a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

flashgordon · 2004-01-15 21:08:37

Space elevators.

Surelly, Pres Bush has heard of Mars Direct and all the missions that leave homes on mars for further crews to live when they get there.

And then, He hears of Space Elevators that are coming around before 2020, and when those go up, we'll be able to settle mars and the rest of the solar system far faster.

In other words, he probably doesn't care if russia, china, or europe gets there first and settles some small patch of explorers. When we get our space elevators up, we'll be able to send a lot more a lot faster.

wgc · 2004-01-15 21:16:30

The reason that The president is not in a hurry for Mars could be because he's serious about the plan, not just an election year tactic.

A commitment to Mars in this political environment would be Dead on Arrival. No matter how technically sound and cost effective.

Not when your audience, congress, the media, the general public (some) has the technical prowness of a gerbal!

~Eternal~ · 2004-01-16 11:24:54

The only reason he's going to the moon is too counter-act China's announced space plan
Because:
A.) The Chinese aren't really allied with America.
B.) Surely the Russian spacecraft destined for Mars will take some Astronauts.

Bill White · 2004-01-16 11:42:22

The reason that The president is not in a hurry for Mars could be because he's serious about the plan, not just an election year tactic.

The acid test, IMHO, is whether the Crew Exploiration Vehcile is a real breakthrough program or merely a plan to generate artwork for 4 years and then say, "sorry" the CEV has been cancelled. Riddle me that and then we will know the acual level of the President's commitmemt to Mars.

Sean Keefe ain't even released the artwork, yet.

A commitment to Mars in this political environment would be Dead on Arrival. No matter how technically sound and cost effective.

Too True. Sadly.

So we are back to the first question. If the CEV is "real" then its a step forward. If the CEV is a viewgraph wonder-ship that will never fly then perhaps the true goal of the Bush plan is to rip the guts out of NASA come 2010.

Since the orbiter may not fly until 2005, an alternate plan is to ground the orbiter today and build shuttle B/C or Ares and finish the ISS that way.

Again, the CEV is the central hinge. Is it real or smoke?

If real, President Bush will go down in history as a great visionary leader. If its not real, he will be the President who killed NASA.

Not when your audience, congress, the media, the general public (some) has the technical prowness of a gerbal!

Heh! So what else is new.

Most Americans think Saddam and bin Laden jointly planned the September 11th attacks on a conference call. Or in Prague.

wgc · 2004-01-16 12:11:57

The reason that The president is not in a hurry for Mars could be because he's serious about the plan, not just an election year tactic.
The acid test, IMHO, is whether the Crew Exploiration Vehcile is a real breakthrough program or merely a plan to generate artwork for 4 years and then say, "sorry" the CEV has been cancelled. Riddle me that and then we will know the acual level of the President's commitmemt to Mars.
Sean Keefe ain't even released the artwork, yet.
A commitment to Mars in this political environment would be Dead on Arrival. No matter how technically sound and cost effective.
Too True. Sadly.
So we are back to the first question. If the CEV is "real" then its a step forward. If the CEV is a viewgraph wonder-ship that will never fly then perhaps the true goal of the Bush plan is to rip the guts out of NASA come 2010.
Since the orbiter may not fly until 2005, an alternate plan is to ground the orbiter today and build shuttle B/C or Ares and finish the ISS that way.
Again, the CEV is the central hinge. Is it real or smoke?
If real, President Bush will go down in history as a great visionary leader. If its not real, he will be the President who killed NASA.
Not when your audience, congress, the media, the general public (some) has the technical prowness of a gerbal!
Heh! So what else is new.
Most Americans think Saddam and bin Laden jointly planned the September 11th attacks on a conference call. Or in Prague.

Maybe compareing them to a Gerbal gives them to much credit.

I think the issue is what happens between shuttle retirement, and cev first filight.

I think Okeaf alluded to the notion that the cev should be flight testing about that time. if not maybe they wouldn't retire the shuttle.

There is nothing magical about the 2010 date, the obiters just don't fall apart on that date. its an arbitrary date subject to changes either way,

I read John Pike''s column twice, I don't see were he's coming from. Maybe he's just a bit bitter that the James Wood might get cut.

As for the Cev, Okeaf alluded to the fact the the cev would grow from some of the optional requirements from the osp rfp.

He said those requirements would now be on the top rather than optional nice to have's.

re: secret military cev's, yea right, they keep them on the same base as the Auroas and the captured flying saucers. :laugh:

Bill White · 2004-01-16 12:22:54

In a nutshell:

If the CEV is the "real deal" President Bush is truly a visionary genius and will go down in history as America's greatest space President.

If the CEV never gets much past the artwork stage, then US civilian space is about to enter a new and colder Ice Age especially if all non-CEV programs are slashed in the meantime and the shuttle is four or five years older with no follow on ready for deployment.

Time well tell.

Bill White · 2004-01-16 12:27:03

re: secret military cev's, yea right, they keep them on the same base as the Auroas and the captured flying saucers.

= IF = these things did exist, I would be thrilled. Hell, US Space Marines trooping around on Luna is waaaay better than no one at all.

For the record, it was clark who raised the idea of a DoD CEV. I was responding to a "what if"

Rxke · 2004-01-16 12:29:38

Time will tell.

Is America prepared to stop human space exploration while other nations are not? I don' think so. This CEV *must* succeed, failure is not an option (as Gene Krantz used to say...)

wgc · 2004-01-16 19:06:19

Its great to speculate but maybe we should wait until the RFP comes out, I know the CEV is just a repackage OSP. But the provisions for interplanetary voyage capability was more of an adendum now it has to be a required component.

If its like the OSP proposal I wonder if the full RFP will be made public.

Bill White · 2004-01-16 19:57:50

Its great to speculate but maybe we should wait until the RFP comes out, I know the CEV is just a repackage OSP. But the provisions for interplanetary voyage capability was more of an adendum now it has to be a required component.
If its like the OSP proposal I wonder if the full RFP will be made public.

Fair enough.

Using Delta IV heavy instead of shuttle derived will be just fine for LEO work and light missions to the Moon. A capsule can be put on Delta IV easily enough.

Genuine moonbases will need much more lift or maybe just buy dozens and dozens of Delta IVs.

25 tons to LEO for Delta IV versus 121 tons to LEO for Ares, takes MarsDirect pretty much off the table, however, unless the trans-Mars vessel is some kind of modular "space train"

Ad Astra · 2004-01-17 17:43:25

[=http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=916]The inside story of the new space program

Supposedly it was President Bush himself who declared that the moon was not enough, and Mars needed to be the goal after the lunar return.

And I really don't think China has much to do with the new direction. They will launch a multi-man mission in 2005 nd possibly a space station by 2008. That's three manned space flights in five years. At this rate, even a 2020 lunar landing for China is a pipe dream. But ESA's Aurora plan may have given the White House concern that America would lose whatever perceived dominance it enjoyed in space to the Europeans.

Most of my concerns about this project deal with the technical aspects. The CEV will be similar to Apollo, but how will it differ, and can we develop it with a reasonable budget? The aerospace mergers of the past decade have almost eroded any element of competition we used to enjoy. And when it comes time to fly to the moon and Mars, will we adapt Mars hardware for the moon, or vice-versa? Zubrin obviously believes that moon hardware should be adapted from Mars hardware, and though the argument sounds logical, it should be borne out by trade studies before we proceed.

Martinkh · 2004-01-17 20:52:26

The Europeans cant do it, they are way too socialist, heck, Germany is cutting its military even more, down to 250,000. Can you imagine them spending more money on space when they have a welfare state to support? They cant keep up with us, unless we drag them along and pay thier way, which I hope we dont do. Quite frankly, I hope the french in particular never get another penny from us, nor another scientific tidbit.

China cannot be allowed to get a head start, it would be demoralizing, and possibly dangerous. But they got valuable technology during the clinton admin, and they are in bed with Beoing as well as Loral .

flashgordon · 2004-01-17 23:11:09

What's really exciting from that article above about the inside infighting over space direction is how much political momentum is already in place for this space program; seems, this program will be pushed through capitcal hill.

The only really new technical insight is the new navigational technology; i wonder if this is what china is also getting at?

What's also weird and not mentioned is the effect china's space program had on america's new found space vision?

Kenshin · 2004-01-19 00:16:48

In a nutshell:
If the CEV is the "real deal" President Bush is truly a visionary genius and will go down in history as America's greatest space President.
If the CEV never gets much past the artwork stage, then US civilian space is about to enter a new and colder Ice Age especially if all non-CEV programs are slashed in the meantime and the shuttle is four or five years older with no follow on ready for deployment.
Time well tell.

Or, we stop trying to get governments to spearhead spaceflight and get private corporation spaceflight off the ground.

If it's a spaceflight "ice age" or commerical spaceflight, I choose commercial.

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#1 2004-01-15 21:08:37

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#2 2004-01-15 21:16:30

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#3 2004-01-16 11:24:54

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#4 2004-01-16 11:42:22

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#5 2004-01-16 12:11:57

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#6 2004-01-16 12:22:54

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#7 2004-01-16 12:27:03

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#8 2004-01-16 12:29:38

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#9 2004-01-16 19:06:19

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#10 2004-01-16 19:57:50

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#11 2004-01-17 17:43:25

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#12 2004-01-17 20:52:26

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#13 2004-01-17 23:11:09

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

#14 2004-01-19 00:16:48

Re: a reason why Pres Bush is in no rush on mars

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