Politics

Void · 2025-03-28 14:55:15

It is not with enjoyment that I might suggest some brutal notions on this.

Indeed, if a Tariff is applied to a car from Canada, yes, the price of that car goes up, but soon, car production will go up in the USA, provided there is sufficient labor at a reasonable price. Cold blooded logic says we can steal your plant and then even your trained labor. It appears that we may get robot labor that may cost say $3.40 an hour and can do perhaps 70-80% of the tasks.

As for your minerals, you will still sell them to us, unless you have a better alternative.

It is a rather brutal future for Canada, perhaps. Or have I missed something?

I am not actually enjoying pointing these things out.

Russia is like any other, they want to win. They may be more of warrior than farmer than the more south and western Europeans, and that needs to be kept in mind at all times.

Ending Pending

I think Mexico will do nicely as they have a good market. But they may either have to drop their tariffs and work with us or make their own little world. Canada may not be as fortunate.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-28 15:00:16)

RobertDyck · 2025-03-28 15:54:11

Void, I don't think you understand just how betrayed Canadians feel. If you think our labour will move to the US, you're mistaken. Perhaps some recent immigrants, who don't think of themselves as Canadian. But Canadians won't. Considering Calliban is so concerned about Muslims, are you? Do you want the Muslims who came to Canada? We already have offers for Canadian oil from China, and liquefied natural gas from Germany and the rest of Europe. Canada has a free-trade agreement with Europe, Prime Minister Mark Carney has already visited Europe to establish stronger trade.

USA imports a lot of oil. "Drill baby drill" makes a nice slogan, but won't solve anything. There is only so much oil in a deposit in the ground. When that is pumped out, that's it, no more oil from that well. "Drill baby drill" will open new wells to replace old ones that go dry, but will not increase American oil production. Don't forget, conventional oil in the US is long since gone. The US has been drilling off shore, and the oil spill in the Gulf was a very deep well. Both in deep water, and the oil was very deep underground. The most difficult to get oil is all that's left. Fracking is a way to get oil out of shale that hasn't finished "cooking". There's some oil, but the shale has to be fractured to release it. This means don't expect oil production to increase. Maximum effort will result in maintaining current production.

USA gets 60% of it's imported oil from Canada. Yes, that means more oil from Canada than all other countries combined. Canadian oil is also running short. Canada is extracting the tar sands. (Those who play with words call them "oil sands".) Canadian oil is sold to the US below world market price, so Canada has supplied copious quantities of cheap oil, and only wants to continue. Why punish Canada for that? Say "thank you".

USA also gets natural gas and electricity from Canada. Electricity comes from hydro-electric dams. You need a river with a large volume of water, and a significant altitude drop for electric generation to work. That only occurs certain places. Hydro dams cost more to build than other power plans, but once built they cost much less to operate. Over the life of a dam, cost per kilowatt-hour is lower than any other power plant. Canada has power to sell, and has been doing so at low prices. Again, say "thank you".

Trump tries to claim that Canada has been "ripping off" America. But other than oil, natural gas, and electricity, Canada buys more from the US than it sells. That means a trade surplus, not a deficit. Besides, a trade deficit means citizens of the US buy more goods than they sell. In a free market, citizens can buy what they want. No one is "ripping off" anyone. Trump doesn't understand basic economics. And the trade "deficit" with Canada is tiny compared to total trade between our two nations. And the trade "deficit" is smaller than the US has with Vietnam. So he's obsessing over something that isn't a problem.

Softwood lumber is another area where American companies complain. Some American lumber companies complain about imported Canadian lumber. However, when George W. Bush was president, the US created barriers that effectively halted all lumber from Canada. US producers were not able to produce enough to meet US market demand. They even cut trees from national forests, leaving a 30 foot strip of trees along the road so drivers don't see how the forest is denuded. Even with that, they were not able to produce enough lumber, had to import from Europe. Realize lumber from Europe is more expensive because it has to be shipped across the ocean.

Also realize Trump tariffs are not retaliating for anything. He's just being spiteful. During his inauguration address, he suggested an "External Revenue Agency" to collect money from other countries. But again, other countries don't pay tariffs. You can't charge other countries anything. He just doesn't understand how things work. I suspect Putin bragged about getting money from Siberia and remote parts of Russia, and how the Soviet Union got resources and money from Republics that are no longer part of Russia. Putin wants Ukraine for its population, and its resources. He wants to get rich at expense of Ukraine. So he most likely convinced Trump to try to get money from countries under America's "influence". But that's not how the free world works. Canada is not a vassal state of the US. Canada is an equal partner.

Again, Putin convinced Trump to do stupid things to make America weak and poor. That isn't by accident, that's on purpose. Putin joined the KGB in 1975; he's been lying, cheating, and back-stabbing for half a century now. Putin is an expert at it. And he has Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, who joined the Russian diplomatic core in 1972. Lavrov has been lying, cheating, and back-stabbing for 53 years. I don't think Trump knows what he's dealing with. If Trump were smart, he would have people around him who could tell him what's going on, and point out when he's been lied to or manipulated, so Trump could fix it before he makes a complete ass of himself. But Trump is surrounded by yes-men. During his first term, whenever someone tried to tell Trump he's been duped, Trump fired him. So Trump's people today are scared to open their mouths.

Void · 2025-03-28 16:30:58

Thank You Canada!

I have no hugs and kisses from the Orange Man, thanks be. He is a businessman. You know what to expect.

I have a pretty good idea how much unwelcome there is for what I say. But it is reality. It is the Robots more than anything. Don't blame Elon Musk or Tesla, there are humanoid robots being developed all over the world.

I hope you guys do get your pipelines. Good luck with that. Maybe Oil though BC, Natural Gas up to the Arctic? My understanding is Quebec will not allow pipelines, but maybe if we make Canada angry enough the Quebeckers will roll over.

It made the rust belt pretty upset when the jobs went to China, and to "Right to Work" states. I think we are over it by now.

Back to Oil, it needs to be said, that at this time for now, markets are more important than sources.
That is why some oil sources are shut down, such as Venezuela. If Russia gets back in the game, then more oil is globally available. So, yes you should likely solicit markets in the Pacific, if you can get BC to let pipelines though.

I am a long-term solar optimist though some here don't like that. The point is the USA and Mexico are likely to cash in on Solar, and maybe wind. Even though that is not President Trumps sort of thing. We will likely need less Oil.

I am trying to promote a market for making Shade Balls from Carbon sources, so that Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas may continue with a market, by making these Balls. Here is where I am making an attempt to promote it: https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=11053

But it may be that these balls could be made from CO2 extracted from the Atmosphere.

I really hope that Canada can get what it may like, other than the death of my country.

Good Luck!

Last edited by Void (2025-03-28 16:46:09)

kbd512 · 2025-03-28 16:41:14

RobertDyck,

Garry Kasparov doesn't speak for Russian leadership and he cannot know how 143M+ Russians feel about the war in Ukraine. I'm sure some support it while others hate it. I would be willing to bet almost anything that how you feel about the war is directly proportional to your involvement in it. I've never known anyone who was enthusiastic about the proposition of getting shot at again. Some random Ukrainian woman doesn't speak for the Ukrainian government or people, either. Why do you even bring up these irrelevant anecdotes? Similarly, I don't ask the neighborhood football champ how he feels about spending more money on the space program vs the food stamps program. I will listen to what he has to say out of common decency and respect for others, but then I consider the source of the opinion and knowledge of the person I'm talking to. I seriously doubt either of the anecdotes from those two individuals is based upon breadth and depth of knowledge about public opinion on the war in Ukraine.

I'm not looking at personally-held opinions of non-decision-makers. I am taking the publicly stated and reiterated policy positions of elected or appointed European Union and Russian leaders at face value. Kaja Kallas is the European Union's foreign policy minister. She's going around telling people she wants to break up Russia, and that the European Union should be the ones to do that. I'm not a Russian and I'm sure as hell not Putin, so I can't pretend to understand their interpretation of those statements, but I would imagine that if Kaja Kallas went around telling people she wanted the European Union to "break up" the United States into a bunch of smaller countries, that would go over here in America about as well as a Lead balloon.

Glenn Greenwald is merely reporting on what European Union leaders have publicly stated. If you think that is "crap", then it's not Glenn Greewald's crap, it's Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen's crap. Give credit where credit is due. Try addressing the message for once, instead of the messenger. Please try addressing what Kaja Kallas and Ursula von der Leyen are telling people in public forums about what they think European Union policy should be towards Russia. If you have a problem with what Kaja Kallas or Ursula von der Leyen have stated, then focus your outrage on them, rather than Glenn Greenwald.

RobertDyck · 2025-03-28 18:46:50

Void,
the Trans-Mountain pipeline eXpansion (TMX) was completed and operational May 1, 2024. That twinned an existing pipeline, and the new pipe is larger so it much more than doubles capacity. The port in Burnaby (beside Vancouver) that loads oil onto tanker ships has also been expanded. It's done, it's operational.

Coastal GasLink is a natural gas pipeline to a port on the BC coast. It was completed in November 2023. However, the liquefication plant, required to load LNG onto ships, is not operational. It's expected to be operational some time this year.

It would be much safer for ships carrying both oil and LNG to use the Panama Canal. The Northwest Passage is covered in ice most of the year, navigable very briefly in the summer. Most ships travel too slow to get to the other side before it ices up again. Some ships have tried, but they always end up requiring an icebreaker. Parry Channel is wide and deep, but it's quite far north. Some ships have tried to use Coronation Gulf for the western half, because it's farther south, but there are places where the water is shallow with large sharp rocks. And the western entrance to Coronation Gulf has a lot of small islands.

The current Premier of Quebec said he would allow existing pipelines to operate, but would not allow construction of any new pipeline. This does raise an interesting possibility. The pipeline from Portland Maine to Montreal used to supply foreign oil. It shut down when the pipe from Alberta to Montreal became operational. The port in Maine is owned by a commercial corporation, not government. They want to earn revenue. There has been a suggestion to export Alberta oil, but environmental activists claim Alberta oil is "icky" so don't want it. The town council of Portland refused to ban it. So the environmental activists claim the loading process would pollute their skies. When loading oil onto a ship, vapours can build up. If the vapours build up too much, they could become explosive. To prevent that the air over the oil is drawn in to ducts which directs the vapours to a smoke stack on shore where they're safely burned. There are several solutions to ensure that doesn't pollute their skies. I could describe some ideas I had, but I'm sure professional petroleum engineers have better ones. Another catch is the pipe is not rated for the higher pressure required for diluted bitumen. That's Ok, the pipe was designed for natural crude oil; it can transport both natural and synthetic crude oil. Converting bitumen into synthetic crude oil makes it more profitable anyway. So it's just a matter of convincing the Portland Maine town council to allow it. Would Donald Trump create an obstacle to using a port in Maine? Line 3 extends from the Alberta oil patch to outside Chicago. Line 9 connects to line 3 there, then goes south of Lake Michigan to north of Detroit and into Canada. American oil could be transported through Line 9 to Montreal then on to Portland Maine. Would Donald Trump allow Canada to use the port if American oil companies could use it too?

Of course another option is to build a pipeline from Montreal to Lévis Quebec, across the river from Quebec City. That oil refinery currently receives crude oil by ship. The pipeline could deliver Canadian oil to the refinery, and that port could be used to export Canadian oil. But that requires the Quebec government allowing a new pipeline.

Void · 2025-03-28 19:04:50

Well, that sounds good. Maybe there is a suitable reality in the future that you can be comfortable with.

Ending Pending

Void · 2025-03-29 11:34:41

I like her work: https://www.prometheanaction.com/the-sa … h-29-2025/ Quote:

Saturday Wrap-Up
The Saturday Wrap-Up - On April 2, Trump Fathers the Next America, Elites on the Edge of Bankruptcy - March 29, 2025
Trump implements his full tariff plan on Tuesday as Wall Street and the global elites are doing everything they can to stop him. But the unions and working class, seeing a future for the first time in years, are deserting the Democrats in droves.
Barbara Boyd
Barbara Boyd

I think it is becoming apparent that much of what was said is very close to correct, by my method of measure.

The problem with Europe in my opinion is that it has remembered the Roman Empire, and is trying to conquest, the Yamnaya. Our efforts to assist Europe have been hijacked by this process.

It was already apparent by calculations I made that Scandanavia, and Poland and such were going to become a bit more powerful relative to Russia. But by joining with the archaic revival of the Roman Empire wanna-be, they have signed up for a bad plan. It was already likely that something mutually beneficial could have been arranged between the USA and Russia, and Europe could have participated. But in wanting to exercise dictatorial powers over both Russia and the USA, they have annoyed a lot of people.

I would advise the Nordics and the East Europeans, to leave the casino, and be satisfied with your winnings. You have had good fortune. Don't kill the golden goose.

Here in the USA, we are between the two worlds, and like it that way. At times people for the East Coast try to be uppity, and the west coast is just weird just now.

Mexico is quite satisfied to be part Iberian, and part Pseudo-Siberian as far as I can tell. We can probably work with them.

But Canada seems to be acting like it is a French and British colony implanted among the Pseudo-Siberians. That is probably not a good long-term way to be. I advise you to be North American, and not the subjects of the Roman Empire Wanna-Be's.

For the sake of the world, we need to work with the Russians, and it is not pleasing to have sabotage done to that effort.

I believe such is the current flow of things.

Probably it would be good to get some consideration from Canada and Europe. It would probably be good for you.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 11:49:05)

Void · 2025-03-29 12:36:27

This is fun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KarzQIUilug
Quote:

YUGE TRUMP COURT WIN!
Law of Self Defense

It seems to boil down to a lower court, instructing DOGE, to undo, what the Executive branch did to entities such as USAID.

A higher court ruled that it was not acceptable to demand that.

DOGE does not have the power to do the Executive actions, the President and his officials do. DOGE can only advise, it cannot do or undo, Executive actions.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 12:40:21)

RobertDyck · 2025-03-29 13:12:29

The age of empires ended with the World Wars. Putin is trying to revive the Russian Empire. They're weak and poor. Aligning yourself with a primitive, backward, weak and poor wanna-benwho doesn't understand that the age of empires is over,Neill only drag you down to their level. Rural Russia doesn't even have running water of flush toilets. The average income of a working person in Russia is US$14,881 per year. Is that what you want America to become?

America started with the 13 colonies, all British. During the War of Independence France helped the fledgling United States. France provided rifles and even uniforms. Russia didn't contrive at all. Midwest of the United States has a lot of immigrants from Scandinavia and Germany. Again, Russia was not involved. WTF are you reading?

RobertDyck · 2025-03-29 13:39:33

Business Insider: This map shows how the US really has 11 separate 'nations' with entirely different cultures

Void · 2025-03-29 14:04:17

Let me start by confessing a mistake. My previous two posts were intended for "Index» Not So Free Chat» Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:"

I screwed up. I am willing to move them, as I recognize this topic as yours, and it does not please me to upset you.

It is your choice, I can move the two posts, or I can respond. I did not want to challenge you in your own domain, but it seems that I have.

I will come back later and will see what you have decided.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 14:06:40)

RobertDyck · 2025-03-29 14:55:01

It's fine, we can debate. This is intended for politics. But read the article from Business Insider. It explains a lot. People from the Atlantic coast who trust government vs Midwest who don't. Also shows a lot of similarities between Canada and USA. I live in Winnipeg, on the border of "The Midlands" and "The Far West". Justin Trudeau is from Quebec (New France) and the Liberal base is southern Quebec and southern Ontario (The Midlands). Canadian Conservative base is from The Far West.

At a rally for the Conservatives right now. Amazing how many shows up. We're in the midst of a federal election. Looks good for the Conservatives.

Void · 2025-03-29 16:19:14

Due to my intrusive mistake, I will try a bit harder to explain:

Relating to #2857: The British people are not regarded as bad. Rather perhaps the corpse of the previous British Empire echoing around the former possessions. Several forms of contamination ride with that zombie.

My own diagnosis is that we do not want the "Dominant Man", we prefer the "Capable Man". My view is that the evil "Dominant Man" is greatly represented in the very old worlds, including the Middle East. It is a process where the brains have been eaten, and domination is regarded as good, and Christianity is regarded as stupid. Some of these evil forces ride though the corps of the previous empires, to pollute our parts of the world. So, you don't misunderstand me, I believe that many from those places who may have talents come here and are useful, but many more only come to bring brain death to us. They killed the Muslim civilization around the 13th century.

That is not necessarily what other people believe in the post #2857, but it is my current theory.

This is not a moment where I need to convert you to such a political diagnosis, I recognize that that is not likely to be useful for you, and I don't need you to. It could even be dangerous for you if you offended some high demon of power (A human).

That is one vector of the diaspora. The other one is the collision of the Pseudo Siberians with the Migrant Europeans in North America. I don't think that there was much representative government in Europe prior to that. Then the lights turned on.

When I see the British and French lusting for a blood bath, I feel that that is the lights going out. And I don't want America anywhere in that.

So, to us the Siberians and Russians are not so terrible. After all the so-called natives here, could be pretty fierce, to each other and also to new arrivals. I am not at all willing to see America put to service to subjugate the Eastern Orthodox Churches to the descendants of the Roman Churches. That is not what we exist for. Our recent maneuvers seem to be the very best at killing off middle eastern Christians. It is very suspicious. Is this to kill off "Heretics"? We are having the lovely display of the killing of Syrian Christians now.

America should not be facilitating that for the Roman Church, if that is what is happening. The Church should not have the powers of Ceasar.

The entrance of the USA into WWII seems to have been for worthy but sad reasons, but now the use of the aftermath of that to do things that are not at all related to ending criminal governance, is very wrong, and I deeply resent that our nation was deceived and taken captive by certain powers. And now we want release from that.

As for post #2858: The demons are trying to use "Dominant Man" methods to have unearned power, and they are violating our culture and constitution. It is glorious to see America fighting off the evil demonic zombies from other lands, and those of our own as well.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 16:40:50)

Void · 2025-03-29 16:42:29

In response to your posts. I am sort of pulling back to watch what happens. Canada is pulled between worlds, so that is tough for you.

I guess I will risk giving you a diagram of how I think North America is:

So, I believe that India is our compliment, both Older and Younger than us.

Europe and South America are seeming to be unstable, North America and India show stability.

Enough

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 16:58:13)

RobertDyck · 2025-03-29 16:46:55

I understand you're trying to be consiliatory. However, Russia is on the warpath. They don't believe in Christianity, the only church the Russian government tollerates is Russian Orthodox. That church doesn't have clergy, they have FSB agents dressed in costumes pretending to be clergy. Ukraine reports all Christian churches other than Russian Orthodox in occupied territories are attacked by soldiers. I believe them, and they have pictures. Do we believe it's any different in Russia?

Putin does not believe in freedom or democracy. He believes in power. He's a dictator, and engaging in war to conquer and annex their neighbor: Ukraine. Putin has said when he's done, he'll invade all of eastern Europe. Putin has explicitly stated he considers anything that was under control of the Soviet Union or anything part of the Russian Empire under the Tzars to belong to Russia. Stalin intended to conquer all of Europe and tried to subvert Canada and USA. You think Putin won't? If he gets everyy he wants, he'll just want more.

Void · 2025-03-29 17:00:45

It is not much deferent than how the than how the western church appeared Caesar was to some extent a faker for political reasons.

Caesar had what he had been given for the purpose he was to serve, and the church itself was under the guidance of higher power as well, if you believe that. If you don't believe that then why care if the culture of Eastern Orthodox is infiltrated.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 17:01:05)

RobertDyck · 2025-03-29 17:34:30

The point is Russia is not Christian. The Soviets outlawed all religion, citizens only allowed to hear government propaganda. Russia is now using the pretense to spout more government propaganda. The Russian Orthodox Church is not "Christian", is propaganda. And Russia does not tolerate any other church.

Void · 2025-03-29 17:56:48

It is not possible for you to know that: Quote:

The point is Russia is not Christian. The Soviets outlawed all religion, citizens only allowed to hear government propaganda. Russia is now using the pretense to spout more government propaganda. The Russian Orthodox Church is not "Christian", is propaganda. And Russia does not tolerate any other church.

And if we have use of the Russians, really that is not so much under your authority.

I am not looking to cuddle with Russians, just to survive. And no you are not able to determine if that is a good or bad decision. Neither of us know for sure.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 17:58:04)

RobertDyck · 2025-03-29 20:43:40

Void wrote:

I am not looking to cuddle with Russians, just to survive. And no you are not able to determine if that is a good or bad decision. Neither of us know for sure.

Look at Russia's past. Look at past events that were similar. And look at what Putin has said, and what other Russians say. That tells you what's coming. Putin has filed a document stating he considers everything that was part of the Soviet Union or under Soviet control to belong to Russia now. He also claims everything that used to be part of the Russian Empire under the Tzars. Below is a map of the western part of Russian Empire in 1914, at the beginning of World War 1. The US purchased Alaska in 1867, but Putin claims anything that was ever part of the Russian Empire, so that includes Alaska.

Look at this map. It includes all of Ukraine, Moldova, a strip of Romania between Moldova and the Carpathian mountains, what is now the southern part of Poland, all of Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia, and all of Finland. Putin said everything that was controlled by the Soviet Union, so that includes all of what is now Poland, as well as East Germany. Russian TV keeps threatening invade Poland and the Blatic States, but they also threaten East Germany including Berlin.

Strategically Russia would want borders that are more easily defensible. That would mean the Baltic Sea, Sudeten mountains (Sudetes), Carpathian mountains, and Black Sea. Currently Russia has a 5,000 km border in Europe, but you can't drive a tank division through a sea, or through mountains. That would leave a gap between the Baltic Sea and Sudeten mountains (Polish gap, aka border between Poland and Germany), and the gap between Black Sea and Carpathian mountains (Iron Gates). That leaves 500 km to be guarded.

But there are a couple problems: Putin wants everything the Soviet Union used to control, so that includes East Germany. Several Russian political pundits on Russian TV also said they want East Germany. But that's on the wrong side of the defence line.

In 1919-1920 (following World War 1) the Soviet Union tried to invade and annex Poland, but failed. The Winter War was November 1939-March 1940, Russia attempted to invade and annex Finland, but failed. Each war went about as well as Ukraine is now. It was nasty and bloody, but Russia failed. In the Winter War, Russia did take about 11% of Finnish territory. In September 1939, Russia made a deal with Nazi Germans: they both attacked Poland. Nazis attacked from the west, 3 days later Russia attacked from the east. Propaganda at the time claimed Russia was there to "liberate" Poland from Nazis, but truth is Russia and Germany had a joint invasion deal and agreed to divide up Poland. In a video intended for Poland, Putin tried to convince the Polish people today that NATO would not defend them. So Russia is preparing to try again.

Also, during World War 2, the Baltic States didn't want to be conquered by Nazis, but when Russia counter-attacked, they actually worked with Nazis to try to defend against Russia. They saw Nazis as the lesser of two evils.

Today, Poland, Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia, Romania, and Finland are all full members of NATO. Article 5 will be invoked. Result would be WW3. Ukraine is fighting so the rest of us don't have to. If Ukraine falls, WW3 is inevitable. And look at what happened with Chechnya: Russia signed a ceasefire in 1997, but invaded again in year 2000. That means if Russia is allowed to keep any portion of Ukraine, they will invade again. And again, and again, until they take all of Ukraine. Then the rest is next, so WW3.

Canada is a member of NATO, committed to honouring its alliances, and very committed to defending both UK and France. So this WW3 will include Canada. Canada was included when Britain declared war at the beginning of WW1 (1914) and WW2 (1939). UK and France have nuclear weapons, so Canada today is committed to keeping them as allies.

As for USA: it did not enter WW1 until 1917, or WW2 until 1942. But realize Russia has said they intend to invade and annex Alaska. They will have to gain strength by annexing Europe first. At least the parts aforementioned. And trick Trump into weakening USA. But it's happening. Realize Alaska is on the list, Russia will invade. The question of Russia invading Alaska is not "if", it's "when".
Russia_1000.jpg?itok=AwbBkRzD

Void · 2025-03-29 23:34:24

Speculation

Not in the Peter Zeihan version.

So, we just sit there and allow Russia to occupy Alaska?

Well, I suppose if Trump does not hold, and we go back to the mind virus, then all we will have to throw at them are they/thems who cannot get out of bed because fat shaming is bad. Well then we would be done.

But a Russian action in the Pacific would leave them open in the Atlantic. And there are always the Turks for Allies, probably others.

I think it is more likely that the USA will look at financial relationships that the Russians might find worthwhile.

America's future is probably rather good if Trump is able to persist. I don't think energy is going to be a problem. There are those who say solar and wind will never be worthwhile, but I am not among them. I think it is also highly probable that Nuclear of both types will expand. That would include the option of Fusion.

Have you noticed how many times, the Russians have dominated the Mediterranean? Africa? It never happened yet. Even the Mongols could not crack Egypt.

The USA is part Eurasian, and part Eurafrican.

It is not likely that what you propose can become true.

But a full-scale nuclear war could happen if silly people are allowed to chase nationalistic fantasy.

If we are to believe Peter Zeihan, both China and Russia are going to fall apart. In that case if the Russians moved to the Far East, which is on the way to Alaska, there would be greater opportunities for them in the lands of Asia. It is highly unlikely that they could trust what would be there in the way of warlords, and then also cross into Alaska.

But never say never. It also seems true that I will die. I think I should worry about my little life until then, and I will leave it up to the big girls and boys to figure out what to do about Russia. Mostly though, I think they don't have to worry, for now. 100 years from now? Who can know.
And might we care?

Goodnight.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-03-29 23:54:38)

RobertDyck · Yesterday 02:29:21

Void wrote:

So, we just sit there and allow Russia to occupy Alaska?

I'm sorry you did not understand. If Russia takes control of Europe, or even a major portion of Europe, it will become much stronger. At the same time, Trump is making America weak. If this continues, Russia will invade Alaska.

Let me cite numbers so you see things from Putin's perspective.
In 1989, population of the Soviet Union was 286.72 million. That same year population of USA was 246.8 million. This means the Soviet Union was larger, so "should" be stronger. Furthermore, the Soviet Union controlled the Warsaw Pact. Population of the Warsaw Pact, including Soviet Union, was 377 million. So all the Soviet Union had to do was destroy NATO, so the Soviet Union could attack European countries one at a time. And disrupt trade between USA and other nations, shrinking America's economy. Of course it wasn't that simple, the free market economy of America was stronger, giving America an extremely strong economy even without trade. But with trade, America had the greatest economy ever in the history of the planet!

So now Putin wants to conquer and control everything that was the Soviet Union and everything that was the Russian Empire before it. Even if it's not annexed in name, ensure it's under total control, and ensure it's wealth is funnelled to Russia. Once it has that, it can attack Alaska.

World trade makes the economy richer. Closing your country off from the rest of the world makes you poor. Look at Cuba and North Korea, both isolated and poor. Not completely, but enough. You don't want that to happen to USA. Tariffs are not paid by other countries, they're paid by importers in your own country. The primary effect of tariffs it to punish people for buying imported goods, so they stop doing that. Tariffs will isolate USA. This will not make America rich, it will do the opposite.

Biden started a push to bring manufacturing back to the US. That's a good idea. Manufacturing moved from all developed countries to 3rd world countries where labour was cheap. That made goods cheap, but damaged the economy. China is having major problems; one is demographic. Their One Child policy means they don't have enough young people to keep their economy going. Workers for factories are getting old, too many are retiring. There aren't enough young people to replace those retiring. China tried to address this by changing to a 2 child policy, then 3 child, then eliminated restrictions. But it was too little, too late. Constructing massive apartment towers and condominium towers and demanding people move into them, meant couples are now in efficiency apartments that don't have enough room for children. So they're just not having children. China is in deep trouble, Peter Zeihan explains it better than I can. It's time to shift manufacturing away from China. Apple looked for alternatives to manufacture iPhones, but they went to India, and other 3rd world countries. The US really needs to "re-shore" that manufacturing.

Trump likes Tariffs, Ok so tariffs on China or other 3rd world countries could be justified. But not Canada, Mexico, or Europe. Not first world countries. Mexico was 3rd world, but after 32 years being part of NAFTA, the economy of Mexico has highly improved. And manufacturing is integrated with the US. The point of NAFTA was a single integrated economic zone with a population of all 3 countries. Today USA has a population of 341.5 million, Mexico 131.7 million, Canada 41.5 million, total 514.7 million. That's massive! We can be very rich with an integrated economy that size. Let's not screw it up.

It's not just population. GDP of Mexico is US$1.818 trillion. GDP of Canada US$2.330 trillion. That means per-capita GDP is 4 times Mexico.

You seem to think pandering to Russia will prevent war. That's backwards. Allowing Russia to get away with what they're doing will ensure war. Just like Adolf Hitler in 1938, if you let him take the country he's currently invading, that will just embolden him. He will continue to the next, and use resources of the current country to attack the next. Then the next, and the next.

RobertDyck · Yesterday 03:19:55

CBC News on YouTube: Tariffs are 'going to crash the U.S. auto sector,' says car parts association president

A CBC in-depth on YouTube: Why experts think Trump’s new auto tariff plan 'defies logic' | About That

Void · Yesterday 08:17:29

Let's talk tariffs, and then later perhaps other things.

Trumpian Tariffs come in several flavors.
1) So far for Canada and Mexico, help me with a problem or else, 25%.
2) Reciprocal drop your tariffs, (And tricks), to 0% and you can access our markets at 0% tariffs.
3: National Security Tariffs. (Steel, Aluminum, Cars?).

For #1: Mexico appears to have responded as we would like, so far, not too bad the border is much more under reasonable control.

For #2: Vietnam has responded to do the requirement of #2. Peter Zeihan has indicated that Mexico and perhaps some other parts of so called "Latin America", and also SE Asia will be our best trade partners. So, now everybody has to compete with Vietnam from those places for the things that those two locations can provide us. 0% Tariffs.

For #3: Steel, Aluminum, and heavy machinery. Well, the trust levels for Canada have deteriorated a huge amount, as we are getting "Elbows Out!" responses, and then you tell me that Canada hired a bunch of potential Jihadis to work in their car industry. None of that is reassuring. It seems that we have been foolish to trust Canada. If we "Fell and could not get up", it seems that Canada may be the kind of guy "Who would crawl over his dying mother to rape his dying sister". Under no circumstance should we trust you to be loyal in a war situation.

If we cannot rebuild those National Secuity Industries, then we need to distribute our sourcing to other nations if possible.

Using #1 as leverage, we are also threatening tariffs for nations that assist Venezuela. That appears to be working. This benefits everyone else's hydrocarbon industry. Arabs, Russians, Canada, etc. There is more supply than market. Venezuela has made itself into a hate machine and this is the rewards they will reap for that.

Back to Canada and Mexico, I think Mexico has the easier situation. They have a market to offer to us. Canada has less of a market to offer.

And if we try to make Canada go 0%<>0%, you have a problem. Quebec at least needs tariffs, to protect its dairy, and Canada does not want to become excessively reliant on the USA for that.

I will come coldly clean, I do not crave Alberta, although it would be sort of exciting. But I would rather Alberta become a Republic or stay with Canada. Not so much a state, as we would be taking territory if Alberta=State. Alberta as a Republic, might be possible to do a 0%<>0% as long as they did not facilitate tariff bypass for goods from the rest of Canada.

This would integrate their petrochemical industry with ours more. And it would be a passage control BC<>The rest of Canada, just as Canada has threatened passage control Alaska<>Ther rest of the USA. Also, it would give us some interaction with other products of Alberta.

But to avoid this sweet kindness from us, all Canada has to do is give Alberta it's pipelines. But we could still tariff Alberta products if it remains in confederation.

For the USA long term energy is probably not a problem. Internally, for now we seem to have enough. We would have to modify our refineries to handle shale oil, though it I think it is desired not to have to do that.

I don't like the Green Doom Goblins, but I think that solar and wind with batteries will become a actual thing of significance. I don't think it wise to depend on it 100% though as the Greenies from Europe seem to think is a nice "Hair Shirt" to wear.

In addition, it is likely that Natural Hydrogen will be a thing for us somewhere on the Continent.
It is highly likely that data centers may be powered by Nuclear and/or Geothermal, local to them so that power does not have to flow through a grid.

It seems somewhat likely that Fusion will become actual, but I suspect that it will not be competitive with Solar or Wind. It would be fantastic for Mars and Titan though.

Space Solar may become actual also. The Brits and some others have a need and that could work for them.

We also have Oil Shale, not just Shale Oil. We do not tap Oil Shale at all but could if we had to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
https://geology.com/usgs/oil-shale/unit … hale.shtml
Quote:

Copilot Answer
The United States has significant deposits of oil shale, primarily located in the Eocene Green River Formation in Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah, as well as in the Devonian-Mississippian black shales in the eastern U.S.. The country holds the largest known deposits of oil shale in the world, with an estimated 2.175 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil. Key basins containing these deposits include the Piceance Basin, Uinta Basin, and Greater Green River Basin.

As for labor, the rate of expansion of robotic/automated labor will not be infinite but it will be like many fire hoses full on.

If this works out, we will as my mother would have said it "Be Sitting Pretty".

We can also talk about the Russians. My theory is they do not value expanded, land Aquisition as much as they value Russianoid people. They do have Crimea now, for their navy. They will want their Russians back, with the land, if possible, but also otherwise. They could get many of them back if they could do a "Butter" deal with us. But they seem to be brooding over their nest which is Eastern Ukraine, Belorussia, Kazakhstan, for the larger part. I think they will only occupy west Ukraine to turn it into a neutral state, if they have to. They may maintain interest in Transnistria.
So, Moldova has concerns.

If they do otherwise then they will betray themselves, and we can reposition our activities accordingly.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (Yesterday 09:06:48)

RobertDyck · Yesterday 10:45:12

Canada saw the US as not just a friend and ally, but family. The US is our larger older brother. We could argue like brothers, but Canada would go to war to protect our brother. But now Trump is trying to treat us like Mexico, like a vassal state. The betrayal is deep!

Trump has claimed he intends to impose a 25% tariff across the board on everything from Canada except oil, natural gas, and electricity. Those energy products will be tariffed at 10% instead, but still tariffed. It wasn't mentioned through the media, but I read that uranium is included in the 10% tariff. In addition, and on top of the 25%, there's a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. And another 25% tariff on vehicles including cars, trucks, SUVs, vans, ambulances, city transit busses, highway busses, etc. The purpose of tariffs is to stop Americans from buying stuff from Canada.

Trump expects to treat Canada as a vassal, who will pay tribute to the US so he can lower taxes on Americans. Canadians have been taxed to death by our own government, we certainly cannot afford a 25% tax on top of that. The extreme gross disrespect and contempt from Trump is shocking, and unacceptable. The Canadian government has said we will stop the countervailing tariffs has soon as he commits to cease and desist his tariffs on us. "Cease" means stop it, "desist" means never do it again. Canada's response has resulted in Trump imposing even greater tariffs on Canada. He put a 30-day "pause" on the first round of tariffs, but brought them back again. And did it a second time. Now he's threatening the tariffs on autos will be permanent. That will destroy the auto sector in Canada. Actually, auto manufacturing is so integrated between the two countries that it will shut down the entire auto manufacturing industry in both the US and Canada. Peter Zeihan said in one week at the Canada-US border, in one month at the Mexico-US border.

One example from the video: aluminum smelted in Quebec, because Quebec has many rivers that can be dammed for cheap hydroelectricity. Smelting aluminum takes a lot of electricity. About 80% of North America's aluminum comes from Quebec. And yes, that means of all the aluminum used in Canada, US, and Mexico, 80% comes from Quebec. The ore doesn't come from Quebec, but rivers in the Appalachian mountains in Quebec can be dammed. Also realize most of the aluminum smelters in Quebec are owned by Alcoa, an American owned company. The raw aluminum is then sent to a factory in St. Catharines, Ontario where it's melted and cast into the right shape. Then it's sent to factory in Detroit where it's finished into the exact standards for the vehicle it's going in. Then the piston is installed into an engine in Windsor, Ontario. Then another team installs the engine into the car and finishes the assembly in Flint Michigan. How many times did that cross the border? A car today has about 20,000 parts, so do that with every single part of a car.

RobertDyck · Yesterday 11:15:01

Europe taught Canada that depending on imported food is extremely dangerous. Canada does depend on imported fresh produce, especially in winter. Canada has snow in winter. Bananas and oranges don't grow in Canada, even in summer. But Europe has had wars so often, one method of attacking another nation is to cut off its food supply. If a country depends on imported food, the population will be desperate when their food is cut off. To protect against that vulnerability, each nation must produce its own staple foods, and any food that is critical. Babies need milk, and young parents will get desperate if they can't get milk for their baby. So dairy must be primarily local. Europe demanded access to the Canadian market before they would sign CETA. One concession is to allow European cheese. Any dairy product brought into Canada must comply with Canadian food safety regulations. And those regulations are not the same as Europe or the US.

USDA: Value of U.S. dairy product exports to Canada grew by nearly 50 percent in just over a decade

Canada is an important market for U.S. dairy products, second only to Mexico. From 2010 to 2021, total dairy exports from the United States to Canada, adjusted for inflation, rose 48 percent from $466.4 million in 2010 to $691.5 million in 2021. Canada’s proximity to the United States favors imports such as fluid milk, cheese, and infant formula, among others. Supplemental imports of fluid milk, butter, and butterfat in addition to cheese and cream from the United States often meet the shortfall in Canada’s production. By value, infant formula has been the top U.S. dairy product exported to Canada, accounting for $151.3 million in 2021 and representing 22 percent of the total. Coming in second, the combined export value of fluid milk, cream, and milk-based drinks reached $128.5 million in 2021—an inflation-adjusted increase of $85.2 million from 2010. U.S. exports of cheese to Canada have grown by 12 percent to $68.1 million in 2021. U.S. product groups such as butter and butterfat products; fluid milk, cream, and milk-based drinks; cheese; and whey products continue to gain popularity among Canadian buyers. Accordingly, the value of export sales of butter and butterfat products have increased by $41.7 million, after adjusting for inflation. This chart is from data in USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) dataset as of February 2022.

So there is quite a lot already coming into Canada. Quebec is particularly sensitive about dairy; they don't want their industry killed. And as I said, certain US politicians have proven to be unreliable. In May 2003 a single cow in the US was found to be infected with Mad Cow Disease. The accusation was this animal came from Canada. In December of 2003 investigation found the animal came from a farm in Washington State. But still to this day many individuals blame Canada. Winnipeg used to have a major meat packing industry: 5 beef processing plants, and 3 pork. Winnipeg processed as many cattle per year as Calgary, and more hogs than any other location in Canada. Then one day city council shut down the entire industry. The industrial park was shrunk, and residential housing built closer to the industrial park. That terminated thousands of paying jobs. Winnipeg processed all cattle raised in Manitoba, western Saskatchewan, and northwest Ontario. Winnipeg city council made a deal with a company in North Dakota to process these animals, claiming they had new technology. But that business left the country, and those jobs were permanently lost. This part of Canada became dependent on North Dakota to process animals grown in Canada for Canadian consumption. When the Mad Cow scare happened, US politicians blamed Canada. They passed regulations prohibiting any live animals from crossing the border from Canada into North Dakota, or anywhere else in the US. Canada has regulations that are more strict than than the US. Chances of an animal infected with that disease being shipped to the US are extremely low to put it politely. To be blunt: a snowballs hope in hell. The infected animal was discovered to have come from one specific farm in Washington state. President George W. Bush didn't start this, but when other US politicians blamed Canada to cover the ass of US industry in their districts, President Bush let them. Still to this day animals that were alive at the time of the Mad Cow scare are not allowed into the US. US politicians still haven't admitted the infected animal came from Washington state, even though US officials have said exactly that.

Canada currently allows A LOT of US dairy into our country. Allowing US imports to kill Canada's industry would be a very VERY bad idea. Some is Ok, but Canada must produce enough of its own dairy that if the US decides to cut off that industry, Canada would survive with no significant harm. Especially considering how inconsistent and spiteful Donald Trump has proven to be.

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