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#1 2003-12-10 06:34:11
Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
Predicting the future is a very imprecise process, those who try usually get it wrong.
Who in 1944 would of predicted a moon landing by 1969. Taken from another vantage who in 1968 at around the time 2001 was showing around the country would of predicted the slow down in space exploration. There were predictions of a mars landing by 1975.
When one sets out to predict the future the successful folks look for trends political and technical as predictors. Just because the infrastructure isn?t in place now doesn?t mean we can?t be on mars in 20 to 25 years. The infrastructure for the moon program was not in place in 1949. Nor was the political climate. Are there any key predictors present that may indicate we may be further along in 20 to 25 years than the current crop of pessimists (many on this board) believe.
?
portal.holo-spot.net
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#2 2003-12-10 08:55:43
- sethmckiness
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
The year is 1953, the United States is a superpower, one of only two on the planet. The US has a modern air force
The US Air Force wasn't truely modern by todays terms atleast until the late seventies. by the seventies the Air Force had point to point and spoke to hub Satellite communications, with various levels of encryption. A fully developed fleet of modern aircraft to do just about anything possible in the air, with a fully capable logistics to back it up. in 1953 the planes were basicly alightly faster versions of P51s and P47s used in World War Two. I should know, since I am 20,000 feet below their battleground, aka Mig Alley.
? Discovery of Microbial life on Mars or one of Jupiters moon
Discovery of living Microbial life on Mars could pose more of a threat to future missions then many think. Depending on how much the Greens unite, they could stall almost all efforts to continue exploration of Mars.
? ? Discovery of Extraterrestrial technology
Yes, I agree with you, but I would not even wager odds on this one.
?
? A threat from space, such as impact of a NEO object,
IMHO, we are ill equipped to handle such a threat, and unless we have a window of 5 to 10 years, I don't see any sort of Heroic Armagedeon(sp) type ending. Realistically we lack the technology and expertise to do it. I do have the copy of the Air and Space Smithsonian at home that talks about the movie and said the only truelly unrealistical part of the movie was they didn't use enough explosives. the rest was possible.......... According to physicists from MIT..
But, anyway, to get to the point... 
Being optimistic won't get as anywhere predictions won't, without action, thoughts are thoughts.
We are only limited by our Will and our Imagination.
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#3 2003-12-10 09:12:33
Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
reply to sethmckiness
Not sure what was relevant about your reply to my air force remark, as to a 5 to 10 year window. I think more like 10 to 15 years would be more resonable. Yes perhaps we could destroy or deflect the threat with nukes. Or send unmanned probes to try to deflect it. But all that time the threat hangs over the heads of the population, the probablity of sucess is quite low. Meantime what happens psycologically , what about the world markets. All I'm saying that if you have enough of a window, say 10 to 15 years, it might make more sense to send a manned mission to try to deflect the threat. I doubt destroying it with nukes would work, what was in amagedon was very scientifically inaccurate. I hope I do better with the novel I'm attempting to write. I'm only starting my resource now. I know more about human nature than engineering.
portal.holo-spot.net
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#4 2003-12-14 10:50:41
- sethmckiness
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
I do not intend to start a yelling match but physicists from MIT and NASA thought other then the amount of explosives used, that the movie was accurate.. maybe a bit unlikely, but definitly possible..
The 25 years between lets say 1953 to 1978- The Air Force was completely different. the fastest plane in 1953 was the X-2, fastest Jet was the F-86. the B-36 was finishing up development with the B-47 on the Horizon. simply radars were being developed. There still was dogfighting.. No ICBMS. NO Communications Satellites, no digital communications, everything prettymuch vacuum tube based.
1978-DSCS satellite system and Milstar deployed
Advanced avionics and fly by wire with either the F-15 or F16 respectively.
B-1 being developed
current fighter bombers include
f-106
f-111
A-7
A-10
B-52
Full line of ICBMs
GLCMS
on the verge of Satellite defence system
Full digital communications including the DEBB (europe)
etc
etc
etc,
ie completely different Air Force, 6 years old instead of 30 years old.
We are only limited by our Will and our Imagination.
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#5 2003-12-14 11:27:09
- flashgordon
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
I'm not to sure I'd worry about getting to mars so soon either; everyone thinks the world is going to end, but instead, it is just going to fuel ever more science and technology funding; if anything, most of the deaths will just take out the anti-science buffs. Yes, there will be global warming deaths, pandemic fevers deaths, not to sure about another world war. The business men who are at the top of the stock market are in charge of the world; today it is the oil guys, by 2010 and maybe a little before, it will be all the nanotechnologists no matter what your definition. India innovated raising kids to do science; they were cranking out a 100K scientist, engineers a year; now germany and some oriental country is getting into the act.
In the end, the world will be transformed by 2020 and ready for molecular manufacturing.
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#6 2003-12-14 15:07:16
- Earthman
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
Hi, my first post. My uneducated opinion:
1.A private, manned Mars landing mission is within our grasp.
2. We can only afford a one way mission.
3. Only one highly educated and experienced person can go.
4. This person will die on Mars after gathering data for the remainder of his/her life.
5. This expedition must be organized internationally and apart from the military industrial complex.
Any volunteers?
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#7 2003-12-14 15:13:09
- Earthman
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
Hurry up! Mars is moving away at an ASTRONOMICAL rate! we have to do this thing now people, for humanity.
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#8 2003-12-14 17:28:40
- flashgordon
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
it may be going away at an astronomical rate, but it goes back and forth! Not only that, but it will be back as it goes around in circles!
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#9 2003-12-14 18:31:37
Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
Hi all,
First off, don't expect quick replies or rebuttals to my posts I have a life too. Secondly whats the big deal with all the comments to my little statement about the air force, I don't pretend to be a historian, the point of the comment was that nuclear power transformed the navy, especially the submarine force. And That a similiar tranformation may take place shortly with space. Adding nuclear power to the equation changes everything. Nasa highly critical stepping stones approach which I don't entirely believe in says you develop the enabling technologies first which gives you the abilities to reach for a number of different destination possibilities.
I hope the handwritng that is emerging is that the US may be moving towards both developing new propulsion sources and startup of a sustainable moon program . With landings at intervals of months rather than years.
As to Amageddon, If I recall the Mit folks said the movie was technically possible but not probable. There were a lot a problems. How they got to the asteroid for instance, Some type of modified shuttle . 2) There is the possibility if you fail to completely destroy the asteroid you may end up with many fragments on collision with earth rather than one body.
I believe the current proposals are to try to alter the bodies course over some period of time perhaps using ion thrusters of some type.
As to manned vs. unmanned operations. How is the population going to handle knowledge of the end of the world. If its going to be 100 or more years there probably will be little panic, 50 years , more panic but not chaos. but if you had a ten to 15 year window of a civilization destroying impact what kind of panic will there be. How will the world leaders handle damage control. Wait a few years and send a few small unmanned ds-1 class probes ladden with explosives to try to destory it. Thats going to do much to calm the population.
"My fellow americans....We won't know until several hours after the impact if we were sucessfull ..... .
I suspect that the only way those 10 or 15 years are going to resemble anything normal in terms of the financial markets , consumer spending, population growth is if the world leaders build it into a post september 11th or post pearl harbor type operation...We will put the resources of the entire planet into defeating this threat.
Read my story when I post it and judge . ok, thats all I ask. 
portal.holo-spot.net
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#10 2003-12-14 21:42:55
- Josh Cryer
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
Like you said, it's impossible to predict. Tomorrow, someone could come up with good replicating technology and land it on the moon/Mars, invalidating every premise anyone had ever envisioned. 
Personally, these 20 year time frames are way too far away for me to handle. Inside I'm an optimist, but when I see where we're going with technology, and the political motivations, and so on, I tend to be somewhat pessimistic. If only I had a couple of million bucks.
I'm optimistic we'll get into space eventually. I'm pessimistic that I'll get a chance to do anything unless I'm really lucky.
Some useful links while MER are active. [url=http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.html]Offical site[/url] [url=http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/MM_NTV_Web.html]NASA TV[/url] [url=http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/mer2004/]JPL MER2004[/url] [url=http://www.spaceflightnow.com/mars/mera/statustextonly.html]Text feed[/url]
--------
The amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth totals some 3.9 million exajoules a year.
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#11 2003-12-15 09:50:48
- clark
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
I don't think it's that hard to predict... ???
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#12 2003-12-15 10:49:39
- sethmckiness
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
I think that the we will go into space, but opposed to pessimism being a problem, I would say it would just be apathy.
We will back to the moon, we will go beyond the Moon, short of some massive extinction killing us all off. It's just when.. Definitly by 2100 we will have a man on Mars.. We all know we could be there in 10 years, or could have been there 10 years ago.
There is no new technology needing to be developed. The two hurdles are Policy and money. I am waiting to hear what Bush says on Wednesday. It may remove one or both of those issues!
We are only limited by our Will and our Imagination.
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#13 2003-12-15 14:23:55
- dickbill
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
I think that the we will go into space, but opposed to pessimism being a problem, I would say it would just be apathy.
In Christopher Colomb times, you couldn't dare and most importantly you SHOULDN'T try to adventure of the great Ocean of the West, because:
1)The Earth is flat, so obviously your ship will just fall in the GREAT ABYSS OF THE END OF THE WORLD
2) if you go there, a great DRAGON with an open mouth is just waiting for you.
3) why to go WEST since to reach India, going EAST was enough and sufficient (if we admit the earth is not flat) ?
4) Its too expensive, equivalent to 2 or 3 royal festins or party.
5) Other have tried before and failed (favorite reason)
6) I am not sure what the Holly Papal Inquisition wil think about these heretical hypothesis...be careful.
etc.
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#14 2003-12-15 16:04:19
- Palomar
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
In Christopher Colomb times, you couldn't dare and most importantly you SHOULDN'T try to adventure of the great Ocean of the West, because:
1)The Earth is flat, so obviously your ship will just fall in the GREAT ABYSS OF THE END OF THE WORLD
2) if you go there, a great DRAGON with an open mouth is just waiting for you.
3) why to go WEST since to reach India, going EAST was enough and sufficient (if we admit the earth is not flat) ?
4) Its too expensive, equivalent to 2 or 3 royal festins or party.
5) Other have tried before and failed (favorite reason)
6) I am not sure what the Holly Papal Inquisition wil think about these heretical hypothesis...be careful.etc.
*LOL!! That was great, dickbill.
--Cindy
We all know [i]those[/i] Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...
--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)
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#15 2003-12-15 16:12:29
- Josh Cryer
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
Heheh! dickbill, our forum comedian. Gotta love 'em.
But really, clark, your predictions can (and I think might) change directions every 4 years, since they tend to hinge on the actions of a given presidential mandate.
Some useful links while MER are active. [url=http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.html]Offical site[/url] [url=http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/MM_NTV_Web.html]NASA TV[/url] [url=http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/mer2004/]JPL MER2004[/url] [url=http://www.spaceflightnow.com/mars/mera/statustextonly.html]Text feed[/url]
--------
The amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth totals some 3.9 million exajoules a year.
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#16 2003-12-15 16:19:14
- clark
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
The trick is not to predict what people will do, but predict what events will make them choose.
Events, as before, will give us the mandate, not the individual.
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#17 Yesterday 08:44:50
- Mars_B4_Moon
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- Registered: 2006-03-23
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Re: Not enough optomists - hard to predict 25 years out
the thing is people predicted the fall of the Soviets and many predicted the 'Rise of China'
an old topic maybe worth bumping
Western optimism was there, however there were distractions a Terror Attack and hunting bin Laden...where was he hiding, a War in Iraq which destabilized a region, the growth of ISIS, a War in Afghanistan 2001–2021 and just when it looked like 'War Is a Racket is a speech' might become relevant...in comes Putin during a sleepy old Joe Biden and Kamala Harris term and its suddenly war in Eastern Europe the Ukrainian fighting off an invasion,
then a new War in trying to get Iran to 'submit'
money was spent on a future...but then war came knocking again
Europe is decaying turning inward, Japan doesnt do war anymore, it builds nice cities and yet it stagnates
China’s tech push: Why AI is only one part of Beijing’s five-year plan
https://www.cnbctv18.com/technology/chi … 002233.htm
Driverless Taxis Arrive at Chek Lap Kok: Chinese AI Takes the World’s Toughest Driving Test
https://www.bastillepost.com/global/art … iving-test
Future We Imagined vs. The One We Actually Live In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZT4MY7cAWw
Future We Imagined vs. The One We Actually Live In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZT4MY7cAWw
Beyond The Soviets
https://postcapitalism.substack.com/p/b … he-soviets
The British Proto-Transhumanists
The history of Russian Cosmism, as the name implies, has its origins in Russia/USSR; therefore, when a non-Russian/Non-Soviet figure comes up in Cosmist/Proto-Transhumanist history, it is definitely worth noting! This diverse history tends to reflect the current standing of the Transhumanist Community, encompassing numerous ideologies and approaches.
J.B.S Haldane
For example, the U.S. Transhumanist Party Timeline rightfully acknowledges J.B.S. Haldane’s 1923 book “Daedalus; or, Science and the Future” as well as his standing as a Marxist. As Santiago Javier Armesilla Conde points out in “A Marxist Transhumanism?”, Haldane was not just a theorist; he was an active militant in the Communist Party of Great Britain and helped the International Brigades fight against the fascists during the Spanish Civil War.
Haldane contributed to evolutionary biology and population genetics, helping build the modern evolutionary synthesis with his 1932 book “The Causes of Evolution”. In “Daedalus”, he argued that the greatest revolutions of the future wouldn’t just be mechanical, but biological. He coined the term “ectogenesis”, better known as artificial wombs, which he believed would free humanity from biological limitations and shake up traditional social hierarchies, as well as coining the terms “clone” and “cloning”. As noted in the Marxists Internet Archive Glossary’s portion on JBS Haldane, his ideas were so influential that he served as the basis for the biologist Shearwater in Aldous Huxley’s novel “Antic Hay”, and directly inspired the hatcheries in Huxley’s “Brave New World”.
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (Yesterday 09:05:46)
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