Return to flight slipping

GCNRevenger · 2004-10-28 19:59:00

Its no secret, Weldalloy as its called, is openly available.

SpaceNut · 2004-10-29 06:24:24

NASA mulls early retirement for space shuttle
Preliminary studies look at off-loading station building to rockets
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6357772/

Even as NASA gears up for the space shuttle's return to flight next year, officials at the space agency are quietly studying the possibility of cutting back its number of missions and retiring the spacecraft years ahead of schedule, MSNBC.com has learned.
On condition of anonymity, one current and one former high-level NASA employee, each with direct knowledge of the studies, provided MSNBC with details of the discussions. In addition, two former astronauts and a senior space policy expert, also requesting anonymity, said they had been told of the shuttle discussion by current NASA officials.
What some officials at NASA are studying, sources told MSNBC.com, is whether the current mission manifest could be cut back. The cold calculus of space budgets state that for every four or five shuttle missions eliminated, the shuttle program can be terminated a year earlier. And at current operating costs, that frees up about $5 billion a year for future development.

Even talks of the planetary plan for flight reduction and use of russian rockets where possible.

BWhite · 2004-10-29 07:40:21

NASA mulls early retirement for space shuttle
Preliminary studies look at off-loading station building to rockets
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6357772/]http:/ … d/6357772/
Even as NASA gears up for the space shuttle's return to flight next year, officials at the space agency are quietly studying the possibility of cutting back its number of missions and retiring the spacecraft years ahead of schedule, MSNBC.com has learned.
On condition of anonymity, one current and one former high-level NASA employee, each with direct knowledge of the studies, provided MSNBC with details of the discussions. In addition, two former astronauts and a senior space policy expert, also requesting anonymity, said they had been told of the shuttle discussion by current NASA officials.
What some officials at NASA are studying, sources told MSNBC.com, is whether the current mission manifest could be cut back. The cold calculus of space budgets state that for every four or five shuttle missions eliminated, the shuttle program can be terminated a year earlier. And at current operating costs, that frees up about $5 billion a year for future development.
Even talks of the planetary plan for flight reduction and use of russian rockets where possible.

I got me my own one eyed hobo. Read MY posts here at NewMars from February & March of 2004.

SpaceNut · 2004-10-29 10:27:16

But your one eyed hobo was in a crowd that also has had similar thoughts even before the disastrous re-entry break up some as long as a couple of decades.

GCNRevenger · 2004-10-29 12:14:45

As nice as it would be for NASA to limit ISS flights to Core Complete and lets Proton/Ariane/Delta send up everything else, I doubt that it will happen. The fact of the matter is that the ISS is ageing, and will fall apart eventually, so it must be finished as soon as possible to maximize its useful lifetime. That means not waiting for any alternate launch methods if they will delay major componet launch for years.

The Russian boast that only two payloads can't fly on Proton is hogwash too because the Russians have no means of last-mile guidence any more then we or the Europeans do except on Shuttle, even if they could find the extra mass for the reinforced launch cradle for side-mount payloads.

I can see NASA coming to terms that Shuttle cannot complete ISS as currently designed and make the 2010 deadline... what will happen is that less important pieces of the ISS will be deleted in order to make it possible to have the last orbiter wheels-down by Dec 31st 2010. It would be great to make up for some Shuttle flights by using EELVs, Ariane, or Proton but I doubt the lack of final guidence and mounting modifications (possibly requiring launcher upgrade) can be solved before it is too late to squeeze useful work out of the ISS.

SpaceNut · 2004-10-29 12:40:05

And thats where the Dart program comes in if it ever does launch. There has been several delays in the past few days.

DART launch postponed again
The launch of a NASA technology demonstration satellite has been postponed until at least the middle of next week because of contamination found in its launch vehicle. The Demonstration of Autonomous Rendezvous Technology (DART) spacecraft was scheduled to launch late Thursday morning on a Pegasus XL vehicle off the coast from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. However, during launch vehicle closeout processing Wednesday night technicians discovered flakes of aluminum foil from the Pegasus payload fairing. The launch is now scheduled for no earlier than November 4 to give crews enough time to determine and fix the problem. The launch was scheduled for Tuesday but delayed by a combination of inclement weather and technical glitches. DART is scheduled to perform an automated approach and rendezvous with an existing small satellite, MUBLCOM, demonstrating technology that could be used on future missions.

press release
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin....&EDATE=

GCNRevenger · 2004-10-29 13:18:10

I don't think that DART will produce a tug vehicle in time to launch ISS componets on EELV+/Ariane-V before ISS runs out of useful life... The station, if it is to be useful to anyone and not just a Mir-II, needs to be finished quickly. I have doubts that the current ISS hardware will be safe much beyond 2015 or so.

SpaceNut · 2004-10-30 05:49:52

More on the return to flight NASA Sets New Space Shuttle Launch Planning Window http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2004/oc … indow.html

After an extensive review, NASA is planning its Return to Flight Space Shuttle mission, designated STS-114, for a launch window that opens in May 2005.
NASA's Space Flight Leadership Council met today to consider a recommendation from the Space Shuttle Program to revise the Return to Flight target launch window to May 2005. The council endorsed the recommendation the May window, which opens from May 12 to June 3, 2005, is achievable

From Florida today with some of the previous Msnbc info.
NASA looks at less flights

Plans encourage full schedule; shuttle launch goal still mid-May
http://www.floridatoday.com/!NEWSROOM/s … HUTTLE.htm

Commodore · 2004-10-30 10:00:53

How hard is it really to throw together a second stage guidance package with a couple of truss segments and some solar panels in it? Compared to half billion dollar shuttle mission?

GCNRevenger · 2004-10-30 10:07:44

To do this in under about 20 months, make it safe enough to guide a multi-ton piece of metal straight at the manned ISS with accuracy, and keep the added weight from making it too heavy without big time launcher modifications... hard. Perhaps impossible in a short time frame. Those truss segments have to be able to support the mass of the payload during launch, which is ~4-5G, in addition to their own weight. You can't use the flimsy gossamer space-rated scaffold style trusses so its going to be heavy.

A shuttle flight goes for around one billion, not half a billion, perhaps as much as $1.5Bn if you count NASA management and mission prep.

Euler · 2004-10-30 11:47:29

Can ISS trusses even fit in the payload fairing of a Delta IV large? They are pretty big.

GCNRevenger · 2004-10-30 11:52:25

Boeing doesn't seem to think that a 6.5m payload faring would be hard to make, which would about equal the volume of the Shuttle bay if it were stretched a little.

One of the reasons that the Shuttle Orbiter is so heavy is that it has the extra support structure "built in," and it is extra strong to handle the high lateral loads during launch plus the stresses of high hypersonic reentry.

SpaceNut · 2004-11-11 08:13:29

Nasa continues to chip away at the recommendation list of the CIAB. NASA Begins Rehearsals For Return To Flight Simulating a first-of-its-kind somersault that will expose the underside of the Space Shuttle for tile inspection.
Lots more to be done to ensure a safe use of the Vehicles for continued building of the ISS.

SpaceNut · 2004-11-11 08:29:36

While not a show stopper it the launch pad is finally showing its age.
NASA's two massive crawler-transporters cracks found last year

SpaceNut · 2004-11-12 11:48:22

Top managers of NASA's human and robotic programs are coming together to share their expertise as the agency prepares to return a safer Space Shuttle to flight on Friday, Nov. 19.

NASA Managers Available To Discuss Shuttle Return To Flight

SpaceNut · 2004-11-14 21:54:12

With what Nasa can use for day time launch windows how do they ever expect to finish the ISS. Not to mention that they must have a backup shuttle in the wings ready to go.

NASA has calculated that only four remaining windows are available in 2005 when those and other conditions for launch line up:
May 14-June 3.

July 13-Aug. 1.
A window of at least four days beginning Sept. 9.

A window of at least one day beginning Nov. 7.

NASA hopes to launch seven shuttle flights by October 2006, including as many as three next year.

Edit:
Reference from early this month on ISS near term build timelines. You can do the comparison to see how many and when Nasa wishes to use a shuttle.

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2004/11 … ule.sm.jpg

http://images.spaceref.com/news/2004/11 … hedule.pdf

GCNRevenger · 2004-11-14 21:58:19

Just had to cater to the Soyuz and Proton didn't we...

NASA may simply bend some of the RTF rules, like not flying at night, with infra-red cameras and such.

SpaceNut · 2004-11-14 22:04:22

A couple more articles that appeared in the orlandosentinel

Fears rise over cuts, shuttle schedule
Interviews, documents show managers' concern
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news....s-space

Nearly two years after the Columbia disaster, some NASA managers fear that cost-cutting measures and pressure to resume shuttle launches are jeopardizing critical safety reforms.
Confidential interviews with shuttle officials, as well as internal NASA documents and e-mails obtained by the Orlando Sentinel, portray a program rushing to fly again despite serious money problems and growing concerns about meeting an ambitious schedule.
To help balance its books, for example, NASA is considering hundreds of layoffs at Kennedy Space Center even as workers prepare for shuttle Discovery's planned liftoff in May. Internal schedules show that 61/2 months of processing work on Discovery remains, but the orbiter must be rolled out of its hangar in 41/2 months to make the May launch window.
NASA is studying a variety of options at KSC, although there is no guarantee any will be adopted. They include:
Beginning the layoffs in February of 276 contract shuttle workers and increasing overtime 3 percent to 45,000 hours. The move would reduce NASA's ability to meet the current launch schedule by shrinking the work force to levels comparable to those before the Columbia accident. Savings: $16.6 million in 2005.
Starting a targeted layoff of 100 workers Dec. 1 "aimed at lower performers and critical skills that are least detrimental to processing." The briefing notes that "any layoff implementation would likely damage employee morale" and hasten the departure of skilled workers. Savings: $8.6 million in 2005.
Carrying out an aggressive attrition plan in January that would fill only one of every four job openings instead of three of four. A drawback is that vacancies created by attrition likely would result in the loss of critical skills. Savings: $4.6 million in 2005.
Diverting virtually all workers who are doing a maintenance overhaul of shuttle Endeavour to preparing Discovery and Atlantis for launch. The move would save about 17,000 planned hours of overtime but would delay Endeavour's return by a year and cause future schedule delays. Savings: $1.5 million in 2005.

BWhite · 2004-11-15 08:37:14

Laying off workers is where the shuttle budget savings will come from. Perhaps this is how they will kill shuttle after all.

SpaceNut · 2004-11-15 09:09:31

But this is also where the argument on skill retention comes in, civil servants and of unions.

I had stated that as a cost saving measure early in the discussion of how to create more funds for the CEV. For a period of approximately going on 2 years we could have saved anywhere from as low as 3billion to as high as 8billion in my best guestimates.

SpaceNut · 2004-11-23 11:14:45

Like the dim of a distant drum the return to flight progresses forward for its eventual launch next year.
Boosters ready for assembly

While others are looking to the budget not creating job loss for those on the shuttle team.
NASA will phase out 100 shuttle jobs at KSC thou Cuts will not compromise flight safety, officials say.

NASA is preparing to eliminate 100 contractor processing jobs at Kennedy Space Center starting Dec. 1 under a 2005 operating plan approved by the shuttle program's manager last week.
Most of the job cuts will be done through attrition, retirement and leaving vacant positions unfilled. Few, if any, current employees are expected to be laid off.

The draw back to this is that the Budget ax falls on lunar probe

Congress cut all but $10 million from the planned Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter mission, which was to map the moon and attempt to find water ice that could be critical to human missions. Fearing NASA would cut science programs to fund human exploration, the Congress demanded 25 percent of the instruments on the lunar satellite to be aimed at pure science, not future operations.

Mark S · 2004-11-23 17:09:26

I too am afraid that NASA will cut corners when it comes to shuttle safety. The twenty-some flights required to complete the ISS by 2010 is a very tough hurdle and I feel that NASA will drive itself towards another accident if it pushes too hard.

My proposal is that ISS should be cut back to the point where it could be finished by 2010 if NASA adopts a four-flights-per-year rate from 2006-2010. If NASA can safely launch five flights per year instead of four, it can retire the great white albatross early and save some money that can be put towards CEV. If NASA sticks with four flights a year, they will not have to cut as many corners and have a better chance of safely ending the program on schedule.

The secret to happiness and success is setting low standards...

SpaceNut · 2004-11-24 05:33:30

Well here is one of those enhancements for the point of monitoring hits on launch by possible foam debri. Invocon Inc. developed the sensors that will detect any debris strikes along the wings during future shuttle missions and transmit the data to both the astronauts aboard and Mission Control at Houston's Johnson Space Center.

Company builds sensors necessary for shuttle's return-to-flight

Without the sensors a small company is putting together for NASA's shuttle fleet, the orbiters wouldn't be able to return to space, a NASA spokesman said Tuesday as he toured the company's lab just north of Houston.

O'Keefe sees tough cuts to keep NASA on budget

Returning the grounded shuttle fleet to space already has caused an estimated $760 million in cost overruns, and close to $300 million in extra funds will be needed this year to initiate a repair mission to save the Hubble Space Telescope. In addition, lawmakers have designated dozens of pet science projects in their home districts that NASA will be obligated to pay for under an "earmarking" provision that will cost the agency another $400 million.
O'Keefe dismissed a published report that 100 shuttle program jobs will soon be cut at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and possibly others at the Johnson Space Center in Houston.

O'Keefe will be reporting back to Congress in two months, he must deliver a clearly layed out set of plans for the agency's priorities in this order:

•Returning shuttles to flight.
•Completing construction of the international space station.
•Building the next generation of spacecraft.
•Developing a nuclear power generation system to fuel new spaceships and provide electricity wherever human and robotic explorers travel.

SpaceNut · 2004-11-30 05:51:26

NASA Announces Space Shuttle Return-To-Flight Briefing

The latest version of "NASA's Implementation Plan for Space Shuttle Return to Flight and Beyond" will be released publicly Monday morning Dec. 6, and the agency has scheduled a news conference in the afternoon.
The news briefing will be live on NASA TV at 2 p.m. EST from NASA's Johnson Space Center, Houston. The plan and the media briefing will outline the agency's progress in safely returning Space Shuttles to flight. The briefing also will focus on progress in Shuttle processing, testing and training. Briefing participants:
– Bill Parsons, Space Shuttle program manager
– Wayne Hale, deputy Space Shuttle program manager
– John Casper, manager, Space Shuttle Management Integration and Planning

GraemeSkinner · 2004-11-30 06:28:21

Laying off workers is where the shuttle budget savings will come from. Perhaps this is how they will kill shuttle after all.

One of the problems of laying off workers for budget reason is not the obvious one that people loose their jobs, but half the time the wrong people get booted out, so the useful workforce is hit twice and less work is produced than you'd expect. The normal outcome of costcutting by reducing a workforce is a top heavy workforce which is never an effective organisation.

Graeme

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#76 2004-10-28 19:59:00

Re: Return to flight slipping

#77 2004-10-29 06:24:24

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