China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US?

smurf975 · 2004-08-17 14:31:25

Put another way, who is more liekly to win a woman's heart: a man that is sexist or a man that believes women are his equal?

This says nothing about a man's intelligence, just his values. Also it depends on a womans values which of the two she will choose if the two men are equally wealthy. And nothing is stopping these two men to be equally wealthy.

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 14:38:50

And as for all these so-called challenges that China needs to face, where's the problem? Challenges and obsticles are what make people and nations great. America hasn't had a real challenge since we landed on the moon, and what have we done since then? Stagnanted, thats what.

Using our over-comfortable lifestyles as a monument of our greatness is the perfect example of how blind a lot of us are. A fat population is not a testament to greatness.

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 14:46:42

Oh ok Smurf, I'm sorry. Bigotry has nothing to do with low intelligence.

Seriously, descrimination/sexism has everything to do with intelligence. Hating women or thinking them inferior isn't a value but a lack of it. If you think you are better than a woman or someone with different skin color just because you are male or white then you aren't expressing a different system of beliefs, but a lack of comprehension and yes intelligence.

Euler · 2004-08-17 15:12:39

The imballence in the sexes is not really all that big. The current male:female ratio is only 1.06:1, and China is relaxing its population controls so it should not get much worse.

Anyway, what I find troubling is that China's industry expands by over 12% every year, while US industry shrinks by 4% every year. China already has at least 60% more industry than the US, and this will continue to expand. The fact is that more things are made in China than in the US, and this leads to the US having a massive trade deficit while China has a trade surplus. Now compound this with an ageing population and an addiction to increasingly scarce foreign oil, and the US has some serious long-term problems.

Palomar · 2004-08-17 15:24:43

Call me crazy but I believe Chinesse will be spoken throughout the solar system.
There is a lot of talk about where the US will be in 20 years, but lets be realistic, we aren't going to be THE major spacefaring country in the next 20 years. China is.
...
We are a society so self-absorbed and decadent that we can't see the writing on the wall.

*Don't you mean the handwriting on the Great Wall?

A few months ago, in a used/out-of-print/rare bookseller's store, I saw a title about the threat(s) which the Soviet Union would pose from 1990 to 2010.

It was published in 1988. Bad timing.

Things can change swiftly, dramatically and unexpectantly.

Most books published 20 years ago (even if written methodically and objectively) attempting to foresee trends have turned out wrong.

I'd be more inclined to put ESA at the "head of the class" in 20 years but...well, I'll tell you in 2025, how's that?

--Cindy

smurf975 · 2004-08-17 15:25:06

Oh ok Smurf, I'm sorry. Bigotry has nothing to do with low intelligence.
Seriously, descrimination/sexism has everything to do with intelligence. Hating women or thinking them inferior isn't a value but a lack of it. If you think you are better than a woman or someone with different skin color just because you are male or white then you aren't expressing a different system of beliefs, but a lack of comprehension and yes intelligence.

I think that in most cases it has to with (family, the way you were raised) culture, personal experiences and ignorance.

BTW: I never said I thought those particular values are wrong or right. I'm just trying to say if you take an identical twin and seperate them and put in two different families, one which considers women lower and the other a more modern family. You will see that the children tend to pick up the values tought by their parents even though that this identical twin in theory should be as intelligent.

But yes people who can't cope with new ideas and ways can be considered idiots. Even on a evolutionary scale as the animal that is best at adapting wins the race.

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 16:04:20

Smurf, no hard feelings, I wasn't implying you were a bigot.

Cindy, I myself have several sci-fi books written in the early 80's where the Soviet Union has beaten us to Mars, back to the Moon, etc.

But the crucial difference is that China is not a union of subject states forced together. China will not have to worry about splittling up like the Soviet Union.

Perhaps more importantly is the amount of momentum that China's economy has. America has never experienced this rate of growth that China is going through now. Our greatest rate of growth in the past century was after WWII and that carried us to the Moon.....

Vir Stellae · 2004-08-17 16:26:09

Do any of you know what you are Talking about?

China is seriously the most overhyped country on the face of the planet, and their economy while growing fast is nearing that same point that Japan was in the late 80s.

In real GDP, not the fake 3rd-world overinflating PPP, Chinas REAL economy is smaller than Italy's and California's.

The US economy is 11 Trillion, and Industry is ~20% of it meaning $2.2 Trillion, larger than China's entire economy. That Figure, In itself is overinflated as well, as it INCLUDES Taiwan; a Nation with a $300 billion GDP. So the PRC's real economy is TEN TIMES smaller than ours. China is 45%. China's light industry(stocking-stuffers, digital camreas) Is impressive, but the heavy industries are no match for the west. China's car production barely tops south Korea, a coutry 24 times smaller than it.

Even on a GDP-PPP(which is crap and almost worthless) scale China's economy is half our size and If China can somehow keep it's unsustainable growth rates up it would still take 20-30 years to EQUAL ours, and you will find NO economist who will say that China

So Industrially on a world scale it is $450 billion vs. 2.2 trillion.

The truth is, is that industrial performance is becoming less and less important in the 21st century. We are in the mist of a major transition into an Information/Technology Economy just as the agrarian economies passed into industrial ones in the 1800s.

There is class strife brewing as well, ALL of the economical growth has come from the 200-300 million on the industrial west coast the other 1 billion peasant farmers are becoming relatively more and more poorer, which could very well lead to civil unrest.

Chinese financials are in even worse shape now than Japan's were in the Late 80s. There is MASSive overcapacity, and Bad loans total $500 billion dollars, about 40% of China's GDP! Investment is $660 billion, about 200 more than China can actually beneift from and China's deflation is turning to inflation, which is all bad news as China is a overheating economy, even worse so than Japan was...

If China growth does not slow down soon, China will go Kaboom. Japan is still in a recession from it.

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 16:52:26

Yada yada yada china weak yada yada china poor yada yada china stupid.....

Look, we can through figures at each other all day, but it doesn't change the facts.

America has been spinning its wheels since the early 70's and China hasn't. The fact that anybody is talking about China's economic power is testament to how far they have come (and they are just getting started).

China is poised to be an economic juggernaut and if we don't wake up and realize this soon, then we won't be able to do anything ten years down when it is too late.

You can't make comparisions to Japan. The analogy doesn't fit. Japan is an island nation that has virtually no resources. It's economic growth was not based on raw production power, rather it was based on over-inflated market projections (much like our boom/bust of the 80's).

The former Soviet Union is not a fair analogy either. China's borders havent changed in hundreds (thousands?) of years. China is also addressing humanitarian issues and becoming a strong supporter of human rights.......why? It is good for business.

John Creighton · 2004-08-17 16:57:52

The former Soviet Union is not a fair analogy either.

There is perhaps one valid similarity. Both of them are supposed to be communist and such governments haven’t had a good environmental track record. I don’t think it was environmental issues that hurt Russia but I know some will claim it is. Similarly some claim China is hurting itself in the same way. History will tell.

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 17:07:14

Very interesting. Besides Russia (Soviet Union) and perhaps China, what other communist countries have poor environmental track records?

I'm not trying to be a smarty-pants but it could be argued that all industrial countries have poor environmental track records. For instance, there are no parts of the US untouched by polution.

But I see your point. In a communist country public outcry doesn't amount to much reform (and perhaps you get a bullet in the head).

comstar03 · 2004-08-17 20:24:48

What you don't see is the chinese culture and the way business is conducted in china, not like in western society, it built through families, including the large multinational groups. Also China has learned from the Japanese experience with the western countries and trade, they won't have the same mistakes.

Remember its western companies helping to fuel the china's expansion with high-tech skills, resources, and equipment they will have an extremely well developed economy in a few years that could rival ESA and USA, There are plans to but a Asian Trade Block like ESA with China, Korea (N & S), Japan, Vietnam, and all the south-east asian countries. Again expanding and supporting the chinese growth.

Also remember we are using russian components launch on russian old launch vehicles for the ISS, So we do it , the chinese can as well.

For Sub-standard materials , alot of the base alloys are coming from Western Countries like Australia , and Japan. Again High-tech equal or better in some ways to USA Resources remember BHP Biliton is one of the Large resource companies in the world and its Australia, has long term contracts with china.

I see china, to press its monetary might as the years go by and expand their economy into a G9 Member as a economy superpower and then they will become a space superpower.

And

WGC,

Your Predications are false, because if US doesn't watch themselves they might be third in the space race with ESA and CHina ahead and fourth Russia. But Private enterprise might through the whole world of the space race upside down and come out first and then the countries.

John Creighton · 2004-08-17 20:34:36

What you don't see is the chinese culture and the way business is conducted in china, not like in western society, it built through families, including the large multinational groups. Also China has learned from the Japanese experience with the western countries and trade, they won't have the same mistakes.

Oh, give me my crystal ball. I think it is reasonable for many countries to excel as long as the have a reasonable infrustrure and capital base. Hay who knows maybe South Africa will come from behind and beat everyone to space :;): .

Hey Canada was the third nation in space and we don't have a very large population. Hey, just wait untill I become priminister. I think I will send pigs to mars. :;):

DERF · 2004-08-17 22:23:58

Canadian Bacon on Mars? I'm with you, John.

comstar03 · 2004-08-17 22:27:26

Private Enterprise Flag on Mars before any country flags !!!!

Euler · 2004-08-17 22:28:14

In real GDP, not the fake 3rd-world overinflating PPP, Chinas REAL economy is smaller than Italy's and California's.

PPP is a much better measurement of GDP then exchange rate GDP, especially for countries like China that artificially manipulate their currency. After all, you can buy a lot more with Chinese currency than you can with the "equivalent" in American dollars, and the Chinese government can change the exchange rate to alter the non-PPP GDP significantly without changing production at all.

China is the world's largest consumer of iron, steel, coal, rubber, aluminum, copper, food, and concrete, among other things. Does that sound like an economy that is smaller than California or Italy to you?

Chinese financials are in even worse shape now than Japan's were in the Late 80s.

Yes, China is having some problems with bad loans. However, the Chinese government is taking steps to correct the problem, and it has not yet interfered with economic growth.

If China growth does not slow down soon, China will go Kaboom.

Yes, China is close to overheating. However, the Chinese government is aware of the problem and in the last 6 months or so they have been taking steps to slow growth. Most economists seem to thin that it is working, and that China's economy will have a "soft landing" by achieving the government's goal of "only" 7% growth per year.

There is perhaps one valid similarity. Both of them are supposed to be communist and such governments haven’t had a good environmental track record. I don’t think it was environmental issues that hurt Russia but I know some will claim it is. Similarly some claim China is hurting itself in the same way. History will tell.

China and the environment: I have read estimates that environmental damage is hurting China by 7% GDP/year, and that China spends 1%GDP to protect the environment. Not sure how this compares with US or other industrialized countries though.

RobS · 2004-08-17 23:33:22

Two other things to remember about China:

1. China's western and southwestern borders were never fixed and definite and still aren't. Tibet was never firmly in the Chinese Empire and the most Tibetans don't want to be in it now. That's also true of the Uighurs and other Turkish speaking Muslim minorities in western China. The Chinese have not acommodated these minority groups adequately; guerilla actions against the central government are ongoing. If China democratizes, it will face the high likelihood that it will lose Tibet and possibly a few other western regions.

But this really won't effect China's GDP much because these are small-population, economically depressed regions.

2. The one-child population means in about 40 years China faces a crisis over old age pensions that makes the challenge of Japan and Europe look simple. At that point, there will be a lot of impoverished elderly people in China, a group that traditionally is deferred to and who have a lifetime of experience in making themselves heard. They can be expected to absorb a lot of China's economic surplus in the mid twenty-first century.

-- RobS

BWhite · 2004-08-17 23:41:16

2. The one-child population means in about 40 years China faces a crisis over old age pensions that makes the challenge of Japan and Europe look simple. At that point, there will be a lot of impoverished elderly people in China, a group that traditionally is deferred to and who have a lifetime of experience in making themselves heard. They can be expected to absorb a lot of China's economic surplus in the mid twenty-first century.
-- RobS

Want to hear something creepy?

At the Moon-Mars Blitz I sat across from a fellow who appears to have a fairly good knowledge of China and speaks one of the major Chinese dialects fluently. He claims that the government in Beijing has an aggressive smoking campaign.

Not anti-smoking, but smoking.

Why? To reduce life expentancy among retirees. Get all the 30 and 40 year people hooked on a multi-pack per day habit of unfiltered cigarettes and voila! Pensioner problem solved.

???

True? I don't know but the fellow I was talking to did speak fluent Chinese.

Rxke · 2004-08-18 01:15:51

The one-child policy is being largely disregarded err... ignored(?) in the more remote rural places, recent tallies showed. And the government seems to look the other way fors some reason... So they'll probably have plenty of young people later on. But maybe they won't be literate? And they'd probably be boys, in those rural places they also prefer sons...

About the smoking... Hmmm... It is becoming a serious problem fast in China, *a lot* of people smoke, sans filter. But actively encouraged? That'd be weird.

Anyhow, China is *big* in nanotech research. They take these 'visions' of nanomanufactoring quite seriously, so it seems... Go look at recent papers, a disproportionate part is Chinese, and I'd bet some of them (the more interesting ones,) are witheld from the West. Within 5-10 years, they'll have nanofactories to obliterate the production-world Muahaahaahaa! :;):

Ok, half kidding, but some people are predicting just that. Chris Phoenix from CRN, for example, did a lecture there, and he had the impression they already knew a lot- and more- about what he was saying, and some scientists were clearly pining to show him some revolutionary stuff they were working on, but of course... They couldn't.

YACT? (Yet Another Conspiracy Theory?)

Maybe not. A NASA/DARPA thinktank says, given enough funding, primitive nanofactories could be here very, very fast. And maybe China is working on just that. Giving it adequate funding is the key. As it is with everything. Give fusion research *adequate* funding, which means lots and lots of $$$$, not merely lots... and it won't be 10-15 years into the future for eternety...

Trebuchet · 2004-08-18 01:23:00

I'm wholly unworried about the China hype. Between the one-child policy they've had in place guaranteeding the demographic gray meltdown, and the fact that their banks are screwed in a Japan-like fashion when their economy hits a bump, and the wholly-export driven nature of their growth, which pretty much guarantees a nice nasty bump or two at some point...

China is the man burying the accelerator to the floor in his car. In theory everything is fine. In reality the road and his engine will have other plans at some point, and all that speed makes for a messy wreck on the highway.

The United States is probably in the best shape, long-run, of all the nations on earth for increasing its lead power-wise. This really isn't a rousing endorsement of the United States so much as it is a damning indictment of the truly screwed-up state the rest of the world is in or will be in soon.

Euler · 2004-08-18 03:31:46

The one-child policy is being largely disregarded err... ignored(?) in the more remote rural places, recent tallies showed. And the government seems to look the other way fors some reason... So they'll probably have plenty of young people later on. But maybe they won't be literate? And they'd probably be boys, in those rural places they also prefer sons...

The One-Child Policy has never really been mandatory. Chinese parents can have more than one child, but the government uses propaganda and economic incentive to discourage large families. For instance, education is free for the first child, but the parents will have to pay to educate additional children. Minorities are also exempt from the One-Child Policy.

I'm wholly unworried about the China hype. Between the one-child policy they've had in place guaranteeding the demographic gray meltdown, and the fact that their banks are screwed in a Japan-like fashion when their economy hits a bump, and the wholly-export driven nature of their growth, which pretty much guarantees a nice nasty bump or two at some point...

The thing is, China only needs to become as rich as Taiwan or South Korea to become much more powerful than the US, simply because there are so many Chinese people. China's "demographic gray meltdown" won't happen until decades after the US experiences a similar meltdown, and when their economy hits a "bump", it usually just means that it is only expanding slightly faster than the US economy does in a boom.

The United States is probably in the best shape, long-run, of all the nations on earth for increasing its lead power-wise. This really isn't a rousing endorsement of the United States so much as it is a damning indictment of the truly screwed-up state the rest of the world is in or will be in soon.

The US has large and rapidly growing debts, both internally and externally, in addition to an aging population. Surely some of the world's other countries can do better than that?

deagleninja · 2004-08-18 04:52:18

I was going to say....damnit Euler, you took the words out of my mouth.

But seriously, it is important to note that a China depression or recession would be on par with steady US growth (think Clinton years not Bush).

As more and more industry bends over backwards for China you have more Chinesse making pretty nice salaries (which in 20 years translates into a large generation of inheritence powered people). At that point China will control much more of the high tech market as its people can afford all the niceties that we enjoy (luxury cars, cell phones, computers). When more than half of China has a pc conected to the internet, then China's economic boom will start in earnest, as well as real social change.

What we are feeling now isn't really even the beginning of China's boom. All we are experiencing now are the tossings and turnings of the sleeping giant. When China's population can afford (10-15 years) all the junk we buy, only then will people understand its power. By then, unfortunately, it will be too late.

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-18 05:33:06

Okay, we're drifting into extremes here. TO calibrate back to reality:

Is China poised to become a major economic force? Yes.

Is China's economy one of if not the fastest growing at present? Yes.

Why? Exports to the west.

Okay, why? Cheap labor.

Well, why is labor so cheap? Because it's a fairly backward country, now capable of skilled manufacturing but still poor enough that you can pay people a dollar a day.

Oh. So it isn't sustainable? No. The growing Chinese economy will eventually drive wages up to the point at which they are comparable to those in western nations. No more advantage to making anything in China, move on. Further, Chinese exports will no longer be as competetive. Equilibrium follows. In addition, demographic issues will compound the problem.

So it's just a function of temporary wage gaps? Well, no. Though the recent boom is fueled almost entirely by exports, so kind of, yeah. You see?

Uhm, yeah, sort of. This is complicated.
Yes.

The short answer is that China isn't some backward podunk commie slum that'll never amount to anything, but it isn't the roaring powerhouse set to devour the world either. China is the subject of too much hype, but they get it based on some real developments. Ten years ago their military capability was being overplayed, now it's economic, and technological in the case of their space program. They've got some good things going for them, but they've got some huge problems of their own making looming on the horizon that they may not be able to dodge.

Kinda like US.

deagleninja · 2004-08-18 06:54:29

Hi Cobra!

It was only a matter of time before we got your two cents, but I know theres a couple nickels in your pocket

Yes, yes, and yes......er I mean no. I totally agree with most of what you say.

Will China's boom last forever?
No. No economic boom lasts forever. As you correctly state, when China does reach levels of western living and consumption (isn't that a great word?) then their success will cool their own fires. Wages will rise and cheap t-shirts will no longer be as available.

Does this mean an end to cheap t-shirts???
No. Companies don't typically raise wages to meet their demands for cheap t-shirts. What they do is maintain wages and if Chow Yung So is unhappy making t-shirts for a dollar a day he finds a better paying job (think computers, cell phones, etc.).

What will China do when people don't accept a dollar a day?
They will do what the US has done so well.....look for markets in cash poor countries where people are happy to make t-shirts for a dollar a day!

What the hell does t-shirts have to do with space or Mars???
Good question. And the connection isn't obvious at first glance. What we are talking about is a chinesse economic revolution. Chinas standard of living and economic muscle is rising at an incredible rate. This means that their people are getting closer to making the kind of income that we western civilizations are accustomed to making. When or even if the chinesse people start to make say $15 a day you will notice China taking on larger government projects (including spaceflight).

How can a t-shirt maker influence their space program?
Because they tax their citizens. As the chinesse people make more money, so does their government. China is already dealing with Russia for aerospace technology. Soon they will be striking deals with the ESA (a more mordern space-faring organization). However, even solely dealing with Russia, they can surpass our space superiority. After 50 years Soyez (sp?) and Soyez derived rocketry (China's first manned launch) is still the cheapest and some would say most dependable rocket in use. It is simple and that is its greatest strength. Even just using these kinds of rockets, China can put much more cargo into orbit or perhaps on the surface of the Moon or Mars.

Don't forget that China's communism is a benefit for a space program. If a rocket blows up and kills its crew, it is nowhere near the impediment that it would be here in the US (with a media salivating for a chance to call NASA stupid and wasteful).

Missions to Mars or even the Moon are likely to cost lives. We have already seen how easily our space program shuts its doors when we lose 7 people.

Advantage: China

SpaceNut · 2004-08-18 07:05:13

The rise and fall of a nations lead in the super power race can now a days be related to emerging nations come to dominance. For the same reason that a nation can come to power the inverse can be there down fall.

Just look at the manufacturing industry as a whole for the US. We have Seen nearly every job type outsourced and though this has made the Businesses more profitable to the owners and stock holders. The end result though has been rising unemployment rates, loss of job skills and so much more as it relates to the standard of living.

On the flip side of that if your jobs are unionized, civil serviced or government in form they become protected from this outsourcing to other nations that have lower labor rates.

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