China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US?

Grypd · 2005-05-18 04:27:15

http://www.sinodaily.com/2005/050517001 … tml]Taiwan "allowed" to have contact with the W. H. O

China has allowed Taiwan to have contact and dealings with the WHO. How very nice of them. It was China who instigated the Taiwanese being thrown off the board of the WHO in the first place. So much for UN impartiality.

Grypd · 2005-06-12 14:33:50

Seems that the world has just found out that the PLA chinas armed forces have a much increased capacity for warfare.

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-05zzq.html]a spacedaily article

There has been a build up of Chinese naval and technological abilities for the last 10 years. This has resulted in the capability to be able to use missiles to strike targets anywhere on the world and to have "managed to gain" technologies that allow for China to create capabilities that only the USA had.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2005-06-25 06:53:47

You and I both know that no matter how ambitious a space program China has, it won't be enough to transport population growth to Mars even if Mars could be made to sustain thousands of immigrants a year.
Quite true.
The question is whether they'll come to view it as way to expand their civilization in a cultural, dominance and territorial sense, rather than a mundane "population management" issue.
Americans don't for the most part think this way. The Chinese don't seem to as yet either, but they're closer.
What is very likely to occur is that they will have the will, and we will have the means. This may be a buried undercurrent in China's recent expression of a desire to cooperate in space endaevors.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-04 … -04zx.html
Time will tell.

Communist mindset was bad and people suffered like a dictatorship under Mao, today Chinese don't want to rule the World they just want to live, be safe and have enough to get on

but they want improved technology and training

USA already gave F14 Tomcats to Iran, the US sold missile to Venezuela but now Chavez doesn't like Bush.
China wanted to get some EU technology and European military equipment
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/uk … =673262005
http://www.janes.com/defence/news/jdw/j … _1_n.shtml
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/20 … 95747.html
http://www.mbda.net/site/FO/scripts/sit … ..._id=106
http://www.europapress.es/europa2003/no … ...5104532
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ … ...w04.htm
The USA will perhaps soon enough start building Nuke reactors in China for the Chinese electricity demands. French and Germans were thinking about going to sell some high-tech designs to China, but the EU issue of human rights came up

According to various source, the 094 SSBN entered the sea trial last July, however it's not clear whether the 6.16.2005 launched JL2 SLCM is from this platform or not, although many sources implied that. Let’s assure the 094 sea trial lasted for almost 1 year, so it’s possible for PLA to test fire a new ICBM at this stage from this submarine.

Japanese tourists were making themselves very obnoxious at a Taipei-area restaurant. Local Taiwanese say they heard the Japanese calling them a racial term used during WW2.

Japan says its people were attacked by impolite Taiwanese.
Who has the right story ?

A chance encounter over the Lake District between a Eurofighter trainer and two F-15 aircraft turned into a mock dogfight, with the British plane coming off best - much to the surprise of some in the RAF. The episode was hushed up for fear of causing US blushes.
The Eurofighter Typhoon is a highly agile twin-engine multi-role canard-delta fighter aircraft, designed and built by a consortium of European nations
design resembles other major modern combat aircraft such as France's Dassault Rafale and Sweden's Saab Gripen. However, its combination of agility, stealth features and advanced avionics suggest it is amongst the most capable fighter currently in service with any airforce.

The European Union has shelved its controversial move to lift its arms embargo on China, a senior US official said here today after talks with Britain, France and Germany.
The State Department official, who asked not to be named, said the weapons ban was discussed at a dinner hosted yesterday by British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw for his US, French and German counterparts.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx … 08041.html

Knox-class frigate to protect fishermen in disputed waters
The de facto Japanese ambassador to Taipei paid a visit to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to express Japan's stance on Taiwan's plan to send a naval ship to patrol disputed waters where the 200-mile exclusive economic zones of Taiwan and Japan overlap.
Some fishermen siad they weren't protetected enough by Taiwan and made a threat to fly the traditional Communists China flag because they suspect Japanese fear Mainland China more tahn Taiwan.
Taiwanese official said that Japan had agreed to discuss its fishing dispute with the island, one day after Taipei sent two warships to protect fishermen who have repeatedly been chased by Japanese patrol boats from disputed waters.
Taiwan sends warship to disputed islands claimed by Japan

A "spaceflight kingdom," covering about 1,200 mu (80 hectares), will begin construction in southwest Shanghai.
Another Shenzhou coming ?
http://centurychina.com/plaboard/upload … 022310.jpg
http://img280.echo.cx/img280/1718/20056 … 5453ld.jpg
SZ-6 in training
China is likely to built a new satellite launching center, the fourth of its kind in the country, on its southernmost island province of Hainan.
Deputies from the island province, in the ongoing annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC) confirmed the report.

Ministry Press Conference on June 2005 - Foreign Ministry Spokesman Liu Jianchao

As to the EU's lifting of arms embargo on China, EU has made its political commitments. It is also clear about China's position on this issue. The Chinese side's requirement on the lifting of arms embargo aims to remove EU's political discrimination against China and the political obstacle standing in the way of the normal development of China-EU relations, rather than to import weapons from EU. China and EU are strategic cooperative partners. We hope to develop the relations with EU on the basis of equality and mutual respect. Therefore, we once again urge EU to truly carry out its political commitments and lift the arms embargo on China as soon as possible.

Dook · 2005-06-25 15:12:16

The US sold (we did not give) F-14's to Iran in an effort to strengthen the moderately pro-western leadership there. We certainly did not intend for a fanatical religious change to sweep the country and threaten their neighbors but even so they have not been hostile towards their neighbors (except Israel and supporting religious extremism).

Oh, and those F-14's, during the Iran/Iraq war the Iranian F-14's were used as airborne radar directors. They would detect incoming aircraft and direct Iranian interceptors to engage in a dogfight. The overwhelming majority of those dogfights turned into swirling banks and turns where neither the Iraqi or Iranian pilots ever saw each other.

I've been to about eleven different countries and I've been to Japan eight times. Without a doubt the Japanese are the most polite people IN THE ENTIRE WORLD! Even so, every country has it's share of bad apples.

Hmm, a modern day Eurofighter beats out a 1970's era US fighter jet? It only took them 35 years. Lets put that Eurofighter up against an F-22 and see what happens.

Loughman · 2005-06-25 18:21:57

The F-22 is nice, but it's designed to do too many things. When you want something to be a bomber, a dog-fighter, a ground support fighter, get there in a hurry and be stealthy doing it, you are going to have to give somethings up.

Fortunately, these are the same things wrong with the Eurofighter.

China is a growing force. They have a lot of momentum, but they are going to take time to mature. They are going to need to launch several more taikonauts before they are prepared for the more serious mission of landing men on other worlds.

Good luck to them though. Now let us get moving.

Dook · 2005-06-25 18:36:04

Nice? Hmm, lets see. It can't be detected by airborne radar so no other fighter is going to know it's there outside of visual range. With a few F-22's flying lead and others behind scanning with radar they should easily obtain air superiority. The F-22 can lead and support attack missions as a fighter or just as easily perform that mission itself without the need of another escort fighter. It can probably out turn anything other than the SU-37's cobra maneuver (which doesn't help you outside of heat seeking missile range and it's not accurate at nose to nose shots) and the Harrier which is not likely to be in enemy hands. And it can fly twice the range of an F-15 at supersonic speeds so it's combat radius is greater. Speed equals survivability. The F-22 will very likely not perform any ground support missions other than dropping GPS guided bombs from high altitude on stationary targets.

Yeah, that's nice I guess.

China is a growing force? Their economy is about equal to Italy's.

Loughman · 2005-06-25 19:35:47

Wow I didn't realize Italy's economy had grown so much. Read your newspaper.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2005-06-26 14:21:44

The F-22 is nice, but it's designed to do too many things. When you want something to be a bomber, a dog-fighter, a ground support fighter, get there in a hurry and be stealthy doing it, you are going to have to give somethings up.
Fortunately, these are the same things wrong with the Eurofighter.
China is a growing force. They have a lot of momentum, but they are going to take time to mature. They are going to need to launch several more taikonauts before they are prepared for the more serious mission of landing men on other worlds.
Good luck to them though. Now let us get moving.

Chinese versus the USA
The United States would be hurt very bad, Americans will get killed and Chinese would see much destruction and Beijing would be bombed
too many would die in this kind of stupid war

China is on great friendly terms with USA, they have many diplomatic relations, do much trade
so they will never fight

India has forged strategic alliances, several of which may render the United States none-too-pleased. Cuba has bad realtions with USA, Uruguay’s Tabare Vazquez are ultra-leftist, following U.S. withdrawal from the Panama Canal Zone Hutchison Whampoa the Hong Kong company for Beijing’s Communist Party leased and now controls the ports on both ends of the Panama Canal. Lucio Gutierrez became president shortly after da Silva in Brazil and praises Chavez and Castro. He was a militant member of the Marxist left Peronist Party. Singaporian decision on Eurofighter will be very interesting and there is no doubt the aircraft impressed. Though the decision is probably not imminent yet the French obviously think it is judging by the vast amounts of advertising and marketing for they have been pouring in of late. SKorea might buy some military tech from France or England, India has already bought British Harrier, European missiles, Russian Migs and French fighter aircraft. The European Union, if counted as a single unit, would have the largest economy and military in the world. Thanks to its highly developed economies Europe is a leading place for investment, science, and technology. A superpower is a state with the ability to influence events or project power on a global scale. In modern terms, this may imply an entity with a huge economy, a large population, and strong armed forces, including air and space power and a considerable arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. EU has big GNP but is divided French and Germans are in the Euro but swedish and England have not joined Euro zone currency.
calculate GDP
1 EU $10,800,200,000,000
2 U S $ 10,300,100,000,000
3 China $ 5,800,500,000,000
4 Japan $ 3,350,400,000,000
CIA lists China even higher [6 trillion]
Measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, China in 2004 stood as the second-largest economy in the world after the US
Europe lacks not only an operative center, but strategic thinking, for it to be capable of acting on the world political stage. Indian Air Force have shown much superiority over US Air Force - USAF underestimated Indians as Iraqis or Iranians. While acknowledging the performance of their Indian colleagues, who they will meet again in another air combat exercise in Alaska next month and India has shown it can beat the USA in a fight in the air. Indian Oil Corp., a state-run company, reached a January 2005 agreement with the Iranian firm Petropars to develop a gas block in the gigantic South Pars gas field, home to the world's largest reserves. The USA have a great Airforce, F16s, F14 Tomact and the F-15 Eagle at Mach 2.5 are deadly aircraft. The military in Israel used F15 and French Mirage aircraft to fight in their wars, using these France fighters and American aircraft Isreal has a good airforce. India is cooperating with President Mohammed Khatami's government to secure Persian Gulf sea lanes and formulate a common Central Asian strategy. India is also helping Iran to develop its Chahbahar port, as well as several infrastructure projects.

http://www.defencetalk.com/pictures/thu … ...&page=5

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's recent visit to New Delhi – the first such trip by a Venezuelan leader – is seen as crucial for both countries. USA have already given caracas many missiles, F16 and guns but today Venezuela is very Anti-Bush, steady economic growth over the past decade has caused a sharp spike in India's energy requirements. F15 and F14 Tomcat are older design but so are many other planes, who builds a plane over-night ? A great fighter bomber takes time to build. F22 design has been around a long time, and Stealth bomber ideas go back to the late 70s and early 80s. The YF22 is a great plane but the most expensive figter plane ever built, not even the USA can afford it. India have many Migs and Harrier jump jets, India will emerge as the fourth-largest energy consumer by 2010. greater concern, however, are fledgling partnerships with Iran, Sudan, Venezuela, and Myanmar. In pursuing energy deals, the Indian government has set aside issues of human rights abuses by some, and violation of non-proliferation commitment by others. EU will not sell arms to China now because of the politics of human rights problems with the Chinese. The EU already has a tremendous cultural, political and economical attraction for surrounding states. It seems likely that other important states like Turkey and Ukraine will join the EU before 2025. The Indian Air Force can beat the USA, US Air Force underestimated the India Air force Pilots and their numerical skill. They thought these are another set of Iraqi or Iranian Pilots. The numerical analysis and problem solving capability of IAF Pilots are well known and are probably the best in the world. Indians and Pakistan have much combate experience and fought many battles, the British sent Harriers to fly non-stop from England to fight in the war in the Falklands against Argentina. The USA have not really faced a serious airbourne opponent in years, lacking experience this is why India beat them. The US has great experience in Land battles and Urban war of Afghanistan, but the cost of Iraq is doing damage to the US Economy.

India and USA will never fight, they have great connections and are very friendly

GCNRevenger · 2005-06-26 14:40:27

The F-22 is nice, but it's designed to do too many things. When you want something to be a bomber, a dog-fighter, a ground support fighter, get there in a hurry and be stealthy doing it, you are going to have to give somethings up.
Fortunately, these are the same things wrong with the Eurofighter.
China is a growing force. They have a lot of momentum, but they are going to take time to mature. They are going to need to launch several more taikonauts before they are prepared for the more serious mission of landing men on other worlds.
Good luck to them though. Now let us get moving.

Ummmm. No it isn't. The F-22 was concieved and designed as a pure fighter, and in that role is not in the slightest diluted by the ability to carry bombs. Inf act, the only difference between an F-22 as fighter versus as bomber is the weapon/radar control software and different weapons bay railings.

The cheif thing that is a tradeoff is that the F-22 can't hold many bombs. Chemical explosives are still kind of bulky, and the F-22's weapons bay is designed specifically for the rather compact AMRAAM missile (and its improved derivitives coming down the line), and only carry about one ton of ordinance. It does make the most of it however, either a pair of half-ton JDAM bombs or eight of the new SDB bombs. That however, is plenty to kick down the door or provide limited air support... and fits neatly inside its bays, with no effect to the stealth characteristics.

In the air, the F-22 will be the best, last manned fighter baring easy stealth/anti-stealth breakthrough. By the time any practical enemy fighter would be able to target it, it would be far too late. This capability places it beyond all the other aircraft in the world, no matter how agile. The F-22 was designed to destroy the Soviet air force, and even the modernized Chinese copy of it would be no match... Especially with the AMRAAM block 6/7 missiles. Against the PLAF, it would be a massacre, with or without the nicer Russian R-77M missiles.

BTW: The Indian air force beat ours because neither side had AWACS capability for the excercise, which we are used to having.

Dook · 2005-06-26 15:05:19

The Indian Air Force is NOT a match for the US Air Force. I'm sure you are referring to the recent exercise where the Indian aircraft beat the American F-15's. The following is an excerp from Aviation Week and Space Technology Magazine.
The 6 F-15C's were not equiped with the newest ESRA radar system that has 100 mile range

The IAF had a numerical advantage of 18 to 6

The F-15's had a 20 mile restriction placed on thier AIM-120's and they had to keep illuminating the target when fired rather than use them in a fire and forget mode.

The IAF had the use of a simulated AWACS plane (An-32 Cline)

Numerical skill? There is no such thing.

And I have a feeling that this exercise was set up this way so the F-15's would come out the losers to put pressure on congress to finance a larger purchase of F-22's.

Grypd · 2005-06-26 15:16:42

Chinese versus the USA
The United States would be hurt very bad, Americans will get killed and Chinese would see much destruction and Beijing would be bombed
too many would die in this kind of stupid war

It is a stupid war but Beijing is becoming more powerful and will if it continues become a superpower and will eclipse the USA. China is on the up and has a lot of the advantages, and is using them. Of course these "adavantages will disapear in time"

China is on great friendly terms with USA, they have many diplomatic relations, do much trade
so they will never fight

But China is NOT friendly with Taiwan a comitted USA ally and nor is it with Japan a country that is determined not to be eclipsed either with the Chinese and to become more of a leader in the far east. Either these or the troubles over the resource rich Spratly islands can cause military actions. Just look at the problems with fishing between Japan and Taiwan this week.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's recent visit to New Delhi - the first such trip by a Venezuelan leader - is seen as crucial for both countries. USA have already given caracas many missiles, F16 and guns but today Venezuela is very Anti-Bush

Hugo Chavez is not just Anti-Bush he is Anti-USA and he is supported by his countrymen who have become more and more disillusioned with the USA each day. Like Zimbabwe, Venezuela though has a market for its resources and has found a new "friend" this being China. Do I respect China for providing money and resources so that the likes of Mugabes totalitarian state may continue to the detriment of his own population. Take it from me that the USA and GB do not.

F15 and F14 Tomcat are older design but so are many other planes, who builds a plane over-night ?

Pity that as we need a new generation of fighter and various purpose planes.

The YF22 is a great plane but the most expensive fighter plane ever built, not even the USA can afford it.

True and unfortunately for Dook it can be detected by Radar the French can. They do it by using doplar radar. They can also detect the Stealth fighter and Bomber using the difference in returned signals. Expensive system but available to all who can afford it and China has invested.

the British sent Harriers to fly non-stop from England to fight in the war in the Falklands against Argentina

Please it was not Harriers we sent but the much longer ranged V force Vulcans and though they did attack port Stanley they only could manage this as a result of our base in the Assension Islands providing in flight refueling. This was a new technique at the time and we had much to learn. Still the proliferation of British bases around the world and the UK's willingness to "share" with the USA gives the USA a much more global reach. Examples are Diego Garcia for the gulf, Cyprus for the middle east, Gibraltar for North Africa and Ascension for the African states.

India and the USA will never fight, they have great connections and are very friendly

Never believe in absolutes that will only destroy that which you call faith. At the moment there is nothing for the USA and India to really wish to fight over but in the future who really knows. Not me and it is always best to be prepared for all possibilities

GCNRevenger · 2005-06-26 15:44:56

Blah blah... The US can very well afford the F-22 in sufficent numbers, because it is so effective that you don't need that many of them. One F-22 with six missiles fired independantly close enough that they cannot be avoided except by the best of pilots and planes... and then only with a generous helping of luck and extremely good reflexes.

"...it can be detected by Radar the French can. They do it by using doplar radar. They can also detect the Stealth fighter and Bomber using the difference in returned signals. Expensive system but available to all who can afford it and China has invested."

Ummm. No it can't. Doppler radar relies on direct returns just like any radar, and since the F-22 doesn't return much, regular radar would never work. The Russians have probobly played around with a concept nicknamed "Celldar" with one transmitter and multiple recievers spread around an area, trying to pick up "glints" off of the airplane to roughly detect them, which is possible, however... Fighter jets nor missiles can use Celldar, since they have but one reciever in the same place as the transmitter, so the F-22 would still be unstoppable. And thats if you do actually get lucky and detect those stray, fleeting reflections... before the transmitter gets blown to bits. Doesn't work at sea either, unless you spread your warships out, which makes them easy pickings.

China would have to be absolutely insane to get into a shooting war with America, their economy is so heavily dependant on ours that stopping all trade would be even more catastrophic to China then America... their nation would cease to exsist as a world power overnight.

Edit: Either the Chinese regieme would be doing something that suicidal for an excuse to hault any domestic progression to democracy, or they want to hurt America and don't care about the domestic consequences... or else they would be betting that we won't go to war over Taiwan.

Edit edit: On the whole, betting on American weakness and hesitence to get in a fight has been a historically losing proposition.

Dook · 2005-06-26 15:46:12

You can't detect the F-22 or the B-2 by airborne radar because there is no returned signal to differentiate. Ground based? Yeah, you may be able to. But here's the kicker, you turn it on and we turn it off with a radar guided missile down the beam.

Also there was an airshow (England I believe) where the B-2 flew in and the air traffic controllers picked up the B-2 on their screens. They thought it sure must not be very stealthy if they can pick it up that easily. The B-2 was transmitting cages-in other words it was sending out a signal so they could direct it in amongst all the other traffic.

Xaliqen · 2005-06-29 08:27:19

I agreed with you up until about this point:

so the F-22 would still be unstoppable

I realize you're speaking in terms of relative circumstances, but no weapon is unstoppable. In fact, I would say the more complex a weapon becomes, the greater the chances become of finding a way to counter it effectively. This may not occur for some time, but it's still a reality.

China would have to be absolutely insane to get into a shooting war with America, their economy is so heavily dependant on ours that stopping all trade would be even more catastrophic to China then America... their nation would cease to exsist as a world power overnight.

I think it's safe to say that if the United States and China were to enter into a serious state of active conflict with one another, then neither country would be much to speak of by the end of it. The foolishness of such an endeavor would be tantamount to national suicide for any nation involved in such a conflict.

GCNRevenger · 2005-06-29 09:33:45

Sure, if you put a single F-22 up against a dozen Su-30 Mark II/III planes, the F-22 would probobly lose. Or if you put up a small flight of them against an extremely concentrated air defense system, they would probobly get caught and have serious trouble escaping... But on the basis of the forces and weapons that the F-22 could concieveably be faced with for the forseeable future, its advantage is overwhelming and obvious. As long as there is no alternative to radar for medium/long range targeting, stealth technology besides airframe deflection/absortion, or revolutionary anti-missile countermeasures, then the F-22 will remain the undisputed king of fighters for a long, long time.

The concept that "more complex = more weaknesses" does not hold true, that is a poor rule of thumb. In any event, the real edge of the F-22 is quite simple, that the plane does not return radar signals parallel to an incidient beam much. Radar is the only way to detect and attack the F-22 before it can shoot at you, and so without that, there really isn't anything you can do to stop it with a reasonable but lower tech force.

Dook · 2005-06-29 16:36:59

I think it's safe to say that if the United States and China were to enter into a serious state of active conflict with one another, then neither country would be much to speak of by the end of it. The foolishness of such an endeavor would be tantamount to national suicide for any nation involved in such a conflict.

I certainly hope it never happens but as I see it the ball is in China's hands. If they ever decide to invade Taiwan the US will have to assist them militarily.

As far as a nuclear conflict goes I would agree with your post, unless there are some things (fully operable anti-missile defense system?) that I don't know about.

As far as a conventional conflict goes, I think we can certainly hold our own. People like to quote that China has a million man army. That's great but how are they going to get them across the water to Taiwan or the US for that matter?

No country can project power anywhere near the capability of the U.S. Six aircraft carrier battle groups has a way of ruining any invasion plus nightly B-1 and B-2 attacks from Guam and Japan. Submarines would blockade China and cut off all seaborne supplies. Any ship heading to Taiwan would be an easy target for our subs and become a playpen for the fish. The electricity would go out and stay out, backup generators would suffice for a while. All bridges would be dropped, railways, and major roads destroyed. China would become a stone age country in two weeks.

GCNRevenger · 2005-06-29 17:00:47

As far as a conventional conflict, you wouldn't even have to go all-out Bosnia style on them... blockade the entire country's coast completly, destroy the PLN and PLAF, and destroy their conventional ballistic and shore-launch cruise missile sites. Bottle them up, their economy would evaporate, and China would collapse from within or sue for peace.

The advancement of Chinese submarines and missiles is something of a concern however, and a naval war would not be without serious US losses... unless we hurry up and build next generation DDX/LCS warships and more superquiet Virginia subs before then. Reactivating the Standard-III kinetic-kill SAM for tactical ballistic missile interception would be nice too.

reddragon · 2005-06-29 18:25:05

The bad thing about these easy-win scenarios is that if they worked China might launch nukes in desperation.

Besides would we really do that well considering how we're doing in Iraq right now. Of course, it would be a different kind of war -- more the black and white army vs. army type I think.

Commodore · 2005-06-29 18:42:12

The advancement of Chinese submarines and missiles is something of a concern however, and a naval war would not be without serious US losses... unless we hurry up and build next generation DDX/LCS warships and more superquiet Virginia subs before then. Reactivating the Standard-III kinetic-kill SAM for tactical ballistic missile interception would be nice too.

The Chinese can't build SNBMs in the volume needed to land a knock out blow. We can assign two SSNs for every one they have.

Austin Stanley · 2005-06-29 23:35:26

I really don't have much to add to the discussion here. No doubt a conventional war bettwen the US and China would be much as you say. The US has such an overwelming advantage in both sea an air-power (especialy sea) that it is hard to imagine China gaining any ground in an invasion of Taiwan or any other overseas location that we might care about. Thats not to say that such a victory would be bloodless, war never is, but the US would assuredly be the victor.

The problem is that China is not some two-bit third world nation like Iraq or Bosnia that we can bully around, because in the end they have little to no means of striking back at us. This is not the case with China, who is a nuclear power. Just as was the case with the US and Russia during the cold war, it seems likely that any conventional war would soon escelate lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

Now the US's nuclear arsenal outweighs China's by at least an order of magnitude, and so if we should choose to retaliate China would certianly be the worse for it. But that would be small consolations for those living in major US cities such as New York, LA, Washington... exct. which would no doubt be targeted and destroyed by nuclear assault.

So lets all just hope that cooler heads prevail in both the US and China and such a thing never comes to pass.

SpaceNut · 2005-06-30 05:20:58

Gee... what a battle of military might these last few pages have become, is this how we want space to be?

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2005-07-08 07:53:30

The Indian Air Force is NOT a match for the US Air Force. I'm sure you are referring to the recent exercise where the Indian aircraft beat the American F-15's.

The whole China versus Taiwan things is over-stated, if Taiwan had want to hit Chinese on the mainland they would have done it during the days of their Totalitarian regime and days of Martial law on the Taiwan island. If mainland China wanted to strike Taiwan they would have done it during the days of crazy Mao and his harsh dictator ways. Conflict could arise from almost anywhere, radicals in Sudan, South-Amercia, Burma, Indonesia, conflict between South Koreans and Japanese, the Middle East, Kosovo, trouble between Russian and Japan in the island dispute. Japan liked what Bush did in Iraq but is causing trouble with its right-wing leaders making stupid remarks, the main part visiting a war criminals Shrine and the Tokyo governor calling foreigners N*ggers and describing the Koreans and Chinese as animals. As we all know, the Iraqi misadventure has cost America at least $400 billion dollars so far, and possibly more in other funds spent on equipment, theft and other slippages. The dollar is losing out as more and more central banks are diversifying their currencies, especially into the Euro and out of the dollar. Germany has taken positions directly opposed to those of the United States concerning the war in Iraq
Will the EU soon be selling a lot of weapons to China ? President Hugo Chavez has recently accused President Bush of plotting to assassinate him, made suggestive comments about Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, visited Fidel Castro in Cuba, bashed the United States on the al-Jazeera television network and traveled to Libya to receive an award from Moammar Gaddafi. Some say China soon to be a superpower, well maybe it will be the power and maybe not so much. Chinese will rise up powerful for some decade and fall away into the quiet for decades as always, and rise again and decline into a sleep and awaken again....this is the story of the China land for the past thousand years and it will contine. China on Wednesday launched another experimental science satellite into a preset orbit, atop a Long March 2D carrier rocket from a launching center in northwest China's Gansu Province. Will China rock the world ? I think not for Chinese don't have this ambition, to look for ambition in the past there is the land of Arabia, the Russian Soviets, the Amercians and Europe. When Europeans made trouble, it caused shock waves around the globe and WW1 came, aftre World War 2 it was the Soviet Russia against USA and her European friend, the Capitalist Vs Communist was felt everywhere in Angola in Africa and in East Vs West Germany and in Cuba.
When the Bin Laden hijackers attacked the USA it made people think, some people wondered what would have happened if the US was suddenly crippled by a huge event. Would the world continue on without America, if the USA suddenly saw a huge explosion on one of its reactors, or if the US got hurt by a massive volcanic eruption or terrorist strike ? Could the world continue moving on without the United States ? Perhaps the world would just continue moving on, remember a world of science, naval exploration, cannon warfare, philosophy and craft existed long before the United States was ever established.

Could any other power fill the role of the USA, will China, the EU, India or Russia ?Let us picture a scene in the future, the year is 2010and some hostile country hits multiple targets in Europe. Chile sends its submarines up to attack EU and
hit many targets in Europe, or Iran shoots missiles at Sweden, Spain Barcelona, Turkey, Estonia, Frankfurt Germany.
Would Europe unite to defend itself ? The combined power would be larger than the former Soviet Union Voenno-Vozdushnye Sily
airforce, so let us combine the force of Finland, Belgium, Latvia, France, Greece.... EU´s combined amount of soldiers, special forces and border patrol troops would be 8 million,

Euro Union's combined amount of fighter planes, aircraft bombers and helicopters would be over 10,100.
Europe may have some of the most tanks and powerful aircraft and a strong Euro, the Europeans are deeply divided French and English don't see eye to eye politically and the Spanish and Italians have many differences on finance and culture issues. So Europe has the potential for military might but it may only become the Economic superpower because Europeans are very divided. It's true that the Chinese are putting money into their military with H-6X Bombers , Jiangwei 1 ship, 039 Submarine, with Cruise Missile pylon, Luhu ship, J-10A Airbase, Jianghu shore bombardment ship, JH-7A Fighter. In the banking and Economic market China is also moving on. China's debut as an auto exporter, small as it may be for now, foretells a broader challenge to a half-century of American economic and political ascendance. The nation's manufacturing companies are building wealth at a remarkable rate, using some of that money to buy assets abroad. And China has been scouring the world to acquire energy resources, with the bid to buy an American oil company only the latest overture.

Chinese are not very rich, and sometimes it can be said that for all the USA's military might the US economy has done so great. Compare it to the likes of Swiss, the economy of Norway, Canada and such who don't have a strong military. Some wonder about the USA's position in Asia, the India airforce has bought up Russian migs, French aircraft, British Harrier and Russian Su-fighters while its supposed ally Japan seems to act atrange at times. The Beef ban , Jenkins, Japans policy on Whales, Bobby Fisher.. what do all these have in common? That Japan has its own plans and that it can say NO to the US. So what did that Pentagon Report say it more or less talked about China's Space Warfare Tactics, or how the Chinese tactics are Aimed at U.S. Supremacy. Heap of Surface to Air missiles, and going from creating anti-satellite weaponry, the Chinese are doing submarine launches and are building new classes of heavy-lift and small boosters, as well as a heap of other things.

The China military man Shen highlights radar sites and radio stations, communications facilities, and command ships as priority targets vulnerable to smart weapons, electronic attacks. I doubt the Chinese will ever attack the West because they have too much to loose, however do they plan to take over the US superpower status and influence in Asia ? This could be true, Chinese could play hard ball with North Korea, they could take a more tuff stance but it could mean that Beijing gets hit and thousands or millions of people could be killed or injured. When it comes to a war, Chinese have learned from the days of the lunatic Mao and his dictator way that Chinese can afford to lose some people and still win but what kind of damage would be done to the Chinese economy ? China successfully Orbits experimental Science Satellite - Officials at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center said the Shijian-7 (SJ-7) satellite was rocketed at 6:40 a.m. and started orbiting normally 12 minutes later.

The SJ-7 Satellite was designed to monitor space environment and conduct other spacial scientific and technological experiments with a three-year life span, according to the Center. The USA may lose its superpower staus, it faces some big trouble in the middle East and can it afford another fight such as Iran, North Korea or Syria ? Insurgent attacks haven't slacked off, one bit, and the security situation is still tenuous, at best. In Iraq the government is in a mess while American-trained iraqi cops open fire on a poor group of Government Employees, who just wanted their paychecks. The CIA report now says Iraq has become a worse breeding groud for Terrorists than Afghanistan ever was, meanwhile the dollar bills for Afghan security keep rising up the debt clock. The EU Euro Zone has already become an EconomicSuperpower and there are those in Europe who see things much differently to Italian support, Bush or Tony Blair. Germany might be giving them missiles with EU consent, and French may make a move also. This has been suspected after face to face talks between the French Defence minister and the top Chinese military man. Things are already heating up, the USA has already threated they might try and attack the European Galileo spacecraft if a hostile power such as China is using it. The Chinese have already been buying up anti-radar missiles from Israel and carpet bombing aircraft from the Russians, China is keen to get its hand on French developed electronics for military and stealth features and more German weapons. It is clear that France is moving closer to selling its weapons to the largest Empire on Earth, now imagine a nation that is larger than the USA, with a population 5 times the United States size, with a strong rule and a powerful military communist structure, now emerging with free and open trade except it also is keen on making its military the most Modern on Earth. If the US is having so much trouble in, people getting their heads cut off, Terror groups growing in Iraq and the Middle East becoming a no go area for Americans then what makes you think they'd go a few rounds with a big player like China, time will tell ? Chinese have an ambition to become the next superpower, what happens when the USA falls from this role ? The Long March carrier rocket was sent off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in western China. This is the 85th rocket in the Long March series it was sent into luanch on Wednesday. The SJ-7 Satellite was designed to monitor space environment and conduct other spacial scientific and technological experiments with a three-year life span, according to the Center. The launch is the 85th mission taken by the Long March carrier rockets since 1970. President Hugo Chavez is strengthening military ties with Iranians and India, the Chinese people, while closing the door on decades of military cooperation with the United States. Chavez, however, is keen to develop closer energy ties with the United States, partly to help fund tens of billions of dollars in energy investments needed to sustain the Venezuela economy and keep himself in power. But his persistent anti-American , anti-Bush rhetoric and actions are alienating Washington and investors as well as setting the stage for potential future confrontations over regional trade and security issue. Some say that Bush and his policies are bankrupting America. America has been "warned" by the IMF and we are on the "watch list," for currency weakness. Actually, at this time, America is about bankrupt and that is why Bush wants to raid the Social Security Fund and give all of his friends in the brokerage business whatever money is left before the country goes further into a tailspin economically. At this time, foreign banks are diversifying their currencies, people investing in America, both Americans and foreign investors, are taking their money into other markets and funds rather than putting them into weak American markets and the weak American economy. Since threatening to cut off oil shipments to the United States, which buys 1.5 million barrels a day from Venezuela, Chavez has been traveling the globe looking for new markets and allies to unite against "the imperialist power." He recently signed energy deals with France, India and China, which is searching for new sources of oil to power its industrial expansion. Chavez also has made a series of arms purchases, including one for military helicopters from Russia. Chavez hosted President Mohammad Khatami of Iran, a nation that has a secretive nuclear program and has been labeled by Bush as part of an "axis of evil." plus there is now the EU factor...which have a huge powerful central banks and trade blocks and the Euro Zone. Chinese will have strenght to be comparable to that of the USA, but China won't upset the USA it also knows that if it tries to grow into a Superpower its Empire could easily fall apart quicker than the Mongol Huns and genghis khan made a mess of their Empire and saw everything die away so fast.

Grypd · 2005-07-08 09:20:48

The whole China versus Taiwan things is over-stated, if Taiwan had want to hit Chinese on the mainland they would have done it during the days of their Totalitarian regime and days of Martial law on the Taiwan island. If mainland China wanted to strike Taiwan they would have done it during the days of crazy Mao and his harsh dictator ways.

That is not necassarily true by then Taiwan was friendly with the USA and without a serious navy China could not really think of any attempt to invade Taiwan. Taiwan was also for all intents a very serious nut to crack and would have probable repulsed any major attack China could mount as China was a land based army and had not enough sea nad air assets to ensure complete superiority.

China has instead proceeded with a diplomatic campaign to isolate and weaken Taiwan and further in the last decade it has gained a navy. It regularily threatens the Taiwanese if they ever consider declaring independence they will immediately be invaded. This even when for all intents the Taiwanese are independent in everything but name. China regularily fires missiles across Taiwanese airspace and conducts invasion exercises. Add to this the sanctions China puts on people doing buisness with Taiwan and you can see why I Dont underestimate the threat China poses to Taiwan.

President Hugo Chavez has recently accused President Bush of plotting to assasinate him, made suggestive comments about Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, visited Fidel Castro in Cuba, bashed the United States on the al-Jazeera television network and travelled to Libya to recieve an award from Moammar Gaddafi

He has also in the process of creating a Leaque of South American countries opposed to the USA and is using much reduced oil supply costs to "bribe" them. Mr Chavez is a Venezuelan Nationalist and im not too sure even that sane to begin with. While he is giving all this money away do you know what is happening to the welfare of his country. Well he has basically let it collapse and it is only the Cuban doctors and Nurses that are over there as part of a people for Oil deal with Cuba that even lets Venezuela have an operational medical service. And who is the biggest support he gets from abroad yes its from China.

Another tin pot dictator and one who has turned on his own people is that of Robert Mugabe. The "police" and "party" soldiers have been bulldozing peoples houses down for weeks and moving them off there land for years. The population of Zimbabwe are starving there countries collapsing but where does the Zimbabwian goverment get all those new army vehicles those new helicopters those new Bulldozers. Yes they are all Chinese. And they are being given free.

Will China rock the world ? I think not for the Chinese don't have this ambition

Sorry, The Chinese seem to be deliberatly getting themselves on the side of just about every anti western anti USA anti Britain country or faction in the world. The only ones they dont appear to have been involved in is Al-Qhaeda and that is only becawse Al-Qhaeda wants to destroy China just as much as the western world.

BWhite · 2005-07-08 09:33:55

China has no need to fight the US militarily. Why fight a battle they clearly cannot win?

If they buy enough companies like Unocal our weapons end up rusting away and they never fire a shot. Already Nike and other conusmer goods companies direct their lobbyists to promote pro-Chinese policies on Capitol Hill.

If the Chinese wish to deploy a "nuclear" option, dumping dollars would be far more effective and less open to retaliation.

= = =

The Maginot Line actually was a tremendously effective military weapon. The French error was to rely upon it for =ALL= their security needs and to ignore the new fangled work around invented by the panzer officers.

I fear we will rely "too much" upon our superb military and the Chinese will find their own work around in the economic arena.

= = =

If a hot war goes nuclear, China's best move would be to ignore US civilian populations and hit Guam, Diego Garcia and our carrier battle groups with H-bombs.

Let the US be the first to nuke civilian populations.

BWhite · 2005-07-08 09:48:31

I think it's safe to say that if the United States and China were to enter into a serious state of active conflict with one another, then neither country would be much to speak of by the end of it. The foolishness of such an endeavor would be tantamount to national suicide for any nation involved in such a conflict.
I certainly hope it never happens but as I see it the ball is in China's hands. If they ever decide to invade Taiwan the US will have to assist them militarily.
As far as a nuclear conflict goes I would agree with your post, unless there are some things (fully operable anti-missile defense system?) that I don't know about.
As far as a conventional conflict goes, I think we can certainly hold our own. People like to quote that China has a million man army. That's great but how are they going to get them across the water to Taiwan or the US for that matter?
No country can project power anywhere near the capability of the U.S. Six aircraft carrier battle groups has a way of ruining any invasion plus nightly B-1 and B-2 attacks from Guam and Japan. Submarines would blockade China and cut off all seaborne supplies. Any ship heading to Taiwan would be an easy target for our subs and become a playpen for the fish. The electricity would go out and stay out, backup generators would suffice for a while. All bridges would be dropped, railways, and major roads destroyed. China would become a stone age country in two weeks.

Using Galileo and satellite recon, China could probably place H-bombs near enough to our carriers to destroy or at least disable them.

Mission kill 2 or 3 carriers and nuke Diego Garcia with NO American civilian casualties and then announce on CNN that any counter-strike on China's mainland will be responded to by nuking LA, San Franciso and Honolulu.

Guam? Matbe some modest civilian casualties.

Accept the flattening of Hainan Island as part of the attrition of war, saying that China will NOT nuke US civilians unless the US nukes Chinese civilians first.

= = =

We are indeed the world's most powerful military power (by far) but there is some brittleness there as well.

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