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PurduesUSAFguy

Banned

From: Purdue University

Registered: 2004-04-04

Posts: 237

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

I was just reading on spacedaily.com that the founders of Kistler Aerospace are now starting another venture called Lunar Transportation Systems.  ???

I'm a little bit behind on the goings on in the alt space community but does this mean that the Kistlers RLV is officially dead? I knew they had gone bankrupt but last I heard they were trying to restructure and press forward.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Yep, "restructure" with $400 Million United States Dollars ($400,000,000) in debt owed to creditors. And a rocket thats risky, relies on very high reliability to turn a profit, and is tailored to MEO medium altitude with useless moderatly inclined orbits out of a "space port" in Austrailia. And a rocket that is only half finished.

The abandonment of the RLV as a requirement of this concept by the new venture could be signifigant, that the only way that the Lunar Transportation Systems scheme makes sense is with a RLV. Since several details of this scheme are obviously sketchy, such as fuel boiloff and the big question mark of scaling up with Delta-IV HLV, it seems to me that either:

A: The LTS people have abandoned the notion of getting the KH-1 to fly, are trying to get one of the many 6-7 figure NASA design study handouts, but are incompetant and don't have any real skill in spacecraft design.

B: The LTS people are trying to sucker NASA into a plan that only makes sense with the Kistler rocket, which would then be bailed out, since the LTS plan makes no sense versus uprating Delta-IV. A ploy to put Kistler back in business.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

SpaceNut

Administrator

From: New Hampshire

Registered: 2004-07-22

Posts: 29,433

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

You are referring to the Lunar Transportation Systems- A New Private Commercial Space Venture
I would say that it would mean that they are continuing on IMO.

Ad Astra

Member

Registered: 2003-02-02

Posts: 584

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

I had thought that Kistler still had some contracts with NASA, such as one for supplying re-entry data (under the old Space Launch Initiative) and one for bringing payload to the ISS.

Kistler is involved with tSpace, and one doesn't have to look very far to see the K-1's influence in the design of the tSpace re-entry vehicle.

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Who needs Michael Griffin when you can have Peter Griffin?  Catch "Family Guy" Sunday nights on FOX.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

It wouldn't surprise me if NASA gave Kistler some contracts to study ISS missions or build working reentry vehicles, but actual contracts to do it? No way.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

PurduesUSAFguy

Banned

From: Purdue University

Registered: 2004-04-04

Posts: 237

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

It seems like the age of shooting for a RLV are over, as NASA is once again focusing on(and rightly so) expendables, and the only AltSpace start up that has gotten any traction is with expendables (or nearly so). Space X seems like it could become a player at least and Bigelow while not in the launch bussiness seems like it could survive since it has funding.

On the other hand I'm not sure where Rutan and company are headed with their air launched system or if that's even what they will stick to as he pushes on for higher then sub orbit.

GCNRevenger

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From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Unless Elon Musk at SpaceX can sell Falcon-V flights for an extremely low price and dial up the payload capacity beyond estimated, then the LTS people would have to employ an RLV like the Kistler's KH-1 for their system to make sense. That is the only way that the inherint disadvantages to the "itty-bitty-tanker" aproach could concieveably be overcome.

What they are up against is Boeing: "Give us a healthy sum, the USAF chip in maybe, and we can modify the rockets we already have flying to launch a CEV with only two engines, or put 40MT on orbit for around $200M each. Up to six men the Moon for only a billion dollars of rocket."

Burt sure isn't going to use any air-launch nonsense for orbital flight.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

Ad Astra

Member

Registered: 2003-02-02

Posts: 584

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Air launch will not make any sense until we can fly the mothership at Mach 6 or higher and then have a reliable stage separation.

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Who needs Michael Griffin when you can have Peter Griffin?  Catch "Family Guy" Sunday nights on FOX.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Mach 5 or 6 at high altitudes, preferably 80,000-100,000ft.

AND we develop slush hydrogen fuel technology.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

Grypd

Member

From: Scotland, Europe

Registered: 2004-06-07

Posts: 1,879

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

And it can be quickly repeatable and the heatshield on the orbiter section does not need incredibly delicate and long inspections.

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Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Large cryogenic engines are now in low-rate development, like the COBRA or IPH engines, which should be reliable enough to fire 100 times between major servicing. That would be more then enough reliability for a spaceplane.

A metal heat shield would be possible for a lift-body shaped vehicle, no more glass tiles.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

Grypd

Member

From: Scotland, Europe

Registered: 2004-06-07

Posts: 1,879

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Spaceplanes always give me thoughts of the Chicken and Egg scenario. They will never carry a large amount of cargo but are the perfect way to take people up reasonably cheaply. But they wont be developed as there is no reason to have large amounts of people go to space. And we wont develop space to the point where large amounts of people are needed when  its so expensive to send them there.

One question a metalic heatshield what sort would be best and what kind of endurance can it give us. ie how long will it last?

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Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Its not really a chicken/egg problem, just a question of when is the right time to start what phase. Heavy lift rockets for cargo and smaller expendable manned rockets can lay the foundation without aid, and only then should a spaceplane be built. However, timing is everything...

The specifics of the heat shield depend strongly on the particulars of the vehicle. Worst case, panels the size of Pizza boxes of metal foam with tungsten/titanium/nickel on the exposed face would be bolted on, replaced every 5-10 flights. Best case, the whole underside would be of Titanium or metal alloy/sandwich and would last the life of the vehicle.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

Grypd

Member

From: Scotland, Europe

Registered: 2004-06-07

Posts: 1,879

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Thankyou GCN.

But for us to require that amount of investment and cost we need to have a real reason. At the moment the USA's plan to return to the Moon and go further hardly calls for the creation or need for such development of cheaper to space launch hardware. And as much as we dont want them we will still need a heavy lifter to get cargo to space.

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Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

"And as much as we dont want them we will still need a heavy lifter to get cargo to space."

No, no we won't. Heavy lift rockets will be used sparingly, only for launching large and generally special items. Virtually everything else will be hauled up by a true RLV. All bulk cargo would obviously be launched by RLV with their far superior cost per pound.

I am talking an RLV with a payload capacity similar to the Proton or large Atlas-V rocket, and to reach below the $500/lbs line. No HLLV could match it.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

Ad Astra

Member

Registered: 2003-02-02

Posts: 584

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

I found the answer to the Kistler contract issue in the 2005 Aviation Week sourcebook.  Kistler had a contract from NASA for flight data into spring 2004.  NASA was then forced to drop it after SpaceX charged that NASA didn't open te contract to competition.  The Falcon I is a similar vehicle to the K1, except that the upper stage doesn't come back.  SpaceX would have been a viable competitor, but NASA completely ignored it until SpaceX whipped out its lawyers.

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Who needs Michael Griffin when you can have Peter Griffin?  Catch "Family Guy" Sunday nights on FOX.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Of course, Kistler is full of ex-NASA engineers, and NASA has centerd its entire way of thinking for the last thirty years on only one thing: keep engineers employed.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

SpaceNut

Administrator

From: New Hampshire

Registered: 2004-07-22

Posts: 29,433

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Kistler’s Reorganization Plan Hinges on Investors, NASA Work (Source: Space News)
A U.S. bankruptcy court is expected to decide Mar. 29 whether reusable-rocket company Kistler Aerospace Corp.’s proposed debt-restructuring plan meets the approval of the court and of Kistler’s debtors. Kirkland, Wash.-based Kistler filed its reorganization proposal Feb. 24 in an effort to persuade its creditors that the company will be more valuable to them as a going concern than it would be if liquidated.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Do we have any update about this story?

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

Soyuz

Member

Registered: 2004-06-22

Posts: 19

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

From http://www.hobbyspace.com/Links/RLVNews.html]Hobbyspace RLV news.

2:50pm: More on Kistler in the latest Aviation Week. As reported earlier, Kistler Aerospace will emerge from bankruptcy proceedings. The company has a number of goals and challenges ahead of it according to AvWeeK:

-Currently the company has $15M in cash but needs to to raise $450M-$500M to finish and fly the fully reusable two-stage K-1. (The K-1 is reported to be about 75% completed.)
-If Kistler finds the money soon enough, the K-1 will fly by the the first quarter of 2007.
-Demo launches will take place from Kistler's Woomera facilities but the company is also looking at Cape Canaveral and a couple of sites in Nevada as alternatives.
-The K-1 needs a one mile (1.6Km) diameter area for its recovery operations.
-The K-1 can deliver 7000lbs (3180Kg) to the ISS and return 2000lbs (910Kg) to the ground.
-The company will have to compete with other companies for the ISS business since a previous sole-source award from NASA was successfully challenged by SpaceX.
-The company expects ISS transport to provide around 25% of its business. Other markets include small comsat launches to GEO (using the Active Dispenser expendable module), military, science, and CEV payloads.
-They expect to achieve 9 day turnaround and to be a capable of launching with 3 days warning.

Ad Astra

Member

Registered: 2003-02-02

Posts: 584

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Those turnaround requirements sound mighty challenging.  My guess is that they'll never have to face that challenge; nobody will be willing to pump $500 million into these guys.

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Who needs Michael Griffin when you can have Peter Griffin?  Catch "Family Guy" Sunday nights on FOX.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

Wanna bet AdAstra? NASA has already tried to bail them out before to a nine-digit tune if memory serves, and they were ready to sign an exclusive contract for Kistler to run supplies to the ISS. I think it is also rumored that Kistler is run by ex-NASA people... who generally stick together.

Considering that NASA has no options for space freight other then a cargo version of CEV, which will run into the $150M range for every flight, I think it not unreasonable that NASA would try to pour another half a billion into them to make it fly. NASA is just stupid, loyal, or desperate enough to do it.

What really gets me is Kistler seems to be blythly skipping along tward' destruction since there is probobly no way they can absorb the cost of the loss of a vehicle any time soon, which makes their business plan much, much riskier.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

Ad Astra

Member

Registered: 2003-02-02

Posts: 584

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

I think it is also rumored that Kistler is run by ex-NASA people... who generally stick together.

I believe that one of Kistler's old managers was the late George Mueller, who was an associate administrator for Apollo.  So there are clearly NASA ties to Kistler.  But there also exists a point where NASA will pull the plug on pie-in-the-sky projects.  After all, NASA aborted the X-33 and X-34, especially after it became clear that X-33 would never lead to realistic shuttle replacement.

NASA really does want to use Kistler for Alternative Access to Station (if that term is still in use.)  But it does have other options if only it is ready to allow for competition.  I'm sure Elon Musk would offer his Falcon V as a contender.  Gary Hudson of HMX (an RLV advocate whose ideas sometimes bordered on fantasy) proposed a reusable vehicle (not unlike Kistler stage 2) launched by a surplus Titan II.  A solution to the ISS downmass problem is in sight; it's just up to NASA to stop mismanaging this effort.

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Who needs Michael Griffin when you can have Peter Griffin?  Catch "Family Guy" Sunday nights on FOX.

srmeaney

Member

From: 18 tiwi gdns rd, TIWI NT 0810

Registered: 2005-03-18

Posts: 976

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

About the "Woomera" Lauch Centre in Australia, It is definatly too far off the Equator to be anything other than a launch centre for small satellites. It was never meant to be anything other than a Launch vehicle testing Facility anyway. The Territory Government is now 'considering the possibility' of a new facility near Tennant Creek which will put a space Launch facility within 20 degrees of the Equator (the same distance as Cape Canaveral).

Tennant Creek itself will have to grow into something of an Industry Support town. Considering the pipeline of Natural Gas that runs through it will probably be redirected to the Manufacture of rocket fuel for Commercial Launchers rather than feed the new Chinese Economic Boom, I would say private sector Innovators like Kistler may not be dead after all.

SpaceNut

Administrator

From: New Hampshire

Registered: 2004-07-22

Posts: 29,433

Re: Is Kistler Dead?

I believe that is south of the equator while nasa is North of it which would mean for ISS flights a penalty. The Iss is also somewhere around 50 north of the equator as well. So far that a flight to get to the ISS would take a lot more fuel than the kistler was designed for. Which in turn would lessen the effective payload of delivery.