Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

Rxke · 2004-01-14 13:05:52

[=http://www.marsdaily.com/2004/040114165625.hdc9ehsq.html]Marsdaily

Hmmm... And Bush hasn't even said a word, yet...
(It's based on their 'old' Zvezda' hardware...)

jadeheart · 2004-01-14 13:21:47

I saw that article. It implied that the Russians have had this plan in motion since 2001. This was the first I'd heard of it.

If they can do it, I say they should go for it. On the other hand, if NASA would COOPERATE with them instead of competing, it seems we'd get to Mars a lot faster and a lot less expensively.

I assume ESA has no interest in taking part in a Russians Mars program as well. Hmmm.

Palomar · 2004-01-14 13:23:58

[http://www.marsdaily.com/2004/040114165 … 9ehsq.html]Marsdaily
Hmmm... And Bush hasn't even said a word, yet...
(It's based on their 'old' Zvezda' hardware...)

*TERRIFIC! I hope they do it. I mean, this has got to really put a fire under the pants of U.S. officials all the way to the White House. And the article says it's "official"...I certainly hope so! And "official" as defined by Webster's!

Go Russia! 2014 versus *after* 2030: Take your pick.

Thanks for posting it Rik!! Has made my day. To see a manned mission to Mars in 10 years, this is awesome!

Competition, like fear, is always a great motivator. I hope this is a kick in the seat of certain "pants" to get on with it over on this side of "the pond."

--Cindy

Rxke · 2004-01-14 13:39:09

Don't want to burst the bubble, but...
Their Zvzda plan is alread quite old, and has been 'scrapped' several times because it had too much drawbacks...

(IIRC there's a lot of info about it on Spaceref (i'll check and provide a link)

EDIT OOPS I meant Spaceencyclopedia!

and can't find it back rightaway (they used Zvezda for several projects...)

EDIT AGAIN OOPS: (what's in that coffee?) I of course meant the brilliant Ecyclopedia Astronautica... Sigh

Palomar · 2004-01-14 13:48:44

Don't want to burst the bubble, but...
Their Zvzda plan is alread quite old, and has been 'scrapped' several times because it had too much drawbacks...
(IIRC there's a lot of info about it on Spaceref (i'll check and provide a link)

EDIT OOPS I meant Spaceencyclopedia!
and can't find it back rightaway (they used Zvezda for several projects...)

*You haven't burst my bubble. Zvzda...okay, I'm going to Google for it.

It's logical to think they've revised/reworked/updated Zvzda, right? The Russians don't make official statements just for the heck of it; at least they've never struck me that way.

I can't believe they are ignorant of Aurora or Mars Direct...perhaps they have recently borrowed from those ideas, incorporated them, etc.

Zvzda...I like that word. I wonder how its pronounced.

--Cindy

Palomar · 2004-01-14 14:00:46

*Google search for "Zvzda" returns links only in Russian and French (I can't read either).

(I did find "Zvezda," which is in connection with space exploration and ISS... There are only 2 English-language links to "Zvezda").

--Cindy

RobertDyck · 2004-01-14 14:01:31

Well...yea but do they have the money? This is old news to me. The Rocket Space Corporation Energia (RSC Energia) has created a series of mission plans since the early 1960's. Their proposal after the 2001 tender is [http://www.energia.ru/english/energia/mars/concept.html]here (in English). Russia attempted to regain their position as a world leader in space exploration, but only Japan expressed interest in joining them. Without other countries to share the cost, they really can't afford it. Sure Russian companies such as RSC Energia could do it, on time and on budget, but only if someone has the money.

By the way, their mission plan has some interesting features.
- It uses a reusable orbit-to-orbit spacecraft with the first mission.
- It uses proven technology: a Soyuz descent module, Zvezda interplanetary habitat, thin-film solar arrays (tested on Mir), Thruster Anode Layer HAL thrusters (electric propulsion, used on Russian satellites), on-orbit assembled truss (tested on Mir, used on ISS), and either Proton, Angara 5, or Launch Vehicle Energia (LV Energia) as the launch vehicle

It also has a couple less desirable features:
- 24 month mission time, but only 1 month on Mars surface
- long transit time each way: 3 month spiral up from low Earth orbit, 8 months to Mars, then 1 month spiral down to low Mars obit. Then return consists of 1 month spiral up from Mars, 7 months to Earth, 3 month spiral down to low Earth orbit.
- the 3 month spiral up from LEO can be done unmanned, and transfer astronauts when the craft is ready to leave for Mars. However, I don't know if you can do that for return. During the 3 month spiral up or down, the craft is travelling through Earth's radiation belts. Spending a few minutes passing through is Ok, but not several months.
- aerocapture and aerobraking could lower orbit quicker, but they aren't compatible with large solar panels (they would tear off)

For more information, you can read two articles from the Russian press (translated into English) at the [http://chapters.marssociety.org/winnipeg/russian.html]Winnipeg Chapter web site. Each page is a separate web page, so click on the links.

Go Russia! 2014 versus *after* 2030: Take your pick.
...
I hope this is a kick in the seat of certain "pants" to get on with it over on this side of "the pond."

Is that one reason why the US government is doing this now?

Rxke · 2004-01-14 14:09:54

I believe that's the one, Robert (it was a while ago when i read about it...)
The name in their Mars plan is not Zvezda (sorry for the dropped 'e' Cindy, too much muesly in my keyboard causes it to do funny things on a very inconsistent babis...... Long story...) though it's based on a very similar module. The Zvezda we know today, on ISS, was to be a core module for MIR2 IIRC...

Probably the name is some acronym like DKM-2A or GGRY-ZDL (making that up, but it *was* some un-memorable acronym...)

Palomar · 2004-01-14 14:10:28

Well...yea but do they have the money? This is old news to me.
Go Russia! 2014 versus *after* 2030: Take your pick.
...
I hope this is a kick in the seat of certain "pants" to get on with it over on this side of "the pond."
Is that one reason why the US government is doing this now?

*Don't know their financial situation.

As for your question: Perhaps. Maybe China's aspirations. Probably a combination of those two...

Robert, do you think it's likely the good folks in Russia may adapt Aurora or Mars Direct to those old plans? Or may have already adapted them? You say this is old news to you.

Do you think the Russians are just posturing? I hope not...I'm asking sincerely. I really don't know how they "operate," i.e. if they're given to making official announcements with set dates, and there's nothing but props in the background.

--Cindy

Rxke · 2004-01-14 14:11:31

esp. The 'reusability' sounds familiar, so it *must* be that one... I guess they dusted off their old plans, once again...

clark · 2004-01-14 14:11:58

Russia's plan for ars have nothing to do with the current Bush's space policy. Russia has been saying the same thing about Mars since Regan (Gorby actually brought it up).

Russia ain't getting to Mars any time soon. If they do, it will be with the ESA in 2033.

jadeheart · 2004-01-14 14:16:06

It also has a couple less desirable features:
- 24 month mission time, but only 1 month on Mars surface
- long transit time each way: 3 month spiral up from low Earth orbit, 8 months to Mars, then 1 month spiral down to low Mars obit. Then return consists of 1 month spiral up from Mars, 7 months to Earth, 3 month spiral down to low Earth orbit.
- the 3 month spiral up from LEO can be done unmanned, and transfer astronauts when the craft is ready to leave for Mars. However, I don't know if you can do that for return. During the 3 month spiral up or down, the craft is travelling through Earth's radiation belts. Spending a few minutes passing through is Ok, but not several months.
- aerocapture and aerobraking could lower orbit quicker, but they aren't compatible with large solar panels (they would tear off)

Well, that seems to shed some light on NASA's lack of enthusiasm for it. Devil's always in the details I guess.

But if the Russians have the guts to do something like this I'd certainly be in favor of it.

RobertDyck · 2004-01-14 14:24:39

Robert, do you think it's likely the good folks in Russia may adapt Aurora or Mars Direct to those old plans? Or may have already adapted them? You say this is old news to you.
Do you think the Russians are just posturing? I hope not...I'm asking sincerely. I really don't know how they "operate," i.e. if they're given to making official announcements with set dates, and there's nothing but props in the background.

Their plan looks genuinely unique. They may adapt Aurora or Mars Direct, but the one RSC Energia proposed is all theirs.

This is just a few years old for me. Russia issued the tender a few months after I asked RSC Energia in December, 2000, if their big rocket was available for Mars Direct. I believe RSC Energia really wants to go to Mars, the question is getting their government to pay for it. After I bugged them, they pushed their government and that's probably why Russia issued the tender. I only learned about their mission plan from their response in January, 2001. By the way, I sent a link to the Winnipeg Chapter web site to Mark Wade; he publishes the Encyclopedia Astronautica. He said he never saw that mission plan before, and he has been using the Russian Freedom of Information act to get information from the Russian Space Agency. So he added this mission plan to his Encyclopedia web site.

Are they just posturing? I believe Rosaviakosmos (also know as RSA, the Russian Space Agency) wants to go to Mars as much as NASA. The question is which country's politicians are willing to pay for it. I have difficulty enough trying to figure out Canadian and American politicians; I have no hope with Russian ones.

Palomar · 2004-01-14 14:32:48

Robert, do you think it's likely the good folks in Russia may adapt Aurora or Mars Direct to those old plans? Or may have already adapted them? You say this is old news to you.
Do you think the Russians are just posturing? I hope not...I'm asking sincerely. I really don't know how they "operate," i.e. if they're given to making official announcements with set dates, and there's nothing but props in the background.
Their plan looks genuinely unique. They may adapt Aurora or Mars Direct, but the one RSC Energia proposed is all theirs.

*Thanks Robert. I do have another question: Based on your knowledge, what do you think the odds are that they can/will achieve it in 2014?

--Cindy

RobertDyck · 2004-01-14 14:53:46

what do you think the odds are that they can/will achieve it in 2014?

I believe they can, but will the Russian government decide to provide the money to do it? It has been pointed out to me that Russia has made many announcements that they will go to Mars, but their only progress has been testing components on Mir. Will the Russian government decide to make a race for Mars while the US is building a base on the Moon? I have no idea.

RobertDyck · 2004-01-14 14:59:05

The Zvezda we know today, on ISS, was to be a core module for MIR2 IIRC...
Probably the name is some acronym like DKM-2A or GGRY-ZDL (making that up, but it *was* some un-memorable acronym...)

Zvezda is the Russian word for Star.

Rxke · 2004-01-14 15:02:01

Heh... There i go again with my crumbled Engrish...

I meant the 'Zvezda' used in the Mars plan was probably called xx-123 etc...

BTW MIR means peace, i always loved that, seeing that big star going overhead, an man made-peace-star....

Spider-Man · 2004-01-14 15:05:54

Good god, they'd have to strap me into that tin can against my will. I get the feeling a lot of poor Cosmonauts are going to die.

On the other hand, if NASA would COOPERATE with them instead of competing, it seems we'd get to Mars a lot faster and a lot less expensively.

Was that the case for the ISS?

The reason Russia's long strides are so excellent is because it, along with the Chinese' goals, will bring about a new space race, and a challange I'm betting Bush won't be able to refuse. The President is being quiet about it, but all his allusions indicate a fully functional vehicle capable of going to Mars by 2008, with lots of years for testing (hence the 2015 date). But once we have the hardware, we might be able to get there in two years time.

Everyone hope.

atitarev · 2004-01-14 15:52:48

I was searching on Russian web sites. On one of the sites they were talking about looking for sponsors:

Note: The sites below are in Russian

[http://www.gazeta.ru/2002/09/19/rossijskiema.shtml]Russian Marsonauts

More optimistic (August 2003): In another link they talk about plans building a Nuclear Power Station on Mars (?!) by a government company Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star - here it's the name of the company, not the spacecraft). They talk about mission to Mars as if it's already a known fact.

[http://www.membrana.ru/lenta/?2053]Nuclear Power Station Krasnaya Zvesda to supply power to the Red Planet

They say that nothing has been said about the exact timing of the flight of Zvezda (not "Krasnaya Zvezda") but Leonid Gorshkov said they were getting ready for it.

I can't give the full translation now, guys. Posting this from work. Promise to do some more search tonight and if I find something interesting, I'll post here.

They also mention a 500-day experiment to lock 6 cosmonauts in preparation for the flight to Mars. That's crazy! I would never do that. Sitting locked and knowing you are not going anywhere, you definitely go nuts!

Ad Astra · 2004-01-14 16:16:15

I generally agree with Robert here. But I must add that Russian (public) estimates of cost and time schedule are frequently on the "highly optimistic" side. Look at the delays that hit Buran, ISS, etc. and you will see what I mean. The Russians promised that their Mig-1.44 "Stealth Fighter" was better than the F-22 and only half the cost, but it wasn't really stealthy and it was permanently grounded after one flight. This last example is a bit extreme, but it reinforces why I'm always skeptical towards optimistic proclamations from the Russian aerospace firms.

Vir Stellae · 2004-01-15 08:00:34

This is BS of the highest order.

Sometimes I think that some people here think that Russia is still the USSR.

Do you guys have any Idea how poor Russia is now? their GDP is smaller than Australia and the Netherlands... It is also samaller than our Military Budget; Russia's *entire Economy*...

They are going to need bigger Sponsors than pizza hut to put these rockets in the air. how many time has we bailed them out on the ISS? Their economy is 1/30th our size fer chrissake...

Palomar · 2004-01-15 08:13:41

Vir Stellae: "This is BS of the highest order. Sometimes I think that some people here think that Russia is still the USSR."

*On the contrary, I'm quite certain most people here are most assuredly aware of the fact that Russia -hasn't- been the USSR for over a decade and counting now.

Vir Stellae: "Do you guys have any Idea how poor Russia is now? their GDP is smaller than Australia and the Netherlands... It is also samaller than our Military Budget; Russia's *entire Economy*..."

*Um, yeah. Perhaps you missed Robert Dyck's posts wherein he emphasized the money question (repeatedly)? I believe Rik did as well. Yes, I too am aware of their financial difficulties. The emphasis of some posts yesterday was on whether the Russians have the technology to carry out a mission in 2014. See? And a lot of things can change in 10 years...(no guarantees, of course). Japan is a good example.

--Cindy

Rxke · 2004-01-15 10:25:47

and they are *not* taking their words back, it seems (or is this a simple re-write...) [http://www.spacedaily.com/2004/04011513 … 40clc.html]Spacedaily

Palomar · 2004-01-15 12:07:49

and they are *not* taking their words back, it seems (or is this a simple re-write...) [http://www.spacedaily.com/2004/04011513 … 40clc.html]Spacedaily

*Thanks for the update, Rik. I hadn't yet checked spacedaily...

"And an unnamed official at Energia on Thursday suggested that the US and Russia should join forces in Mars exploration.

'It would be much more profitable to pool efforts in a manned flight to Mars and the planetary development instead of holding the project independently,' the Interfax news agency quoted him as saying."

I'm in favor of this. It'd save the U.S. taxpayer some big $$$ too.

--Cindy

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#1 2004-01-14 13:05:52

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#2 2004-01-14 13:21:47

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#3 2004-01-14 13:23:58

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#4 2004-01-14 13:39:09

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#5 2004-01-14 13:48:44

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#6 2004-01-14 14:00:46

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#7 2004-01-14 14:01:31

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#8 2004-01-14 14:09:54

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#9 2004-01-14 14:10:28

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#10 2004-01-14 14:11:31

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#11 2004-01-14 14:11:58

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#12 2004-01-14 14:16:06

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#13 2004-01-14 14:24:39

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#14 2004-01-14 14:32:48

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#15 2004-01-14 14:53:46

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#16 2004-01-14 14:59:05

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#17 2004-01-14 15:02:01

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#18 2004-01-14 15:05:54

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#19 2004-01-14 15:52:48

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#20 2004-01-14 16:16:15

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#21 2004-01-15 08:00:34

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#22 2004-01-15 08:13:41

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#23 2004-01-15 10:25:47

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

#24 2004-01-15 12:07:49

Re: Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget

Board footer