China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US?

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-18 07:56:49

On the flip side of that if your jobs are unionized, civil serviced or government in form they become protected from this outsourcing to other nations that have lower labor rates.

...artificially driving up wages for those workers and consequently prices of the goods they manufacture, thus fueling the demand for cheap imports, which in turn encourages outsourcing. No way out.

Except for government jobs of course, as they produce nothing. That's my big worry on the US economy, the government sector is expanding while manufacturing drops.

What will China do when people don't accept a dollar a day?
They will do what the US has done so well.....look for markets in cash poor countries where people are happy to make t-shirts for a dollar a day!

I can see it now, Chinese workers angry at outsourcing to Africa, carrying on like the sky is falling. :laugh:

When or even if the chinesse people start to make say $15 a day you will notice China taking on larger government projects (including spaceflight).

China will have the means to take on larger government projects. This doesn't automatically mean that they will. It's largely a function of perceived benefits. They probably won't decide to land a thousand taikonauts on Mars to build a big base, complete with Mao statues and pagodas. They may try to land four if they think it's important enough to upstage the US.

But then, we can be a rather nationalistic lot ourselves. If China does get an ambitious space program moving forward it won't exist in a vacuum. :hm: Er, you know what I mean. They wont be forging ahead free of competition. In all likelihood they'd set of a pissing contest with the US as millions of bored Americans with a nagging inferiority complex see friggin' China surpassing us.

So if the Chinese communist government decrees that the red flag be planted on the red planet, we'll get moving ourselves. Our space program seems to depend on communists spurring us to action.

If. If China doesn't implode, if they amass the resources, if their leaders deem the endeavor worthwhile, if they can actually pull it off.

deagleninja · 2004-08-18 08:15:23

It will also be interesting to watch as China becomes more democratic, will population increases force China to look to Mars as an expansion possibility?

You and I both know that no matter how ambitious a space program China has, it won't be enough to transport population growth to Mars even if Mars could be made to sustain thousands of immigrants a year.

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-18 08:34:41

You and I both know that no matter how ambitious a space program China has, it won't be enough to transport population growth to Mars even if Mars could be made to sustain thousands of immigrants a year.

Quite true.

The question is whether they'll come to view it as way to expand their civilization in a cultural, dominance and territorial sense, rather than a mundane "population management" issue.

Americans don't for the most part think this way. The Chinese don't seem to as yet either, but they're closer.

What is very likely to occur is that they will have the will, and we will have the means. This may be a buried undercurrent in China's recent expression of a desire to cooperate in space endaevors.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-04 … -04zx.html

Time will tell.

Vir Stellae · 2004-08-18 08:51:36

The thing is, China only needs to become as rich as Taiwan or South Korea to become much more powerful than the US, simply because there are so many Chinese people. China's "demographic gray meltdown" won't happen until decades after the US experiences a similar meltdown, and when their economy hits a "bump", it usually just means that it is only expanding slightly faster than the US economy does in a boom.

Which is easier said than done. As a matter of fact the US is practically the *only* western nation that will not melt down(Ireland, Canada and Australia are not in bad shape). yeah we have a boomer problem, but Europe and Japan have this *with* a rapidly shrinking population and even faster shrinking workforce. The US has the highest birthrates of any western power *and* Immigration.

esa.un.org/unpp

Select "constant fertility' and "median age" in panel 2.

The US will have a younger median age than China in 2050.
Most European nations and Japan will have them over 50!!
Right now the US population is growing faster than China's and will hit 425million in 2050 and China will begin to shrink form 1.4 billion in 2030 to 1.3 billion.

The US has large and rapidly growing debts, both internally and externally, in addition to an aging population. Surely some of the world's other countries can do better than that?

The US has smaller deficits and neational debts relative to the size of it's GDP than both the EU and Japan.

Go to http://www.economist.com]www.economist.com country breifings. US deficit is 4% Japan is nearly 8% and France and Germany both are 4%.
Japans debt as a % of GDP is 155%!!! the US is 62% and France 69%. THe EU average is 68%. The percentages play out t so that the absolute vlaue of the sum of their debt is larger than the US. and Japan, while now only about 40% our size, has a natiuon debt of $7 trillion that will pass ours as well. China is also running a 5% deficit but can outgrow it.

The US is in much better shape to outgrow it's debt, than Japan or Europe. The US has been, and will continue to grow twice as fast as both at least. The US deficit was larger as a % of GDP but the % of GDP that is national debt grew faster in Europe with it's averaged 3% deficit because their economy is sucking wind.

smurf975 · 2004-08-18 10:44:14

I think China should be compared to India as I read once that both want regional control. (I read this is why China sold nukes to Pakistan, to keep India busy)

Look at this (snippet) data that I got from the country data briefings of China and India (from 1999 - 2003:

China
GDP per head ($ at PPP) 3,651 3,980 4,330 4,690
GDP (% real change pa) 7.14 7.95 7.30 8.01
Public debt (% of GDP) 6.14 8.58 10.43 13.16
Labour costs per hour (USD) .53 .59 .69 .80
Recorded unemployment (%) 7.40 8.20 9.30 9.00

India
GDP per head ($ at PPP) 2,360 2,500 2,620 2,830
GDP (% real change pa) 3.95 5.14 4.59 8.10
Public debt (% of GDP) 56.52 57.66 60.60 62.20
Labour costs per hour (USD) 0.59 0.62 0.66 0.74
Recorded unemployment (%) 9.17 9.20 9.90 9.50

-->
Overall China is doing better then India, especially if you look at the whole data (on the http://www.economist.com]www.economist.com/ country briefings).

However if you look at the GDP you will see that India is growing much faster (almost twice the growth of GDP) then China but then China's economy is bigger so a few percent of growth is quantativly much more. As perhaps as some economist say growth going to fast is bad for the general economy.
However a Chinese person has almost the double of purchasing power of an Indian and their wealth increased much more in the last years then a Indians whos wealth increase was a lackluster.

But then the public debt levels of India are almost at the same level of developed countries and I'm sure you will not see as much of it as you would see in a developed country. India public debt 62% and China 13%. So China has some playing room for debts but India must be carefull.

Labor costs in China have risen with 27 cents/hour and in India it was more modest with 15 cents/hour. But the difference is negligible for a western country thinking of investing in either country. India 74 cents and China 80 cents

Chinese unemployment has risen with 1.6% while India's rose with 0.33% but is still lower then India's. This can be due to the fact that a lot of rural Chinese people leave towards to city in the hope to find better wages then on their farms. And it may take a while to find a job.

---

Euler · 2004-08-18 13:37:11

US deficit is 4% Japan is nearly 8% and France and Germany both are 4%.
Japans debt as a % of GDP is 155%!!! the US is 62% and France 69%. THe EU average is 68%. The percentages play out t so that the absolute vlaue of the sum of their debt is larger than the US. and Japan, while now only about 40% our size, has a natiuon debt of $7 trillion that will pass ours as well. China is also running a 5% deficit but can outgrow it.
The US is in much better shape to outgrow it's debt, than Japan or Europe. The US has been, and will continue to grow twice as fast as both at least. The US deficit was larger as a % of GDP but the % of GDP that is national debt grew faster in Europe with it's averaged 3% deficit because their economy is sucking wind.

Yes, but that is just the internal public debt. The US also has a 5% GDP trade deficit, and has acquired a 30% GDP foreign debt. Meanwhile, Japan, the EU, China, etc. have trade surpluses and no net external debt.

karov · 2004-08-19 01:05:39

The dominant superpower in 21th century?

I personally bet on EU.

According to many high possition EU bureaucrats, i.e. important politicians from the biggest and most powerfull member-nations, the most crucial decission to be made in global geopolitical plan is: whether or not to accept Russia in the club? It seems the last is inevitable. The Russians affraid that they could lost Siberia ~14 mln km2, the EU polititians think Siberia as their playground. In Siberia there are less than 10 mln population. To keep it Rusia needs help in long run. EU is attractive to Russia, also because of the EU institutions are designed in way that such big country will have quite big influence in the union affairs...

EU in 2025 will include the nowaday 25 countries ( + Bulgaria and Romania in 2007, + all the Balkans and the ~80 mln. Turkey in 2015?) AND Ukraine (>50 mln.), Belorus, Moldova, Russia (~150 000 000). That means the total population of the Union will be >700 000 000 - comparable with the Great monsters - India and China, but in much better economicalm and technological shape. Already the overall EU economy size is bigger than the US`s. In the envisioned 2025 it will be much bigger. The system will have all the necesarry natural resourses in quantative terms and diversity on ITS own territory which is unprecedented situation in the world history.
Also, the Mediterranean countries and the Gulf will be direct neighbours of the EU. US, Canada, Japan, China, Southern Asia, too. The arabic petrol countries - direct neighbours are plannd to be included in the union`s economical space, i.e. in the Eurozone of common conomics and currancy, but will not be represented in the EU institutions. Associated under unified terms treaties , but out of the commonwealth institutions. It is matter of time, several years Great Britain to accept the euro. The local population opposes this and wishes to be preserved the pound, but also more than 50% think that the polititians taking euro-decission is inevitable situation. Remember that the British commonwealth of nations ( see the list in the net) consists of 48 countries ( India, Pakistan, South Africa...) which have very strong ties with the former Metropoly...

Latin America - from USA to Antarctica, considered as US zone, quickly allong the local unification - Mercosur + the Andes` treaty + the EU`s TransAtlantic free trade association and the Iberian commonwealth with Portugal and Spain - the former metropolies, can get much closer back to Europe...

Before WWII more than 90% of the world affairs were determined and ruled from bunch of european capitals. Now when the continent quickly overcomes the division lines occured here since the time of the Roman empire, this geopolitical situation can repeat.

Trebuchet · 2004-08-19 12:50:23

The only thing the people who are arguing between China and the US being the gorilla of the 21st century will agree on is that the EU is *not* the next big thing. It's a stagnant raft of nationalities. If you're wondering, NAFTA (US-Canada-Mexico free trade zone) already outweighs the EU (12.22 trillion versus 11.50 trillion), and Europe has been growing slower than the US for quite some time, and the EU expects that trend to continue. I certainly expect this trend to continue.

"European companies, just like (Jonathan) Swift's Gulliver, need to be released from thousands of small constraints that stop them from releasing their economic potential in order to create prosperity for Europe," says Jurgen Strube, head of the European employers federation, UNICE.
EU enthusiasts have traditionally brushed aside criticism of the bloc's dismal economic record by focusing on quality of life issues.
"The EU many not be as competitive as the United States," supporters admit, "but at least it guarantees high level of environmental protection and a certain standard of living for its workers."

Those tons of regulations add up, and they add up to the inability to catch up the the United States:

The major reason for the per capita GDP gulf between the EU and the United States is the ever-widening productivity gap between the world's two-largest economic powers. Whereas U.S. productivity growth rates have risen to above 2 percent, in Europe they hover between 0.5 percent and 1 percent, meaning the average productivity of a European worker is 12 percent below that of his or her American colleague.

The US alone will surpass the EU's combined economy fairly soon; it will pass it population-wise by midcentury, and it's pretty clear that while for a few centuries the world was ruled from Europe, it's just as clear that for the next few it's probably going to be ruled from Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi.

deagleninja · 2004-08-20 02:17:31

I disagree. We had prided ourselves on our diversity and correctly stated that it is our greatest strength, not a weakness. The EU now has greater diversity that even our nation. Is it too much? I don't know, but I don't believe you can have too much diversity.
I feel it is very signifigant that countries that have had war with each other longer than we have been in existance, are not only at peace, but working together.
And as far as space exploration goes, don't forget that several of these countries were incredible pioneers and colonizers leaving a mark on the world still felt today.
China and the EU have come much farther in the past ten years than the US did in it's infancy....

John Creighton · 2004-08-20 12:49:53

I disagree. We had prided ourselves on our diversity and correctly stated that it is our greatest strength, not a weakness. The EU now has greater diversity that even our nation. Is it too much? I don't know, but I don't believe you can have too much diversity.
I feel it is very signifigant that countries that have had war with each other longer than we have been in existance, are not only at peace, but working together.
And as far as space exploration goes, don't forget that several of these countries were incredible pioneers and colonizers leaving a mark on the world still felt today.
China and the EU have come much farther in the past ten years than the US did in it's infancy....

Some would argue that it was because Europe was made of many small states that it promoted the quick rise of science during the renaissance. Compare this to India which during the same time was fairly wealth had a large base of land and people. One big united nation doesn’t always help push things forward. Usually it is the contrary that does. That is the diversity of ideas and thought. I once had a professor that said something like to be a really good engineer get out of your back door. Go travel and see how other people do things. These things could be as simple as the hinges on a door or the way a toilet works. In Europe people have the advantage of traveling to see so many differences in such a small area. This is definitely a strength.

smurf975 · 2004-08-20 13:03:34

]Some would argue that it was because Europe was made of many small states that it promoted the quick rise of science during the renaissance. Compare this to India which during the same time was fairly wealth had a large base of land and people. One big united nation doesn’t always help push things forward. Usually it is the contrary that does. That is the diversity of ideas and thought

I don't want to be a nitpick but as I understand India used be hundreds of sultanates (excuse spelling) and kindoms. And GB when they colonized it made one central government. As still today India has dozens of languages and cultures.

MarsDog · 2004-08-20 21:28:45

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5380736/]Fear motivated Apollo Moon efforts, and the arms race ended communism in Russia.
China also has no choice, but to compete in an arms race that will bankrupt the current system.

John Creighton · 2004-08-20 22:02:46

Fear motivated Apollo Moon efforts, and the arms race ended communism in Russia.
China also has no choice, but to compete in an arms race that will bankrupt the current system.

I think the race should be towards nano technology. Whoever achieves it first archives industrial dominance. Industrial dominance gives the resource to help archive military dominance and space dominance.

MarsDog · 2004-08-20 22:20:02

US will hustle China into thinking it can compete, even after the top Chinese scientists have emigrated.

deagleninja · 2004-08-21 09:39:33

I don't believe we live in a world where the first wins anymore. Information is very freely shared these days. So anyone making key breakthroughs in say nanotech can't key their secrets for long.

In the past, governments were the sole funders of groundbreaking research and could therefore keep a lid on world altering technology. We now live in a world where governemnts are more concerned in waging war to protect its citizens way of life (be they outdated or not) than to fund research that could better people's lives.

Most ground-breaking R&D is done by corporations. Meaning if Joe Blow develops a radical break through in nanotech, he will need to give away some of the information in order to maintain or increase his funding.

China is benefiting from this age of sharing. I honestly can't see the US doing anything to change this. The more we have alienated China, the more we ourselves are alienated.

Commodore · 2004-08-21 10:10:22

I wouldn't worry about China. The communists will be gone when the uncontrolled economic bubble there in bursts or they try to start something with Tiawan/US.

In the end they'll end up something like Japan, a valuable economic powerhouse and ally.

Vir Stellae · 2004-08-22 06:45:30

In the end they'll end up something like Japan, a valuable economic powerhouse and ally.

or else we could end up with a North and South China one communist, likely the south would be free, and the north not. That would not be too good.

And the fact that a Chinese civil war could kill probably tens of millions, but freedom is not free.

Vir Stellae · 2004-08-22 07:07:17

The only thing the people who are arguing between China and the US being the gorilla of the 21st century will agree on is that the EU is *not* the next big thing. It's a stagnant raft of nationalities. If you're wondering, NAFTA (US-Canada-Mexico free trade zone) already outweighs the EU (12.22 trillion versus 11.50 trillion), and Europe has been growing slower than the US for quite some time, and the EU expects that trend to continue. I certainly expect this trend to continue.

this is all true save for one ver important fact; the US is already larger than the EU, Nevermind NAFTA. it passed it in about 1999-2000
Even with the en new mwmbers it is not larger, it certainly has lessend the gap, but not too much. The ten new members add about 80 million peopple, but bring the economic power of the netherlands with them. The ten new member include such economic heavyweights as malta, Cyprus and Lithuania...

The EU15 have an economy of about 10.5 Trillion, and the US is 11.0 Trillion; The ten new members add about 3-400 billion.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/4/30539 … 539246.pdf

Interesting enough, the EU has been adding new members fast enought to keep up with the US economy for quite some time, with Austria, Finland and Sweden in 1995, and Spain Greece and Portugal in the 80s.

Considering theat FY04 has already ended, The US grew 4.78% versus he EU25s ~1.8% mking the US economy now 11.7 trillion itself. The US has higher Productivity combined with higher populaion growth. Even the EU's own studies hae found that because of population shrinking and ageing that Europe's share of the world economy with have halved by 2050, even wih 5 new members, while the US' share will have *grown* from 23 to 26%.

karov · 2004-08-22 10:32:08

Russia, Turkey, Belorus, Ukraine... will increase the population of EU if accepted as full-fledged member-states with ~300 000 000 people. EU thus will have combined all the necesarry resourses within its borders. The ENP ( European Neighborhood Policy) "integration, minus membership" will tie up closely in eurozone all the direct neighbours... the petrol producing states from the Mediteranean and the Near and Middle East... If at all this very probable situation occur -- in 2025 it should be a fact.

Commodore · 2004-08-22 13:41:38

or else we could end up with a North and South China one communist, likely the south would be free, and the north not. That would not be too good.

We already have that with China and Tiawan.

smurf975 · 2004-08-22 14:45:37

A lot can happen between now and 2025.

For example the whole middle east problem can end (by Arab countries reconizing Israel?) and the arab countries can concentrate on internal problems and perhaps forming their own economic union.

South East Asian countries could also from a union. Basically if China a North Korea would officially accept some form of capatilisme and the Taiwan problem is settled then I see nothing stopping from south east asia starting an union of their own.

Aliens can invade
Huge solar flare destroys all electronics on Earth.

I mean who would have known 25 years ago the world would turn out like its now. Reagan calling Sjovets evil empire, computers as big as houses, internet, mobile phones, space shuttle didn't acclomplish much and etc..

Grypd · 2004-08-22 15:50:49

Not all analysts believe that the Chinese are as big as threat as some believe. In fact some think that the Chinese lion is actually a pussy cat.

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/oped-04x.html]Space daily article

It is an interesting article when you think about it. So much for a fear based space race

deagleninja · 2004-08-23 05:08:41

Yes interesting article, but how valid will it be when china's economy has doubled a few times? The fact that they can do what they have with their 1.5B annual budget astounds me.

The dangerous thing about China's space rogram is that unlike in the US it is a great source of nationalistic pride. When China spends money on their space program it directly aids the country by quieting opposition. It unites China in short.

When the US trys to increase spending on its space program there is strong opposition.

Ask yourself this, if we woke up tommorrow and China had landed a few people on the Moon, what would our reaction be? I don't think even this would start a new space race, because most people would be like 'so what'.

This is why I fear that China will take the lead in space before we can or will do anything about it. If they can land people on the Moon and we don't even jerk, then by the time they want to go to Mars we will be too far behind to dream of catching up.

SpaceNut · 2004-08-23 05:47:00

The nations of old that use to fight amongst each other have seen what democracy can do in terms of world power not to mention the standard of living change by having done so.

SpaceNut · 2004-08-23 08:27:38

Just another one of those changing land scape items.
Dancing on eggs: US space cooperation with China
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/212/1

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