China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US?

ERRORIST · 2005-01-26 21:05:50

5 years ago I said this so now it is just 15 years

SpaceNut · 2005-02-02 12:48:22

China, Russia To Hold First Ever Joint Military Drill

Russia and China will conduct their first ever joint military exercises in August or September to better coordinate the fight against terrorism, state media reported Tuesday.

Wow...

Manchu4 · 2005-02-11 15:08:24

Course if China avoids wasting money on a space station and a reusable shuttle, they should end up nicely ahead of the the US in space.

GCNRevenger · 2005-02-11 19:39:23

China isn't as advanced in spaceflight as you might think. They are just now catching up to what the Russians have been able to do for decades (Proton/Zenit/Angara class launchers, basic space capsules), and will take some time to develop lander technology, habitats, etc.

Grypd · 2005-02-12 14:55:06

But it has gained a lot from the collapse of the USSR and most certainly from the experiences of those who have gone before. Add in there willingness to cooperate with other space organisations apart from NASA who refused them, and you get a very rapid learning curve.

So the Chinese may well get "advanced" faster than people who see there late entry into space can envision. And of course they can allways trade technology or simply purloin it.

deagleninja · 2005-02-19 12:49:31

Well its been awhile since I started this forum and while the Chinesse space program has only crawled ahead their economy is stronger than ever. We just racked up yet another trade defecit with China and the US economy is in a freefall. Maybe I wasnt so crazy after all?

LtlPhysics · 2005-02-19 15:37:05

China and Russia will be having war games to better coordinate each other for the war on terrorism? That's a hoot.

Dook · 2005-02-19 16:17:34

US economy in a freefall? Uh, look again.

Alexander Sheppard · 2005-02-19 17:24:30

I might note, while we are having this discussion, that world economic growth is considerably slower in recent decades than in the "Golden Era" of 1945-73. It's true more for the third world (though one may need to except China from calculations) than the first world. But US growth has also slowed, and the growth of wages has been pathetic. In fact, for the bottom 80% of the population, as far as I can interpret the statistics, wage growth in the US has been negative adjusting for inflation. China at present is an interesting exception to all the rules. That's because it has a quite different system than most of the rest of the world. A relatively well regulated authoritarian state is by no means necessarily less efficient than a poorly regulated, neoliberal capitalist system.

Of course, it is rather pointless at this point to make a direct comparison between China and the US, since they're at totally different stages of development; but comparing China with other third world countries is probably pretty interesting.

The political direction of the world in the past few years, with the US excepted from consideration, seems to be more than not toward the left. If anyone has any informed comments I would be interested

deagleninja · 2005-02-19 17:55:29

US economy in a freefall? Uh, look again.

We are 'holding steady' by spending 20 years worth of assets in the form of debt. If you think things are looking up, you aren't being realistic. We are headed straight for another Great Depression, but worse.

Grypd · 2005-03-01 18:39:59

Slightly more on track.

Space Race 2, But the west is not even in it and its a three way race.
http://www.spacedaily.com/2005/05022818 … html]India claims its ahead, of china

And with Japan returning to flight status and with ambitious plans for missions to the Moon and eventual manned flight, it seems it could be interesting.

There is a pretty seething pot of national pride and envy spiced with a good load of ambition in the Far east. It is conditions like these that originally created the space race and now I believe China and Japan and India will have there own

Euler · 2005-03-01 21:46:31

I have noticed that a lot of Indians believe that it is patriotic to exaggerate their accomplishments to an absurd degree. This looks like just another case of hyperbole. I think India is still far behind China in most areas of satellite technology.

Grypd · 2005-03-02 05:07:57

I have noticed that a lot of Indians believe that it is patriotic to exaggerate their accomplishments to an absurd degree. This looks like just another case of hyperbole. I think India is still far behind China in most areas of satellite technology.

No I have to disagree with you on this, For more than 30 years there have been a lot of people with very good engineering and science skills coming from the Universities and colleges of India. India has a surplus of thse people and with the culture of low wages its one of the reasons that so many buisnesses are outsourcing their technical and support services to India.

But what really is of interest is that there have been a lot of very good aerospace engineers who have left India and now work for NASA or ESA. India in its engineers has a lot of experience in satelites and through involvement with NASA in space flight.

What India has is a weakness in indigenous Launchers and in the making and advancing of them. In this China with its long march are way way ahead.

I dont think that was boasting in saying India is ahead of China in satelite technology just a frank appraisal. But Indias lead is not insurmountable and China could easily overtake.

Euler · 2005-03-02 13:55:24

No I have to disagree with you on this, For more than 30 years there have been a lot of people with very good engineering and science skills coming from the Universities and colleges of India.

Yes, but for the last 30 years there have been a lot more people with good engineering and science skills coming from the universities in China.

What India has is a weakness in indigenous Launchers and in the making and advancing of them. In this China with its long march are way way ahead.

This is clearly true. However, the same official who was saying that India was a step ahead in satellites also said that India was equal with China in terms of rocket technology. How can you assume that the official is correct in one of his claims when he is clearly wrong in another?

Grypd · 2005-03-02 16:41:38

This is clearly true. However, the same official who was saying that India was a step ahead in satellites also said that India was equal with China in terms of rocket technology. How can you assume that the official is correct in one of his claims when he is clearly wrong in another?

India has learned from is in the creation of its own rockets and missiles. China has though gained by technology transfers from the USSR and then Russia, India from NASA.

Still what China has is an operating system in the Long march where India is still rather basic.

It is in an operating system that India is behind but in theory I think they are if not equal then it is slightly weighted towards India.

publiusr · 2005-03-02 17:23:57

The Indians are designing larger GSLV type vehicles, and China's largest new 504 series will exceed Delta IV according to some.

SpaceNut · 2005-05-02 06:55:33

Well even the Russian news thinks that the JAPAN AND CHINA START SPACE RACE of there own forty years after the USSR and the USA became rivalries in the discovery of space. Or is this just wishful thinking for how the pieces are seen.

Grypd · 2005-05-02 16:24:36

I believe there will be a space race but with India on Japans side and with a Japan-India tendency to share information.

http://www.spacedaily.com/2005/05050210 … html]India to launch two satelites at once

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_ … .stm]Japan & India closer military and commercial ties

Japan and India have much in common in security and trade concerns. This has lead to an increasing military relationship that will only increase as the potential threat that is China increases. Add to this the territorial disputes still current and the political rivalry then it makes sense for a close cooperation to happen. This will likely be transfered to space exploration as well as it will benefit both countries.

oberth · 2005-05-02 16:53:29

Well said, Cobra

If there is a new super power on the horizon it's India.

China will either become a democracy or collapse, maybe both. Totalitarian regimes only look clean and efficient from the outside inside they're rotting away. Corruption is a huge problem in China.

China is the hype of the decade.

MarsDog · 2005-05-03 00:41:55

If there is a new super power on the horizon it's India.
China will either become a democracy or collapse, maybe both. Totalitarian regimes only look clean and efficient from the outside inside they're rotting away. Corruption is a huge problem in China.
China is the hype of the decade.

With great determination and stamina, corruption may be the strength of the Chinese people. Even within a stifling economic system, China is manufacturing for the whole world, including India.

dicktice · 2005-05-03 11:11:43

I question the supposition of China's impending collapse, recollecting over 4,000 years of existence.

oberth · 2005-05-03 11:20:33

"Collapse" in the sense that the China of today, ruled by a corrupt and illegitimate regime will cease to exist.

Martin_Tristar · 2005-05-03 17:44:06

" Collapse " a load of crap !!!!!!!!

The chinese economy has alot more stored productivity in it and haven't completed the remodelling phase of their economy. There is still at least 10-15 years of industrial development and growth ahead for the chinese economy the only issue is energy. But with the new contracts for LPG and Oil contracts it will meet the growth targets and hold the growth over the next few years just under 9% per year.

By 2008 when they have the summer olympics they might have a permanent presence in space with the purchase of docking systems from Russia. That will show to the chinese population that their country is growing and innovating and thus people will work more on improving the country's status in the world.

With the changes in the UN, china will have a larger role in world affairs, the changes in Alliance of South-East Asian Nation (ASEAN) and possible discussions with Tiawan and the large contracts with Australia for natural resources, China will have the power to expand into space and become a World Power in Space.

Admiral_Ritt · 2005-05-04 14:16:57

With a future ratio of 115:100 men to women and coming wave of retirees being suported by that one child policy China has problems. I have'ent mention Big Time Corruption, Bad loans to many Industries that should have folded. And for such a large country they are (fortunately for the US) natural resouces deficient.
I don't doubt that China Will become the No. 2 economy in the world I just think that their GNP will even in mid century be Half of the USA's What many folk don't understand is The Expansion of the Pacific Rim Economies will be of great benefit to all, but the US will the one to Reap the largest benefit of all. The chinese are going to be able to afford a potent military and robust space program. They won't be able to afford DOMINANT in any those endeavours
I recall the same "the USA will besurpased" mantra when the Japanese were on top in the 1980's.

srmeaney · 2005-05-05 22:43:55

And for such a large country they are (fortunately for the US) natural resouces deficient.

There are many nations who would rather sell resources to the Chinese than the USA. The USA has been demanding increased production of Saudi oil for the US economy. They are no longer getting it. Saudia Arabia is Throwing in with the Chinese because the Chinese have been making considerable diplomatic inroads at a time when the USA is burning bridges just to mend.

I recall the same "the USA will besurpased" mantra when the Japanese were on top in the 1980's.

The USA has been surpassed. They did it to themselves when they ran up a monster foreign debt with the likes of Saudi Arabia.

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