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Cindy, are we capable at all to discover Earth sized planets around stars?
If not, we still can't say much about probability, except x amount of obsered stars have gas giants.
But you mentioning a 'debris-disc,' .... is that simpler/harder to discover than Earth-sized objects?
*Hi Rik: I don't recall any stated indications (directly or indirectly) in articles I've read that we're incapable of finding Earth-sized exoplanets (except for the "look-alike Solar System" comment in the quote box at end end of my post; but that's not the same question).
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.htm … 43]Article I was referring to earlier (our Solar System is rare).
As for your last question: I don't know, and that hasn't been indicated. But they have, in one case, spotted what seems to be "clumps" within a debris disc and they're speculating those might be smaller planets (behind the hot-Jupiter known to be orbiting that star).
And the article openly admits:
However, the team are cautious about jumping to a definite conclusion too soon and warn about the second possible explanation for the apparent disparity between the solar system and the known extrasolar systems. Techniques currently in use are not yet capable of detecting a solar-system look-alike around a distant star, so a selection effect might be distorting the statistics - like a fisherman deciding that all fish are larger than 5 inches because that is the size of the holes in his net.
It will be another 5 years or so before astronomers have the observing power to resolve the question of which explanation is correct. Meanwhile, the current data leave open the possibility that the solar system is indeed different from other planetary systems.
--Cindy
We all know [i]those[/i] Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...
--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)
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Thanks for the info .I used to follow the planet hunters, but my "up-to-datedness" in that field is at least 2 yrs old, and things go fast. (I guess, they went very fast last time I checked, from 2-3 planets to a barrage..)
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Anyway, perhaps another way to look at this is to suggest reasons why we would want to keep alien visits secret from the general population.
If there are aliens visiting Earth, which is highly doubtful and not conclusively supported by available evidence, then they clearly aren't ready to announce their presence to the general public or they would have done so whatever the government might want. This being so, they would make sure that any government that knew about them, either through military intelligence or because the aliens revealed themselves to it, did not tell the world. Clearly the aliens (I am for now working with the postulate that aliens are visiting Earth even though I greatly doubt that it is true) don'twant to be bothered in their work by curious humans at this time. Consider what would happen if the existence of these aliens was revealed. In the midst of the mass panic and unending media coverage, a number of scientists, space flight enthusiasts, and others would be trying to track down the aliens, study them, get a hand on their space ships, etc. I might even join them. The aliens, however, would consider us a nuisance -- asking constant questions, presssing random buttons on the ship's control panel, taking pictures, trying to study alien biology, while they are trying to study Earth and humans and make their mission a success so they can return to Alpha Draconis as the astronaut heros who explored Earth. Whether or not the government wants to keep the existence of the aliens secret the aliens clearly want to keep their existence secret. Or rather they would if they existed, note that I am skeptical of the idea that we are being regularly visited by extraterrestrials.
Another problem with trying to figure out if the mililtary is covering up aliens is that they are covering up alot of other things, military technology, intelligence on other countries, etc. Alot of this they need to keep secret for reasons of national security. Some of it they probably just like keeping secret. The problem is noone really knows when they're telling the truth and when they're not. They say they don't know anything about UFOs, but they also say they don't know anything about any top-secret new aircraft. Stealth for example was kept secret for at least a decade. Who know what they're hiding now. Probably not aliens, but they can never prove that they're telling the truth.
Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun.
-The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
by Douglas Adams
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No aliens visit Earth.
And you can prove this how?
The same thing I would ask of someone who said the opposite.
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To be able to actually see an Earth size planet around a distant star we will need a telescope with a mirror of a minimum of 50 metres in diameter. To get that will need space construction as it cannot be built anywhere except in zero g.
Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.
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Considering that Earth has been around for five and a half billion years, it's not really that unlikely that someone has been by here at some point alhtough they obviously didn't say. Extraterrestrial visitation within historical time periods is plausible although unlikely. The idea that they are frequently visiting us nowadays and kidnapping people is extremely unlikely although not theoretically impossible. It is, however, an extraordinary claim that lacks extraordinary evidence.
Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun.
-The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
by Douglas Adams
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And you can prove this how?
The same thing I would ask of someone who said the opposite.
I can prove it the same way I can prove there are no elves.
Or fairies, or mermaids, or dogs that can talk.
The whole issue here is one of rational people suspending disbelief to allow the credibility of this fantasy to inhabit the same level as a quasi-scientific problem.
It isn't something that needs proof one way or the other. It is a fantasy until such time as little green men from the stars descend to give us the finger, or whatever it is that they do.
People want to believe, so they will find a way to believe. People will latch onto any plausible explanation in order to create some coherent guess at what is really going on.
So fast moving lights or weird computer blips *must* be explained, because our pitiful little minds abhores a mystery.
Yes, the thunder is the sound of angels bowling, and the rain is their tears.
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I can prove it the same way I can prove there are no elves.
Oh yeah? Then where do toys come from?
That's right, China. And what are elves? Funny short people. Who lives in China?
Point? That a real juicy UFO cover-up doesn't necessarilyinvolve visitors from beyond the stars brandishing anal probers. I for one get the impression that the public is getting fed excrement on this, I just happen to be among those that think the whole aliens angle is more likely part of the cover than the subject being covered up.
Or it could be nothing. <shrug>
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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Don't be silly, ever since the elves unionized, Santa has been forced to use Oompa-Loompa's.
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You can't prove anything without evidence. Maybe it's a fantasy in your closed mind but there are many regular people including police, airline, and military pilots who claim otherwise.
The Santa Claus lie is a terrible thing for parents to tell children. Adults like you are still traumatized so many years after.
How about explaining the reasons why you believe there are no aliens?
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You can't prove anything without evidence.
Prove there is no Santa Claus.
You miss the point here. I grant I cannot categorically prove that aliens do not exist. Just as I grant I cannot prove a figment of your imagination does not exist.
If I tell you that Pink Snafa-loons twirl in the cold dawn morning upon the collecting beads of dew that hang outside my bedroom window, would you think me sane or mad? What if everyone on my block saw it too? What if we showed you, as proof, fuzzy pictures with indistinct images, or grainy video that is out of focus and filled with static? What if people on my block, for years upon years, continued seeing the Pink Snafa-loons, yet in all that time, were never able to provide conclusive evidence- other than fuzzy pictures and out of focus video?
What would you think then? Would you believe in Pink Snafa-loons, without having seen them yourself? Would you believe me if I told you that a vast para-military conspiracy of clowns and mimes was keeping the truth from the waiting public? Would you buy my book, detailing the inner workings of the conspiracy that reaches far and wide, and also details where Pink Snafa-loons come from, and why they like to lick our toes?
On the one hand you deride parents for telling their children about Santa Claus, yet cling to a different fantasy with the vigor of any ten year old child who doesn’t want to come to grips with the truth of where the toys come from.
There are no aliens visiting Earth for the simple fact that to keep such a thing secret far outstrips the human races capability. To hide alien visitations from 6 billion people, for decades upon decades, is stretching belief. In all that time there has been no conclusive evidence to demonstrate that aliens have been visiting Earth.
But go ahead and chase the Yeti or the Lochness Monster. Be sure to buy the books.
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To take your pink snafa-loon example, if one person is running down the street naked screaming about them then I wouldn't give it much credence, but thousands? Including police, military and civilian pilots who have nothing to gain from such claims? I've never seen the Eifel Tower, yet somehow, I still believe it exists.
I never said the government was keeping aliens secret from us. What I said was that since I cannot prove they do not exist or that they are not visiting us, I keep an open mind to the possibility that they are. You claim "They are not here" as if you really know. But how does a 500 lb bull lose all of it's blood and have it's soft tissue cored out like it was removed with a laser? The owner found the bull the next day with it's horn stuck into the ground like it was dropped from above. The authorities just say "Oh, it's the satanists doing it". Right, I'll believe aliens before I blame it on satanists in helicopters.
Ancient peoples couldn't explain simple things like the wind, thunder, sickness. So they made the wind a spirit, a god for thunder, and blamed sickness on a so called witch. There are so many things we don't understand but since we think we are so smart we just say "It's not true." Many people have seen ghosts, had memories of other lifetimes, seen a UFO, claim to have been abducted, doctors have removed strange implantations, pilots have seen strange shapes do incredible maneuvers. Many of these people are reputable.
You think we are so smart, just like Star Trek. But I suspect that we are well below the power curve in the universe.
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I'll change my mind when there is some evidence that proves otherwise. What the ET folks have is worthless, and can be explained through less exotic theories.
Sometime frogs rain from the heavens because of a tornado or hurricane- not because God is angry.
As for professionals being witness to ET visitations... well, I'm sure they believe in what they saw, but eye witness accounts are horribly unreliable. [shrug]
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...how does a 500 lb bull lose all of it's blood and have it's soft tissue cored out like it was removed with a laser? The owner found the bull the next day with it's horn stuck into the ground like it was dropped from above.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Although I personally agree with the sentiment that if you're going to eat it, you ought to be willing to kill it yourself, modern industrial farming practices employ methods that I'd never use on another living creature. Always know where you're family's meat comes from, and avoid products from farms with questionable practices such as the use of laser powered cow corers.
The authorities just say "Oh, it's the satanists doing it". Right, I'll believe aliens before I blame it on satanists in helicopters.
Technically speaking, I have actually seen a satanist in a helicopter. Can't say I'd favor him for cattle mutilations any more than space aliens, though. Oh he's capable, of course, but I'm not aware that he and his buddies have that many helicopters.
Other strange phenomena that I've actually seen include both ghosts and UFO's.
For those of you who have never seen a ghost without benefit of electronics and/or photography, I can't really recommend it. That requires waking dreams or some other rather involved form of hallucination. Add to that all the extra effort of trying to jump up and grab your spectre by the ectoplasm, and it's really too much sugar for a dime. Take it from someone who has tried.
UFO's are far less taxing, and can be seen with greater frequency. Well, unidentified atmospheric phenomena can be seen with great frequency, anyway. Arthur C. Clarke once observed - very correctly - that anyone who has never seen something in the sky they can't identify is either very unobservant or lives in a very cloudy area. I can vouch for that. I've never heard of anyone being kidnapped by a lenticular cloud formation, though.
I don't know about alien spacecraft. My own observations are rather recent, but include no recent alien abductions occurring outside of hypnotherapists' offices. Perhaps the aliens have learned all that anal probing can teach them. Or, given the prevalence of alien abduction in hypnotherapist offices, perhaps they have merely restricted their sample set. I can't say. Maybe avoiding hypnotherapists could affect one's incidence of anal probing?
You think we are so smart, just like Star Trek.
Please, don't insult Star Trek.
"We go big, or we don't go." - GCNRevenger
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Technically speaking, I have actually seen a satanist in a helicopter.
*Don't you mean a hellicopter? ??? :;):
I've never heard of anyone being kidnapped by a lenticular cloud formation, though.
:laugh: :laugh:
--Cindy
We all know [i]those[/i] Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...
--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)
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Clark: You need evidence to believe in ET's? That is exactly what I said but I add that without proof I cannot disprove their existence either. Our argument was simple. You claimed that ET's do not exist and I wanted to see your proof.
CM Eddie: Do you really believe a ranch would kill it's own animal by using a laser powered corer (does such a thing even exist?) and then claim some ET did it?
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I can prove it the same way I can prove there are no elves.
Or fairies, or mermaids, or dogs that can talk.
For UFOs it's actually a bit harder. These things you can prove by the fact that if these things existed on Earth we would almost certainly have seen lots of them, have good pictures of them, have captured them, etc. If a few aliens drop by now and then, we might not know. It's possible that there have been a few alien spaceships visiting Earth and noone's ever seen them, while they have seen thousands of UFOs that aren't extraterrestrial. I'm sure most UFO reports are false, but there's nothing that I find inconcevable about aliens visiting Earth once in a while.
Point? That a real juicy UFO cover-up doesn't necessarilyinvolve visitors from beyond the stars brandishing anal probers. I for one get the impression that the public is getting fed excrement on this, I just happen to be among those that think the whole aliens angle is more likely part of the cover than the subject being covered up.
That theory certainly makes a lot of sense and is probably more likely than aliens. (If one explanation works for all cases anyway.) I seem to remember hearing once that the Air Force admitted to encouraging UFO reports to cover up a stealth bomber or something like that. I wonder what tech they're covering up now.
Do you really believe a ranch would kill it's own animal by using a laser powered corer (does such a thing even exist?) and then claim some ET did it?
I'm sure there's someone who would do it just for the fifteen minutes of fame. There are some pretty sick-minded people out there.
Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the Western Spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun.
-The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
by Douglas Adams
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Technically speaking, I have actually seen a satanist in a helicopter.
Well, that beats my socialist in an autogyro.
Unless in addition to cow mutilations there were a few capitalist pigs cored with lasers.
Arthur C. Clarke once observed - very correctly - that anyone who has never seen something in the sky they can't identify is either very unobservant or lives in a very cloudy area.
For me it's the latter. Between the clouds, a good chunk of military airspace and a commerical airport most of the goings-on above are either obscured or readily identifiable. Never seen a UFO; just Venus, "atmospheric effects" and one of those flying dreadnoughts the Navy has.
But this silliness isn't without method. People see things they can't explain all the time, sometimes people that really should know if they're seeing a weather balloon, atmospehric refraction or a satanist flying a Sikorsky.
Does anyone really have any idea what an alien spacecraft looks like? Sure, we can speculate but what we really come up with are possibilities for what a human interstellar spacecraft would like. Does that mean the Air Force has been building flying saucers for decades and never bothered to metnion it? Not at all, but think of it this way: If you were living during WWII and were very familiar with the most advanced piston-engined aircraft at the time, and then you saw a B-2 fly overhead. . . what would you make of it?
Originally I typed B-58 but no one remembers the Hustler. The noise, the maintenance problems, the abyssmal fuel efficiency. They just don't build 'em like that anymore.
Then again, human senses are terribly unreliable and all this may be nothing. Back in the 1800's people would see light-adorned mystery airships, or so they thought. Either we lost the records to the military's secret disco-Zeppelin program, they were somebody elses craft, or something was in the water. Who can say.
Besides clark, of course. :;):
Edited By Cobra Commander on 1118316468
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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What I always found facinating is that those who do not believe in god will still usually believe in aliens.
Ironic really. :laugh:
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What I always found facinating is that those who do not believe in god will still usually believe in aliens.
Ironic really.
I accept the possibility of aliens. To call it a belief is giving it too much weight.
Life from elsewhere doesn't really seem that extraordinary. It's all just meat.
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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Life from elsewhere doesn't really seem that extraordinary. It's all just meat.
Which begs the question, why then would they really be interested in coming here?
Hell, most here want to get away. :laugh:
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The grass is always greener. . .
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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only because you haven't had to mow it. :;):
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I'd pave it if it weren't for the damn zoning board.
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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They would put you away if it weren't for your damn rights.
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