Predictions for 2005

spaced_out_guy · 2004-08-08 11:22:40

I think that just as the iraq war dominated Free Chat in 2004, Peak Oil will dominate in 2005.

One more prediction: the price of oil will reach $70.

http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php] … t/news.php

PurduesUSAFguy · 2004-08-08 13:47:23

I'm going to offer a contrary prediction, Oil will hit 15 year low by this time next year. Siberian oil will start to hit the US market in a big way in the next year along with hopfully oil from the California coast and the Gulf of Mexico. Also its very likley that tar sands and oil shale extraction will come online soon after their false start in the late 70s.

~Eternal~ · 2004-08-08 15:09:09

Either a) Bush will delcare himself Caeser and their will be a communist revolution or b) Kerry makes a big speech about what he's going to do and only does half of it.

Martian Republic · 2004-08-08 15:40:33

Either a) Bush will delcare himself Caeser and their will be a communist revolution or b) Kerry makes a big speech about what he's going to do and only does half of it.

If it a free and fair election, John Kerry will probably win.

But, the other choice is probably closer to eternal's response.

Larry,

Trebuchet · 2004-08-08 19:56:57

Bush will win the election and people will bitch, complain, and make dire predictions, but nothing terribly interesting will happen domestically one way or the other. The economy will stagger drunkenly forward throughout 2005 in an unimpressive but satisfactory manner, and Iran will be bombed and/or invaded.

Counterprediction: If Kerry wins, the media will have orgasms of joy for about a week, then savage him mercilessly for four years, and the Republicans in Congress will make sure nothing terribly interesting will happen domestically one way or the other. People will bitch, complain, and make dire predictions about a Kerry administration, too - they'll just be different than the ones who would complain if Bush won. The economy will stagger drunkenly forward, and Iran will be bombed and/or invaded.

spaced_out_guy · 2004-08-08 21:15:11

You're joking right, USAFguy? There are no oil develpments on the California coast! Would take five years or so to develop from scratch, so no chance of oil hitting markets next year.

Ditto for Siberia.

As for oil shale, none of the oil companies I know of have any oil shale projects.

Tar sands will increase their production, but not nearly by enough http://www.energybulletin.net/1443.html … /1443.html

Only a mix of conservation, substitution, recession, and more production, will keep prices from exploding. :angry:

prometheusunbound · 2004-08-09 18:32:14

One more prediction: the price of oil will reach $70.

I sure hope that you mean BARREL not GALLON. (eyes his large SUV parked nearby a bit warily)

If it a free and fair election, John Kerry will probably win.

There will never be a entirely free and fair election. And I am suspecting the democrats will have something up their sleves also. I think Kerry will win, espically if bush keeps attacking kerrys war record. Bush is stupid, bringing up kerry's record in a way that can only garner more attention to his own, imho.

If bush wins, I predict he will resign on charges of corruption as the backlash will probably send the senate into democratic hands, and nothing will stop a full investigation into cheney/halliburton. And halliburton, unfortantly, has a rather long history of being in unethical positions.

If kerry wins, I predict Iraq will continue. His hands are tied, and the republicans will simply toy with him. What, really, can kerry do? He can't serroiusly leave Iraq, the invasion is a fait acompli. He can't remove halliburton's influence in the army; the miltary gets 85% of all non-munition supplys from them. And he can't get out of iraq to remove halliburton without allowing iraq to become a terrorist cesspool. Halliburton writes the rules for this war.

I think the economy will really, really improve up to the election point, then go into some doldrums.

Pakistan will become the Archduke Freindand when Musharaff is killed/deposed. God help us all if that ever happens. War between nuclear powers india, china, pakistan, and possibly russia, NK and at a time when we have no troops to spare. . . . .

All it takes for evil to suceed is for the good men to do nothing.

On a brighter note, I bet Burt Rutan starts commercial flights into space in 2005. Hooray for american innovation!

Euler · 2004-08-09 18:48:27

Pakistan will become the Archduke Freindand when Musharaff is killed/deposed. God help us all if that ever happens. War between nuclear powers india, china, pakistan, and possibly russia, NK and at a time when we have no troops to spare. . . . .

I can see India and Packistan clashing, but China will be more concerned with Taiwan, an they will probably stay out of it. Without chinese involvement, there is no reason for Russia or NK to get involved, so it will remain a regional conflict rather than becoming WWIII.

bolbuyk · 2004-08-10 09:13:56

I can't imagine NK will exist for long as it is yet. When Kim Il Jung dies, there will be changes due to international pressure and pressure from inside. The last of the stalinists will not survive.... :rant:

Beside that, I think a WWIII will more easily depart from a conflict around Palestine, drawing the US and the middle-east from each other. But still then, a WW cannot as easily be started with a spark as was the case in the 20th century.

Palomar · 2004-08-10 10:41:28

*Oil prices hit all-time record high, pushing gas prices at the pump to nearly $3.50 per gallon.

President (whoever it'll be) narrowly avoids assassination attempt.

Another terror strike involving airplanes or truck bombs on U.S. soil.

Terror strike on UK (as above).

Nuclear weapon detonated somewhere in the Middle East; U.S. blamed.

--Cindy

clark · 2004-08-10 11:19:51

Bush will win, by the narrowest of margines. Problems with electronic voting will cast a cloud over his second term.

India and Pakistan will continue open dialogue to resolve border issues and avoid nuclear confrontation.

Isreal will bomb Iran nuclear facilities.

North Korea will continue to draw out nuclear disarmament discussions towards the end of Bush's second term.

Oil prices will stabilize near the end of 2005, near $40 per barrel.

VSE will be fully funded.

SpaceNut · 2004-08-10 12:15:32

I like the last one on the VSE will be fully funded. I would add that a CEV be designed post haste.

But the first one of Bush will win, by the narrowest of margines.

Some would say he stole this current term though hanging chads, turning away voters and by other means a steal to the right to be in office.

As to the other positions on war on any front here or abroad, I would hope that someday we will all learn how to live together in peace as Earthlings someday wanting to become Martians in the not to far off distant future.

Smile on my face....

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-10 13:34:49

Having been re-elected by a significant margin, George W. Bush will give slightly too much emphasis to the "so help me God" added to the oath by every President since Washington at the inauguration. The post-election climate will be more polarized than ever, further driving a wedge through the heart of American civil discourse and reasoned debate.

We'll be back to paying $1.50 a gallon for gas. Most people will think it's great, but Cobra will remain annoyed at the high price and in a noble effort at conservation, will stop working Fridays again.

The situation in Iraq will continue to improve, though slowly. Every incident will continue to be cited as "proof" that the entire effort is an unmitigated failure.

Pressure will be exerted on Iran in the hopes that it will incite regime change from within. It won't work

Two, possibly three major plots will be foiled in the US, while one will be carried out but with lesser effects than intended. Terrorist attacks in the MidEast and Indonesia will increase in frequency as the terrorists turn to softer targets.

In the realm of manned spaceflight, nothing much of great significance will happen. In cases of orgasmic excitement over private suborbital flights, see preceding sentence.

Republicans will claim they are winning the war on terror. Democrats will claim the Administration is being too aggressive and alienating our allies, creating more terrorists and endangering America. Both will be wrong. Cobra's "compassionate fascism" will begin to gain traction among the exasperated, confused, frightened and irate masses.

We will get the first inkling of a major new disease threat, immune to traditional treatments and transmitted through casual contact. Some will panic and the media will feed SARS-based phobia, but there will be no connection.

Tensions around the world will continue to build and more nations will join the 'nuclear club.' When a situation with Pakistan is defused momentarily we will take solace in our belief that cataclysmic, civilization shattering wars are a thing of the past which we have outgrown, thus increasing the likelihood of our demise when that day comes.

Historically speaking we're overdue for a big turd, get ready for it...

Palomar · 2004-08-10 13:46:46

Both will be wrong. Cobra's "compassionate fascism" will begin to gain traction among the exasperated, confused, frightened and irate masses.

*Care to explain what "compassionate fascism" is? But that's a different thread. And we've seen where "compassionate conservatism" has gotten us (do I really want to ask?).

I think you're right about the nuclear club thing...and the new disease threat.

In the realm of manned spaceflight, nothing much of great significance will happen. In cases of orgasmic excitement over private suborbital flights, see preceding sentence.

--Cindy

Gennaro · 2004-08-10 13:47:02

Kerry will win by the tiniest margin. The quagmire in Iraq will continue and deepen.

The "war on terror" will gradually evaporate away, soon to be totally forgotten as the next big thing comes along to catch the media's attention.

Nothing else will happen.

Trebuchet · 2004-08-10 15:00:07

Continuing from my previous 2005 predictions...

Terrorists will not launch a successful attack in 2005. If they haven't launched one by the elections, their ability to do anything in the United States has been degraded to pointless levels, because they would have missed their best moment. If they do launch one before the elections, they're unlikely to attempt another attack for at least a year or two - they take their time between attacks. Either way, 2005 is safe.

Iraq will be moderately democratic and relatively stable during 2005. Strangely, the media will never see it coming.

No matter who wins, vague (and not-so-vague) rumors of screwing with the electronic voting machines will dog their steps through their presidency. Which is why I thought they were a bad move.

Alienation of the US from France and Germany will continue, even assuming Kerry wins, because it's being principally driven by the citizenry as a whole in the US.

The Kyoto treaty will continue to be a dead letter in Congress.

A new pope will have to be selected. The new pope will be from Africa or the Americas.

The Palestinian intifada will be completely done with sometime next year, and that particular sparkplug for conflict will be quiet... for a year or two, anyways.

North Korea will do something provocative and insane. If Bush is President, he will pat them on the head and more or less ignore whatever they do as a desperate cry for attention. I have no idea what Kerry would do.

BWhite · 2004-08-10 15:06:26

Sudan will be the new front in the war on radical Islam.

But for al Qaeda, the West could simply ignore Sudan despite whatever atrocities continue to occur (hardly a moral response but realistic). With al Qaeda, the West cannot allow another failed state possibly become a host for terrorists, like Afghanistan was.

Where the troops will come from to occupy Sudan, I do not know.

= = =

Edit:

Iraqi oil pipelines will continue to be vulnerable.

IMHO, they have not been hit all that hard thus far in the reconstruction because most of the major insurgent players have hope they can win.

Remove all hope for one or another insurgent group and oil pipeline attacks will increase.

Gennaro · 2004-08-10 15:27:49

Alienation of the US from France and Germany will continue, even assuming Kerry wins, because it's being principally driven by the citizenry as a whole in the US.

Hmm... and they will both have reason to ask, "why do they hate us?".

clark · 2004-08-10 15:28:04

To tell the truth here, I tend to do better at space related predictions (my crystal ball, or is it my one eyed hobo... I forget, only get's the sci-fi channel)

So, in that vein...

China will achieve a cis-lunar trip by 2008.

BWhite · 2004-08-10 15:36:24

China will achieve a cis-lunar trip by 2008.

God Bless!

That potential plot element is now public domain!

clark · 2004-08-10 15:40:23

:laugh:

Just enjoy the ride.

Euler · 2004-08-10 22:44:28

When a situation with Pakistan is defused momentarily we will take solace in our belief that cataclysmic, civilization shattering wars are a thing of the past which we have outgrown, thus increasing the likelihood of our demise when that day comes.
Historically speaking we're overdue for a big turd, get ready for it...

I am surprised that no one has brought up Taiwan yet. It seems to me that this is much more likely to start a world war than Pakistan. The current pro-independence president of Taiwan has said that he will attempt to change the constitution of Taiwan in 2005 or 2006 in order to grant Taiwan a greater degree of independence. China has said that if Taiwan declares independence, it will attack Taiwan. China has also been greatly improving it's navy in recent years, and is positioning missiles close to Taiwan. The US is obligated by law to defend Taiwan if China attacks. Other countries in the region such as Russia, Japan, India, Pakistan, and the Koreas could easily be drawn into such a war.

I don't think that war is inevitable, but it is certainly plausible. I give it about a 1 in 4 chance of starting a major war in the next 5 years.

bolbuyk · 2004-08-11 06:09:13

I don't think China will burn it's hands on that isle. They know the US likes that island and will not take the risk. Beside that, China will slowly realize that conquering that island is not more than saving some honour from earlier times, which is not a very constructive drive. Mao will change his position for some Gorbatsjov-like guy and then China starts to de-maoize. When Castro dies, communism will cease forever on this planet. :laugh:

I think some conflict potential to create a WWIII can only happen around Palestine, but not within 10 years. Sooner or later, some severe palestinian action will react Israel and then reactions from some countries which are at that time very angry.

Another possibility: Any American or Israelian, which don't agree to the international court, is captured and locked up in the Hague for trial. Despite insisting negotiations by US and UK the UN resists to free the guy. Some 3rd-generations WWII-victims in the Netherlands make troubles around the court and decided is that German and French troops assist Dutch troops to protect the court. US and UK make a airborne/seaborne invasion at Scheveningen beach and there....

(Seems intriguing to me, just don't hope this will happen, )

~Eternal~ · 2004-08-11 13:44:17

I take it everyone here who says Bush will win is either a) a Republican or b) Has not checked the latest polls.

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-11 15:04:24

I take it everyone here who says Bush will win is either a) a Republican or b) Has not checked the latest polls.

The election is three months away, polls are meaningless.

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