Asteroid could hit Earth in 2019

Adrian · 2002-07-23 17:36:29

BBC News Online report. Apparently there's a real possibility that a 2km asteroid could hit Earth in 2019. Astronomers are currently calculating the orbit.

Byron · 2002-07-23 19:01:01

hmmm...wonder why I haven't heard about this in the American media...?

Anyhow, this particular asteroid swings in an orbit between Earth and Mars..and that got me thinking, what if that thing hit Mars instead? What kind of effect would it have? I'd imagine it'd thicken up the atmosphere a bit, stir up some "weather," but I wouldn't have any idea about whether it'd get warmer or colder..?? In any case...I'd rather for it to hit Mars (where they are no people..yet) than here on Earth, especially since we have little means to "defend" ourselves at this point in time....

B

Phobos · 2002-07-23 19:03:15

If it's orbit does in fact put in on or very near a collision course with Earth, it'll be interesting to see what kind of reactions it gets. It could derail a manned landing on Mars, but hey, we might develop other valuable space technologies in the process . What do you think would be our best option for neutralizing the threat if it is indeed one? Should we simply try to change its course or blow it into small pieces that would burn up in the atmosphere?

Byron · 2002-07-24 07:55:33

If it's orbit does in fact put in on or very near a collision course with Earth, it'll be interesting to see what kind of reactions it gets. It could derail a manned landing on Mars, but hey, we might develop other valuable space technologies in the process . What do you think would be our best option for neutralizing the threat if it is indeed one? Should we simply try to change its course or blow it into small pieces that would burn up in the atmosphere?

After poring my paper this morning, I still haven't found any mention of this asteroid...and my local newspaper is better than most...But, if repeated calculations do put the orbit on a close call with Earth in 16.5 years, yes, that's when you'll see the big "panic."

We would certainly see a dramatic interest in space, and with a 16-year lead time, I'm sure the world would attempt to put together a "diversion" mission. I don't think blowing it up with nukes is a great idea, as that would mean we'd have a bunch of smaller rocks to contend with. Some of you might lynch me for saying this, but I wouldn't be opposed to nudging it *just* enough to slam it into Mars (since it passes so close to it anyway), therefore eliminating the threat to Earth althogether.

The bonanza of data from an asteroid impact on Mars would be nothing short of astonishing, magnitudes greater than the Shoemaker-Levy impact upon Jupiter in July 1994. (remember that?!?) We would see for the first time what a 2km object moving at tremendous velocities will do to a "terrestrial" world, and since scientific discovery is predicated on studying change, the changes generated on Mars by such an impact would amount to a "tidal wave" of discovery. The tremendous amount of regolith thrown up by the impact will give us a wide-open view of what's beneath the surface, whether water abounds, etc. We would see how it effects the Martian climate, and what kind of long-range effects it would have...great for us here on Earth as we attempt to learn more about our own climate.

As an added bonus, the impact could very well increase the thickness of the atmosphere, making it at least a bit more hospitable for visits and eventual settlement by humans.

All you "reds" out there, feel free to fire away If it comes down to it, if I had the choice of that thing hitting Earth or Mars, I'm going to pick Mars, and so will 99.999 percent of the world's population, and Mars has been hit by big rocks before in the past, so what's the harm in "causing" it to happen when we "need" it to happen? We need to learn as much as we can about both Earth and Mars, so we can better take care of ourselves in the future, and such a project would be indeed the biggest science experiment of all time. Besides, a dramatic asteroid impact on Mars would generate so much public interest in that world that continued government funding for further exploration of Mars would be almost a certainty....

Just something to think about...

B

Bill White · 2002-07-24 13:28:22

The story is on Reuters and at Yahoo News. My Yahoo home page links me to science news via Reuters and the Reuters link referred me to the BBC article Adrian apparently saw.

I predict it will be in the print media tomorrow - 25 July. The Chicago Tribune is usually 24 hours behind Yahoo / BBC / Reuters / CNN so I now only "read the papers" for commentary and entertainment.

The wire services report the asteroid was spotted 5 July 2002 and the "margins of error" in calculating trajectories remain signficant. *IF* it were to strike the Earth the date would be 1 Feb 2019 but determining how close it will come on that day will require much further observation.

Apparently, it could pass on either side of Earth or it could strike Earth.

If you sold planetary insurance and the odds of a strike were 1 in 10 million, how much of a premium would you charge to issue an insurance policy for the net value of all human life on Earth?

Just wondering. . .

nirgal · 2002-07-24 15:07:14

This may sound insane but I almost hope that it is on a direct collision course with earth. Just imagine the impact this would have on NASA's budget! We'd be out of LEO agin within three years at the latest and probably fly a lot of robotic and manned missions to that asteroid to investigate it thoroughly before making a decision about how to properly deal with it. It would certainly get the general public interested in space again!

Ryjaz · 2002-07-25 10:10:09

If nothing else I would love to see this story help push into the public's awareness of asteroids and collisions in hopes that congress will help fund more research into this. Currently there is no space based telescope dedicated to tracking asteroids. I am a firm believer that this is a bad thing. With any luck this will help push into NASA or the DoD's budget some more funding for asteroids research.

A nice radio telescope on the far side of the moon would be ideal!

Josh Cryer · 2002-07-25 14:53:51

See, that's the thing, though. And that's what I don't understand.

Even if you have the ablity to detect asteroids before they hit, what's the point if you don't have the capablity to prevent them from hitting? It's kind of an astronomical masochism, in my opinion.

The assumption is that we'll think of something ad hoc and magically prevent a catastrophe. I think the assumption that you can do something like this ad hoc is a catastrophe...

Palomar · 2002-07-25 15:34:59

*Just saw this at Yahoo! News:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tm....id_dc_4

--Cindy

P.S.: Btw, shouldn't they be able ::now:: to calculate *where* on Earth this stink-bug might hit, factoring in Earth's rotation, etc.? They probably wouldn't tell us, anyway.

Phobos · 2002-07-25 18:17:56

All you "reds" out there, feel free to fire away If it comes down to it, if I had the choice of that thing hitting Earth or Mars, I'm going to pick Mars, and so will 99.999 percent of the world's population, and Mars has been hit by big rocks before in the past, so what's the harm in "causing" it to happen when we "need" it to happen? We need to learn as much as we can about both Earth and Mars, so we can better take care of ourselves in the future, and such a project would be indeed the biggest science experiment of all time. Besides, a dramatic asteroid impact on Mars would generate so much public interest in that world that continued government funding for further exploration of Mars would be almost a certainty....
Just something to think about...
B

Good point about slamming the asteroid into Mars. I imagine there'd be no problem convincing the public to fund asteroid detection/aversion programs after we see how savagely a 2km wide asteroid mauls Mars. Yeah, and it's better Mars than Earth. The radical of the radical environmentalists who might oppose attempts to steer the asteroid would have one hell of an eco-disaster to deal with on Earth if they got their way!

Even if you have the ablity to detect asteroids before they hit, what's the point if you don't have the capablity to prevent them from hitting? It's kind of an astronomical masochism, in my opinion.

lol, quote of the day. I think there is some deep masochistic desire for an asteroid to smack Earth in a lot of people considering how popular disaster type movies can be. Or maybe the thought of an asteroid completely wiping out civilization would just be a nice change of pace.

.

Josh Cryer · 2002-07-25 19:51:25

Cindy, as of now, it looks like it's going to miss Earth by 4.5 Earth radii. Which is a close call, considering the size of the object. And this doesn't take into consideration any gravitational changes that could (and most likely will) occur between now and then.

Here's NASA's ?offical page? about it: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2002nt7.html

Given that it's only a Torino Scale of 1, we shouldn't be too worried, but I suspect that may go up to 2 or 3 as time progresses.

I read a recent thing about how asteroids are more common than we before thought. And I personally think we're due for another large hit any time soon.

About the impacting a asteroid into Mars: I say, sure, if it actually means detering it from running into Earth, do whatever you can. And if doing that would be the most feasible solution, by all means. But to slam an asteroid into Mars without any sufficient reason like that, would be a major waste. We'll always have time to study a dynamic Mars. We won't always have the chance to study a relatively dormat... dead, Mars.

Plus, what would happen to the pyramids and face at Cydonia if we were to do that!? Heheh

C M Edwards · 2002-07-26 07:00:31

This particular asteroid is one of many such close passing asteroids known. I wonder what would be required to go visit one? The computed relative velocities at impact are very high, but about 10km/s of that is due to the pull of Earth's own gravity.

The pass will be within 30000km, lower than geosynchronous orbit. You'd think we could get a probe to run alongside, no problem.

Hmm...

CME

Palomar · 2002-07-26 07:22:04

*If my dreams last night are any indication, this news story must be getting to me; it probably doesn't help that I've also been reading _The Star_ by H.G. Wells. Don't worry, I won't share dreams often here, okay? Last night I dreamt I was standing outside my childhood home, with some people I didn't recognize, star gazing. Someone noticed what s/he thought was a meteor. I thought it was an airplane; its light and movement were too consistent. A few minutes later a meteor did streak through the sky, and whistled as it did so. Next thing we knew, an exact duplicate of our full moon was hanging in the sky, next to the real one...except that the duplicate was smaller and like a mirror-image to the real one, i.e. its features were positioned opposite to the moon's features. We felt fear and uncertainly; what could this mean? It was sinister.

We then discovered that a lady [a real, living person from back home] I never liked had staged all this stuff; pure fakery. She was laughing and deriding us; I was so angry with her that I began smacking and slapping her [and no, I'm not a violent person and I've never been in a physical altercation].

Geez.

--Cindy

Palomar · 2002-07-26 07:41:16

Even if you have the ablity to detect asteroids before they hit, what's the point if you don't have the capablity to prevent them from hitting? It's kind of an astronomical masochism, in my opinion.
lol, quote of the day. I think there is some deep masochistic desire for an asteroid to smack Earth in a lot of people considering how popular disaster type movies can be. Or maybe the thought of an asteroid completely wiping out civilization would just be a nice change of pace.

.

*In this context, I'd say masochistic and ::sadistic::. I don't mean to go off-topic, but you guys raise a good point: As far as the masochistic element goes, it likely relates to Carl G. Jung's idea of the death wish; in this case, something of a semi-collective death wish [I say "semi-collective" because not everyone shares in it]. It could be related to the sadistic death wish, i.e. such as all the religious "prophecies" of The End of The World wherein relates a sinister, evil figure of a differing religion as the leader who ushers in The End of The World [as opposed to a natural catastrophe]: The chosen get rescued or are spared whatever ill befalls the rest of humanity.

It would seem misanthropy is a little all-too-human, for many.

--Cindy

Phobos · 2002-07-26 18:58:06

*In this context, I'd say masochistic and ::sadistic::. I don't mean to go off-topic, but you guys raise a good point: As far as the masochistic element goes, it likely relates to Carl G. Jung's idea of the death wish; in this case, something of a semi-collective death wish [I say "semi-collective" because not everyone shares in it]. It could be related to the sadistic death wish, i.e. such as all the religious "prophecies" of The End of The World wherein relates a sinister, evil figure of a differing religion as the leader who ushers in The End of The World [as opposed to a natural catastrophe]: The chosen get rescued or are spared whatever ill befalls the rest of humanity.
It would seem misanthropy is a little all-too-human, for many.
--Cindy

I don't know if you've read Joseph Campbell's books on mythology or not, but he touches a lot on archtypical motifs in the collective subconscious that become manifest in our mythologies. It's uncanny how almost every religion in the world that spawned in agrarian civilizations has some kind of "impossibly good" character that is killed mercilessly and then is resurrected in some way. Anyways, I think your right about sadism/masochism, the subconcious seems overly occupied with death and sex.

Shaun Barrett · 2002-07-29 06:08:08

I tend to side with Nirgal when he says he hopes this asteroid really is on a collision course with Earth. Or at least I hope they THINK it is right up until about 2015, and then find it's going to miss by a comfortable margin.
This is pure mischief on my part, I admit, but it comes from too many years of talking about space to too many people who treat it as a joke.
The number of times I've spoken about Mars, the asteroid menace, space elevators, etc. only to see that familiar pitying smile and hear some inane cliche about "all that flying around in space stuff"! Virtually never have I heard an intelligent comment or an interested question. The attitude is almost universal that THIS is the REAL world, down here on good old Terra Firma. Space is a way-out subject, of no relevance to human affairs, and best left to those scientist boffins in white coats and other, similarly amusing eccentrics.
Sometimes it drives me crazy! I feel like shaking these people and telling them to wake up! They think their day at the office is more real than the prospect of a projectile carrying the energy of 10 million hydrogen bombs slamming into our only cosmic lifeboat. Such an impact is very rare, I admit. But to show no interest at all in the sheer mind-boggling power of it, to have not a single intelligent question to ask about it, and to dismiss it out of hand as a topic unworthy of discussion by "sensible people", is beyond my comprehension! And that is what the great majority of people are like ... like ants scurrying around on the sidewalk by the Empire State building, oblivious to the greater reality going on just above their heads!
Wouldn't it be delicious for once to see real concern in these people's eyes about something outside their immediate cosy little world. To see them emerge from their cocoon of false security and finally realise that space is REAL ... that it CAN affect THEM!! That we need to understand it and become adept at controlling some aspects of it if we want to be at least moderately sure of surviving.
Imagine what we would achieve in space over the next 13 years if we all thought our lives depended on it! We might even learn to stop shooting at each other and concentrate on shooting the asteroid.
I know it's evil of me to want this ... but if it shakes the majority of us out of our small-minded complacency, and no harm comes of it, it will be worth it!
End of rant !! I feel better now! (Huh? ... Yeh, I know ... three Hail Marys and two Our Fathers .... ! )

Bill White · 2002-07-29 07:13:35

I don't know if you've read Joseph Campbell's books on mythology or not, but he touches a lot on archtypical motifs in the collective subconscious that become manifest in our mythologies.

Impossible fantasy sports match-ups are often touted - such as Phil Jackson's Chicago Bulls basketball teams versus Phil Jackson's LA Lakers basketball teams.

Anyway, an intellectual encounter I will never get to see or hear would be an extended conversation between Joseph Campbell and Carl Sagan.

Campbell's writings are - at times - over the top, yet he does present a pretty good case that our religious heritage is far more valuable than mere refuse to be discarded as quickly as possible.

Christina · 2002-07-29 10:19:28

Nah, it's down to highly unlikely now

Nasa's risk list has the first big nasty as 2080 now.

Palomar · 2002-07-29 14:58:58

Sometimes it drives me crazy! I feel like shaking these people and telling them to wake up! They think their day at the office is more real than the prospect of a projectile carrying the energy of 10 million hydrogen bombs slamming into our only cosmic lifeboat. Such an impact is very rare, I admit. But to show no interest at all in the sheer mind-boggling power of it, to have not a single intelligent question to ask about it, and to dismiss it out of hand as a topic unworthy of discussion by "sensible people", is beyond my comprehension! And that is what the great majority of people are like ... like ants scurrying around on the sidewalk by the Empire State building, oblivious to the greater reality going on just above their heads!

*My father often told me, "Most people only worry about what they can put in their wallets and their mouths TODAY."

It seems to me some sort of pathological near-sightedness and small-mindedness which afflicts a great majority of the human population.

Yeah, someday THE wake-up call might come...

--Cindy

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