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My Martian exploration and settlement plan is based, in part, on a social science proposition named "the rule of 150." Social scientists have found that a group of 150 people is as large as a group can get and still maintain its internal unity. Beyond that number, social factions develop and this can lead to conflict and, eventually, secession.
I recently revised my design for a Martian settlement named The City of New Euthenia. That design contains the following paragraph, including a hyperlink to a page about the rule of 150.
"The number of people in each neighborhood in New Euthenia will fluctuate between about 75 and 150. While the total population of New Euthenia is gradually growing toward a maximum of about 22,200, the people of New Euthenia will be building a daughter settlement nearby. As the daughter settlement nears final completion, about half of the people in each neighborhood in New Euthenia will begin moving to a neighborhood in the daughter settlement. This settlement pattern will ensure that neighborhoods contain no more than 150 people. This settlement pattern is based on 'the rule of 150,' which holds that the maximum size of a human social network is 150 people."
My revised page about New Euthenia is located at http://www.geocities.com/scott956282743 … thenia.htm
My plan provides that New Euthenia will have 148 neighborhoods. If each neighborhood selects 1 member of the New Euthenia City Council then the Council will have 148 members. In order to promote cooperation and good will among the members of the Council, they might make a habit of having lunch together once each month. Each neighborhood might take a turn at hosting these luncheons.
"Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more that a statement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern." Joseph A. Schumpeter; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942
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So, you're going to restrict people to their neighborhoods, then, when everybody finally finds their niche in the warren, bust the neighborhoods up and shuffle half the people off to new warrens in a new location.
If you don't intend to allow social contacts to survive the birth of a daughter settlement, what's the sense of applying the Rule of 150?
The Rule of 150 applies most accurately to social contacts, not architecture or urban planning.
"We go big, or we don't go." - GCNRevenger
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Mr. Edwards:
You wrote, "So you're going to restrict people to their neighborhoods..." No, I am not proposing that. The people of New Euthenia would be able to use the streets that run between neighborhoods, and they would be able to use municipal facilities, such as the Central Park, the natatorium (indoor swimming pool), and the concert hall, etc.
One neighborhood might have defined and strictly enforced "Visiting Hours," while another neighborhood might allow anyone to enter the neighborhood at any time. The City Council might adopt a curfew ordinance regarding minors (people under 18) and perhaps an ordinance which provides that no one under the age of 4 may use the city streets and other municipal facilities unless accompanied by someone older than 10.
You asked, "If you don't intend to allow social contacts to survive the birth of a daughter settlement, what's the sense of applying the Rule of 150?
I anticipate that social contacts will "survive the birth of a daughter settlement." But that will not change the fact that in New Euthenia social control will be exercised primarily on an informal basis by the members of a neighborhood and that, consequently, New Euthenia will have a small police force, low taxes, and a few jail cells that are empty most of the time. Or would you prefer a police state?
Informal social control (the rule of 150) or formal social control (the police); social control will be exercised one way or another.
"Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more that a statement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern." Joseph A. Schumpeter; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942
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There is precedent for the idea of restricting settlement population in order to reduce the need for a police force. The United States abounds with small towns whose residents consider their town "too small for a police force," and that's just one example. Apparently, small community size is one factor in reducing crime. (Crime is arguably a reflection of social stability.) There needs to be some degree of isolation from larger communities, though - either physical or cultural - or the social advantages of a small community can be lost.
The kind of physical isolation required isn't very much. You just need enough that people know where they don't live. Requiring a road trip of more than a few minutes between neighborhoods would do.
I should point out, though, that there is no economic advantage to small community size. Also, 150 is neither the largest population with a low crime rate nor the largest stable unincorporated community.
But it's not the lowest, either. It's acceptable as an arbitrary population for the type of neighborhood you propose.
I'm still concerned with the interaction between neighborhoods, as well as the idea of planned creation of daughter settlements. Keeping inter-warren relations open enough that they can all be considered to be one settlement could prove problematic. If you can do that, why do you need an arbitrary(?) upper limit for the settlement population? I think it would be easier to keep expanding indefinitely using the same pattern, neighborhood by neighborhood, than to expend the effort required to start a whole new settlement.
New Euthenia should leave that investment to its emigrants.
"We go big, or we don't go." - GCNRevenger
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Mr. Edwards:
You wrote, "If you can do that, why do you need an arbitrary(?) upper limit for the settlement population?"
I have suggested that the settlement have up to 148 neighborhoods so that if each neighborhood elects one member to the city council then the membership of the city council will not exceed The Magic Number, 150. And I have suggested that the members of the council have lunch together regularly as a way of encouraging them to become a social network.
I have seen television reports about fist fights erupting in various parliaments and I have read reports of U.S. Congress members attacking each other. And recently the U.S. Vice President used very obscene language when speaking to a member of the Senate. These sorts of behaviors should not occur in New Euthenia.
I believe that it will be very important for the members of the New Euthenia City Council to be able to work together in a peaceful and respectful manner. The members of the council must be able to set an excellent example for young people.
"Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more that a statement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern." Joseph A. Schumpeter; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942
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I have seen television reports about fist fights erupting in various parliaments and I have read reports of U.S. Congress members attacking each other. And recently the U.S. Vice President used very obscene language when speaking to a member of the Senate. These sorts of behaviors should not occur in New Euthenia.
I submit that they should not occur in the US Congress and other various parliaments, either! :laugh:
However, I concede the point: limiting a settlement's size limits the size of the government required to run it. Smaller government agencies have more effective communication and social contacts (being closer to the size dictated by the "rule of 150"). Since this argument (interpersonal contact being an integral part of municipal government) actually does hinge on the Rule of 150, that implies that New Euthenia should not have significantly more than 150 neighborhoods.
In fact, I would suggest fewer. A parliamentary body requires support staff, including secretarial/office staff, public works crews, etc. The government of New Euthenia could end up being the largest "neighborhood" in the city! :;):
"We go big, or we don't go." - GCNRevenger
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Mr. Edwards:
You wrote, "The government of New Euthenia could end up being the largest 'neighborhood' in the city!"
Yes, the city government might be the biggest employer in the city, and that concerns me because I am not a fan of socialism. However, given the contingencies of survival that prevail on Mars, I expect New Euthenia to be at least as socialistic as the Scandinavian countries of Earth.
Just imagine how many people will be involved in maintaining the air containment systems of the city. There will be air-tight sealant on the interior surface of every neighborhood and municipal dome and on of the interior surfaces of the network of streets. And there will be hundreds of automatic fire doors to be inspected and maintained. And dozens of air locks. And every breath of air in the city will be man-made and constantly remanufactured. The city government will have departments of air, water, sewer, electricity, streets, transporation, education, etc. And a city council of 148 members will probably be divided into numerous committees and subcommittees that oversee the operation of these departments and their various divisions. Wow! Government bureaucracy as far as the eye can see. And that's a little frightening to me because I know, from first-hand experience, how corrupt governments can become. But I am not trying to design my idea of utopia. I am trying to design a sociocultural system that can maintain and replicate itself on Mars.
"Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more that a statement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern." Joseph A. Schumpeter; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942
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I am trying to design a sociocultural system that can maintain and replicate itself on Mars.
And I applaud your efforts. But I, and I suspect many others believe that you are over-engineering it to the point of absurdity. The Euthenia proposal goes beyond colonial government and crosses into the realm of culture-building. It takes on too much with expectations that are too high, and the underlying premise that a government system suitable for small numbers in early conlonies can effectively grow to encompass a large technological society is flawed. A smooth flowing progression is more elegant, but in many ways unrealistic.
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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Small numbers in any early colony is more a matter of resources versus hardship if over population is introduced within a small regional area. This leads to crime.
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Cobra:
You wrote, "And I applaud your efforts. But I, and I suspect many others believe that you are over-engineering it to the point of absurdity. The Euthenia proposal goes beyond colonial government and crosses into the realm of culture-building."
I will try to give you some insight into why I may appear to be "over-engineering." I have worked as an electrician and I have watched the coordinated behaviors of dozens of workmen in many different trades as they implement plans that contain thousands of details. For a medium-size commercial building, those details may be contained in a set of blueprints that are 100 pages long. (And I have seen what can happen when a workman fails to install one small screw in the right place.)
I have also worked as an electrical estimator. As such, I would spend several days analyzing the plans for a construction project and then writing a contract proposal based on my analysis. This work has enabled me to appreciate how difficult it is to draft construction plans that integrate thousands of details. Some of the plans that I analyzed were so poorly drafted that we decided not to submit a bid.
I have written and lobbied bills through the state legislature. This has given me valuable insights into how the political system of a modern society functions. And I was very thankful that our legislature only has 120 members. I panic at the thought of having to deal with the more than 500 members of the U.S. Congress. Yikes!!
And I have conducted ethnographic field work in a foreign country. This experience has taught me how challenging it can be to deal with the needs and expectations of people from many different societies and cultures.
In summary, when I look at my plans for The Euthenia Project I think how terribly incomplete they are. Real plans for a Martian exploration and settlement program would be thousands of pages long and would involve tens of thousands of people working together for several decades. So I do not think that I am "over-engineering." My "outline" for The Euthenia Project is very far from being a complete set of plans for an international effort to explore and settle Mars.
My plans for The Euthenia Project would be much simpler if they were designed to be implemented by only one nation (e.g., the U.S.A.). However, the United States is not able to mount a Martian exploration and settlement program. The United States is more than 40 trillion dollars in debt and technically bankrupt. When foreign central banks stop purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds the U.S. dollar will crash and the U.S. will default on its debts (as Argentina did a couple of years ago). So an effort to explore and settle Mars will have to be an international effort. And I believe that "culture-building" is a necessary part an international effort to colonize Mars. A ProtoMartian culture will, for political purposes, include components from all nations that participate in The Euthenia Project, and that composite culture must have the ability to rapidly adapt to its transplantation to Mars.
"Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more that a statement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern." Joseph A. Schumpeter; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942
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Your explanation gives some insight into your perspective, I can see where you're coming from a bit better now. Yet I submit this for your consideration: Establishing a colonial government is not wiring a building. Commercial buildings are static structures, you erect it and it's essentially done. Governments and societies are dynamic systems. The rules of one do not translate to the other.
A building with missing parts will collapse. A government with missing elements, particularly when starting out and with a small population, will adapt. People generally know what's best for them, they'll work it out. Send people to Mars with a ten-thousand page tome on which they are to base their society and they will resist. Human beings are not interchangeable parts that can be plugged into place according to a rigid plan. We aren't robots. The Martians can work out the details of their society themselves. They have to, no one can do it for them. Not every endeavor needs plans to cover every aspect in excruciating detail, particularly when it pertains to how people choose to live on a desolate frontier where you can't enforce rules on them from afar.
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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Cobra:
You wrote, "Send people to Mars with a ten-thousand page tome on which they are to base their society and they will resist." Yes, I would expect people to reject a ten-thousand-page tome that had been written by some self-proclaimed know-it-all. That is why I have designed an environment that will allow people to come together and write their own rules. Under my proposal, The Ordinances of The City of New Euthenia would be formulated in the "experimental neighborhoods" of a prototype Martian settlement named The City of Euthenia.
Please note that the Pilgrims signed the Mayflower Compact BEFORE they set sail for the New World. And American settlers who joined wagon trains bound for Oregon signed compacts BEFORE they set out on their journeys. So I think that my proposal has plenty of historical precedent.
I believe that settlers should write and adopt The Ordinances of The City of New Euthenia BEFORE they leave Earth. I further believe that this procedure is just common sense.
"Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more that a statement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern." Joseph A. Schumpeter; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942
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Very well. Except that the Mayflower compact was a brief statement of solidarity and intent, not a detailed plan for a future society.
Governing a small frontier colony is very different than governing a civilized state. They require very different approaches. A system designed to function for both will be poorly suited to either. If Martian colonists want to make a run at it this way they're welcome to try, but I find it unlikely.
Build a man a fire and he's warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he's warm for the rest of his life.
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Except for the size limits and the part about no fist-fights in city hall, very little has been discussed in the way of details internal rules and regulations. I see no reason why the rules can't vary with scale. In fact, I like the idea that a settlement of this type would have clearly defined scales at which the rules MUST vary.
"We go big, or we don't go." - GCNRevenger
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Mr. Edwards:
An anthropologist named Robin Dunbar wrote an article about the sizes of human groups. That article contains the following paragraph:
"One place we might look for evidence of 'natural' human group sizes is among pre-industrial societies, and in particular among hunter-gatherers. Most hunter-gatherers live in complex societies that operate at a number of levels. The smallest groupings occur at temporary night camps and have between 30 and 50 individuals. These are relatively unstable, however, with individuals or families constantly joining and leaving as they move between different foraging areas or water holes. The largest grouping is normally the tribe itself, usually a linguistic grouping that defines itself rather strictly in terms of its cultural identity. Tribal groupings typically number between 500 and 2500 men, women and children. These two layers of traditional societies are widely recognised in anthropology. In between these two layers, however, is a third group often discussed, but seldom enumerated. Sometimes, it takes the form of 'clans' that have ritual significance, such as the periodic celebration of coming-of-age ceremonies. Sometimes, the clan is based on common ownership of a hunting area or a set of water holes. For the few cases where census data are available, these clan groups turn out to have a mean size of about 153."
The full text of Dunbar's article can be found on the web at http://www.uboeschenstein.ch/sal/dunbar … unbar.html
Here is an interesting tidbit about a micro-state named Nauru (population 12,570). The CIA's World Factbook contains the following description of that nation's flag: "blue with a narrow, horizontal, yellow stripe across the center and a large white 12-pointed star below the stripe on the hoist side; the star indicates the country's location in relation to the Equator (the yellow stripe) and the 12 points symbolize the 12 original tribes of Nauru."
I wonder if it would be advisable to divide the population of New Euthenia into 10 tribes. When the population is at its maximum of 22,200 (148 neighborhood "clans" x 150 members per clan), each of the 10 tribes would have about 2,200 members, which is within the range of "500 and 2,500," as reported by Dunbar.
Once upon a time, I was extremely surprised to find that the bylaws of each of the political parties in the State of California is set forth in state law! This strange fact provides us with an example that could have "tribal" implications. What if each of the tribes of New Euthenia had the right to propose that the City Council adopt ordinances that apply to the tribe's members? For example, the rules of inheritance, marriage, etc., might vary from one tribe to another. And the means of settling intra-tribal disputes might vary from one tribe to another.
My design for New Euthenia includes 100 urban neighborhoods and 48 agricultural neighborhoods. In order to prevent social factions from developing along the urban/agricultural divide, it might be advisable to make sure that each tribe includes urban and agricultural neighborhoods. What do you think of that bit of "social engineering"?
"Analysis, whether economic or other, never yields more that a statement about the tendencies present in an observable pattern." Joseph A. Schumpeter; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, 1942
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