This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

GOM · 2002-06-26 10:55:28

the Mars Direct price tag would be only $10,000,000.00?!

If that's the case, what are we waiting for?

I heard him on the radio last night with Richard Hoagland. It was a great show, but that number is bothering me. I know NASA's budget for a Mars trip was grossly over-inflated at something like $400 million, but $10 million seems pretty cheap.

Any help on this would be appreciated.

Thanks.

Byron · 2002-06-26 14:23:35

I think they were talking about billions instead of millions... ...But 10 bill would still be a tremendous bargain compared to 400 billion...lol. I know $10 billion is a lot of money by anyone's standards, but if a mission to Mars could be accomplished on that kind of budget, it could be done sooner rather than later or even never, even if the money has to be raised by private means.

B

Dayton3 · 2002-06-27 09:20:51

In his book, "The Case For Mars", Dr. Zubrin explained clearly that private industry could probably launch a manned Mars mission for only 3 to 5 billion.

As Dr. Zubrin said, in the real world, you can buy a lot with a billion dollars.

I wonder if the government offered 10 billion dollars ( with whatever money they didn't use being pure profit) to the first company to put a manned team on Mars if a consortium of Lockheed/Martin, Boeing, and few other large aerospace companies might be willing to give it a shot?

GOM · 2002-06-27 09:47:16

I think they were talking about billions instead of millions...

hahaha

Thanks for the correction!

quasar777 · 2002-06-30 10:16:10

well lessee, so far i`ve heard 30 bil, 50 bil, & now, ca ching 10 bil.

John_Frazer · 2002-07-11 22:42:26

well lessee, so far i`ve heard 30 bil, 50 bil, & now, ca ching 10 bil.

In private, it can be speculated that a mission could be done for even less. Maybe 5 bil or even 2. This is the price of the hardware at rock-bottom, with no inflated overhead, no mistakes, no fat. Who knows if this includes pay for the crew and everything else which goes on during the mission.

They say an elephant is a mouse built to government specifications. I'd say a diplodocus is the NASA version.
* Remember that McDonnel Douglass & the BMDO build the DC-X vehicle testbed in 6 months, for under 60 million. (that's million)
* Rutan & Scaled Composites built the Voyager (Round the world unrefueled airplane) for something like $3 million. Estimates for the typical government aerospace/defense contractor cost would be more like $150 million.
* Just after the start of Desert Storm, the USAF put out a request for a earth-penetrating "Bunker Buster". Less than 1 month later, the GBU-28 saw combat action!

OTOH, there's the example of the "Space Pen":
During the early days of manned spaceflight, they had to come up with a way to let astronauts take notes and mark checklists in space -in zero-G, ink won't flow down to the nib of a pen.
They spent $70 million, and developed the space pen. It's amazing: Writes upside down or in zero-G, writes under water or bleach or oil, writes on glass or anything else.
The russians used a pencil.

At the first Mars Society convention, former Gemini & Apollo astronaut John Young gave a talk. I don't remember what his topic was, but he glanced past solar panels.
The solar panels on Mir or Skylab or most satellites are great; Unfold them, point them at the Sun, and you've got power.
He said that the ISS has solar panels, too. Do you know what they need to produce power?

Software.

Phobos · 2002-07-12 00:20:14

They say an elephant is a mouse built to government specifications. I'd say a diplodocus is the NASA version.
* Remember that McDonnel Douglass & the BMDO build the DC-X vehicle testbed in 6 months, for under 60 million. (that's million)
* Rutan & Scaled Composites built the Voyager (Round the world unrefueled airplane) for something like $3 million. Estimates for the typical government aerospace/defense contractor cost would be more like $150 million.
* Just after the start of Desert Storm, the USAF put out a request for a earth-penetrating "Bunker Buster". Less than 1 month later, the GBU-28 saw combat action!

Thinking that the gov't could produce the Voyager airplane for a mere three million is like meditating on the sound of one hand clapping. It would probably cost three million dollars just for the government to type up the proposals and send them off to dozens of officials, most of whom would probably be irrelevant anyway. I think one of the problems with government agencies like NASA is that they're having something of a hard time learning how to be economical when they've always had the deep pockets of the government to draw from in the past. Just look at that monstrous 400 billion dollar Mars mission they designed in the late 80s. Sheesh, you'd think with all of that brainpower they'd try to think of cheaper ways to pull it off! But at least they're learning to be a little more economical since their budgets have undergone the axe in the last decade or so.

Byron · 2002-07-12 06:07:49

OTOH, there's the example of the "Space Pen":
During the early days of manned spaceflight, they had to come up with a way to let astronauts take notes and mark checklists in space -in zero-G, ink won't flow down to the nib of a pen.
They spent $70 million, and developed the space pen. It's amazing: Writes upside down or in zero-G, writes under water or bleach or oil, writes on glass or anything else.
The russians used a pencil.

LOLOL....you gotta love that one... This is a PRIME example of why the principle of "Occam's Razor" (simplest solution is often the best) needs to be kept at the forefront of human endeavor....

B

Phobos · 2002-07-12 21:45:25

LOLOL....you gotta love that one... This is a PRIME example of why the principle of "Occam's Razor" (simplest solution is often the best) needs to be kept at the forefront of human endeavor....

How on Earth do you spend 70 million dollars working on a stupid pen design? Did they launch missions into orbit with the sole purpose of testing this thing out or something? I bet most of the people in this forum could come up with pens that do the same thing and not spend more than 20 bucks on the parts! They might even come up with high tech ideas like using pencils!

HeloTeacher · 2002-07-13 03:38:49

Having worked in the federal government (military) I have seen how the budgeting and financial planning is done. It doesn't matter how some poor slob in NASA saves money on his particular area of responsibility. If he reduces the money he uses, the agency will lose that money nest year, so the best incentive is to demand as much money as possible from government and then be dammed sure you spend it.

This is why government programs cannot be as economical as private programs and wackos (in a good way) like us are in a better position to do things cheaply.

Byron · 2002-07-13 07:59:20

Having worked in the federal government (military) I have seen how the budgeting and financial planning is done. It doesn't matter how some poor slob in NASA saves money on his particular area of responsibility. If he reduces the money he uses, the agency will lose that money nest year, so the best incentive is to demand as much money as possible from government and then be dammed sure you spend it.
This is why government programs cannot be as economical as private programs and wackos (in a good way) like us are in a better position to do things cheaply.

I've had the privilage (if one could ever call it that ??? ) of working with a local government agency, and it's absolutely no different than you've described...spend what you have, and then some, as to demonstrate a "need" for even more money. If it's not your money, why scrimp and save? There's always more to be had. Especially when you have the *public* more than willing to finance your free-spending ways, even in the face of abysmal results...that's the thing I have difficulty understanding the most of all...

B

Shaun Barrett · 2002-07-16 01:17:50

"... more than willing to finance .." free-spending government departments?
You mean as in more than willing to pay exorbitant taxes?!!
I thought I was a member of the *public*, but I'm not a member of THAT #*%!*^# public!!

Phobos · 2002-07-16 18:44:37

Shaun, you must learn humility and give everything you make to the masters! Thou must learn to be a good serf and give all of your money to those who are better qualified to spend it than you are. To keep any for yourself is greed! Humility is the key!

Palomar · 2002-07-16 20:39:22

How on Earth do you spend 70 million dollars working on a stupid pen design?

*The Government; ya just gotta love it. Not.

Heck, our postal service has never NOT been in debt.

--Cindy

HombrePequeno · 2002-08-05 14:41:34

OTOH, there's the example of the "Space Pen":
During the early days of manned spaceflight, they had to come up with a way to let astronauts take notes and mark checklists in space -in zero-G, ink won't flow down to the nib of a pen.
They spent $70 million, and developed the space pen. It's amazing: Writes upside down or in zero-G, writes under water or bleach or oil, writes on glass or anything else.
The russians used a pencil.

NASA didn't develop the space pen, the Fisher Pen Comapany did. It only cost $2 million for them to develop years before NASA was even started. NASA started using them in 1967 because using pencils in space capsules is pretty hazardous. The Russians also have been using the space pen for years.

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#1 2002-06-26 10:55:28

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#2 2002-06-26 14:23:35

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#3 2002-06-27 09:20:51

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#4 2002-06-27 09:47:16

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#5 2002-06-30 10:16:10

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#6 2002-07-11 22:42:26

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#7 2002-07-12 00:20:14

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#8 2002-07-12 06:07:49

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#9 2002-07-12 21:45:25

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#10 2002-07-13 03:38:49

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#11 2002-07-13 07:59:20

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#12 2002-07-16 01:17:50

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#13 2002-07-16 18:44:37

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#14 2002-07-16 20:39:22

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

#15 2002-08-05 14:41:34

Re: This might be a dumb question, but did Zubrin say - Mars Direct

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