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#1 2005-02-17 20:10:27

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]http://www.spacedaily.com/news/stellar-05g.html

well, they'd have to have survived past the industrial age and become not only space faring civilizations, but probably pretty darned advanced technologically to have survived that explosion.[/color:post_uid0]

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#2 2005-02-18 00:48:58

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]If the E.T's on the other side of the galaxy were advanced enough to overcome that newtron star quake, then they should be quite noticable in their technological ability.

I suppose that brings back the arguement that they'd be so advanced that they would be undetectable; but, why would they choose to not use up the resources around them?  I would think they would make that region a series of dyson spheres or something like such.[/color:post_uid0]

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#3 2005-02-18 01:26:36

Trebuchet
Member
From: Florida
Registered: 2004-04-26
Posts: 419

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]To be honest, making assumptions about what kind of things an advanced civilization could or couldn't do is a pointless exercise in self-deception. If we knew exactly what the future would hold, it would already be here.

But more on-topic, the article says that it *might* destroy all life on Earth if it had happened 10 light years away. We can pretend that the scientist quoted underestimated the lethality by half, so that the lethal distance is 20 light years; that makes a 'death zone' of ~33523 cubic lightyears. This sounds like a lot, until you consider that within the same 20 ly bubble from our sun, there are only 127 stars out of 100,000,000,000 in the galaxy.  Not really much of a threat....[/color:post_uid0]

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#4 2005-02-28 21:27:10

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]Knowing what the future would hold does not necessarilly mean it will get here any faster; this is the leonardo da vinci lesson.

Getting a little off topic, I can't help thinking that if there are tons of E.T.'s out there, that not 'one' E.T. wouldn't want to contact us; what's the probability?  That logic right there pretty much says either one of two possibilities; 1) there are not much more than one or two other E.T.'s out there right now, and/or 2) there was a first, and they rule with an iron fist . . . .

I'm still being lazy about looking up the extent of a gamma ray burst in the area of a galaxy, but I seem to remember at the end of "Rare Earth" they mentioned a gamma ray burst detected by satellites in 98 and saying if it was half as close(it was something like twenty thousand light years away; how amazinging large this galaxy is when you say twenty thousand light years . . . .), then we would have been fried.[/color:post_uid0]

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#5 2005-03-01 08:01:08

Cobra Commander
Member
From: The outskirts of Detroit.
Registered: 2002-04-09
Posts: 3,039

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=000066:post_uid0]

but I seem to remember at the end of "Rare Earth" they mentioned a gamma ray burst detected by satellites in 98 and saying if it was half as close(it was something like twenty thousand light years away; how amazinging large this galaxy is when you say twenty thousand light years . . . .), then we would have been fried.[/quote:post_uid0]

Just a caveat, take "Rare Earth" with a grain of salt. It is heavily influenced by "intelligent design" thinking rather than pure science.

A link, one of many that summarize the background:
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/ … i_79794362

Also, the book "Life Everywhere: The Maverick Science of Astrobiology" by David Darling is mentioned at the heart of the article, I recommend reading both that book and "Rare Earth" for a more balanced perspective on the matter.

Er, This has been a public service announcement from Cobra.   smile[/color:post_uid0]


Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#6 2005-03-05 14:25:58

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]well, I guess I finally found the time to respond to CC . . . what kind of critical thinking skills is that?  Sounds to me like you just go with what is cool to believe; i think that should be the last time I talk to you.[/color:post_uid0]

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#7 2005-03-07 06:44:51

Cobra Commander
Member
From: The outskirts of Detroit.
Registered: 2002-04-09
Posts: 3,039

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=000066:post_uid0]???

I think you may have misinterpreted something there, flash.[/color:post_uid0]


Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#8 2005-03-11 09:11:17

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]i just want to reply saying I didn't even bother reading the links provided by Cobra Commander, but I'm not going to spend the time to make a more involved reply for now.[/color:post_uid0]

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#9 2005-04-07 10:18:15

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]I havn't read the David Darling book yet, but I would like to mention that I used to go to a website of his that went down, but apparently, he's gotten it back up!  He generally has some pretty good science and tech links that I rarely saw anywhere else.

Checking out his "Life Everywhere" book, I find it doesn't address the multicellular life issue or the chances of technological species; shoot, I doute he even talks about Stuart Kauffman's complexity theory.

As for his chapter on the 'Rare Earth' hypothesis, i still want to read exactly what his arguements are, but as for the 'rare earth' hypothesis being influenced by creationist scientists; i for one have known about such ideas through Isaac Asimov's "Extraterrestrial Civilizations", and then through another phd astrophysicist writing a fact piece in Analog: Science Fiction and Fact's september 97 issue.  These people have come up with very similar points to be made outside of the creationist that influenced the 'Rare Earth' book authors.  They don't just pick facts that suit; there's no 'circular reasoning'; And despite the appeal this stuff has for creationist, the 'rare earth' idea fits in just fine with statistical analyses.

I look at the earth apart from the rest of the bodies in our solar system and conclude that life can't do it's gaia thing arbitrarily; and what is the chance a mars like object hits an earth in the right orbit just right to make for a moon?[/color:post_uid0]

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#10 2005-04-07 11:08:22

Cobra Commander
Member
From: The outskirts of Detroit.
Registered: 2002-04-09
Posts: 3,039

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=000066:post_uid0]

I look at the earth apart from the rest of the bodies in our solar system and conclude that life can't do it's gaia thing arbitrarily; and what is the chance a mars like object hits an earth in the right orbit just right to make for a moon?[/quote:post_uid0]

But that's just it, Earth is the only planet we know of that has life. It could be because it's exceedingly rare and requires very specific conditions, or more likely that our technological limitations confine us to an insanely small sample. While it's tempting to look at every aspect of our one data point, see how it helps life and conclude it's necessary we have no real basis for that assumption. Maybe [i:post_uid0]every[/i:post_uid0] planetary system has an Earth-like planet. Maybe most planetary systems have Earth-like [i:post_uid0]moons[/i:post_uid0] teeming with life in orbit of gas giants, we have no way of knowing.

As for the "requirement" of a large moon, that is an example of circular reasoning. "[i:post_uid0]Earth has a big moon that affects tides, tides may have been important in the start of life, therefore a large moon is necessary for life.[/i:post_uid0]" It's a huge stretch.

But again, the point is we don't know. the "Rare Earth" hypothesis may be correct or may be total bunk, we don't have enough information to make an informed decision. In the end it's all just idle speculation until we greatly increase our data.[/color:post_uid0]


Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#11 2005-04-07 11:34:52

clark
Member
Registered: 2001-09-20
Posts: 6,253

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]From the data available, we can positively conclude that the conditions neccessary for life to exsist on Earth are "X", which is based on the parameters of our solar system, our planet, and nearby stealler objects that can influence us in any appreciable way.

Those factors may not be true elsewhere, thus life may develop and thrive under a different set of circumstances and variables, or perhaps not.

Saying definitvely, one way or the other, based on what we currently know, is sheer faith.

All we know for sure is what was (is) needed for life here.[/color:post_uid0]

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#12 2005-04-07 11:45:00

Cobra Commander
Member
From: The outskirts of Detroit.
Registered: 2002-04-09
Posts: 3,039

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=000066:post_uid0]

All we know for sure is what was (is) needed for life here.[/quote:post_uid0]

We don't even know that, strictly speaking. We know what conditions we have here and have some inkling of how they affect the specific life here. Anything else, trying to find causal relationships, is an act of pure speculation with virtually no basis.[/color:post_uid0]


Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#13 2005-04-07 12:07:15

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]it's what I would call a natural science "mathematical induction" arguement; it is clearly the case even here on earth that there is a temperature range for life; just looking at the moon and the sun shows life doesn't come in different forms on those worlds; looking at the rest of the universe, you see much the same conditions(as astronomers like to say, 99% of the universe is made of stars).

You sound to me like your expecting something totally unexpected like gas clouds aquiring lifelike consciousness or something.

The example above that you suggest is circular reasoning is not; it started out at one point and ended up somewhere else not back to where it started from.[/color:post_uid0]

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#14 2005-04-07 12:20:57

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]although I do see what your trying to say about the reasoning; it is kindof like what Carl Sagan said about people concluding venus had dinosaurs; perpetual clouds, therefore swamps, therefor dinosaurs! 

The real problem here is assumptions are not being analysed well enough there.  The question with the E.T. debate is whether life can come in other forms other than what's been found here on earth; i'm saying that the varied conditions exhibited right here in our solar system shows that life is not going to spring up in a vacuum or the obliteration of matter on the surface of the sun; there are no conscious gas clouds.[/color:post_uid0]

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#15 2005-04-07 12:21:57

Cobra Commander
Member
From: The outskirts of Detroit.
Registered: 2002-04-09
Posts: 3,039

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=000066:post_uid0]

The example above that you suggest is circular reasoning is not; it started out at one point and ended up somewhere else not back to where it started from.[/quote:post_uid0]

It's circular in the sense that it essentially says "Earth has life and a large moon, therefore a large moon is a requirement for life." It's similar to saying "Birds fly and have feathers, therefore feathers are necessary for flight." Specifc details of one example in no way imply a universal rule.

just looking at the moon and the sun shows life doesn't come in different forms on those worlds; looking at the rest of the universe, you see much the same conditions(as astronomers like to say, 99% of the universe is made of stars).

You sound to me like your expecting something totally unexpected like gas clouds aquiring lifelike consciousness or something.
[/quote:post_uid0]

We aren't looking at the rest of the universe in the sense of searching for life, we can't. We are unable to resolve much less examine small, Earth-like planets. We don't know what's out there. I don't expect that the universe is teeming with exotic life totally different from that which we can conceive of, but at the same time I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if conditions and life comparable to those of Earth arise from very different circumstances. Earth-like moons orbiting gas giant planets as one of many possible examples.

Moons no doubt inhabited by beings carrying on essentially pointless debates about whether or not orbiting a massive gas planet is a requirement for the formation of life.
:;):[/color:post_uid0]


Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#16 2005-04-07 13:00:06

flashgordon
Member
Registered: 2003-01-21
Posts: 314

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]O.K. I see where a little fuzzy concepts can lead to some circular reasoning there.

Getting back to weird topologies for the existence of life though, the earth/moon system is a weird topology!  On the other hand, we have varied topologies throughout our solar system; mercury is phase-locked to the sun but there is no life on the face towards or away; there is no life at the edges either.  The moons of our gas giants may have bacteria; great for David Darling and Stuart Kauffman!  But, not great for them if they are looking for 'technological civilizations' as Asimov liked to say; we're not looking for mere life; we're looking for space faring technological species!
  Just looking at the history of the earth that we know of shows the problems that come up with all the high energy processes that destroys life; you need a really small energetic system stable for long periods of time.  It doesn't matter what the system topology is if the energetic processes surrounding it doesn't settle down for long enough periods; your example of moons around gas giants doesn't work because if you had those gas giants in earth like orbits, the earth like moons your hoping for are going to constantly go from freezing to heating - not good!

Looking out in the universe, we see more energetic processes than not!  I'm talking about astronomically large energetic processes that you don't need to observe the individual topologies of each circumstance to see that the energetic processes surrounding them is way to much or way to cold![/color:post_uid0]

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#17 2005-04-07 13:10:14

Cobra Commander
Member
From: The outskirts of Detroit.
Registered: 2002-04-09
Posts: 3,039

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=000066:post_uid0]

Looking out in the universe, we see more energetic processes than not!  I'm talking about astronomically large energetic processes that you don't need to observe the individual topologies of each circumstance to see that the energetic processes surrounding them is way to much or way to cold![/quote:post_uid0]

Based on what we expect to find, which is based on our one example in our immediate vicinity. It could be argued that our sun is slightly too hot and emits too much radiation, a somewhat cooler K type star may be more conducive to life. We really don't know what common factors we should be looking for.

Bu then I'm inclined to agree that life in the sense of microbes is likely more common than complex multicellular life. More speculation of course, but rooted in the logically defensible (but unproven) belief that since microbes can [i:post_uid0]survive[/i:post_uid0] in the absence of a complete biosphere perhaps they can [i:post_uid0]arise[/i:post_uid0] in one as well whereas we'll almost certainly never find a planet covered in desert except for a patch of grass and one elephant.[/color:post_uid0]


Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.

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#18 2005-04-07 15:00:05

clark
Member
Registered: 2001-09-20
Posts: 6,253

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]Oh, the lonilest Oliphant. Poor thing.[/color:post_uid0]

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#19 2005-04-08 07:17:16

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: you can count out the other side of the galaxy, - for the existence of technological civil

[color=#000000:post_uid0]It is entirely possible we could encounter ourselves. Possibility is simply a path separated from this one by a boundary. If we start geting into Gravity experiments and Singularity propulsion, we may well breach that boundary. A meeting could prove...Unhealthy. Especially if we are not interested in surrendering to the interdimensional empire of Montana.[/color:post_uid0]

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