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Implications of the coming era of commercial heavy launch: point-to-point transport for both cargo and passengers.
https://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2025/ … ra-of.html
Surprisingly, just standard FedEX cargo aircraft delivery for the longest distance transpacific routes costs over $100/kg. Then when SpaceX does manage to get the cost orbit to $100/kg the cost for Starship transport at less than 1 hour travel time will be less than aircraft cargo delivery rates for the longest routes that might take a full day.
In my blog post I argue that SpaceX already has this capability for such low cost launch with the Starship. It only has to take the approach, proven so successful with the Falcon 9, of first doing expendable launch, then partial reusability. Full reusability is unnecessary, and the recent failures with Starship suggest is more difficult than SpaceX expected.
With such a strong financial motive for such fast point-to-point cargo delivery there is no doubt it would be implemented. Then at high flight rates this would serve to improve launch reliability, thereby bringing about such fast point-to-point transport for passengers as well.
People have criticized SpaceX developing Starship on the grounds there would be no consistent market for such large mass to orbit. But this would be a key market, point-to-point cargo and soon thereafter passenger transport.
Bob Clark
Last edited by RGClark (2025-03-22 16:08:19)
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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This post is reserved for an index to what I hope will be a number of posts contributed by NewMars members over time.
Index:
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When the cost of rocket travel becomes low enough, you will see a point to point industry appear and grow. That is true.
I rather doubt rocket travel will ever be as cheap as airplane travel, but there is a value to very short flight times with some cargo items or people, which justifies the higher price.
In my own opinion, we are not there yet, not even SpaceX.
Crudely, $1000 airline ticket for 100 kg person = $10/kg. I think it rather insane to believe rocket flight can ever get to be that cheap, because it is inherently more demanding than cruising in a high-subsonic airplane. But if it gets down near $100/kg, that could create an industry transporting stuff on suborbital flights of only minutes instead of hours. Factor-10 higher price for factor-10 shorter travel time.
GW
Last edited by GW Johnson (2025-03-23 10:14:00)
GW Johnson
McGregor, Texas
"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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The Air Force is planning on funding point-to-point rocket cargo transport:
Air Force picks remote Pacific atoll as site for cargo rocket trials
By SETH ROBSON STARS AND STRIPES • March 4, 2025
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_p … 26030.html
Bob Clark
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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