The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

Mark S · 2002-09-27 14:03:26

I'm impatiently waiting for SOMEBODY to win the x-prize, which might open the floodgates for space tourism. From a technical standpoint, this shouldn't be too difficult--the x-prize mission is essentially a repeat of the X-15 missions but with two passengers. The X-Prize foundation expects a winner by the end of 2003, although I think 2005 is more realistic based on estimates by some of the teams in the competition.

If I were a betting man, my money would be on Burt Rutan to win the prize. His company, Scaled Composites, is a fiscally-sound and experienced builder of radical aircraft designs. If Rutan doesn't win, the Cosmopolis team will probably accomplish the goal. Their Buran-inspired spaceplane looks really sharp, and it's one of the most visible contenders right now.

Phobos · 2002-09-30 21:15:47

I'm betting on the Starchaser team. If all goes well they're planning their first manned flight in early 2003 and it probably won't be to long after that that they get their X-prize qualified vehicle ready. That Canadian team might beat them to it though. I'm guessing one of those two teams will be the winnder.

Mark S · 2002-09-30 21:25:48

The DaVinci team, which plans on launching their rocket from a high-altitude balloon, will probably be the first to attempt a launch, granted they run into no major glitches. However, their space launch system does not lend itself to a commercially-successful enterprise like an air-launched spaceplane would. The DaVinci spacecraft would be at the mercy of the winds during its balloon ascent, and the ballute landing system isn't "elegant" like a winged runway landing.

Phobos · 2002-10-01 20:34:38

I have to say I'm not a big fan of the Da Vinci concept either. Lifting a rocket high into the atmosphere with a balloon just isn't aesthetically pleasing to me. But I guess if it works it works. Sometimes the best solutions are the ugliest ones. I never thought about the possibility of strong winds carrying the balloon off on strange trajectories. It seems to add a highly unpredictable element. I visited their website about a month ago and they were thinking of using their rockets to get people to extreme altitudes so they can skyjump. I'd love to try sky diving from 50,000 feet.

Mark S · 2002-10-01 21:48:38

Sometimes the best solutions aren't elegant...

I'm thinking that the X-Prize may be won by a team that chooses a "rocket goes up, recovers by parachute" flight profile, like DaVinci or Starchaser. However, the real money, from space tourism, will be made by guys like XCor and Burt Rutan who design spaceplanes and TSTO spacecraft. The easiest way to make a spacecraft that operates like an airliner is to make an airliner that flies in space. That's the beauty of a spaceplane.

Josh Cryer · 2002-10-01 21:52:01

Hmm, I hope the guys over there with the Armadillo Rocket will be the first. They actually flew a manned test flight for 6 seconds the other day.

I really just like them because their lead guy is John Carmack, the creator of Doom and Quake (also the Open Source / Free Software advocate). Really fun stuff. I just wish there were more resuable designs out there, they aren't many, other than the airplane hybrids.

Phobos · 2002-10-02 18:20:16

I never considered Armadillo aerospace a serious contender for the trophy until now. Romero seems optimistic that he can pull off the flight by 2004 but I'd still bet that either Starchaser or Da Vinci win the Xprize in 2003. I think Romero needs to speed up the schedule a bit if he's serious about winning.

However, the real money, from space tourism, will be made by guys like XCor and Burt Rutan who design spaceplanes and TSTO spacecraft. The easiest way to make a spacecraft that operates like an airliner is to make an airliner that flies in space. That's the beauty of a spaceplane.

I think XCor is wise to go the route their going with non-toxic fuels. That Armadillo stunt used peroxide based fuels, which are very toxic and corrosive. There were plenty of German jet pilots in WWII who could attest to that fact. Nothing will kill a venture faster than environmental problems, which can become expensive and thus make you uncompetitive.

Mark S · 2002-10-03 09:14:02

There really isn't a problem with peroxide fuels--the British developed successful peroxide engines for rockets and rocketplanes thrughout the fifties and sixties. As long as the peroxide is pure and handled with care it should not dissociate. The Germans ran into trouble because of their impure peroxide and their use of toxic hydrazine as a fuel. Carmack and co. plan on using kerosene instead.

Armadillo's big advantage over the other teams is funding. John Carmack is loaded, and he shouldn't experience the funding problems like Rotary Rocket experienced. If Starchaser and DaVinci run into unexpected problems, Armadillo will be a contender.

Adrian · 2002-10-03 09:45:38

I'm also a fan of Armadillo; Starchaser and similar competitors don't seem like they're really innovating to me, they're just building the same old rockets. Plus, I can't say I've seen any real advances in the past few years - I could be wrong, but as far as I know there have been no real breakthroughs.

As Mark said, Armadillo have a real advantage in that they aren't going to experience any kind of funding problems any time soon, and I'm very impressed with their little hopping rocket - I gather that their real problem was with control of the jets and it seems they have that sorted out. It's nice to see someone else doing the old Delta Clipper vertical landing model.

nirgal · 2002-10-03 11:47:21

My top 5 teams:

1. Canadian Arrow
2. Starchaser
3. Cosmopolis XXI Suborbital Corporation
4. Armadillo Aerospace
5. Da Vinci Project

XCOR is also one of my favourite teams although it's very unlikely that they will be ready in time to beat their competitors.

Check out the videos on armadilloaerospace.com, they're really fun to watch.

Phobos · 2002-10-03 19:25:20

Once someone wins the sub-orbital X-prize I wonder if they plan to offer one for the first private manned orbital flight. XCor might be in the running for such a prize if they offer it. And if Highlift Systems can get their elevator built in 15 years (lets be optimistic! ) I wonder if that would qualify as an entrant. Anyways, is the Canadian Arrow the one using the modified V-2 engines?

PaganToris · 2002-10-04 11:16:25

Well phobos it seems that u are incorrect al though i am at school right now it is 10:34am but i am board so i thought i just might take a look at te forum

Josh Cryer · 2002-10-04 12:41:40

Hmm, once Doom 3 comes out, I bet John Carmack will put all his effort in completing The Armadillo. So I really am seeing him pull this off.

I didn't realize the X-Prize was $10 million, though. I thought it was only like $1 million! I'm surprised no one has completed the task yet. $10 is more than enough to cover the costs, in my oh so humble opinion.

Mark S · 2002-10-04 14:05:08

$10 million is a lot of money, but the startup costs for building a contender are generally estimated as being higher than that amount. That's why most of the teams have tried selling passenger seats on their spacecraft. And a lot of the teams are saying things like "We'll be able to build the spacecraft as soon as we get the money." The problem is that nobody wants to invest in a privately-funded, small space startup. The best hope for the X-prize are teams that are lead by a wealthy benefactor, like Armadillo and Scaled Composites.

Mark S · 2002-10-09 22:29:30

I'm starting to doubt that Starchaser will win the X-Prize, despite their apparently-strong level of expertise and funding. The company has done a major redesign of their X-Prize rocket. It's now a two and a half-stage bird.

If I were to make a wager, my money would be on DaVinci first, Scaled Composites second, and Armadillo third.

Mark S · 2002-10-24 05:39:26

Burt Rutan and Scaled Composites may have started flight testing the mothership for their x-prize contender. Burt's been very secret about his project and it's hard to tell what the status is, but I would not count him out.

Of course, the x-prize must be won before the end of 2004, because the x-prize foundation raised the $10 million by betting an insurance company that the prize would be won before then. Let's hope SOMEBODY wins this long-overdue award.

Phobos · 2002-10-24 22:48:44

It looks like your previous predictions about Scaled Composites might be right on. I never even heard of them until now, and I thought I was up on all of the most promising contenders for the X-prize. I think someone will pull it off in time though, I'd be willing to sucker an insurance company out of 10 million dollars on it.

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#1 2002-09-27 14:03:26

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#2 2002-09-30 21:15:47

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#3 2002-09-30 21:25:48

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#4 2002-10-01 20:34:38

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#5 2002-10-01 21:48:38

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#6 2002-10-01 21:52:01

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#7 2002-10-02 18:20:16

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#8 2002-10-03 09:14:02

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#9 2002-10-03 09:45:38

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#10 2002-10-03 11:47:21

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#11 2002-10-03 19:25:20

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#12 2002-10-04 11:16:25

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#13 2002-10-04 12:41:40

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#14 2002-10-04 14:05:08

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#15 2002-10-09 22:29:30

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#16 2002-10-24 05:39:26

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

#17 2002-10-24 22:48:44

Re: The X-Prize - Any wagers as to who will win?

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