Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

berty · 2004-03-17 16:12:10

Can a sustained human space exploration programme ever be achieved? In addition will it ever become respectable and gain the prominence it deserves?

Palomar · 2004-03-17 16:17:05

*Hi Berty. I voted for "Yes, but not until the next century."

Perhaps I'm feeling a bit more cynical today than I usually do. Lots can change in 96 years, right? After all, it's only 2004. The global situation is, imo, so bad right now...amongst other things (and no, I'm not trying to introduce politics here; one statement relative to the rest).

--Cindy

Lars_J · 2004-03-17 16:22:37

Human space exploration will become high priority if we get a serious asteroid impact scare (or actual impact).

Otherwise we'll have to wait for cheap space access - Then it won't have to be a priority but will happen anyway.

Cobra Commander · 2004-03-17 17:50:40

Will sustained space exploration become a priority? No. But if it can be made practical (read profitable) than sustained space utilization will take off. No pun intended. Once out there, exploration will be more feasible and will proceed at a reasonable clip.

So let's go mine something!

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2004-03-17 20:11:22

what do you mean by sustained?

-people exploring constantly in outer space? This could happen if you take the Moon into account, having people on the moon is to explore is it not? The ESA is looking at new forms of energy and has thought about a moon mission. China will design new types of rocket, will put more people in space, plans to build a space station and land an unmanned spacecraft on the moon sooner than 2010. Russian space agency has laos said the first flight to Mars could be made in 2018. Also Leonid Gorshkov spoke about the abilty to send probes into space, and maybe design plans for a manned moon mission. Using a Russian rocket, a California company plans to fly the private missions to the moon delivering messages, business cards and cremated remains for a sum of money. This type of commercialization might help bring money it the space agency and help in bringing in money for continous explorations, I suppose in one way the people on the ISS can be looked at as great wonderful explorers. It's sure the people on a lunar base will be looked at this way.

-Sustained transports and a future as continuous missions? With the talk of America going back to space, its re-design of the shuttle, Europe looking at new probes and new forms of propulsion and transport, we could some day see transports between here and mars, but not for a long while. Man needs to set foot on mars. Bush committed NASA to return to the Moon no later than 2020 and building a moon base and with a manned mars mission in the future, exploration between planets is possible. If we ever put a manned base on Mars, won't the people there also be explorers, and transoprts going back and forth to the planet?

-Or maybe probes always looking exploring space? Like the Voyagers, lunar probes, Giotto, Viking and Zond. Soon in the future Europe and China will be updating their missions, NASA are studying new designs and Russia have also plans for launches and additions to the ISS. We will soon see new designs and maybe new ideas for exploration of the outer planets, the kupier belt, pluto. Yet maybe this would be better done on a manned starship, I think we are a long way away from seeing mankind build one of those exploring spaceships..but maybe we are not too far..?

berty · 2004-03-25 15:27:51

By sustained I mean: continual, prolonged, persistent, lasting etc. In other words once started manned exploration will progress without interruption, which has unfortunately epitomized our approach during the last few decades.

Unfortunately as long as politicians make the decisions especially regarding funding, we will fall well short of our potential.

If business could be encouraged to contribute things could move along more rapidly, but only if the accountants who rule them can see a guaranteed profit within a very short time frame. Unfortunately space exploration, especially the manned type is a long term investment and therefore far too much of a gamble for risk averse people.

rstones8 · 2004-03-26 00:41:59

I dont think we will see a "sustained" human presence in space for awhile. The recent rise in interest in space exploration, particularaly Mars and the moon, will most likely eventually die off like it did with Apollo. It is amazing that people can actually loose interest in the future of humanity, but it is bound to happen. And I doubt that the initial human Mars missions (assuming interest keeps up until then) will be followed very closely by efforts of a permanent base or colonization. To the average American a Mars mission is like a moon mission, but with red dust rather than grey. Most do not see the enormous opportunity it represents for the spread and survival of mankind. They see a cute science project and will soon become bored with it. This ignorance would not be a problem if it wasn't their buck paying for it, but in the end it is.

However, I do hope that I have underestimated the vision and spirit of the average taxpayer, and that all of the assumptions I have just made are completely wrong. With any luck there are enough people with foresight out there to make the importance of human space exploration and settlement known to all, and perhaps keep the interst and effort going long enough to put us on Mars and keep us there.

MarsDog · 2004-03-26 03:00:15

Hinges on cheap enabling technology.
Space will become safe and inexpensive only with cheap reliable robot transport. (Recently, the robot cars could not even make it across the desert.)
-
I think it is better to soft pedal manned exploration, untill the technology makes space easy. The technology is almost here.
With India, China, Japan, Russia, Europe, and USA involved, space is top priority. It will happen as soon as it can.
-
For sustainability, we might have to practice more on the Moon, and build large space stations (space ships). Safety first.
-
A quick one shot attempt at Mars before the technology
is ripe might be too expensive and dangerous; and then be put on the back burner as was the Moon.

stratoghost · 2004-03-26 03:42:43

I disagree MarsDog, if we can get people to Mars, they can utilize the resources there allowing more people to travel there. The people there can build even greater facilities to accomodate asteriod mining. A chunk of iron the size of a city would be valuable on Earth as well as Mars. Cutting off chuncks and sending them to Earth or Mars would not be a big problem.

Practice on the moon is pointless. It has no resources. Large space stations are nice, but who will pay for them. If there is value found in going to Mars, people will go. The rest will follow. The only way to know is to go. I just hope the first mission discovers the Martian Sutter's Mill.

MarsDog · 2004-03-26 04:56:57

Success comes down to safety first.
For a large project, you have to get the bugs out.
There are always oversights, unexpected breakdowns.
-
Without methods proven near Earth,
The project could end as did the numerous lost Martian probes.

Josh Cryer · 2004-03-26 14:01:15

I voted for 25 years, but I'm assuming we'll get a breakthrough in cheap launch vehicles or something. Human technology is increasing at an astonishing pace, it would really surprise me if we couldn't master self suffiency in space within the next 25 years.

DanielCook · 2004-03-26 14:20:43

Space will become safe and inexpensive only with cheap reliable robot transport. (Recently, the robot cars could not even make it across the desert.)

True - but there is (almost) nothing to run into in space.

For future space robotics, it'll be interesting to see what they come up with to robotically service the Hubble. That'll be a much better indicator to the viability of robotic transports, - assembly etc.

But very little stills beats a pair of hands, eyes and the human brain.

MarsDog · 2004-03-27 06:13:32

Yes, I agree that the difficulty of Hubble repairs is an indicator of our technological competence. Until tasks like that become
routine, the trip to Mars becomes gamblers luck.
-
It takes about 5 years for a newly introduced technology to become become a reliable, affordable consumer item. Extrapolating from the walking Japanese robot, the intermediate future looks good. By the 2020 Moon target date, the robot may be able to do triple somersaults while realigning the Hubble mirror.

spaced_out_guy · 2004-03-28 17:01:24

Hi everybody, this is my first post - unfortunately rather a negative one.
I always thought that human space exploration would intensify as time went by, and as technology made access to space ever cheaper. In such a scenario, space tourism would take off: first suborbital and then orbital space-planes would be develped. Nasa, too, would be reinvigorated: a return to the moon followed by a mission to Mars by 2030. Even if the timetable slipped a bit we'd go to Mars by 2040, or 2050, or ...
Recently, though, I've been having doubts about whether we will ever have a serious presence in space. This wasn't the usual worries about the public's lack of interest in space, but rather the fate of the economy in this century.
Why wouldn't the economy continue to grow as it has done, you might ask. Well here's why:
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,1 … 72,00.html]http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,1 … 72,00.html

MarsDog · 2004-03-29 05:11:24

Economics of stratification will continue to make space exploration happen;
From the starving many; to the joyriders of sub orbital flights.
And the other way, the trickle down economics ?

Josh Cryer · 2004-03-31 12:45:16

I've always felt that if you based your beliefs in space exploration or colonization on economics, you'd be opening a pandoras box. Space has yet to prove to be economical for manned exploration in the slightest. The technology to get in to space isn't actually that dramatic, it's just that gravity wells tend to cost money to get out of, and we don't have any decent infrastucture to do so for people, not to mention people tend to be increasingly unnecessary for tasks; especially in a reality where practically every space related activity (ie, satellites) has gone without human presence.

And we may never get into spaec, if we depend on economics to do it, because robots can do everything humans can do, from a resource gathering perspective. Need elements shipped to Earth? Send a probe to an asteroid and have it push it back to one of the stable lagrange points... (L5, anyone?) Using one of the zero energy trajectories, it could be done for pennies (compared to the wealth gained).

So in my opinion, it's not going to be economics that gets us up there, but rather a desire.

MarsDog · 2004-04-01 04:24:33

Yes, I agree, human desire is the fuel to Mars.
Motivation may be as a hobby, or
Instead of Parachute Jumping or White River Rafting,
What better way to impress a female ?
Than going to Mars !

dicktice · 2004-04-01 09:53:46

You mean with-or-without the female, you dog!

MarsDog · 2004-04-02 03:35:51

What motivates Man ?
The answer is in the prehistoric cave drawings;
And on the magazine front covers.

JammerG55 · 2004-04-02 12:14:51

Funney ha ha ha . but what do you mean by "sustanined"
we already have a pseuedosustained space exploration with the iss.

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#1 2004-03-17 16:12:10

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#2 2004-03-17 16:17:05

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#3 2004-03-17 16:22:37

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#4 2004-03-17 17:50:40

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#5 2004-03-17 20:11:22

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#6 2004-03-25 15:27:51

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#7 2004-03-26 00:41:59

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#8 2004-03-26 03:00:15

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#9 2004-03-26 03:42:43

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#10 2004-03-26 04:56:57

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#11 2004-03-26 14:01:15

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#12 2004-03-26 14:20:43

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#13 2004-03-27 06:13:32

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#14 2004-03-28 17:01:24

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#15 2004-03-29 05:11:24

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#16 2004-03-31 12:45:16

Re: Sustained human space exploration - Will it ever become a priority?

#17 2004-04-01 04:24:33

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#18 2004-04-01 09:53:46

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#19 2004-04-02 03:35:51

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