the next step.

John Creighton · 2005-10-10 10:32:43

NASA Issues New Centennial Challenges To Spur Suborbital Rocketry
NASA unveiled today two new Centennial Challenges–-both geared to stimulating new reusable suborbital rocketry, as well as help hone technology for exploration of the Moon.
Suborbital Payload Challenge: Reusable suborbital rocket launch with a certain size payload able to reach a certain altitude. The X prize was to 100 kilometers but NASA wants these new suborbital rockets to go much higher. If they can reach certain altitudes scientists at NASA would be interested in flying instruments and experiments on these vehicles.
Suborbital Lunar Landing Analog Challenge: NASA’s on the lookout for a reusable suborbital rocket that takes off and lands vertically and reaches a certain speed during flight. Those parameters would demonstrate the basic capabilities and rocket energies necessary to land and launch from the Moon. NASA hopes to broaden the number of engines, landing systems, and suppliers the space agency needs to return to the Moon.
It appears that Nasa is enticing them to go to the next step.

Now that is more like it. Give the X prize people a challange that will have a much better payoff

SpaceNut · 2005-10-11 07:07:53

Here is an accounting of the days events and mishaps...

[url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9643167/]Rockets of the future take center stage
Space jockeys show their stuff; NASA announces two new contests[/url]

publiusr · 2005-10-13 11:14:53

Misc. Science news

http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/ … 7L0M1.HTML
This is a beautiful image of a Martian Dust devil.

Eew.
http://www.livescience.com/technology/0 … ubber.html
New Materials
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/materials-05zt.html
No Dino Birds
http://www.terradaily.com/news/life-05zzzzzzm.html

Electron Jump
http://www.spacewar.com/news/physics-05zl.html

Oh! This is rich..
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/tourism-05zp.html

Darpa challenge--on a flat road mostly:
http://www.spacewar.com/news/robot-05zzzb.htm

Mundaka · 2005-10-15 08:59:24

John Creighton · 2005-10-15 09:28:50

Sounds like a great day and I am glad you had a lot of fun. I would of extremely enjoyed being part of the event even if many of the concepts don’t find any markets in the future.

SpaceNut · 2005-11-07 09:43:00

As we noted how would we view such a race of rocket powered planes. Well with a little help froma GPS. [url=http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=100345]Rocket Racing League Taps GPSI for Spectator Hand-Held GPS Units
WiFi Broadcasts From Cockpits & Wings to Bring Fans Closer to Their Heroes [/url]

This will allow for the view to climb into the cockpit action of the pilots as they scream around the track.

GPS Industries will design and supply GPS receivers for the cockpits of the Mark-1 X Racer rocket planes which will be used to navigate the three-dimensional race courses. The company will also design and supply hand-held GPS receivers for use by fans attending races who will be able to follow the rocket planes using a sophisticated mapping interface. The devices will be Wi-Fi-enabled to broadcast streaming video during the races from multiple camera angles including cockpit, side-angle and wing-to-wing views.

Some of this type of technology is already in use with the vehicle cams in auto races.

SpaceNut · 2005-11-07 11:04:10

Other Nasa sponsored xcup style contests for prizes.

Could the X Prize Cup help NASA develop a Lunar RLV?

When would we need such a Reusuable Lunar lander?

If NASA keeps to its current plan, they will fly the first “Outpost Mission” in 2022 or 2023. These are by far the most important NASA missions of the first half of the 21st century. The goal is to begin work on what will become a permanent base on the Moon. In time this will evolve into the starting point for lunar colonization and development. To accomplish this NASA hopes to show that it can “live off the land” using In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technology, especially to provide the Moon base with a source of rocket fuel.

Of course where is the payoff, then again were should they start looking for design references since we only have the LM?

On the Moon things are different. The ascent stage of the Apollo-era Lunar Excursion Module (LEM) weighed about 4,500 kg and its fuel weighed about 2,300 kg, i.e. a mass fraction of about 50%. This is far more manageable than the 90% needed to escape from Earth’s gravity. The designers of a Lunar RLV will have more available mass for the vehicle’s structure and payload than those working on its terrestrial equivalent.

So we will be using the LSAM for exploration but when it comes to going forward we want the private industry to go it.

Moving from the LSAM to the Lunar RLV will take a positive decision by NASA and by the White House and Congress. The plan, as its stands now, is for the LSAM to be developed between the years 2010 and 2018. It would seem natural that Lunar RLV development begin immediately after the LSAM becomes operational.

SpaceNut · 2005-12-06 11:18:38

Rocket racing being developed

Peter Diamandis, founder of the Ansari X Prize, has a new venture he hopes will spur interest in space technology - a rocket plane racing league.
Diamandis, who created the $10 million Ansari X Prize awarded last year to the SpaceShipOne team for the first private manned spaceflights, said his new Rocket Racing League will join together entertainment with the pursuit of space technology.
"We are taking NASCAR into the space age," Diamandis said.

Race particulars:

Pilots of the rocket planes planned for the competitions will have the ability to shut down and restart engines during flight. It is expected that each plane will have about four minutes of rocket engine burn time and eight minutes of glide time.
"The challenge for the pilot will be to decide when to use the burn time," Diamandis said.
The planes will be able to be refueled in five to eight minutes.
"You're looking at doing a pit stop and going again," Diamandis said.

Who might paticipate in the first races:

The league has landed two notable pilots - former astronaut Rick Searfoss, a Tehachapi resident, and Erik Lindbergh, a commercial glider and test pilot and grandson of Charles Lindbergh. Searfoss is serving as the league's chief test pilot while Lindbergh plans to be one of the pilots in the inaugural race.
"Erik's intrepid spirit and superior piloting skills will thrill RRL fans and advance our mission to reignite the public's interest in flight and space," said Granger Whitelaw, the league's president and co-founder.

Course viewing as a spectator will take in some of these

That fuel will create a bright, 20-foot-long plume that will be visible to onlookers on the ground, Diamandis said.
The EZ-Rocket has a top speed of about 225 mph; the racers will hit speeds of 320 mph.
Race courses will probably be two miles long and one mile wide at an altitude of about 5,000 feet. Each pilot will have an individual three-dimensional "track" in order to avoid collisions, league organizers said.

SpaceNut · 2005-12-09 09:31:39

Here is another challenge for the x-prize crowd.

X Prize For Human Orbital Vehicle Studied

We have discussed how some feel that the SpaceShipOne was just a toy or a stunt and that real flight means to be able to get to orbit and to withstand re-entry temperatures.

A Human Orbital Vehicle (HOV) challenge would build upon NASA’s Centennial Challenges program. Presently, however, that effort is limited in the size of prizes offered by the space agency, now no greater than $250,000.
Congressional action:
The HOV Challenge, as identified in the X Prize Foundation study, would best be served if $100 million to $500 million could be offered by NASA.
An “ideal” HOV Challenge, according to the X Prize Foundation study made available today, would offer some $200 million to $300 million in total prize purses—divided into two tiers.
Tier One would offer $75 million in prizes for a non-reusable, two-to-three seat orbital vehicle that flies to low Earth Orbit and is recovered safely. The first place winner would snag $50 million. A second place winner would garner $25 million.
A Tier Two effort would tender $225 million in prizes for reusable, two-to-three seat orbital vehicle that is a high capacity craft that flies twice within 60 days. First place winner would receive $150 million, while second place is pegged at $75 million.

Well for that kind of money being offered, some one could actually buy and modify an atlas to win this prize or for that fact some other vehicle of choice.

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#51 2005-10-08 16:58:34

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#52 2005-10-08 21:30:47

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#53 2005-10-09 01:21:53

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#54 2005-10-09 12:10:04

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#55 2005-10-10 08:01:12

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#56 2005-10-10 10:32:43

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#57 2005-10-11 07:07:53

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#58 2005-10-13 11:14:53

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#59 2005-10-15 08:59:24

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#60 2005-10-15 09:28:50

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#61 2005-11-07 09:43:00

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#62 2005-11-07 11:04:10

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#63 2005-12-06 11:18:38

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

#64 2005-12-09 09:31:39

Re: New X Prize Sets Sights - Science, Technology and Social Solutions

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