Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

Josh Cryer · 2004-01-13 17:56:50

What are you running for, Cobra? If I may ask.

clark · 2004-01-13 19:58:21

:laugh: Thank you for the faith.

Mad Grad Student · 2004-01-13 21:42:04

But if Clark gets the nomination he might as well start screaming for MarsDirect instead of the Bush plan.

Nope, I doubt it. It would be simpler just to arbitrarily oppose everything Bush says and call for this plan instead.

Howard Dean's (Probably Dean?) Spaceflight Plan:
1: Finish ISS.
2: Scrap the space shuttle.
3: Develop OSP or other vehicle capible of servicing GPS sattelites, ISS, the Hubble, etc. Develop much more advanced disposable rockets to launch heavy, delicate payloads such as the new telescope and New Horizons.
4: Continue work on the ISS. Carry out experiments with other countries.
5: Service sattelites to keep everything working.
6: Ummmmmm. This plan doesn't include any new developments.

You see, the candidates would leave their audience bewildered if they said "You're getting a new space program no matter what, just one of these two slight (In the public's eye) variations." So, the dems will offer more money on education, social security, blah, blah, we stay here and bicker.

Btw, what's with all of this saying we shouldn't go back to the Moon? I like the Moon, do you not like it? Besides, there is some logic to it. By going to the Moon we could test out Mars gear and learn more about the effects of being outside the Van Allen Belts. Which would you rather do, ride in a probably sheilded spacecraft that honestly no one knows if it will protect you or not, or, a sheilding system that has been tested and proven. I understand that we need to go to Mars, but jumping right there might be a bit too much for right now.

Anyway, here are some more predictions:
1: Opportunity makes a specatcular landing at Meridiani Planum, pays it's condolances to Beagle.
2: (Hopefully!) Spirit drills into a rock at the foothills of the Eastern Mountains. Upon pointing its microscope at it the probe discovers live bacteria.
3: Cassini drops into orbit around Saturn. Starts sending back increadible pictures of the system.
4: Catholic Church holds a meeting of the top 100 astrobiologists in the world to discuss the findings at Gusev Crater and find a position on it.
5: Under Bush's new plan, NASA is allotted $1 billion for a Mars Sample Return and science lab mission to be launched to Guseve Crater. The ESA, JAXA, and Chinesse space agency pitch in.
6: Burt Rutan's Space Ship One launches twice within a week, claiming the $10 million X-Prize. Space Adventures secures a deal for four of the systems to start launching customers.
7: Canadian Arrow launches their rocket three weeks later. To stay competitive they offer cutthroat prices for launching unmanned science packages and slash the manned launch price to $60,000!
8: Howard Dean wins the 2004 election. Announces that the US will back out of the MSR mission, infuriating international parterners, and causing the ESA to back out of the ISS.
9: Huygen's probe drops into Titan's atmosphere, sending back increadible pictures of the river delta system it landed on.
10: ESA announces that it will launch it's own manned space program, with the help of Starchaser Industries, an X-Prize contender. They have the intention of launching a reusable Soyuz-like capsule within the decade.

What do you think?

Ad Astra · 2004-01-13 22:36:17

From Howard Dean's previous statements, it sounds like he will only support space programs as long as the budget is balanced, and if he is the Democratic nominee (which is very likely,) he will attack the president's plan as too expensive and taking money away from social programs.

My predictions:

Some WMD will be found in Iraq, and the security situation will show some (but not total) improvement.

Burt Rutan wins the X-Prize, and one other contender will also fly into space by year's end.

Election 2004: Dean will win the Dem. nomination by a narrow margin, but Bush will be re-elected IF the public sees continuing signs of improvement in Iraq and the economy. However, the Democrats will take back the Senate.

Pope John Paul II will continue to hang on, but will essentially be a puppet of various factions that are fighting for control of the church.

Libya gets off the international naughty list, while Syria takes its place.

clark · 2004-01-14 10:50:45

The Burt Rutan is a good prediction!

I was in Jousha Tree National Park during a recent weekend, and I remember seeing all these jets leave contrails across the empty blue sky. Near sunset, I saw one that looked like it was shooting straight up into the atmosphere... I thought it might have been a secret Rutan flight, so I snapped a picture.

Haven't heard any updates from them, so I'm sure I was mistaken. But it was fun for a moment to just imagine.

Josh Cryer · 2004-01-14 14:19:09

I predict Zubrin won't like Bush's plans.

Mad Grad Student · 2004-01-14 21:50:09

I predict Zubrin won't like Bush's plans.

I predict he does. On to Mars by 2030, what's not to like?

I sincearly hope that whatev dem wins the primary is pro-space. Okay, they don't have to make some huge proposal to take us back to the Moon or anything, just as long as they keep the ISS running and the public mildly interested in space. I'm willing to sacrifice my Moon astronaut candidacy (I'll get my PhD in 2016-17 after all) for some excellent robot pictures. Throw in a terrestrial planet finder and some other goodies and I'll be satisfied, for now.

We do need to go somewhere, though. Let's hope the private sector gets big.

Josh Cryer · 2004-01-14 21:59:44

Mars Direct was designed specifically to jump the supposedly ?necessary? building blocks to get to Mars. Robert Zubrin knows that Mars offers ideal conditions for man to survive on the surface indetinitely, which is precisely why he thought up Mars Direct to get us there as fast as possible. No other place other than Earth in the solar system offers such ideal conditions. Mars is frankly as good as you're going to get without having super high level technologies.

If he likes Bush's plans, I will be extremely surprised. It was precisely what he said he didn't want.

The president did not set a deadline for reaching Mars, and NASA Director Sean O'Keefe, briefing reporters later, said the timing of the mission would depend on the results of studies on the effects of space travel on humans.

[http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s … 4&ncid=716]Source.

It's not "by a given date." It's simply "sometime later." A given since other countries have already exhibited their space aspirations (see: China).

~Eternal~ · 2004-01-14 22:17:45

My predictions:
Clark will win the Election by a few eletorial votes.
Clark will scrap bush's space plan and use good ole' Mars Direct due to popluar demand to go to Mars.
China unveils its plans for a space station to be built within 4 years.
And I complete my beta of my vertical helicopter/ion engine hybrid.

clark · 2004-01-19 15:34:54

Prediction : A new agreement between the international partners for the ISS will allow more than 3 people on board at one time.

Mad Grad Student · 2004-01-19 16:12:42

My predictions:
Clark will win the Election by a few eletorial votes.
Clark will scrap bush's space plan and use good ole' Mars Direct due to popluar demand to go to Mars.

Okay, I can understand Clark winning the nomination. Personally, Dean would be a better candidate and is more likely to win, but who knows. As for who wins the election? Normally I would just say "not Bush," but if the public dosen't like the democratic candidate enough they might elect Bush again (Boo! :angry: ).

As for going with Mars Direct because of popular demand to go to Mars, I'm highly doubtful. First off, why? As enthusiastic as everyone here is to go to Mars, the general public's view is who cares? They're more interested in abortion and death penalty policies than learning about anything. Aren't there more important issues at hand? Not according to the public.

Anyway, the Democrats are more likely to just say that Bush is trying to divert attention away from health care and immigration policies, calling on the public to support this position. In all likelyhood Bush's space plan is likely to go the way of Bush Sr.'s plan, just left on the White House floor and ignored by the next president. My prediction is that our space position returns to where it was before, CEV gets cancelled (Only after at least $1 billion have been invested), ISS is finished and we just mess around up there for a while.

Cynical? Perhaps, but it's also realistic. Space policy will not be a major issue this election.

~Eternal~ · 2004-01-21 14:35:24

s for going with Mars Direct because of popular demand to go to Mars, I'm highly doubtful. First off, why? As enthusiastic as everyone here is to go to Mars, the general public's view is who cares? They're more interested in abortion and death penalty policies than learning about anything. Aren't there more important issues at hand? Not according to the public.

Where on Earth do you live?
Everyone I know is so excited about Bush planning a mission to Mars their wetting themselves, and no they're not like us o-o, they're the cool people o-o.

clark · 2004-01-22 16:11:54

Prediction: CEV will be a modified VTOL ship modeled after the Phoenix and DC-XA (Delta Clipper).

dicktice · 2004-01-22 21:03:51

I predict that when and if any of those planning and bankrolling the suicide bombers are apprehended--given a choice of means of their execution--not a single one of them will choose to blow himself up.

prometheusunbound · 2004-01-26 10:16:52

ok, here are my predictions for 2004

1. Health Care in the USA will nearly collapse under its own weight, promting a national emergacy. Congress will narrowly rescuse it , but just barely.

2. Bush will become a scafrical goat for his Mars plans. I live right next to NASA Glenn and yet the press of my city has said nothing good of his plans, or even of the recent robot landings on mars. I say he drops it like a hot poker iron and wins, or runs with it and dies a quick death in the election year.

3. Espicosical Church breaks up over homosexual debate, Methodist Church (my demonation) debate explodes and threatens to break up in response to this. The Methoodists are the largest protestant denomination in america to my knowledge, this debate moves from there to the national level.

4. Kerry wins the democratic nomination as a darkhorse canidate to the very end. Howard Dean seperates from the Democratic Party with his diehard supporters and is forgotten evermore.

5. Israel and Palestine continue to war, someone will write a report or a book describing the true situation in Israel, both sides will dennounce said report but will show what is really happening and change some persons to create a third party of thought denouncing vehmently both sides.

6. Pakistan and India have a convential war after Mufsharraf is killed. Osama Bin Laden will participate and China will intervene, causing a nuclear showdown. USA and china will go with Pakistan.

7. The USA will pull its naval units out of Japan and permit it to maintain its own defenses to spare units to the indian sea. The JDF is already one of the strongest miltary forces in the world, and will be prominant in the china/pakistan/india showdown.

8. Despite the promises of Bush, Iraq will continue to be occupied. Unrest will grow critical with a pakistan/india/china showdown and will not improve.

9. Russia will vacillate over china, quite possibly doing nothing given the sorry conditions of its miltary. China will do nothing to russia given russia's nukes.

10. The "Jobless Recovery" in the USA will continue, with lower-paying job brackets increasing and higher pay decreasing.

dicktice · 2004-01-26 10:52:14

I disagree with the pessimistic post immediately above: Instead, I prefer to emphasize the positive, e.g., that 2004 will be a turnkey year insofar as (1) acceptance, even enforcement in certain polluted cities, of hybrid internal combustion-electric cars and trucks (2) Kerry wins on the healthcare ticket (3) Arafat leaves the scene making progress towards peace again feasible (4) India and Pakistan continue to back down and continue to promote cross-border rail and air transport build-ups (5) U.S. and Japan will continue as before, with Japan's contribution in Afganistan of very great importance in the long run (6) the UN will supervise the elections in Iraq, and the U.S. begin to withdraw piecemeal, with Iraqi companies increasingly taking over the reconstruction work financed by their own oil revenues. (7) Russia will continue to support the ISS, even to the extent of offering to launch knocked-down structural hardware to complete the station (8) the Space Shuttle will be scheduled to upgrade the Hubble Space Telescope after all (9) China will continue its successful step-by-step progress in space, providing the basis for a U.S. return to the Moon program, damn the cost.

Bill White · 2004-01-26 11:28:34

The Kurds will become the next group straddling the line between terrorist/freedom fighter. This should be troubling since the pesh merga are a well armed fighting force recently trained by US special forces.

Today I saw one Kurdish leader saying Kirkuk is to the Kurds what Jerusalem is to the Arabs and Israelis and that there were 100,000 Kurds forcible relocated from Kirkuk by Saddam. These people claim the right to return. Also, I believe the Kurds are the largest ethnic group (in the world) not to have a native homeland.

How to handle the inevitable call for a native Kurdistan was part of why I was concerned about the plans for Saddam "regime change" which were being discussed a year ago at this time.

Partition may be a bad solution, yet repressing Kurdish desire for a national identity could be worse.

= = =

In other prediction news, bad things will happen which we do not expect and good things will happen which we do not expect. And I predict this last prediction has a high chance of being right.

Gennaro · 2004-01-26 11:48:29

Reading the thread through, one get's the impression that after all, US politicians actually make space policy an issue in election times. Extraordinary. I've never heard a European politician even mention ESA. Ever.
Or is it that you people are only standing in for the debate that ought to be pursued?

dicktice · 2004-01-26 18:10:30

I long for a European presence in space. I still enjoy re-reading Clarkes's "Prelude to Space," with it's British-isms and independence from governmental involvement. Unrealistic today? If you can't forgive a book for when it was written, in 1947, you would find it difficult to read this without getting irritated at the differences between it and history. But if you can forgive it these things, pick it up some time! It tells of a might-have-been British Moon Program that could (with all the dithering going on in the various space agencies--with the exception of China's) still be the way it's going to happen after all.

Ad Astra · 2004-01-27 17:51:50

I'm really disappointed that Germany doesn't have a stronger presence in space, considering the way that German engineers and visionaries acclerated the development of rocketry in the 30's and 40's. To an American observer, it would seem that western European space efforts are being dominated by France.

Earthfirst · 2004-01-28 14:21:41

Bush is going to win by a land slide, those jokes of a candates could not even run for dog cacther.
I like leberman the best, for a demcart he be a ok president, but he will not get the nonimation. As for the rest at lest Al Sharpton has a sense of humer, meaning that the light is on there some home thinking.
As for bush I think he is a great guy, you get the sense that he cares for america, not just about power.
But he has not bin help him self with the guest worker program it does pay to get your core suporters mad at before a elaction just for few hundered mexican votes. He should of held off to after the eletion. There are already too many illegal mexicans here, what needs to done is a regem chang in mexico. Mexico is rich in resourse both labor and nateral, but a corpt society hurts their econmy, that with over population thing are bad in Mexico. Their solution has been to do nothing and flood america with their people, they send money back to mexico. But America cant handle such a plage of people, desotering state bugets, that what happen in califronia.
The solution depopulate mexico by about 10 million and anexet the place, like we did with irag. What the problem any ways they want to come to the us so let save them the trip by bring Anerica to them.

Gennaro · 2004-01-28 19:33:33

Dicktice, checked out that old Clarke novel on Amazon, and it looks like a worthy read. Especially, me like the mention of 'atomic rockets' for ground launch of the future. (Yeah, I know, Nerva isn't suitable for that - too meagre thrust.)
I'll see if I can get it from the library, tomorrow. "Britishisms", is that like Phileas Foggisms or more like Double-O-Seven goes to space, or both?

I'm really disappointed that Germany doesn't have a stronger presence in space, considering the way that German engineers and visionaries acclerated the development of rocketry in the 30's and 40's. To an American observer, it would seem that western European space efforts are being dominated by France.

Me too! But then again, the G.I's and Russians weren't late in including all that rocket science expertise and know-how in their spoils of war. For decades there weren't perhaps that much to build on.
But despite the lost time, it could still be quite grand I think, I mean a whole lot better, if we just give it a try. Not just German rocketry, but Franco-German-Italian-Swedish spaceships. Well, Britain too, if they decide that manned space flight after all is the way to go.
I'd like ESA to wake up from its complacent science slumber and smell the coffee. Look around and see what the Chinese and the US are up to. Become more focused, American-like and driven.
If ESA would care to read The Case for Mars and *learn* as well as getting itself into nuclear engines and start thinking about Vertical Take-Off Vertical Landing concepts, I'd be ecstatic.

dickbill · 2004-01-28 21:57:52

Bush is going to win by a land slide, those jokes of a candates could not even run for dog cacther.
I like leberman the best, for a demcart he be a ok president, but he will not get the nonimation. As for the rest at lest Al Sharpton has a sense of humer,

guys in the south are not good in predicting the future. Leberman cannot be president. When he speaks I feel like I had 20 tylenols and I cannot keep myself awaken.
French New Yorkers are better than that in predicting the future. True, Sharpton is humorous, but he gonna kick your asss to all of you southerners if he become president, so the Yankees here had some smart second thought and decided to give Kerry a shot. That guy is a real yankee, that's what the southerners need as a president. Listen, because that's a french new yorker who says that.
I like Dean and Clark too, but I am not sure that they would fund a program to Mars. Kerry will, because he is a real yankee, a true patriot and a good american, so he loves Mars. You guys better vote for him when it's gonna be your turn, soon. Otherwise we gonna kick....

dickbill · 2004-01-29 10:28:20

I predict that after what said Clark in the "a propos of nothing thread' nobody will dare to post a reply there.

clark · 2004-01-29 10:32:59

:laugh:

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#26 2004-01-13 17:56:50

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#27 2004-01-13 19:58:21

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#28 2004-01-13 21:42:04

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#29 2004-01-13 22:36:17

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#30 2004-01-14 10:50:45

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#31 2004-01-14 14:19:09

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#32 2004-01-14 21:50:09

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#33 2004-01-14 21:59:44

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#34 2004-01-14 22:17:45

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#35 2004-01-19 15:34:54

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#36 2004-01-19 16:12:42

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#37 2004-01-21 14:35:24

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#38 2004-01-22 16:11:54

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#39 2004-01-22 21:03:51

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#40 2004-01-26 10:16:52

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#41 2004-01-26 10:52:14

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#42 2004-01-26 11:28:34

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#43 2004-01-26 11:48:29

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#44 2004-01-26 18:10:30

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#45 2004-01-27 17:51:50

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#46 2004-01-28 14:21:41

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#47 2004-01-28 19:33:33

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#48 2004-01-28 21:57:52

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#49 2004-01-29 10:28:20

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

#50 2004-01-29 10:32:59

Re: Predictions for 2004 - Got one?

Board footer