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Hello everyone, I would just like to briefly outline what I think is the most likely scenario for government on Mars and hear everyones feedback.
1) Mars science colony or colonies. At first, a US science base with perhaps some astronauts from US allied countries. EU, Russia, and China, will either be part of this first colony, create their own colonies by themselves, or join up to create rival colonies (EU and US versus Russia and China).
2) Colonisation. This is where it becomes tricky. Two propositions in mainstream debate on Earth: national governments on Mars, or unified government.
2a) Unified government. This will be more like the UN Security Council, or some other small group of the wealthy countries that funded Mars exploration. Realistically, most countries will have no say on what happens on Mars. The most powerful groups will sort out voting rights among themselves on how to make major colonisation expansion decisions.
Eventually I think the unified government will split and nationalise once Mars becomes economically productive, because people will fight over the money. In fact, it may break up even faster if their is disagreement on how fast Mars can be put to economically productive use versus scientific exploration.
2b) National governments on Mars from the start. Unlikely because people will be jealous of whoever has a headstart (most likely US). National government colonies could lead to the "Great Mars Land Grab". The US and its allies would have the advantage of a headstart. Russia and China have advantage of more decisive government models to aggressively promote, and pay for (especially China) mass colonisation of Mars. India may join in with either US or China side, depending on where it feels it could a better deal.
Eventually the national government factions would probably also lead to further factionalisation and new "countries" being declared on Mars.
3) There is also the "wild card" scenario where Mars rebels against the Earth, which would be easier under the unified government model. If Mars successfully broke away, it would also inevitably break down and create its own countries, which may or may not receieve backing from "sister" countries on Earth.
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If Mars successfully broke away, it would also inevitably break down and create its own countries, which may or may not receieve backing from "sister" countries on Earth.
Would it? The US broke away from Britain, and it is still one country (although the Civil War temporarily divided it).
I think that the most likely scenario is separate city-states. Some will be governed by Earthly powers (although with some autonomy) and some will be fully independent. Someone will probably try to set up a Martian UN, and they may succeed, but it will not be a planetary government. Treaties and alliances will exist between the states (perhaps they will even all agree to some sort of non-agression pact) and in some cases there may be multiple states controlled by a single government. But the states will be mostly independent of each other.
Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun.
-The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
by Douglas Adams
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If Mars successfully broke away, it would also inevitably break down and create its own countries, which may or may not receieve backing from "sister" countries on Earth.
I think that the most likely scenario is separate city-states. Some will be governed by Earthly powers (although with some autonomy) and some will be fully independent. Someone will probably try to set up a Martian UN, and they may succeed, but it will not be a planetary government. Treaties and alliances will exist between the states (perhaps they will even all agree to some sort of non-agression pact) and in some cases there may be multiple states controlled by a single government. But the states will be mostly independent of each other.
Yeah, that's kinda what I had in mind. Since there will be so much empty space on Mars for the first few generations (depending on how fast they send people from Earth to colonize), it's likely that lots of splinter groups of settlers will like to go off and find their own little bit of Mars to colonize the way they want, with the culture they want, laws, politics, etc.
However, once the populations start to get bigger, and especially if colonies start competing directly over resources, then you're going to need big planetary governments or treaties, etc.
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People won't go off and create separate settlements for a long time because the technology won't be sufficiently reliable and services (hospitals) will be too hard to obtain. A Martian "McMurdo" (a central facility) is the likely starting point of settlement (just like Antarctica). The McMurdo will be located in a place where as many needed resources as possible are available. People will go off from it based on economics (i.e., the McMurdo needs copper ore, available 100 kilometers to the west, so a mining outpost is established there). Economic factors will limit the spread of population; they will not encourage it. Transportation especially will be a limiting factor; roads will have to be cleared, rocket shuttles will be expensive, aircraft difficult to develop. Why go live 1000 kilometers from "McMurdo" when you can live more conveniently in or or even 5 kilometers away from it? If you want to raise food for McMurdo, for example, you don't want to be a long way away. Even if you are running a mine 200 kilometers from McMurdo, it may be best to locate most of the workers in McMurdo, from which they run heavy equipment by remote control; the mine would have a small staff of repairmen, whose families would live at McMurdo. McMurdo will have better schools, the only decent stores, and probably a much more lively night life.
So I see a central facility for a very long time. If the Russians or Chinese want their own outpost, it will probably be a few hundred meters away, use the same spaceport facilities, and will be conveniently connected to it by pressure tunnel. In short, McMurdo will have suburbs. The various outposts/villages will have their own local government, but they will be tied together at the regional/planetary level with an authority in charge of the spaceport(s), the hospital(s), the setting of safety standards, and long-term planning.
-- RobS
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I agree with RobS
People will choose to live as close to the necessary facilities as possible, and the result will be a city. On Earth, people traditionally settled in the countryside to grow food, but food on Mars will probably be grown in extremely space efficient green houses, or synthetically in factories. There will not be any incentives for spreading out in the countryside. Living far away from other people will be dangerous, because there will not be anyone to help you if something goes wrong. Living within a few square kilometer will unfortunately make the colony vulnerable to meteor impacts and other natural disasters, but hedging against these risks will not be worth the cost.
[url=http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=3941]Martian Settlement 2035?[/url]
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Only governments have the resources to send people and the substantial supplies and equipment that a mars colony will need but why would any government do this?
You don't see anyone other than scientists living in Antarctica and it's a much more hospitable and survivable place than mars.
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Only governments have the resources to send people and the substantial supplies and equipment that a mars colony will need but why would any government do this?
You don't see anyone other than scientists living in Antarctica and it's a much more hospitable and survivable place than mars.
Non-scientists are not allowed to move to Antarctica. However; my own country Norway has an outpost close to the North Pole (Svalbard/Spitsbergen ) and there are so many people who want to live there that the government have had to put in place restrictions on new settlements. People want to move there for a number of different reasons, but what attracts most is simply the adventure of living in such an exotic place. The total number of privileged people living there are now 2600, and 1600 of them live in the capital Longyearbyen. It could easily grow to 100,000 if the restrictions were removed. I believe Mars would attract the same kind of people.
[url=http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=3941]Martian Settlement 2035?[/url]
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People won't go off and create separate settlements for a long time because the technology won't be sufficiently reliable and services (hospitals) will be too hard to obtain.
I partially with what you're saying, but I suppose my question is taking a longer view on the whole thing. I'm making the assumption that people have the choice to move around more freely.
Also, I think even if it was difficult to move around, but not impossible, there could at least be corporate-sponsored settlements in areas that were considerd potentially lucrative. Aren't there supposed to valuable minerals and/or something to do with the nuclear power process?
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At first I felt that the first colonies on Mars would be nearly wholy scientific, becasue it would be scientist that would be going up there, because the nations fronting the cost of the mission in the first place are doing so in a scientific interest. Therefore the political nature of the colony would be based loosely upon whatever countries the scientist came from. But scientist really do not care about real politics, they just politic to gat money to do what they want.
Therefore, the first colonies should not really have any one politcal stance, nor a reason to have one, they are just doing science.
However, with the advent of companies like 4Frontiers with a doable plan of how to colonize from a capitialistic/resourse based veiwpoint, my thoughts on this are begining to change.
We may or may not have a group a national scientists settling the red planet first. It may be intrepid explores prospecting for their cooperation. If that is the case then the colony will not be based on the polictal structure of the Terran nations the people came from but from the mindset of the capitalistic cooperation, which would not be good. Capitalism without Democracy would run wild and I forsee a war in this.
What I would hope would happen is that those going to Mars are doing so because they do not like what has been happening on Earth for millenia and want to start over, but this I fear is a pipe dream infused from reading the Mars Triology too many times. LOL.
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The Antarctica analogy: It has problems, one being that by treaty no one can settle there permanently; another being that supplies can be flown in almost any time, especially for emergencies; another that it is less than twenty-four hours from any spot on the planet and is direct-dial accessible. Mars is much more isolated and will have to be more self sufficient, when that becomes possible. Growing food will be an early effort.
Multiple settlements: Yes, eventually. If the cost of transportation on Mars drops enough because of solar-powered aircraft with immense wings or airships, goods and people could be slowly moved about inexpensively. The question then will be why build the other settlements. If transportation to Earth gets cheap enough, gold and platinum-group metals could be exported, and those will not likely be located near the Martian McMurdo. So gold mining and PGM mining facilities would develop.
Mars settled by utopians: That depends on the cost of the ticket, doesn't it. The first "tickets" will be about half a billion bucks per person ($3 billion to fly six people there and back). If the price drops to $100 million and an outpost of a few dozen develops, you'll go through the "national representative" syndrome: that is, India will pay to fly an Indian astronaut there, so Pakistan, to compete, will do the same, etc. The Mars coordinating body, if it is smart, will take advantage of this national competition (1 Luxembourger, 1 Kenyan, 1 Colombian, 1 Egyptian, 1 Samoan, etc.). If the price drops to maybe $10 million (a HUGE decrease, but no doubt it will happen eventually) you'll start getting Mormon missionaries, Jesuits, and representatives of a few other well-funded but not altogther welcome organizations, some private companies will start to set up operations, and a few very wealthy utopians will settle. If the price falls to $1 million more wealthy utopians will arrive, and more religious groups, and more companies. But real large-scale immigration will have to await a one-way ticket of a few hundred thousand dollars or less AND available jobs. That may take a century or so.
-- RobS
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What I would hope would happen is that those going to Mars are doing so because they do not like what has been happening on Earth for millenia and want to start over, but this I fear is a pipe dream infused from reading the Mars Triology too many times. LOL.
It's a nice thought, and one that many people might share with you, but unfortunately like you said it's not realistic.
There will never be a new egalitarian/communist/libertarian utopia on Mars. Governments will not spend billions of dollars to set up science stations and/or colonies just so they can turn around and say "Thanks for the money, but we're going to start our own utopia now and ignore you."
To be honest though, I don't think it's such a big deal. Mars is a different planet and will naturally develop new and unique cultures over time, regardless of whether it is based on Earth governments/politics or not.
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Evilcitizen, you are correct. and with the distance there will be little any one on Earth can do. Besides by time you see political, social, and cultural changes on Mars there will definitely be some changes on Earth, though at a much slower rate. Like any kind of evolution, social evolution is slow and is only changed rapidly and dramatically in the event of major events, Natural disasters (NEO strike), great discoveries (SETI), etc...
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Also, the people who are born on Martian Soil they probably do whatever they want with the home.
They must have free will to follow and develop any culture that want
ESA - European Space Agency
[img]http://www.out.gr/modules/FreeDrive/user_folders/constantinos1/esaflagship.jpg[/img]
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