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As the topic suggests, as of today President Trump has allocated $25B in defense spending to create a "Golden Dome" Homeland Missile Defense System against incoming cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. The bill is anticipated to spend approximately $175B on ground and space-based missile defense systems, with initial rollout and construction taking place over the next three years.
President Trump's response follows on the heels of the apparent weaponization of space-based assets by Russia and China. Russia, specifically, has undertaken development of anti-satellite weapons carrying nuclear warheads. Both Russia and China have already deployed electronic warfare satellites intended to disrupt communications satellites and to blind reconnaissance satellites. Since 2015, China has deployed some 490 military satellites that would ostensibly be used in conjunction with their long range hypersonic and ballistic weapons to target their adversaries.
This article linked below from 2024 details US diplomatic efforts to attempt to deescalate the weaponization of space, which Russia vetoed and ignored:
Is There a Path to Counter Russia’s Space Weapons?
There are a number of other articles from 2024 outlining various changes to Russian and Chinese use of space-based military assets.
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I quite liked this one:
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There are problems with this idea.
Firstly, it could trigger a new nuclear arms race. If aggressor nations know that the US has a defence system that can shoot down 90% of incoming missiles, will they respond by increasing their total warhead count 10x? This would reverse arms reduction treaties.
Secondly, it is relatively easy to destroy a satellite, simply by putting another satellite on a collision course. That satellite could be a cubesat, or even a ball bearing released by another satellite. If a conflict starts in space, it wouldn't take many such events to result in Kessler syndrome. If that happens, all space infrastructure becomes useless. We would have to wait until atmospheric drag clears out low orbital space before launching anything again. That could take decades.
Whilst space is vast, Low Earth Orbit is a strategic choke point that all nations must cross to get anywhere else. If it gets fowled up with debris, then everyones space ambitions are over for decades at least.
Last edited by Calliban (2025-05-21 15:46:31)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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Calliban,
The Chinese and Russians have been building lots of new nuclear weapons, but I doubt many people have been paying attention. The Chinese have recently built far more nuclear weapons than they ever stockpiled historically, which started well before any missile defense system was announced. If that's what you're afraid of, Russia and China are already doing that, and they're not going to stop because someone there thinks a nuclear war is somehow winnable when you have enough warheads.
Given the sheer quantity of satellites already in space, if the Kessler Syndrome outcome was a probable outcome, then it should've happened already. There are over 28,000 satellites in space, 55,000 pieces of debris that we can track, and possibly as many as 170 million smaller pieces considered dangerous to spacecraft that are too small to track using current methods. We wouldn't necessarily have to wait decades because we could use lasers to vaporize little bits and pieces of satellites.
The US is moving towards near-satellites, high altitude drones, and alternative methods of providing battlefield communications and reconnaissance. That means there will be fewer opportunities to create large debris fields when the satellites are low cost commercial commodity hardware skimming through the upper atmosphere for a few months at a time, at most, before upgraded satellites take their place.
Doing nothing in response is one potential course of action, but not one likely to lead to desirable results for all us civilians who would lose our lives if Russia or China felt emboldened to launch their nuclear weapons at us. Is President Trump's plan "the best plan"? Probably not, but thus far it's the only solution on offer from our military industrial apparatus. This plan most certainly did not originate with President Trump, either. Presidents from both political parties, most notably Presidents Reagan, Bush Sr, Bush Jr, Obama, Biden, and now Trump have all spent large sums of money on missile defense capabilities. That means there never was any other realistic plan. President Clinton operated in a world where Russia and China were functionally crippled by Russia and China, so he was able to capitalize on the "peace dividend" at the end of the Cold War. Sadly, we no longer live in that world.
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