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#1 2005-03-02 13:09:24

Tim
Member
From: Rhode Island
Registered: 2004-02-19
Posts: 12

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I think this is great, but they can't possibly be serious about a 57 billion dollar budget can they? ???

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ja … 50228.html

Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle
By Associated Press

TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's plans to start building a manned base on the moon and a manned space shuttle within the next 20 years, a newspaper report said Monday.

Japan's space agency, JAXA, is drawing up plans to develop a robot to conduct probes on the moon by 2015, then begin constructing a solar-powered manned research base on the planet and design a reusable manned space vessel like the U.S. space shuttle by 2025, the Mainichi Shimbun said.

The space agency's budget could be boosted six-fold to $57 billion to assist those plans, the Mainichi said.

The plans also include using satellites to send information on evacuation routes, locators on people's whereabouts and alerts to cell phones in the event of major emergencies like a tsunami, the daily said.

JAXA officials were unavailable for immediate comment late Monday.

Japan has long focused on unmanned scientific probes. In a major policy switch last year, however, a government panel recommended that the country consider its own manned space program.

Long Asia's leading spacefaring nation, Japan has been struggling to get out from under the shadow of China, which put its first astronaut into orbit in October 2003. Beijing has since announced it is aiming for the moon.

One month after China's breakthrough, a Japanese H-2A rocket carrying two spy satellites malfunctioned after liftoff, forcing controllers to end its mission in a spectacular fireball.

Further launches were put on hold for 15 months, but on Saturday Japan took a big step to re-establish the credibility of its space program with the successful launch of a domestically designed H-2A rocket that placed a communications satellite into orbit

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#2 2005-03-02 14:07:41

John Creighton
Member
From: Nova Scotia, Canada
Registered: 2001-09-04
Posts: 2,401
Website

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

57 billion? Isn’t NASA’s budget only 40 billion. It is interesting that they said they will focus on a reusable vehicle like the shuttle. Hopefully it isn’t too much like the shuttle. If Japan develops a truly reusable launch vehicle and USA develops heavy lift between them they could have quite a space program.

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#3 2005-03-02 14:41:29

GCNRevenger
Member
From: Earth
Registered: 2003-10-14
Posts: 6,056

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

No, NASA's budget is only about ~$15 Billion. It seems unlikly that Japan would invest so much money in a space program, even though it is not impossible


"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw

The glass is at 50% of capacity

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#4 2005-03-02 15:42:27

Ian Flint
Member
From: Colorado
Registered: 2003-09-24
Posts: 437

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

They probably meant 57 billion over 20 years.

I'd love to see Japanese astronauts in space.  The more the merrier.

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#5 2005-03-02 15:42:40

Martin_Tristar
Member
From: Earth, Region : Australia
Registered: 2004-12-07
Posts: 305

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

GCNRevenger,

Asian people look at long terms, and western people for the short term buck. Many of the Japanese Corporations have voices plans for moon base facilities and orbital facilities. It is logical to need a reusable spaceplane for movement of personnel.

I could see JAXA getting the $57 Billion per year for exploration of space and also remember Japan having an energy crisis, may look at the fusion possibilities of He3 on the moon as a potential solution and wants there take on it.

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#6 2005-03-02 17:13:02

Commodore
Member
From: Upstate NY, USA
Registered: 2004-07-25
Posts: 1,021

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

Great. More power to them. I'd love to see NASA and the JAXA work hand in hand in the conquest of the Moon. I just hope the US Congress doesn't throw a monkey wrench in the whole thing.


"Yes, I was going to give this astronaut selection my best shot, I was determined when the NASA proctologist looked up my ass, he would see pipes so dazzling he would ask the nurse to get his sunglasses."
---Shuttle Astronaut Mike Mullane

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#7 2005-03-02 17:28:10

Dook
Banned
From: USA
Registered: 2004-01-09
Posts: 1,409

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

Many of the Japanese Corporations have voices plans for moon base facilities and orbital facilities.

I could see JAXA getting the $57 Billion per year for exploration of space and also remember Japan having an energy crisis, may look at the fusion possibilities of He3 on the moon as a potential solution and wants there take on it.

I'm curious, what agencies have voiced plans for orbital and moon base facilities?

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#8 2005-03-02 17:45:39

Grypd
Member
From: Scotland, Europe
Registered: 2004-06-07
Posts: 1,859

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I wonder why Japan wants to spend so much money, It certainly indicates plans greater than just to build a lunar base. And so what could it be......Mineral Mining :?  big_smile


Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

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#9 2005-03-02 20:03:23

Commodore
Member
From: Upstate NY, USA
Registered: 2004-07-25
Posts: 1,021

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I wonder why Japan wants to spend so much money, It certainly indicates plans greater than just to build a lunar base. And so what could it be......Mineral Mining :?  big_smile

The fact that Japan is short of natural resources is nothing new.

Hopefully Pearl Harbor will get by unscathed this time.  big_smile


"Yes, I was going to give this astronaut selection my best shot, I was determined when the NASA proctologist looked up my ass, he would see pipes so dazzling he would ask the nurse to get his sunglasses."
---Shuttle Astronaut Mike Mullane

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#10 2005-03-02 21:18:26

RobS
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From: South Bend, IN
Registered: 2002-01-15
Posts: 1,701
Website

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I am sure the 57 billion dollar figure is over 20 years; there's no way they'd start spending 57 billion per year. Japan needs "make work" projects to stimulate the economy, but not that badly! As for mineral mining, NO ONE knows how to make a profit that way right now, and I doubt the Japanese have any secret information.

         -- RobS

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#11 2005-03-03 06:18:19

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,348

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

All mining questions aside the main problem for Japan is property area. Island bound for growth and not to mention volcanoes, earth quakes and tsunami's. They need land.

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#12 2005-03-03 09:26:37

Dook
Banned
From: USA
Registered: 2004-01-09
Posts: 1,409

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

All mining questions aside the main problem for Japan is property area. They need land.

Are you serious?  They need land so they are going to set up bases on the moon?  That's insane.

The only purpose for going to the moon is for the benefit of science.

I've been to Japan about 8 times and their cities are crowded but they do have agricultural areas.  If they really needed more land that bad they could reduce the amount of farmland and depend on imported foods.

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#13 2005-03-03 09:36:15

clark
Member
Registered: 2001-09-20
Posts: 6,253

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

FYI, Japan's population is decreasing, not increasing.

A lot of this is because of China, and the need to be competitive in the space technology areas (not to mention the politcal role space research plays in Asia).

Seems a lot of different countries are sounding out space policy similar to the VSE...

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#14 2005-03-07 18:49:39

Vir Stellae
Member
From: Cow Hampshire, USA
Registered: 2003-12-08
Posts: 83

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I am going to throw flags on the field... There is no way Japan could afford this, they have a shrinking population, an economy that pretty much hasnt grown in 15 years,  and government deficits and debts larger than the USA despite being 2/5ths our size....

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#15 2005-03-07 23:03:55

RobS
Member
From: South Bend, IN
Registered: 2002-01-15
Posts: 1,701
Website

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I suppose it depends on what you mean by "afford." We're talking about three billion per year for twenty years. I am sure the Japanese spend three billion per year on a lot of things.

                -- RobS

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#16 2005-03-08 21:03:37

Yang Liwei Rocket
Member
Registered: 2004-03-03
Posts: 993

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I am going to throw flags on the field... There is no way Japan could afford this, they have a shrinking population, an economy that pretty much hasnt grown in 15 years,  and government deficits and debts larger than the USA despite being 2/5ths our size....

I had a quick scan around on this one, in places like mainichi, thespacesite, thejapantimes, japantoday, badastronomy, asahi, space.com and universetoday. It seems many posters look at this Japan move with  skepticism, its not that the Japanese can't  do it they have the tech, but they are crippled by banking corruption and bad politics.   

Many people say stuff like ' Japanese are going to have to buckle down and build a bigger rocket if they are serious' and  to quote others ' Japan faces cash cuts ....you thought the US Economy and NASA had trouble , Japanese Space faces many worse things.'  In Japan Space there have 'been six major failures in the past 6-7 years, last year it launch of spy satellites turned into an expensive H-2 fireball, million of dollars down the drain'. Years earlier a bad motor sent the communication satellite to be burnt in the radiation belts, Nozomi the Mars craft went Kaput, in 98 the H 2 second-stage went sayonara, then during a second attempt the first-stage H2 engine failed more billions of yen blown up, later a faulty turbine caused their main rocket to explode and Japan was exploring the bottom of the Pacific with its rockets instead of going to Space. Recently they have failed to launch spy satellites over N Korea, and in Feb of this year the country went back into another recession.  .

Another reason they might have stuff with a space management that has seen six major failures is that Japan might have been trying to send more military applications into space, going to an outsider like the USA and Europe could be a problem for them.

It would be nice to see Japan get its space industry back on track, but with economic stagnation for the past 15 yrs this may not happen

Another error often posted by news sources is to call Japan the 2nd largest economy, it had that place in the early 90s but has since fallen

Today the Chinese and EU and USA Economy have gone far beyond Japan

Japanese are ranked 4th, they have rising homless problems and might soon be passed by Russia or India if the Japan Banking debts continue to rise, this will have a negative effect on their space industry. It would be good if there was maybe a Economic, Space and trade race in Asia with Chinese, S.Koreans, Indians and Japanese. But so far it seems the Japanese have already lost this one.

Much of the Japan plans for the Moon is just talk
and talk is cheap


'first steps are not for cheap, think about it...
did China build a great Wall in a day ?' ( Y L R newmars forum member )

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#17 2005-03-08 23:13:37

Martin_Tristar
Member
From: Earth, Region : Australia
Registered: 2004-12-07
Posts: 305

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

Remember,

The greatest way to get to the people's heart is a national pride in their country. I can tell you that if the Japanese projected that this will save face for the country the people will do it. This might fix some of the issues within the financial sector by encouraging the people to rally behind their businesses and gamble with greatest once more. The country has come back from many things in the past and this might be the catalyst for the next turn around.

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#18 2005-03-09 12:49:17

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 18,348

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

One the note of a shuttle, japan was working on a model of it back in 2003 which crashed on landing.
Scale model of Japanese space shuttle crashes in Swedish swamp

It would appear they have given up on it. No reference of it is on the Jaxa , Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency

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#19 2005-03-24 12:25:35

Tim
Member
From: Rhode Island
Registered: 2004-02-19
Posts: 12

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

Here's some new info. It gives what looks like an accurate account of the budget, but it doesn't exactly sound peaceful, more like they're looking forward to forming the Greater Lunar Co-Prosperity Sphere™.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20050317wo71.htm

JAXA seeks to bodily go, and to go it alone

The Yomiuri Shimbun

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency has decided in its long-term plan to 2025 to work toward manned space activities on its own and develop a hypersonic liquid hydrogen-fueled transport capable of crossing the Pacific Ocean in two hours at Mach 5.

The plan was approved by a panel of external advisers Wednesday and will be officially approved later this month.

Under the plan, JAXA will convert its H-II Transfer Vehicle into a spacecraft capable of manned flight, with a test flight scheduled for 2008. The HTV is an unmanned vehicle used to deliver supplies and other logistic support to the International Space Station (ISS).

By 2015, JAXA intends to improve the reliability of its H-2A rocket to the extent it can be be used to launch an HTV. JAXA also will look to improve its technology for recovering capsules returning to Earth from a HTV. The agency will experiment with adding wings to an HTV, enabling it to be reused like the U.S. space shuttle. But first, the agency wants to build a single-use manned spacecraft that is similar to the Russian Soyuz.

<span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>In anticipation of a manned international station being completed on the moon by 2025, JAXA is seeking to secure superiority in the use of the moon's resources.</span> This will be achieved through data collected by a satellite inserted into a lunar orbit in fiscal 2006 and JAXA's development of its own technology to achieve manned space flight, utilizing experience gained through ISS programs.

In September, the Cabinet Office's Council for Science and Technology Policy said it would discuss the possibility of embarking on independent manned space exploration in 20 to 30 years. The long-term plan gave concrete form to the council's policy. JAXA will make a final decision on whether it will implement the plan in full after evaluating the progress achieved by 2015.

The agency has set a goal of acquiring high-value-added technology to increase the nation's competitiveness in the aviation industry, such as by the development of a hypersonic transport that would cut the flight time from Tokyo to Los Angeles from 10 hours to two hours.

JAXA intends to demonstrate the technology of unmanned hypersonic transport by 2025 and commercialize the service some time after 2030.

JAXA estimates the cost for the long-term plan during the first 10 years at 250 billion yen to 280 billion yen a year. JAXA's current yearly budget is about 180 billion yen.

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#20 2005-03-26 05:31:42

Yang Liwei Rocket
Member
Registered: 2004-03-03
Posts: 993

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I am going to throw flags on the field... There is no way Japan could afford this, they have a shrinking population, an economy that pretty much hasnt grown in 15 years,  and government deficits and debts larger than the USA despite being 2/5ths our size....

it would be great to see Japan do this

but Japanese have much worse economic trouble and cost cutting than NASA faces with the Bush Economy

Japan is approaching its financial limits. Government debt already exceeds 130 percent of GDP

The decade of stagnation and deflation has left Japan's financial sector saddled with trillions of dollars in bad debts that are growing more rapidly than they can be written off.

Japan's struggling lunar programme is plagued by money shortages and technical hitches, the country's space officials say

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's drive to curb public debt may further reduce consumer spending this year as the government cancels construction projects and increases income taxes and pension contributions. The government predicts the public debt will rise to 151 percent of GDP

Japan's space programme has faced a series of setbacks since the mid-1990s, including a spate of launch failures.
The launch of Japan's Lunar-A mission intended to shed light on the moon's origin and evolution using a module to land on its surface was set for August 2004 but no new date has been set

some say they have lost a Quadrillion of yen
Add in other liabilities such as unfunded pensions, other public-sector debts, and contingent liabilities such as government guarantees for troubled medium-sized companies then the number grows to well above 300 percent of GDP. Goldman Sachs’ vice chairman for Asia estimated debt to be above 400 percent.
Japan's next generation domestic rocket, the H2-A, capable of carrying about four tonne satellites, has had five successful launches despite various mechanical failures and delays.
From spacedaily :
"Another source of worry is money. Due to the current financial condition of Japan, funds have dried up. A year ago, we proposed a SELENE-II but the committee never cleared it"
Japan's space budget was cut by 0.01 percent in 2004 to 273.2 billion yen (2.7 billion dollars) from 2003, a space agency official  said.
Some people remark Japan’s economy will simply collapse

Let's hope Japan can fix this


'first steps are not for cheap, think about it...
did China build a great Wall in a day ?' ( Y L R newmars forum member )

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#21 2005-03-26 17:38:54

Grypd
Member
From: Scotland, Europe
Registered: 2004-06-07
Posts: 1,859

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

But Japan has a large amount of National Pride in the persuit of space but like NASA, JAXA is involved in more than just space rockets. It could easily afford a decent manned space drive and this with a broad public support especially if it was thought they where racing the Chinese.

And Japan is very worried about the Chinese even to the fact it has just increased the spending on its armed forces by almost 5% this year.


Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

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#22 2005-03-27 01:05:47

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

Australia could invite Japan, Singapore and Indonesia to join the Commonwealth. That would allow them to work towards a common goal, expand on a well mixed population base and get the sort of ecomomic growth that would equal China.

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#23 2005-03-27 02:00:21

PurduesUSAFguy
Member
From: Purdue University
Registered: 2004-04-04
Posts: 237

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

I would be amazed and thrilled if the Japanese put together a manned space program, especially if they did it before the ESA, but as it stands I'm not holding my breath on either faction producing much of anything.

At the same time, I'm not sure the CEV is going to fly anywhere near when it's supposed to and the Shuttle is just not going to be maintainable all that much longer....

I think our only hope is with heavy lift or the private sector pulling something out of its hat.

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#24 2005-03-27 02:38:34

srmeaney
Member
From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810
Registered: 2005-03-18
Posts: 976

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

Considering that Mars will need heavy lift in the order of 30 tonne * 100 launches *360 days*1000 years, It is going to take more than Just private sector interest.

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#25 2005-03-27 07:11:03

Martin_Tristar
Member
From: Earth, Region : Australia
Registered: 2004-12-07
Posts: 305

Re: Japan Eyes Future Manned Moon Base, Space Shuttle

srmeaney,

What Crap talking about creating a merger between Australia, Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and the Commonwealth !!!!!

Firstly, It won't happen !!!!, because of WW2 and the current issues with Indonesia and world events. Anyhow , If Australia the creators of the micro processor ( then sold it to the Americans ) and many other inventions  and if they wanted to go into space they would, the same for the Japanese and Singapore People.

Anyhow we need to develop new technology and new methods for development, As Albert Einstein said " Imagination is the essences of development of new ideas and technologies or processes" - roughly speaking.

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