Weather Watching II - weather stuff...continued

Byron · 2004-03-11 06:55:47

Cindy has reported some missing posts in the old "Weather Watching" thread, so I offered to start a new one in here...

Has anyone seen the new trailer for the movie "The Day After Tomorrow?" If you have broadband internet, I highly recommend you take a look at it here...: [http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/dayaf … large.html]Weather Disaster Movie

Lots of "eye candy," that's for sure...hehe...I love movies like this... :band:

B

Byron · 2004-03-11 07:00:13

Another thing that I just remembered hearing about lately, concerning the weather, is that the United States has recorded the lowest number of tornados in the recent Dec-Feb period on record...I can't help wonder if this is the "calm before the storm" and that we're about to go through a huge outbreak of tornados, a la April 1974 (anyone remember that one??)

I guess things like tornado outbreaks come and go in cycles, just like everything else...

B

Palomar · 2004-03-11 07:09:31

Another thing that I just remembered hearing about lately, concerning the weather, is that the United States has recorded the lowest number of tornados in the recent Dec-Feb period on record...I can't help wonder if this is the "calm before the storm" and that we're about to go through a huge outbreak of tornados, a la April 1974 (anyone remember that one??)
I guess things like tornado outbreaks come and go in cycles, just like everything else...
B

*Hey Byron!

Yep, I remember the 1974 outbreak. Living in Iowa at the time, it wasn't hard paying attention to that!

What's really freaky is that weather predicting has become so unpredictable. The National Weather Service was predicting a horrendous hurricane season for 2003...it was a dud, as far as I'm aware.

As for the tornado situation, I have a hunch you might be right. Last spring was crazy for tornados in the mid-section of the nation. A couple, friends of my husband's, moved to Oklahoma just 10 months prior; I couldn't help wondering if they were "enjoying" running to the cellar every 15 minutes.

By the way, Oklahoma City (they live south of it by a hundred miles or so) is "ground zero" for tornados. I wouldn't live there, no thanks.

--Cindy

::EDIT:: Thanks for re-referring that movie; I definitely want to see it.

Palomar · 2004-03-17 08:30:29

[http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s … _snowstorm]...jingle bells, jingle bells...

*Aw, I shouldn't tease. That's a load of snow. How well (and unfondly) do I recall shoveling the stuff. :-\

My husband and I took a day trip up to the Franklin Mtns last month; there was at least 2 inches of snow on the ground. I'd almost forgotten the isolative effect snow has; paths and sidewalks are obscurred; everything seems a bit claustrophobic. It was pretty on the pine needles and rocky ramparts alongside the road...but I was glad to get back down into the desert!! :laugh:

--Cindy

Byron · 2004-03-17 09:17:34

You should have been with me several years ago when I went up to Mt. Wilson, less than 25 miles from downtown LA...there was three feet of snow on the ground. It was literally waist-high...

It was fascinating to come back into the city after seeing all that snow, with temps in the 60's...lol.

B

Palomar · 2004-03-17 09:56:40

I went up to Mt. Wilson, less than 25 miles from downtown LA...there was three feet of snow on the ground. It was literally waist-high...

*Oh yes, I am familiar with snow that deep from the past. My parents purchased a home movie camera just before my sister's birth, in the early 1960s. We have my father on tape, walking up a huge snow drift in front of our one-storey home...setting his FOOT onto the roof!

I was running in the backyard one cold, wintry day when I tripped over something: The top of my mother's metal clothesline pole! You know, the old-fashioned ones shaped like a "T"...I tripped over the upper crossbar of it. It was just barely covered with snow and the toe of my snowboots snagged it.

Been there, done that!

By the way, saucer sleds are the most fun going down slippery snowy slopes; not only do you go down (of course), but you sometimes also get a wild spinning ride.

--Cindy

Palomar · 2004-03-19 11:16:18

Has anyone seen the new trailer for the movie "The Day After Tomorrow?" If you have broadband internet, I highly recommend you take a look at it here...: [http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/dayaf … large.html]Weather Disaster Movie
Lots of "eye candy," that's for sure...hehe...I love movies like this... :band:
B

*Hi Byron. I finally managed to catch the trailer to that movie (it wouldn't download for me from the internet) on TV. Wow...yep, a definite "must-see"

[http://www.spacedaily.com/news/climate-04p.html]NASA & 1930s "Dust Bowl"

*My father was just a tiny kid when this was going on, and I don't believe our home state experienced the really bad aspects of it; I think Kansas and Oklahoma were hardest hit by the "Dust Bowl" - ? My mother wasn't around then. I don't have any living relatives who may have lived through this or remembered it. It wasn't really so long ago, and it reminded me of how glued into NOW we tend to get. I've seen old movie film of the dust and drought...incredible.

--Cindy

::EDIT:: I wonder how many people died as a result of this? Look at that huge billowing bank of dust behind those houses in the pic! Imagine people with respiratory problems; even healthy lungs would have a heck of a time handling that.

Byron · 2004-03-19 12:41:19

*My father was just a tiny kid when this was going on, and I don't believe our home state experienced the really bad aspects of it; I think Kansas and Oklahoma were hardest hit by the "Dust Bowl" - ? My mother wasn't around then. I don't have any living relatives who may have lived through this or remembered it. It wasn't really so long ago, and it reminded me of how glued into NOW we tend to get. I've seen old movie film of the dust and drought...incredible.

Yeah, I've seen those films of those terrible dust storms...it was one of the primary factors which exacerbated the agricultural depression in the U.S., and caused a massive migration of destitute farmers to California and elsewhere. I wouldn't have any idea of how many actually died because of this...it was the long-term hardship of the drought and failed crops that was so devastating to that area of the country.

B

Palomar · 2004-03-22 12:21:28

[http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap040321.html]The "Green Flash"

*I was going to put this in my "Heliopolis" thread, but as this is an atmospheric phenomenon (and not due to the Sun itself), I'll put it here.

I've never seen the green flash, either for sunrise or sunset. Has anyone here?

--Cindy

Byron · 2004-03-23 05:42:44

[http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap040321.html]The "Green Flash"
*I was going to put this in my "Heliopolis" thread, but as this is an atmospheric phenomenon (and not due to the Sun itself), I'll put it here.
I've never seen the green flash, either for sunrise or sunset. Has anyone here?
--Cindy

I've never seen the green flash, but I've heard of people who have, down in the Florida Keys, which is supposed to be an ideal place to see it. The pic you liked to is the best example of the green flash I've seen...very nice!

B

Palomar · 2004-03-23 07:20:25

I've never seen the green flash, but I've heard of people who have, down in the Florida Keys, which is supposed to be an ideal place to see it. The pic you liked to is the best example of the green flash I've seen...very nice!
B

*Hi Byron. I'm not surprised at your reference to the Keys statement. All pics I've seen of "the green flash" seem to be taken in high-humidity areas, i.e. lots of atmospheric disturbance (the edges of the Sun look a bit "wavy," etc.). Here in the desert, there is very little atmospheric disturbance near the horizons. The Sun pretty much sets (I actually haven't seen a *Sunrise* in years because of the long and high chain of mountains running along the entire eastern horizon in this area) "solid" in my area-- a big bloated orange ball, no waviness, no distortions.

Oh well.

--Cindy

Byron · 2004-03-27 06:43:57

Check this out! [http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/ne … 289090.htm]Hurricane off the coast of southern Brazil

This is the FIRST recorded hurricane in that part of the world, and meteologists are puzzled over how this storm managed to form in such a unconventional location (unfavorable winds, etc) for these types of storms, and they don't know if it will hit land or not, as computer models aren't set up to deal with tropical cyclones in that part of the world

Wonders never cease, huh?

B

Byron · 2004-03-27 12:20:20

Update on rare storm: [http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26418286.htm]Hurricane off the coast of Brazil

The poor thing doesn't have a name, though...wonder if they'll come up with one?...lol.

B

Palomar · 2004-03-31 16:49:29

Update on rare storm: [http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26418286.htm]Hurricane off the coast of Brazil
The poor thing doesn't have a name, though...wonder if they'll come up with one?...lol.
B

*The last I heard, meterologists were debating (on an international basis) whether this was indeed a hurricane or not (wind speeds seemed to be the focus of the debate). Apparently 9 people killed (that they know of; hopefully the count won't go up).

--Cindy

Byron · 2004-04-01 06:18:24

Update on rare storm: [http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26418286.htm]Hurricane off the coast of Brazil
The poor thing doesn't have a name, though...wonder if they'll come up with one?...lol.
B
*The last I heard, meterologists were debating (on an international basis) whether this was indeed a hurricane or not (wind speeds seemed to be the focus of the debate). Apparently 9 people killed (that they know of; hopefully the count won't go up).
--Cindy

Yes, I'm aware of that debate...meteorologists in the U.S. (including Wx god Bastardi..lol) insist that it was a Catagory 1 hurricane with winds of at least 75 mph, while the Brazilian meteorologists insist it was merely a tropical cyclone with winds of approx 55 mph.

They did give it a name, however, a pretty one at that...Catarina, which is cool

Either way you look at it, it was an extremely rare event to see in the South Atlantic, and Bastardi did make note of the fact that this storm was triggered not by overheated ocean waters (as the "globalwarmistas" might insist), but by an unusally strong and cold low-pressure "trough" digging in from the high latitudes...sorta like a massive cold front sweeping all the way down to the central Carribean, which can trigger late-season storms in that part of the world.

An interesting event all the way around...

B

Shaun Barrett · 2004-04-01 07:14:09

Just thought I might throw another 2 cents worth into this weather thread.
16 degrees south of the equator, here in beautiful Cairns Australia, we're supposed to get about 2 metres of rain per annum. Well, we haven't reached that average figure for the last three years but, this year, things have returned to normal ... and then some!
During the first three weeks of March alone, we recorded 1040 mm of rain. (Just shy of 3 feet 5 inches in the old money.)
If you're driving through a real downpour, even with the wipers thrashing away at top speed, you have to slow to a crawl because you just can't see more than a few metres in front of you. Spectacular stuff and great fun to watch!

Palomar · 2004-04-01 07:26:12

Just thought I might throw another 2 cents worth into this weather thread.
16 degrees south of the equator, here in beautiful Cairns Australia, we're supposed to get about 2 metres of rain per annum. Well, we haven't reached that average figure for the last three years but, this year, things have returned to normal ... and then some!
During the first three weeks of March alone, we recorded 1040 mm of rain. (Just shy of 3 feet 5 inches in the old money.)
If you're driving through a real downpour, even with the wipers thrashing away at top speed, you have to slow to a crawl because you just can't see more than a few metres in front of you. Spectacular stuff and great fun to watch!

*My god! I have -never- witnessed rain like that; neither in all my years growing up in the Midwest of the US or living a very short while in the subtropics of extreme southern Texas.

Where I currently reside, 0.25 inch of rain is considered phenomenal. The past few years we've gotten roughly 1.5 inches of rain per annum, -if- we're lucky. Of course, it's the desert, but even by desert standards we're in a drought.

It's somewhat darkly humorous to tune into the local news and the meterologist is going bonkers about how much RAIN we got today -- wasn't that awesome?! (even if it's only 0.013 inch of rain); of course, I suppose it's his/her "job" to cheer up the public as well (we do NEED the rain desperately). And of course, any amount helps and we're grateful for it.

Actually, March was rather rainy for this area as well. At least the Rio Grande has water in it again (it was dry as a bone this winter...I mean, a dust bed).

If it keeps up, Shaun, you guys might be shoveling water.

--Cindy

Byron · 2004-04-01 07:35:21

If you're driving through a real downpour, even with the wipers thrashing away at top speed, you have to slow to a crawl because you just can't see more than a few metres in front of you. Spectacular stuff and great fun to watch!

Hehe...that sounds like South Florida in June, which is usually our rainest month. There have been plenty of times I've been caught out in rain so heavy that I've been forced to slow to a crawl...lol. But it is great fun to watch, especially when you're standing in the doorway and you're looking out at what seems to be like a solid waterfall.

I can't recall getting three feet of rain in three weeks down here, however...that seems pretty extreme... Are you guys having major problems with flooding, etc? But given the choice, I'd rather have too much rain than too little...I simply could not imagine living in a place where it doesn't rain for months at a time, and a quarter inch is considered a downpour (!) And if this house ever floods out from a super cloudburst one of these days, I have my federally-backed flood insurance to fall back on, so no worries about that!...lol

B

Shaun Barrett · 2004-04-01 22:23:33

Hi Cindy and Byron!
Yes, it is pretty amazing rainfall. Cairns was completely cut off, with all roads in and out impassable due to flooding for about 24 to 36 hours.
We have very large drainage conduits, though, and within a few days it was hard to see that we'd had such a deluge.

The coast road from here to Port Douglas is prone to landslides and the heavy rain caused a real beauty this time! Half the road, over a 20 metre stretch, fell into the sea and the other half was liberally sprinkled with rocks up to 20 tonnes in weight. At first, they were talking about the road being closed for a week but, after some feverish work with heavy-lifting equipment, they had one lane open within 24 hours.

Things seem to have settled down now and the wet season is almost over. The best weather is now on its way ... I just love the winters here. (They're about the same as your winters in Florida, aren't they Byron?)

Byron · 2004-04-02 06:35:08

Hi Cindy and Byron!
Yes, it is pretty amazing rainfall. Cairns was completely cut off, with all roads in and out impassable due to flooding for about 24 to 36 hours.
We have very large drainage conduits, though, and within a few days it was hard to see that we'd had such a deluge.
The coast road from here to Port Douglas is prone to landslides and the heavy rain caused a real beauty this time! Half the road, over a 20 metre stretch, fell into the sea and the other half was liberally sprinkled with rocks up to 20 tonnes in weight. At first, they were talking about the road being closed for a week but, after some feverish work with heavy-lifting equipment, they had one lane open within 24 hours.
Things seem to have settled down now and the wet season is almost over. The best weather is now on its way ... I just love the winters here. (They're about the same as your winters in Florida, aren't they Byron?)

Talk about adventures in weather! Sounds like you guys had a wild time for a while there...was this due to a slow-moving tropical cyclone or whatever?

This brings to mind when I was in north Queensland, in March of '86, and they were getting big rains then too. A cyclone had moved in north of Cairns the day before I got there (I arrived from the south), and I saw flooded streets, etc, but nothing like roads being washed out or anything. I did see a waterfall at a park north of Cairns which is normally supposed to be pretty tranquil, but it was in full flood when I saw it...it was an impressive sight, to say the least...lol. That water was moving fast...hehe

Yeah, I can imagine you're looking forward to winter coming on...meanwhile, the weather here has been absolutely superb, with cooler-than-normal temps, ultra-low humidity and sparkling blue skies, thanks to the wonderous trough locked in over the eastern U.S. And to tell you the truth, this past winter has been the prettiest of all the winters I've seen so far down here...I just don't recall the weather being so perfect for so long...I'm beginning to wonder if someone isn't experimenting with a weather control machine somewhere...lol

Now if only this weather would hold for the next six months or so...hehe...but I know that's a bit much to ask

B

Shaun Barrett · 2004-04-02 08:11:17

Yes, Byron, you hit the nail on the head precisely with your question about the cause of our heavy rains. There was indeed a tropical low pressure system to the north of Cairns for days. It turned into tropical cyclone 'Grace', only a Category 1 (the lowest strength), and then proceeded south toward Cairns before veering east-south-east and weakening to a tropical low again east of here in the Coral Sea.
We missed the brunt of its power, only getting moderate winds because it didn't come very close, but it sure stirred up some precipitation!

It's looking as though this will be our 4th wet season in succession without any serious cyclone problems. And I understand the number and severity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is also declining.
This appears to fly in the face of the models and calculations of the 'greenhouse crisis' camp. According to them, we should be getting more and fiercer storms as the planet's temperatures spiral ever higher.

Without wishing to start a war over the touchy subject of global warming, I honestly think the data are very likely wrong. The much-vaunted 0.7 deg.C rise in average surface temperatures in the past century has come about because the temperature gauges, which used to lie outside villages, have been surrounded by expanding suburbia, with its heat-trapping black tar roads and concrete buildings. Everyone knows it's always hotter in a city than in the surrounding rural areas.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if any detectable atmospheric changes are the early signs of the end of our current interglacial warm spell. I suspect we may be approaching a new era of very cold weather, which may last for thousands of years. I hope I'm wrong because I feel the cold and my wife can't abide it (! ) but it seems more likely to me than any warming problem.
Why should I be right and hundreds of scientists wrong? No rational reason beyond the fact that climatologists tell us we're about due for another serious cold-snap and that I've yet to see convincing evidence that global warming is a reality. I know that attitude gets up people's noses but it's just the way I feel about it and my personal observations of everyday weather patterns, year-in-year-out, convince me more and more that the world isn't getting warmer.

Anyhow, as I've said before, I'm more scared of the freezing scenario I've described than I am of warmer world.

Byron · 2004-04-02 09:55:19

I wouldn't be at all surprised if any detectable atmospheric changes are the early signs of the end of our current interglacial warm spell. I suspect we may be approaching a new era of very cold weather, which may last for thousands of years. I hope I'm wrong because I feel the cold and my wife can't abide it (! ) but it seems more likely to me than any warming problem.
Why should I be right and hundreds of scientists wrong? No rational reason beyond the fact that climatologists tell us we're about due for another serious cold-snap and that I've yet to see convincing evidence that global warming is a reality. I know that attitude gets up people's noses but it's just the way I feel about it and my personal observations of everyday weather patterns, year-in-year-out, convince me more and more that the world isn't getting warmer.
Anyhow, as I've said before, I'm more scared of the freezing scenario I've described than I am of warmer world.

Shaun, you certainly have an ally in me when it comes to this line of thinking...and I think you'd be able to get along with Joe Bastardi as well...as that's *exactly* what's he's been saying in his weather column for quite some time. It's time for us "sensible people" to unite against the dreadful "globalwarmistas"...lolol.

Not that I'm a climate expert by any means, but I've always felt that this "global warming" bruhaa is a political fad based on circumstancial evidence. Climate can and does run in cycles, and the present-day, long-running eastern North American trough could very well be the first signs of an extended cool spell for this part of the world...which certainly makes for a happy camper in this little corner of the world... I know, I know, I'm heavily biased towards colder weather...hehe...

The important thing is, however, that our collective knowledge of the intricate workings of the Earth's climate is still rather lacking (in my opinion, anyhow), and a much greater effort needs to be devoted to studying global weather and climate (especially the oceans), so we can have some idea of what's really up with the weather and climate and how we could best go about coping with potential climate change in the future.

Post Edit: I don't think you and your wife needn't fret too much about a colder shift in the climate, as the average temp in the tropics (less than 20 degrees of latitude off the Equator) was only something like 5 C cooler in the depths of the last ice age than now...so life in Cairns (which is like 16-17 degrees S, I think) really wouldn't change that much if an ice age did come...so you guys needn't fret too much..lol.

I've often wondered what the climate down here (south Florida, 26 degrees N) was like during the last ice age (12,000 years ago)...certainly it was cooler than now, but I don't know if the winter snowpack ever extended this far south, for instance. The Southeastern U.S. did have dense forests, with oak shrub dominating Florida and the Gulf Coast, which indicates a fairly hospitable climate for the most part.

Can't you guys tell that I'm an "Ice Age" fanatic??...LOL

Shaun Barrett · 2004-04-02 18:50:59

Thanks, Byron, for the reassuring words about how pleasant Cairns will be as places like New York disappear under hundreds of metres of ice and snow!

By the way, if you come across any interesting quotes from this Bastardi fella, I'd like to hear the kind of things he has to say about the climate. I take it he's a professionally qualified meteorologist and it sounds like he'd have a much better handle on how the world's weather is or isn't changing over time than most of us do.
I know how powerful the anti-globalisation, anti-oil-industry, anti-capitalism, (dare I say anti-American) movement has become. While I'm sure there are perfectly good reasons why so many people feel that way about things, and while I may or may not agree with all of their reasoning, it does concern me that the 'global warming' thing could have been boosted and exaggerated because it melds so nicely into that particular political viewpoint.
If you don't like big business, it's a very handy weapon to be able to say "those big bad capitalists aren't just polluting the world, now they're destroying the planet by gradually turning it into another Venusian hell!" It worries me that the political left, and that probably includes many scientists, are allowing their political passions to cloud their judgment by weakening their objectivity. Again, I may be wrong but I haven't seen enough evidence yet to convince me we're in any serious trouble.

On the other hand, as a general point, I think we should definitely be actively seeking to free ourselves of dependence on fossil fuels as soon as possible. I don't think we should be pumping CO2 into the air when we don't really know what the long-term consequences might be. (Though, as I've said, that doesn't mean I'm in a spin about any serious and immediate threat from global warming.)
I think solar energy is our best bet for the future but I still haven't given up on Cold Fusion as a potential energy source. You may have noticed they're planning to conduct a review of research into Cold Fusion soon, to examine work done on it over the past 15 years in labs all over the world.
A few years ago, when I was contemplating a change to a career in journalism, I had occasion to contact Dr. Michael McKubre of SRI International in Menlo Park, California. He is one of the leading researchers into Cold Fusion and his work will be featured at the upcoming review. I communicated with him by telephone and by mail and I was very impressed that he was so absolutely certain that Cold Fusion was real and that it would revolutionise cheap clean energy production in the near future. He really made it sound like it was in the bag and that it was just a matter of time before it all fell into place - and he's a very nice guy, too!

I'm enormously optimistic about humanity's future. I believe we're so close to such amazing advances in materials science, energy production, and exobiology (Mars! ) etc. that the world will be a completely different, and better, place in just 10 or 20 years from now.
Oops! Sorry. There I go, waffling again! :laugh:

Palomar · 2004-04-05 07:54:16

Check this out! [http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/ne … 289090.htm]Hurricane off the coast of southern Brazil
This is the FIRST recorded hurricane in that part of the world, and meteologists are puzzled over how this storm managed to form in such a unconventional location...

[http://www.space.com/imageoftheday/imag … 40405.html]Striking photo of Catarina, courtesy ISS crew

*Found this at Space.com.

---

Speaking of local rain (again), we had a genuine Midwestern-style thunder- and rainstorm Saturday night, complete with continual rumbling thunder and both cloud-to-ground and cloud-to-cloud lightning. I haven't seen a storm like that for 12 years [logical, as this is the Chihuahuan Desert].

Friday and yesterday we had storms, thunder, lightning and blessed INCHES of rain (especially yesterday...wow).

Usually April is very warm and sunny. We need the rain desperately, and no one is complaining.

--Cindy

Palomar · 2004-05-27 06:57:55

*There is a very weird "tricks of light and shadow" sort of effect going on with the weather in my area right now. It's 6:45 a.m. as I'm typing. We've got very dark blue clouds over the eastern half of the sky (which brought sprinkles of rain) and covering the mid-section of the sky as well. There are fainter bluish clouds in the mid-section of the sky, with one very white but small cloud floating in this area. The extreme west-NW sky is a medium shell color; roof tops, solar panel windows, etc., are reflecting the light in the west-NW sky (which is back-lit, of course).

The scattering of the light (especially that peculiar little WHITE cloud floating across the sky's mid-section, as if lit from the west ) makes it seem as though the Sun *is* in the west. If I'd just awoken from a deep sleep and hadn't looked at a clock, I'd swear it's 5 o'clock in the afternoon at least! This is cool...weird, but cool. Disorienting.

I've seen many late-afternoon/early evening rain storms which look exactly like this.

Unusual for us to get even sprinkles of rain, much less heavy cloud cover, this time of year.

--Cindy

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