China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US?

deagleninja · 2004-08-16 23:45:01

Call me crazy but I believe Chinesse will be spoken throughout the solar system.

There is a lot of talk about where the US will be in 20 years, but lets be realistic, we aren't going to be THE major spacefaring country in the next 20 years. China is.

China?!?! What the hell??? They just sent their first takinaunt.....or whatever they're called into space! How can you say that China will be the dominant nation in 20 years?

Well we just posted another record deficit with China. They just passed Japan as the second largest buyer of automobles. Their economy and living standards are skyrocketing. Oh and while we benefit from cheap t-shirts they are getting some of our best technology.

Come on Deagleninja, China can't beat the good ol US of A! We have:

1)Reality TV
2)Hip-hop
3)SUVs

Seriously, we are toast. Our level of education hasn't improved in the past 30 years. Our best scientists are born in other countries. We are a society so self-absorbed and decadent that we can't see the writing on the wall.

Euler · 2004-08-16 23:56:40

Absolutely. If we get our act together, we might last a little bit longer, but China seems pretty unstoppable. Unless there is a nuclear war.

karov · 2004-08-17 01:07:09

The point is that indeed certain level of wealth and living standard always stops these superfast development trends, cause demotivates the people. Look at Japan -- their strongest years were the 80-es, after that the demographic colapse broke their progress. The personal wellbeing spoils the people, they have latter in their lives and less numerous progeny...

About China don`t forget that they use several dozens of millions of prisoner as slave labour power...

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 01:11:48

Getting our 'act together' will only stall the changing of the guard.

Let's say, for the sake of arguement, that we magically enter a period of productivity and growth as great as that of post WWII. China is today outpacing that growth.

If we want to remain the world's leading industrial country we can either nuke China or enter another era of expansion. There really isn't much hope for us if we squander the 15-20 years it will take China to pass us in aerospace technology.

Rxke · 2004-08-17 01:17:29

About China don`t forget that they use several dozens of millions of prisoner as slave labour power...

Probably totally politically uncorrect, but: so what?

If I had a choice, I'd rather do slavework than rotting away in a prisoncell...

BTW: In Belgium we also have forced-labor, America had (or has?) its chain-gangs...

I'm not saying the Chinese government are saints, they certainly are not, but they aren't as bad as some people'd like us to think. Politics again.
In fact, China is slowly working to improve its human-rights stuff, and *that* is all about economics. Gotta look good to make big $$$ deals!

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 01:23:00

Yes karov, you are correct. But theres one little problem. For China to become satisfied and lazy, they must surpass us. Japan felt very superior to us in the 80's and became sloppy as a result. their buisnesses are only now picking up the pieces and relearning skills they have forgotten.

And as far as slave labor goes.....do we not also put our prisoners to work? My car has a licence plate that Im pretty sure was made in a prison somewhere.

But America need not resort to using prisoners for manual labor, we have something called the lower class. Our lower class makes our burgers, brings us refills of coffee, wipes our piss off our bathroom floors. And make no mistake, they are slaves. A slave is a human being forced to do labor to survive, without the opportunity to better their lives.

When you work two jobs for about 60+ hours a week you don't have time for college let alone seeking a better paying job. Think about it.

Euler · 2004-08-17 01:42:03

If we want to remain the world's leading industrial country

Actually, I think China is already the world's largest industrial country. The US still has a larger GDP, but a much smaller portion of that is industry.

The point is that indeed certain level of wealth and living standard always stops these superfast development trends, cause demotivates the people.

Unfortunately, the Chinese outnumber Americans by more than 4 to 1. By the time their standard of living approaches what we have in America, their economy will be several times larger.

Consider this: every year 60,000 engineers graduate from American colleges, while 220,000 engineers graduate from Chinese colleges.

Algol · 2004-08-17 01:48:27

I seem to remember reading somewhere that there simply arent the resources available for the 1.4 billion chinese citizens to reach a standard of living on par with america.

Just looking at oil, the world produces roughly 75 million barrels a day, and there really isnt much room for an increase. America consumes 20 million barrels a day, if china was to consume a per capita equivalent theyd need 100 million barrels a day and of course theyd want the associated 700 million cars/SUVs.

The USA has set the bar too high, in order for China to surpass the USA theres gonna need to be some messy wars at the very least.

Rxke · 2004-08-17 03:10:11

The USA has set the bar too high, in order for China to surpass the USA theres gonna need to be some messy wars at the very least.

Or China starts building giant solar-farms in orbit... Or on the Moon...

Seriously, it is a disaster in the making, not only economically, but also ecologically... They have huuuuuge coal reserves, and will surely start using them... Then you have the increased logging, the hydro-electric monster projects... It will be a very energy-hungry country indeed.

But that might lead to new ways of thinking/research about energy (solar/fuel cells, wind, nuclear... fusion?)

comstar03 · 2004-08-17 03:24:13

Then USA Industry and Government become more creative, not sit back and let the chinese catch up. What would happen , If russia and china combine talents in the space race , against the usa, " remember American doesn't make good team players in their own sandbox". I mean that china is trying to get access to the ISS if they don't what about Russia, China, Japan, and possible ESA build a secondary ISS, different design. That could happen !!!!

That would happen over the next 10 years then the race will be on for the moon and mars in the next twenty years.

Interesting turn of events could happen, and like the what happened with Puerto Rico and US Dream team ( Basketball ) the US Team go egg all over face, it could happen with space and the chinese would be the ones going it.

:laugh:

karov · 2004-08-17 03:26:47

I don`t remember the source but somewhere was told that the impresive economical growth of China (~7-8% per annum) is negativelly compensated almost double times ( minus 15% effectivelly per year) by the devastation of their environment. It occurs that indeed like other economies which showed for a while such enormous upward trends, they just consume their future -- something in economical effect like growing and growing further credit. Someone will pay it. The one is the chinese people after generation or two. In Bulgarian there is saying " Every miracle lasts no longer than days". The chinese are at their Second day, believe me.

Any time the bussiness seeks underdeveloped areas which logically became export centers cause of the much lower labor price. In these centers the locals produce much more than consume. The utilization of their human resourses such way leads to situation in which the area in certain moment gets richer, the population starts to consume intensivelly and the export balances. The bussiness seeks another labor heaven... time and again. The problem is that Asia is already very close to such export-power saturation point. The case is like in the thermodynamics -- the pressure is towards the poorer economies... But in the next ~50 years only Africa remains capable to sustain the labour international bussiness migration because of its enormous poverty. After the physical famine is defeated in these countries, paralelly with die offs of significant portions of the population from deceases and mini-wars, they like Asia will start automatically to invest in education, creating for a generation the same kind of bussiness niche - poor but educated workers... a condition attractive for the bussiness.

After Africa the global and totally globalized economy will not be able to sustain such pseudo-growth of canibalization of the labour and standard differencies in the different areas. Sustained development is imposible. It will take less than 100 years to be equalized the difference-potential of the different areas and the economical pressure to become comperativelly evenly distributed.

After that point if the mankind wants to keep with the present economical system it must start to grow in total. The GDP-growth should be backed up with population growth. The only 'endless' means of ensuring global DP growth of several percents would be the population to grow accordingly. The only way to house increasing number of people is to be produced new human-compatible environments = space colonisation. Non-growing economy is incompatible with capitalism and credit system.

karov · 2004-08-17 03:34:54

Then USA Industry and Government become more creative, not sit back and let the chinese catch up. What would happen , If russia and china combine talents in the space race , against the usa, " remember American doesn't make good team players in their own sandbox". I mean that china is trying to get access to the ISS if they don't what about Russia, China, Japan, and possible ESA build a secondary ISS, different design. That could happen !!!!
That would happen over the next 10 years then the race will be on for the moon and mars in the next twenty years.
Interesting turn of events could happen, and like the what happened with Puerto Rico and US Dream team ( Basketball ) the US Team go egg all over face, it could happen with space and the chinese would be the ones going it.

:laugh:

The Chinese relly entirelly upon old russian rockets technology. The same way as almost USA does.

I think that nowadays ONLY the representatives of the european circle ( Russia belongs to it!) and the neo-european one ( the First british empire - USA, the Second British Empire dominions - Canada, Australia, New Zealand...also in vast degree via the americanisation - Japan!!!...) has the plausible potential to develop technical solutions for cheaper space. The size of the chinese economy makes it real burden for them. Indeed they are able to invest lesser pecent of their GDP in R&D, and the fundamental science is dimmed in the shadow of the necesities - energy, food...

comstar03 · 2004-08-17 04:27:06

Karov,

On a USA Design Launch pad. But the Chinese are moving fast, when the tri-gorge power station comes online it will drive the chinese economy faster, and Don't believe that old tech is bad tech, you can pack new tech inside an old tech body, and fool your competitors. - Why would china buy docking equipement and support training equipment from russia , last year if they aren't going to build and dock in space !!!!!

Remember this culture has been around alot longer than Western Culture has, and don't think that chinese hasn't thought this out. because they have, and I can guarantee that by 2008, China will have a crew in orbit to display chinese growth in space, linked to the grow in chinese economy, and world position. ( Matter of Honor )

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-17 05:07:36

In addition to the much over-hyped nature of the Chinese space program (so far all they've done is copy Soyuz) China has two major problems looming on the horizon. First, their industry is not as independent as many people tend to think. For example, the "booming" Chinese steel industry depends in large part on imported ore due to the substandard quality of the ore mined in China. They are just as locked into the rest of the world's problems as we are. Then they have a growing demand for oil that will begin putting pressure on them.

But of greater significance is the demographic bomb the Chinese have made for themselves. All those population control measures that drove families to favor sons over daughters is going to result in a large population of lonely, frustrated Chinamen in short order. So if you're governing an authoritarian country facing industry grinding to a halt through lack of resources and a huge population of aggressive malcontents what do you do? Collapse... or war. Channel that energy and grab some goodies while you're at it.

The Chinese are going to have bigger things than their space program to worry about in the coming decades, as will we.

SpaceNut · 2004-08-17 05:31:39

But the one thing they have lots of is cheaper labor and american businesses love to farm out just about everything in order to make a buck.

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 08:10:20

Good points Cobra Commander, but China's so-called crunch will come years after their economy surpasses ours. They don't need to provide a better standard of living for their population before they pass us (russia never came close and was still a superpower).

By the time they have oil needs similar to ours, there will be even more alternatives to coal and oil, not to mention better improvements to alternatives we use today. If the trends of the past 20 years continue we will be getting t-shirts for hydrogen cells so to speak.

Economists are now saying that Chinas economy has so much momentum that even if the bubble should 'burst' in 20 years, they will need to have a depression on par with our 'Great Drepression' for us to catch up.

As Chinas standard of living continues to increase the revenue their government recieves increases as well. With a gross GDP twice ours (a realistic projection for 2025) they can spend the same measly .6% of their budget on space exploration and have $30B+ for their program to play with. If they continue to place a high priority on their space program, however, they could easily be spending 100B to our 15B.

Even if they are still using Soyez based rocketry at that time you still have an incredible amount of lift capacity to orbit. Things like martian colony ships traveling between Earth and Mars are very possible. At that time, the chinesse should have the ability to transport dozens of people a year to the red planet.

Many centuries ago China was poised to be the leading explorer and colonizer. Only isolationist policies stopped this. In short, if China hadn't stopped itself, there would likely be no Western culture to speak of. And now the sleeping giant is waking up....

SpaceNut · 2004-08-17 09:41:16

In 20 years, china will be a different nation due to the feeling of democracy and freedoms that will come from individuals that visit free nations. Just look at the changes that have occured to the old soviet block nations and to Russia.

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 09:56:28

Of coarse Spacenut. This is already happening. Exposure to the free world and western ideas is the main driving force behind the awakening China of today. China's leadership is getting younger and more ambitious. More importantly, they are asking, 'why can't we do that and better?'.

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-17 10:11:03

China's leadership is getting younger and more ambitious. More importantly, they are asking, 'why can't we do that and better?'.

Meanwhile their resources and political system are being increasingly strained and their population continues to move further out of balance.

So we have three possibilities here. China continues its current growth, which is unrealistic. China's government collapses under the weight of its own people clamoring for more of what they've been given a taste of from outside, or the Chinese leadership realizes what's happening, gets desperate and figures out the easy way to build up resources, reduce population pressures and provide an outlet for nationalistic, sexually frustrated young men. Only the first, unlikely scenario has any real hope of causing a Chinese renaissance in space and even then there are no guarantees.

China has a long way to go, and the game is completely ours to lose by our own actions.

John Creighton · 2004-08-17 10:13:22

I don`t remember the source but somewhere was told that the impresive economical growth of China (~7-8% per annum) is negativelly compensated almost double times ( minus 15% effectivelly per year) by the devastation of their environment.

I’m sceptical of these claims. China is building infrastructure (e.g. roads, internet hydrodams) and capital (factories and farm equipment). I am sure in the future that these gains will help China get more out of its land then any current environmental degradation cost. However, I doesn’t seem to me obvious that china will pass the US. If it is clearly a matter of people the united states can either have more children or accept more immigrants. However, with robotics, automation, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology and improved knowledge of various system dynamics I don’t think that people will be the major resource in the future economy. I think it will be land. The only question is will the land just be from the countries, will recourses from Antarctica or under the ocean be used or will we truly become a space faring species.

John Creighton · 2004-08-17 10:17:12

Meanwhile their resources and political system are being increasingly strained and their population continues to move further out of balance.
So we have three possibilities here. China continues its current growth, which is unrealistic. China's government collapses under the weight of its own people clamoring for more of what they've been given a taste of from outside, or the Chinese leadership realizes what's happening, gets desperate and figures out the easy way to build up resources, reduce population pressures and provide an outlet for nationalistic, sexually frustrated young men. Only the first, unlikely scenario has any real hope of causing a Chinese renaissance in space and even then there are no guarantees.
China has a long way to go, and the game is completely ours to lose by our own actions.

It is certainly a very large experiment in human psychology. We will se what happens. Although I would hate to live in an area with much less woman, look at some of the construction feets various groups of monks accomplished though history. Maybe most people don’t have the right psychological balance to be a monk. We will see what happens. BTW there are local alternatives to there sexual frustration. I think though, that companship is a much bigger need and lots of friends will suit that just fine.

wgc · 2004-08-17 10:40:38

In addition to the much over-hyped nature of the Chinese space program (so far all they've done is copy Soyuz) China has two major problems looming on the horizon. First, their industry is not as independent as many people tend to think. For example, the "booming" Chinese steel industry depends in large part on imported ore due to the substandard quality of the ore mined in China. They are just as locked into the rest of the world's problems as we are. Then they have a growing demand for oil that will begin putting pressure on them.
But of greater significance is the demographic bomb the Chinese have made for themselves. All those population control measures that drove families to favor sons over daughters is going to result in a large population of lonely, frustrated Chinamen in short order. So if you're governing an authoritarian country facing industry grinding to a halt through lack of resources and a huge population of aggressive malcontents what do you do? Collapse... or war. Channel that energy and grab some goodies while you're at it.
The Chinese are going to have bigger things than their space program to worry about in the coming decades, as will we.

I heard this discussion before, back in the 1970's. The talk was that Japan was going to be the dominent superpower of the 21th century.

Predictions are often wrong.

I'm going to make some wild predictions of my own.

Prediction 1: Within 25 years the US maybe with cooperation with the ESA will be on both the moon and mars.

Prediction 2: The technology we will use to get there hasn't been invented yet. And it won't be chemical. Antimatter triggered nuclear systems are one possible candidate but not the only.

Prediction 3: China will still be a minor space fariing nation. The major players will be ESA, USA and Russia. The US and Europe might combine there effort.

smurf975 · 2004-08-17 11:15:03

If the ratio of males in China is getting to high I think the Chinese government can really correct it easily. Just continue the one child policy but if you are pregnant and it’s a girl, then you can keep it.

---

However feeding this enormous population can be a problem. I wonder how India, who has almost the same size of population manages this.

BTW: Why is no one talking about India as a possible super power? They also have a booming economy (however not as great as China) and a stable and democratic government.

Anyway if China can't manage to feed their own people they could look into using Bangladesh as its food supplier (like the Romans used Egypt). China sends some of its engineers and money and builds dams for the Bangladesh people and now they can go happily farming and export to China using loans provided by the Chinese to buy modern farming equipment. The same counts for other developing nations between China and India.

---

Questions that I ask my self to see if a country has a chance to compete with the G7 countries:

1. Food, can the country feed it self? Or does it rely on imports?

2. Energy, is the energy grid in general as reliable as a pacemaker?

3. Politics, is the country stable? Not related to human rights, sometimes a strong dictatorship is better then a weak democracy. Are there internal conflicts or border conflicts if so how does it affect the countries economy and the security of the citizens?

4. Environmental, how does the country handle environmental problems caused by humans, such as deforestation and pollution?

5. Water, is there cheap and clean water for everyone?

6. Disasters caused by nature such as flooding, dryness, insect swarms and hurricanes. Are they prevented when possible and can the economy handle it if it can't be prevented such as a hurricane?

7. Education is it open to everyone and is the quality at least equal with general western standards?

8. Healthcare and disease prevention. Can the country handle (isolate) an outbreak and are the hospitals supplied with enough medicine and other stocks and is there a certain ratio of hospitals per 10.000 citizens?

9. Corruption, how high is it; can you do a successful business without dealing with corrupt officials?

10. Wealth, can citizens buy luxury goods that make life much more comfortable?

karov · 2004-08-17 13:06:46

Karov,

Remember this culture has been around alot longer than Western Culture has,

The Chinese culture as the oldest one?

NO, this is not true.

The chinese talk about 5000 years of uninterupted development, but every hystorian or archeologist will tell you that this is ridiculous. The culture which we call chinese was united under one and a same political will and consciuosness of common identity just in several instants in the history and everytime it was under external force. The present moment is not much different. What you are talking about is indeed a mithology which incrementaly arised in the wstern consciousness when the 18-19th century literate minds realised how numerous are they. Of course the nowaday chinese propaganda supports such vision on them. They accepted the entirelly western model of the national state and want to enforce it from top to the bottom.

China now just undergoes the consequential westernisation wave, the same way as 5-6 thousands of years ago with the horse domestication, the iron work, the import of the chinese religion, and the imposal of the common governmental script under the bloody rule of the non-chinese First emperor in 3th century BC...

deagleninja · 2004-08-17 14:26:28

Last time I checked, sexual tension actually drives progress not inhibits it. If there are more men than women, then what women are available have many more choices for mates. This means that successful and intelligent men are more likely to reproduce than your average joe.

Put another way, who is more liekly to win a woman's heart: a man that is sexist or a man that believes women are his equal?

Perhaps the imbalance of the sexes in China is a large part of why China is progressing so quickly?

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