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#26 2026-02-12 11:44:15
- Void
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- Registered: 2011-12-29
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Re: space x going to the moon instead of mars
I expect that any rocket company in the USA now will be pressed by the government to develop their systems as well as they can because foreign entities will be doing it also as well as they can. Who gets the best cost first wins at least for a time.
Mass to orbit is more important than crew to orbit. Dragon does crew to orbit well enough.
Ending Pending 
Last edited by Void (2026-02-12 11:44:42)
Is it possible that the root of political science claims is to produce white collar jobs for people who paid for an education and do not want a real job?
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#27 2026-02-12 15:51:22
- SpaceNut
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Re: space x going to the moon instead of mars
Something to remove is the Lunar ship was never intended to come home as it was for the gateway.
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#28 2026-02-13 06:30:58
- Calliban
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- Registered: 2019-08-18
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Re: space x going to the moon instead of mars
Musk is postponing, not abandoning his Humans to Mars plans, whilst SpaceX focuses on the Artemis programme. This is a positive development in my opinion that could actually accelerate the colonisation of Mars. The reason is that a manned base on the moon could be used to provide the raw materials needed for space manufacturing. Musk has already discussed developing mass drivers to this end. Using space manufacturing, we can build large ships driven by reaction engines. This would allow the transportation of large numbers of people and large quantities of equipment from low Earth orbit to low Mars orbit. Mars can ultimately become part of a triangle trade by providing volatiles to people and industry based in high Earth orbit. Industry in HEO can make SPS systems and other orbital infrastructure that is of value to customers on Earth. This plan allows a Mars colony to ultimately pay for itself, given the paucity of volatile elements on the moon.
Musks decision is probably based on an understanding that a Mars colony needs a business case. This won't exist until humanity has established a manufacturing presence in high Earth orbit. This in turn requires a human presence on the moon, along with mining and ore export infrastructure. The moon has limited value as a final destination for human beings. But it has a lot of value as a mining outpost exporting bulk metal oxides to support HEO manufacturing. That much has been understood since the 1970s.
In the longer term, Mars may supplant HEO as the solar system's premier manufacturing base. Phobos is an easier place to export ores from than the moon. Mars can provide volatile elements needed to support manufacturing in Mars orbit and this is logistically easier than sending them back to HEO. But it will take a lot of time for Martian industry to reach this point. In the medium term, Phobos provides reaction mass that can be used to drive reaction driven vessels from LMO to HEO.
Last edited by Calliban (2026-02-13 06:44:23)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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#29 2026-02-13 07:54:22
- Terraformer
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Re: space x going to the moon instead of mars
Mars may end up being the cheapest place to get elements such as copper and tin and silver for in space manufacturing. Ores only form on planets with hydrogeological processes that can concentrate them. That means Earth and maybe/likely Mars.
In the meantime, we'll have to haul them up from Earth, but fortunately Luna can provide nearly all the mass we need. Maybe even meteoric nickel-iron. And unlike Mars, it has a possible business case for mining, tourism, research, and orbital support services. Which are the reasons humans live in inhospitable Terran environments today. Though, given his haste, Musk may have a Fallen Angels scenario on his mind, where the bulk of humanity turn against space travel and there are only the people up there already to carry the flame to other worlds. A few thousand people should be viable genetically at least, especially given how highly selected they'd be. He may also have an Elysium scenario in mind too, given the talk of using orbital datacentres for the next great economic leap...
Once we have manufacturing on Luna we can start sending sollettas and iron nanorods to Mars, warm the place up somewhat before we get there.
Use what is abundant and build to last
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#30 2026-02-13 18:26:50
- SpaceNut
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Re: space x going to the moon instead of mars
We need to remember that the short starship is just a taxi with built in life support and habitat launched from earth on top of the now block 4 booster, it has a propellant load (700 - 800 mT) that does not deliver payload to orbit as the normal starship does.
It is still a fill and go system for the fuel so little loitering time once filled it then travels to the lunar gateway to which if it was to do more than a day the boiloff would bring the amount of payload it could bring to the lunar surface. After about a week it needs to launch once more back to the gateway and transfer back to the Orion.
The ship is a disposable ship that builds nothing on the moon for permanent staying as the total Nasa said Apollo on steroids' proposed.
The Falcon 9 heavy that Zubrin put forth does these things that Nasa seems to not wish any more.
The crew useable payload for astronauts to make use of include such things as suits, tools, lunar experiments, logistics of (food, water, spare parts), surface equipment (rovers) and while its indicate shelters these are probably not solar arrays or Kilowatt system for power
.
If it is able to deliver 40 mT to the surface it might fall out as
5 mT of inflatable Hab. for radiation shielding pressurized volume, life support, avionics, ECLSS, controls, power
5 mT for Airlock, ladders, other fixed surface system
5, crew useable logistics which I listed earlier as its the consumed items
If its more like several airlocks we might be closer to 12 to 15 mT for a buried Habitat
other items would be dependent on landing location.
Dr. Robert Zubrin Moon Direct: How to build a moonbase in four years
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