Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

C M Edwards · 2004-05-12 09:38:01

I've been reading Frank W. Crossman's paper, ”Building Earth's Ark to Mars - Another Strategy for the Mars Society”, in the book _On to Mars: Colonizing a New World_. The article includes a call to Mars Society members to begin their own projects, on a volunteer basis, for research and development of critical systems and mission architecture for the colonization of Mars. He also advocates the progressive use of interest bearing investments to raise money for projects as being superior to constantly relying on outside investors. (See Clifford McMurray's article in the same book for a more detailed discussion). He employs some unnecessary romanticism in his discussion of selection criteria; however, I think that his main points are realistic. Relying on our own labor over time rather than seeking enough money to buy quick gratification, the Mars Society could advance its goals. The time scales required are longer than the organization's current grant & sponsor oriented financing, but sustainable results become more certain. It's just a question of which one we prefer: results or returns. (A plan that gets us to Mars in one year has a faster return than one that gets us there in ten, but they both have the same result.)

Amateur science is my hobby. Engineering may have been regulated to the point where only licensed professionals are allowed to practice it, but important scientific research can still be performed by twelve year old nerds studying ice cubes in their kitchen freezer. In dealing with others with similar interests, I've learned not to evaluate anyone's observational abilities and technical skills based on who their employer is. I have no problem believing that everyone in the Mars Society is capable of doing original research on a topic that could provide knowledge directly applicable to the colonization of Mars, without a vast budget or a new job. There's also a lot of well developed technical expertise floating around here (professionals AND amateurs), and many of us are capable of the development of actual infrastructure useful for interplanetary colonization.

“It's rocket science” is a description, not an excuse. With the exception of proprietary information (which, thanks to growth of the field of rocketry, is no longer an insurmountable obstacle), there is no information that an aerospace engineer knows that you personally cannot learn and use. This applies to any technical information that you will ever encounter in your life. You just have to be willing to invest the effort necessary to obtain the knowledge and assure your grasp of it. You can't ever let ignorance scare you off. Just find something you're interested in enough to work on, reach down into yourself for the strength to admit “I don't know crap about that”, and get to work finding crap out. Do you want to know if useful amounts of food can be grown on Mars? There are experiments you, personally, can run to find out. Do you want to know how to build an orbital launch vehicle? Somewhere, someone knows how, and thus you can, too.

The members of the Mars Society can go a long way toward getting people to Mars by donating their own labor and resources to make it happen. You don't have to work on a schedule, or even spend much money. Just find something that needs doing or studying in order to get people to Mars, find out if you can do it, and then do it. Make Mr. Crossman proud -- do your own R&D. Believe me, you're able.

We could do this. All that is required is the commitment.

Ian Flint · 2004-05-12 09:54:15

I read that paper, too. Loved it!

The one thing I didn't like was that he didn't want to spend any of the interest until the fund was mature. I have played with some numbers on my spreadsheet and I like the idea of spending half the interest and reinvesting the rest. Doing it like this would make the venture perpetual. The principal would never ever be touched and it would grow. With this perpetual investment, the venture could be not only for exploration but also for colonization. Now, where do we get the seed capital?

C M Edwards · 2004-05-12 13:47:44

Now, where do we get the seed capital?

How many Mars Society members are there?

Assuming use of the Mars Society staff as a free-of-charge financial agent (no tapping the fund), with 20% compliance among members, how much of a donation per member could raise $10000 US?

Cobra Commander · 2004-05-12 14:14:57

The idea has merit.

Even more than the raw financial, engineering and scientific expertise/passable competence that can be found within the Mars Society itself is the fact that if such a program began to progress far enough that other people came to understand that we're serious, even more outside support could be expected.

Hey, I'll funnel money, time and effort in for a chance to go to Mars one-way on a rocket built by amateurs from off-the-shelf components.

It's borderline insane, but it's certainly achievable. That's where greatness happens. Or people get killed. On to Mars, assuming there's an ample weight allowance for duct tape.

GCNRevenger · 2004-05-12 14:39:06

Must... resist... urge... to rain... on parade...

There is a minimum of hardware that is needed to make a Mars mission fly; you do need a fairly large launcher to get a vehicle with the volume, LSS, surface gear, and landing mechanisms to Mars. This is outside the reach of any home-build contraption... somthing like the Falcon-V would be the dead (no really, if you don't have somthing this size you will be) minimum.

Research is also pretty expensive. It costs quite a bit of money... there is wisdom in waiting to make a MarSoc "basic research institute" until any seed money becomes self-sustaining. Need to make somthing out of Titanium to save weight? Custom computer controller? Rocket engine? Nuclear power source? These things will cost money, and I don't see garage research making much of a dent in the engineering, which is the real hurdle since most of the technology is already at hand.

Cobra Commander · 2004-05-12 14:49:54

Must... resist... urge... to rain... on parade...

Yeah, I know.

But it's a nice thought, and much can still be accomplished in this manner. The approach can't take us all the way, but it can take steps. We can't build a Mars rocket single handedly, but I suspect a surprising amount of hardware could be built and tested. Lots of bugs to work out.

Bill White · 2004-05-12 15:10:06

Last year I floated loose ideas for a First Steps Endowment Fund. Money is accumulated by donation and paid to the mother of the first child conceived and born on Mars. Survival until a given age (1 terran year?) has advantages and demerits.

Anyway, assignments of the pay-out would be allowed (a woman signs over her rigths to a development company) subject to transparent and reasonable rules to prevent abuse.

The money grows untouched until paid out. No touching it early.

Since substantial infrastructure would be needed to accomplish this, it avoids a "flags and footprints" style mission to win the prize and at say 8% interest, after a few decades, or more than a century, the prize could start getting very, very large quickly..

idiom · 2004-05-12 16:20:22

Flight hardware is different to prototype hardware.

If it only needs to be built of titanium for weight advantage, make it out of steel and expect it to do less.

Concepts can be proved without going full scale, or getting to within specific weights.

The effects of prolonged artifical gravity could be tested on earth fairly cheaply for example. Zubrin proofed the Mars-atmosphere>propellant gizmo for a pitance.

In missionary school there was similar thread of thought... You could learn language interpretaion, translation and basic education and go into the jungle... or you could go to business school, learn entreprenurship, become uber-rich and fund other missionaries. Both were equally valued and simply applied to different people depending on their talents.

Home-grown financing isn't to hard... it just means you personally have to concentrate on Mars less and on making money for a while.

Bill White · 2004-05-12 16:34:15

In missionary school there was similar thread of thought...

? ? ?

idiom · 2004-05-12 16:51:40

I went to missionary school and God told me I should go to Mars with you lot.

Ian Flint · 2004-05-12 17:00:27

See everybody...God wants us to go to Mars. Just send any donation that you can spare to the number on your screen:

1-800-MARSGOD

Bless you.

I found our seed money!

idiom · 2004-05-12 17:11:27

Your seed money and then some. Even the DH-1's first major customer was the church.

Genesis-tower of Babel.... God got really annoyed because everybody hung around in the same place. Acts 8-1 God got really annoyed because everybody hung out in the same place.

You need to have a really deep motivation if you want this project to really fly. Bacteria and rocks don't spark the popular imagination.

Ian Flint · 2004-05-12 17:24:34

Assuming use of the Mars Society staff as a free-of-charge financial agent (no tapping the fund), with 20% compliance among members, how much of a donation per member could raise $10000 US?

The Mars Society has about 6000 members right now. The regular member dues are $50 per year. At 20% compliance it would only take 10 dollars per person once to get over $10,000. Now to reach something more substantial, like one million dollars, it would take $833.43 per person. So $100 per year for ten years would be doable.

Now if these donations were managed like personal investments you could attract a lot more donors. Here's how it would work:

1. Each investor gets his/her own account.
2. The account is invested in a diversified portfolio.
3. Half the yearly interest is used to further the cause of Mars exploration/colonization.
4. The other half is reinvested in that person's account.
5. If the investor ever feels like the funds aren't being used well he/she can close the account and take home the principal with interest.

This setup would keep the account managers/project managers in line since the investors could take their money if not satisfied. It would also encourage people to invest for the same reasons. The benefit to the investor would be the satisfaction of helping to move a great project along. Also the investors could get their names (or their company's names) mentioned just like any other sponsorship. Other benefits could be given to faithful investors, like maybe a drawing for a trip to Mars.

C M Edwards · 2004-05-12 21:26:03

So far, Mars Society membership has grown roughly linearly by about 1000 members per year since 1998. It should have roughly 6500 members now, and this formula projects it will have roughly 7000 members by this year's end.

If we took $1.00 US from the dues of each renewing member and each new member starting in January 2005, depositing it in an account earning 5% interest, we would accrue $100000 US from a starting balance of zero in eight years. (This assumes membership increased at a constant rate to 15000 members in 2013.) In sixteen years we would reach $350000, and after twenty-seven years, one million dollars.

That compares poorly with the overall cost of projects like the analog stations, but could be accomplished with no initial investment and relatively meager interest, using just 2% of membership dues. With 4% to 6% of the dues, you could fund several small projects, provided you were willing to wait five years for each.

Regarding the quality of amateur research, no, it isn't always of the same caliber as an R&D program funded by a big corporation bent on profit any more than interest accrual over time is necessarily superior to rapid funding by a profit driven sponsor. However, it does work, even if slowly, and in many fields it's the only thing flying. When you find a big name sponsor willing to fund research in those areas where amateur research currently holds sway, be sure to let us know.

I should point out that while no one can know everything, the whole 7000 and growing of the Mars Society can know a lot. Individually, we're small, but we can think and act together and that makes us big.

I should also point out that if you know how, it's always cheaper to build your own. Colonization will involve mass production as much as R&D. The Mars Society should consider how to get in on that just as much as how to conduct preliminary research.

deagleninja · 2004-05-13 05:52:02

Hmmm, the average couch in America has $1.45 hidden in it. If every member of the Mars Society donated their couch money that comes to $10,150. Now say we are shooting for a 2020 launch and the Mars Society continues to grow at 1,000 peoples a year, that comes to an additional $21,750 or $31,900 total. However, incomes should increase over the next 15 years quite a bit so naturally the 'couch-savings' will increase as well. Let's assume a 5% yearly increase in the couch-savings plan over the next 15 years....wait, what if we don't use change in the next 15 years?

Come on guys, you think I'm a dreamer and you want to go to Mars on an investment plan based on 7000 Mars Society members.... ???

idiom · 2004-05-13 15:01:40

What we need is like... 10 properly rich Mars Society members.

Donations for serious work should start at 7 figures... And then you hire someone who knows what they are doing to invest it. A Mars Trust is a good idea but it has to be huge.

A trust fund doesn't have to be too big before its generating $10K per month or per week.

$10K per week... The Mars society could do anything with a garunteed income like that.

C M Edwards · 2004-05-14 09:14:31

We don't need any "properly rich" Mars Society members. (Though all are welcome! :;): ) Donations of any size greater than $1.00 can be put to use if we can get enough of them. A trust fund would not need to start out relatively large -- $200000, or about 5% to 10% of the overall cost of a Mars Analog Research Station, will do nicely for small projects. We can raise that kind of money -- the Mars Society has already secured sponsorships for at least 20 times that amount in less than 5 years. There's no need to be chasing any Mars Society member around with our hands out.

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#1 2004-05-12 09:38:01

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#2 2004-05-12 09:54:15

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#3 2004-05-12 13:47:44

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#4 2004-05-12 14:14:57

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#5 2004-05-12 14:39:06

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#6 2004-05-12 14:49:54

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#7 2004-05-12 15:10:06

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#8 2004-05-12 16:20:22

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#9 2004-05-12 16:34:15

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#10 2004-05-12 16:51:40

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#11 2004-05-12 17:00:27

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#12 2004-05-12 17:11:27

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#13 2004-05-12 17:24:34

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#14 2004-05-12 21:26:03

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#15 2004-05-13 05:52:02

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#16 2004-05-13 15:01:40

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

#17 2004-05-14 09:14:31

Re: Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately?

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