New Mars Forums

TwinBeam

Member

From: Chandler, AZ

Registered: 2004-01-14

Posts: 144

Re: Dream Lottery - A crooked scam for getting to Mars...

OK, this is a bit 'out there', but...
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"Hi! and welcome to Dream Lottery - the Lottery where YOUR Dreams CAN come true!!  Here's tonights slate of Possible Dreams...

45% - Cure Cancer   
22% - Mars Colony
15% - Cure Heart disease
8%   - Cure Alzheimers
5%   - Feed the Hungry
3%   - Life Extension
2%   - World Peace

"First, Carla, if you'll activate the Dream Picker?  And the winner of the big $100M donation is...."
"...Mars Mission!   Congratulations all you Mars dreamers!  As specified in the terms of the lottery, tonights winnings are being donated to the Mars Society to advance research and development towards the eventual establishment of a Mars colony. 
"And now, Carla, if you'll randomize the Lucky Dreamer Machine to see which of our Mars Dreamers will be taking home a share of the $10M dream jackpot?"
"Thanks Carla - and our numbers tonight are 4 2 17 8 11."
"Congratulations you Lucky Mars Dreamers! "

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The more tickets are bought for a goal, the higher the chance of that Dream winning.  The tallies would be posted continuously - and it'd quickly become a horse race between the top two or three dreams - because only those who "invest" in the winning dream have a chance to win the jackpot.  Naturally most will buy tickets for the popular Dreams.

Now, here's the scam... and if you don't tell people this is how it works, I think we can get away with it...  :;):

Every lottery is 100% fair and honest.  But every lottery will have a different mix of Dreams.  (And, BTW, in the long run your odds of winning any given amount of money are the same whether you pick a popular dream or less popular one - since if a less popular dream wins, there'll be fewer people splitting the jackpot.  That part is 100% honest too.)

The first and biggest trick is that "Mars" is included at all - i.e. we get to pick the Dreams (taking suggestions from the public, of course), and we make sure OUR Dream is often included.

The second trick is a bit sneakier.  Popular Dreams can be diluted - e.g. above, the common Dream of curing a major disease is diluted by listing several diseases.  This doesn't help us in any one lottery - but over time, the diluted choices are considered by naive players somewhat less "lucky", since they win less often, while the un-diluted Mars Dream is considered somewhat MORE lucky.

The last trick is rather subtle.  The mix of dreams will change for every lottery.  We'll freely admit that it's a mix of random and deliberate choices - "to keep it interesting, for example, after a Dream wins we leave it out for several lotteries, so the other Dreams have a fair chance".  People will develop favorite Dreams that have been "lucky" for them in the past.  So we'll include "Mars" a bit more often against less popular choices, increasing it's chances of being chosen, so that over time more and more people come to view "Mars" as a lucky choice and a popular Dream.  Because the more popular a dream is, the bigger chance it has of winning.

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"For me and Carla - Thank you and... Keeeeep Dreaming!" 

Rxke

Member

From: Belgium

Registered: 2003-11-03

Posts: 3,669

Re: Dream Lottery - A crooked scam for getting to Mars...

Heehee, funny scam, but anyone with some statistics background would see right through it (esp. the dividing up of similar stuff...)

...And write in to the local papers...

Anyhow, as someone stated: Lotteries are taxes for the mathematically challenged So you might get away with it...

Timeslicer

Member

From: Arizona

Registered: 2004-06-19

Posts: 27

Re: Dream Lottery - A crooked scam for getting to Mars...

Of course, there IS this little problem:

http://www.gambling-law-us.com/Federal- … law.htm]US gambling laws

Interesting to note that it isn't the lottery itself that appears to be illegal - it's any form of promotion or supporting communication other than word of mouth that appears to be illegal.  I believe it's worded so that even if you ran the lottery from another country, participants would technically be breaking the law if they used the mail or internet even to find out about it. 

There is a loop-hole for states.  So maybe one could get a license to run such a lottery for a state. 

But IANAL so don't take my word for it! 

Grypd

Member

From: Scotland, Europe

Registered: 2004-06-07

Posts: 1,879

Re: Dream Lottery - A crooked scam for getting to Mars...

The US has gambling laws but it does allow lotteries and if you can get people interested ie decent payouts would it not be possible to fund a mars program that way especially if it could be made international

Oh a further note these gambling laws dont apply to reservations hmmm interesting that

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Chan eil mi aig a bheil ùidh ann an gleidheadh an status quo; Tha mi airson cur às e.

Algol

Member

From: London

Registered: 2003-04-25

Posts: 196

Re: Dream Lottery - A crooked scam for getting to Mars...

you still need to get 30 - 50$bn........