Planetary Defense - Asteroid Deflection - Asteroid Spin per Void

tahanson43206 · 2023-12-25 16:20:16

There may well be topics in the forum archive that are about asteroid dangers to Earth or Mars.

There were only two topics that contained the word "defense" and neither was about the danger of asteroids.

In another topic, Void just offered an idea that is interesting in it's own right.

However, I thought immediately of the asteroid deflection problem.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2023-12-25 16:24:56

This new topic is inspired by another of many visions of Void:

http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 44#p217644

It occurred to me that an asteroid that is headed for Earth might be given a spin (controlled of course) so that the components of the asteroid would be accelerated in desirable directions, as an alternative to the default collision with Earth.

Some clever engineering would be required, but the total amount of energy required might be comparable to what might be mustered for other approaches to the problem.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2023-12-25 16:26:17

Apache Internal Server error objected to the text below:

In the post cited above, Void shows us how an asteroid might be spun up to send objects to other locations in the Solar System, using a tether similar to (but longer than) the one David used to give Goliath a headache.

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tahanson43206 · 2024-02-18 22:20:42

The latest issue of Analog just arrived, and it contains an article about asteroid intercept that includes developments that may be new to one or two NewMars members.

Happily, the article is published in full at the analog web site...

https://www.analogsf.com/current-issue/ … nate-view/

I will quote a bit of the article in hopes it will inspire a NewMars member to open the link.

THE ALTERNATE VIEW
Defending Against Killer Asteroids
by John G. Cramer
On Thursday, July 13, 2023, a sizable undetected asteroid (subsequently named “2023 NT1”) was headed for the Earth from the direction of the Sun and just missed a collision. It passed within ~100,000 kilometers, about three times further out than the orbits of geosynchronous satellites. Because the Sun is an astronomical blind spot, this very close encounter with near-Earth asteroid 2023 NT1 wasn’t discovered and tracked until two days after the near miss.
The asteroid is estimated to have a diameter of ~34 meters, a mass of ~52 kilotonnes, and a speed of 11.27 km/s. (Note: a metric tonne is 1,000 kg or 2,204.62 lb.) If asteroid 2023 NT1 had impacted the Earth’s surface, it would have liberated energy equivalent to ~1.5 megatonnes of TNT, about 100 times the energy as released by the Hiroshima bomb, and it could have caused very significant local damage.

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tahanson43206 · 2024-04-01 08:15:19

This post is about the ice injection asteroid mining concept originated by our Alaskan correspondent in the Knowledge forum.

There are several innovations to be attempted here, and I have some uncertainty about how well everything is going to work.

The link below is to a Google Document that is rendered in PDF format.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-z0UvZ … sp=sharing

If the link works, the file contains a conversation with Gemini in which two individuals participate.

The opening sequence was guided by the Alaskan, and I picked up the thread and carried it to a conclusion (of sorts)

The concluding sequence covers the use of the Moon as a suitable test environment for the Injected Ice harvesting method.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2024-10-02 06:58:34

In another topic, NewMars members have recently revisited the topic of a NASA experiment to impact a rubble pile asteroid.

This was a useful experiment in many respects, not least because it dramatically confirmed theoretical predictions by one or more NewMars members.

One of the outcomes of the discussion was the observation that the effectiveness of a gravity tractor is dependent almost entirely upon the mass of the tractor. In discussion, it became clear that a useful strategy is to send a tractor to a rubble pile asteroid with an empty container to be filled with material from the rubble pile over time. Small smart robots could pick and choose items from the surface of the rubble pile, and collect the material in the empty collection system. That system might be one of Calliban's fabric bags, for example. As the mass under control increases, two useful things occur...

First, the mass of the tractor increases.

Second, the mass of the rubble pile decreases.

At some point, the tractor will have the influence needed to guide the remaining rubble pile to a path that avoids an encounter with Earth.

It will be clear to NewMars members that a collection bag full of asteroid material would have significant economic value in the right circumstances, so the asteroid deflection mission might pay for itself.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-16 08:11:24

The article at the link below is about an asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/15/science/ … id=ios_app

What I see in this situation is a large chance to visit the asteroid and deliver a tracking device.

It seems to me reasonable to suppose that humans will want to visit and tag every significant object in the Solar System.

The work would be done by robots, of course, but at this point a human directed mission to intercept this particular asteroid in 2032 seems possible, given advances in technical ability and the fact several nations are actively developing space capability.

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Calliban · 2025-02-16 08:35:18

I think Void's original idea (correct me if I'm wrong) was to use the energy of the asteroids spin to launch materials from its surface using a tether. This could also be used to deflect an asteroid by launching payloads into space as reaction mass.

It would take a lot of time to do this and rotational energy would only be sufficient for a small velocity change. However, assuming that lead time is sufficient, this method would allow asteroid deflection without need for a power source or propulsion system. Just a rope and two pulleys, as the energy required is provided entirely by the asteroid's spin. One could even attach a generator to one of the pullies and use it to power mining equipment. So everything is done using the asteroid's own rotational kinetic energy. A very neat idea.

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-16 08:51:02

Following up on Calliban's post #8

Per Google >> Wikipedia

Photometric observations by the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and the La Silla Observatory's 1.54-meter telescope indicate 2024 YR4 has a rotation period near 19.5 minutes.
2024 YR4 - Wikipedia
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › 2024_YR4

(th)

GW Johnson · 2025-02-17 14:59:48

2024 yr4 is classed as a Type S ("stony") or perhaps type L asteroid, based on the spectrum of its reflected light. Type C's (and the very similar comet nuclei) that we have been to with probes are all rubble piles, not monolithic objects. The comet nuclei are partly cemented together by internal ice that has not evaporated away yet. The asteroids have all been loose dry rubble piles. Type S are similar, likely also loose dry rubble piles, although some of the particles could be a bit bigger. Only the type M ("metallics") seem to be monolithic objects.

If you put too big a "push" onto a loose rubble pile, it will come apart into a cloud of objects resembling nothing so much as a shotgun blast. We already saw this in action at "Didymoon" with the NASA impact test, which very nearly disrupted "Didymoon". It lost a cloud of boulders and cobbles that we could see (and presumably a whole cloud of smaller things we could not see), and it visibly changed shape, in addition to being deflected slightly.

The "push" can be an impactor, or it can be vaporization induced by a very bright light. Both produce a reaction force due to the cloud of ejecta suddenly moving away. Conventional or nuclear explosives have very little of a pressure blast wave. There is no such thing as a "shock wave" in vacuum. Planting a bomb inside an asteroid would actually do very little. You have to explode it alongside, and vaporize a chunk of adjacent surface, which flies away into space, producing a reaction force on the asteroid in the other direction. On a rubble pile, it takes very little such reaction force to entirely break up the body into a cloud of debris. NASA's Dart impactor was very small compared to "Didymoon".

If you disrupt the body into a shotgun blast too close to Earth, all the debris hits Earth, but it just hits all over its surface instead of in one location. You actually do more damage that way. You have to do this far out, in order for the debris cloud to spread in diameter far beyond Earth's diameter, before you do less damage.

2024 yr4 has an ellipse that crosses Earth's orbit in two places. It is the second crossing at which both the asteroid and Earth will be there at the same time in 2032. Your only chance to reach it with some payload is to launch that payload after the first crossing, and hope to get there before the second crossing. Time is very short to do that, and the debris cloud will not have time to spread out much by the time of the second crossing. If you disrupt it, you kill more people than would have died if you did nothing.

My point: there is NOT time to accumulate the effects of a bunch of "small pushes" that do not disrupt the asteroid. My other point: based on the "Didymoon" experience, we do not understand yet what actually constitutes that "small push" below the disruption point.

Now here's the killer: we have rockets that could reach 2024 yr4 just about the time of threatened impact, and we have nuclear warheads. But we do NOT have the right guidance and control avionics and software for such a mission, and we do NOT have the right kind of warhead fusing for such a mission. And we lack the spacecraft design to carry them. It is very likely that none of this could be developed and tested in time to be used. It's only 9 years away.

The hell of it is, things have changed very little since I attended the asteroid defense conference in Granada, Spain, way back in 2009. Only the recent asteroid probes and impact test are new since then. We still do NOT have the right avionics, software, and warhead fusing to attempt any such deflection missions! And we still do NOT know how a small a push is needed not to disrupt a rubble pile! Although the "Didymoon" DART test suggests that is a lot smaller than anyone wants to believe.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2025-02-17 15:09:58)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-17 18:11:39

For GW Johnson re #10

2024 yr4 has an ellipse that crosses Earth's orbit in two places. It is the second crossing at which both the asteroid and Earth will be there at the same time in 2032. Your only chance to reach it with some payload is to launch that payload after the first crossing, and hope to get there before the second crossing. Time is very short to do that, and the debris cloud will not have time to spread out much by the time of the second crossing. If you disrupt it, you kill more people than would have died if you did nothing.
My point: there is NOT time to accumulate the effects of a bunch of "small pushes" that do not disrupt the asteroid. My other point: based on the "Didymoon" experience, we do not understand yet what actually constitutes that "small push" below the disruption point.

1) When is the first crossing?
2) Why are folks so fixated upon blowing up the rubble pile?
3) Why not collect all that valuable material and direct it to a useful orbit for eventual sale?

(th)

GW Johnson · 2025-02-18 11:38:39

(1) first crossing is a few weeks before second cross. I don't know the number, but the orbital perihelion is actually inside Venus, so it is moving quite quickly along the near-sun part of its orbit.

(2) the public is "fixated" on blowing it up because of the movies "Armageddon" and 'Deep Impact". The asteroid defense community has only 3 credible approaches: (1) gravity tractor which only works with years of warning, (2) a series of small impactors under the (found to be bad) assumption that small impactors won't disrupt rubble piles, and (3) nuclear explosives alongside to heat spallation from the adjacent surface. As it turns out, even the small impactors can disrupt rubble piles, and certainly the nuclear explosives would.

(3) in the case of 2024 yr4 we won't get the chance to recover anything, if it actually turns out to be a collision in 2032. Right now the odds are estimated to be 2+% of a collision then, but the uncertainty in the actual orbit determination overwhelms that. The right answer is just "we don't really know, but there's a significant risk". S-type are silicate minerals with other-metal admixtures, much like igneous and metamorphic rocks here. Stuff like magnesium and aluminum silicate. It takes a whopping amount of heat energy just to melt such rocks, much less heat them further to the point of dissociating the minerals. Once dissociated, how do you separate out what you want from the melt pool? We don't even do that here, except with high-grade ores, which these are not. I honestly see very little value in such materials.

The C-types are the same silicates with some carbon-bearing minerals included, and maybe even some straight carbon mixed in. Again, it takes a whopping amount of heat energy to melt the rocks, and a lot more to cause any dissociation. Same lack of value relative to the whopping energy to dissociate them, plus the difficulty of separating what you want from the melt pool. I must question the value of these bodies as “resources”.

It is the rare M-types that might be valuable in some way. Those are solid "rocks", not loose rubble piles, made of iron alloyed with mostly nickel, and some other metals. That is NOT a recipe for steel, there's too much nickel and way too little of the other alloying metallic elements. It would need the "right" small carbon addition to be a steel. However, it is a resource for iron and other metals.

More (3) All this refining is done in a very hot melt in something resembling a traditional blast furnace (a technology dating back almost 2 centuries now), except that the only blast furnaces we know how to build would NOT work in vacuum and zero-gee. You use an oxygen lance to burn out what you don't want in the mix, including excess carbon.

This is not done in electric arc furnaces, those only do scrap re-melts. And the energy costs of all these processes are truly enormous.

Finish up (3) The upshot here is that small chunks of M-type asteroids could be cut free and shipped home, for refining down here on the surface where we actually know how to do it. But with all the steel scrap available for the re-melt processes in electric furnaces, why bother?

-------

As for mining volatiles like water ice, CO2 ice, methane ice, etc, you will NOT find any of that in, or inside, the main asteroid belt, except in the very largest such bodes like Ceres and Vesta. The smaller ones have all been dried out by solar radiation heating in vacuum over geologic time. That includes Phobos and Deimos, too.

There will be increasing ice content as you move outward from the sun, past the main asteroid belt. Some at Jupiter, more at Saturn, etc. By the time you reach the Kuiper belt, there's more ice than mineral in these bodies. The comets come from there, but get dried out a bit by their repeated close solar passes over geologic time.

GW

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-18 13:18:18

For GW Johnson re #12

First, thank you for taking up this important question!

Second, thanks for clarifying that the asteroid will be inbound a few weeks before the outbound flight when it is dangerous.

The best time to apply force to the object is at the perigee, and the time to place a probe is on the inbound pass. A film of material could be placed on the surface of the object, to change the effect of the solar radiation on the object. A reflective material could increase albedo, which would result in impulse outward. A dark material could reduce albedo, although the effect might be small because it is likely the albedo of the material is already low.

Such a probe could ride behind the asteroid as it swings by the Sun. The probe could collect more solar data to complement the work of the Parker probe, but more importantly, it could collect data about the interaction of the asteroid and the Sun.

Regarding the value of materials in space....

The value of ** any ** material in space depends upon how it can be used in space.

Void has been pointing out the potential of ceramics in space applications recently, and it seems likely to me that all materials in 2024 YR4 will be valuable to entrepreneurs who are thinking about projects in space.

A focus upon value on Earth is understandable but inappropriate for most space located material.

This topic is available for NewMars members to describe how a space entrepreneur would use the materials in this particular asteroid, if the means to collect them can be developed before 2032.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-18 13:36:30

For all who may be interested in the albedo question...

https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/202 … t-updates/

The web site above contains up to date information, and there are a number of comments/questtions and replies.

One item I noted is that the James Webb telescope is under consideration to allocate some time to look at the asteroid in order to improve the albedo figure. Apparently the albedo figure is currently poorly known, so the size of the object is uncertain.

This topic is available if a NewMars member has time to monitor this web site.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-18 13:55:40

This quote is from a New York Post article:

“It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list,” seconded NASA’s Molly L Wasser in a blog post. “It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.”
She ultimately declared that “its impact probability will become better known” as we obtain more observations of the asteroid’s orbit.
Unfortunately, we are running out of time to predict the risk. The asteroid will fly behind the Sun in April, putting it out of sight of most of Earth’s terrestrial telescopes until it comes back into view in 2028.
Scientists plan to glean as much info as they can in the interim using the James Webb Space Telescope, which will help pinpoint the rock’s size by using its infrared instruments to study the heat emitted by it.

https://nypost.com/2025/02/18/science/o … th-are-up/

The article includes a graphic that shows the orbit of the asteroid with respect to the orbits of other Solar system objects.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-19 07:34:31

GW Johnson found the animation at the link below in the Wikipedia article on 2024 YR4

The animation clearly shows that the asteroid is literally "behind the Sun" three times in it's flight between the 2028 pass and it's return in 2032.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Anim … proach.gif

I hope that other NewMars members will count the occasions when the asteroid is "behind the Sun" to verify or falsify my observations.

Update:
After watching the animation for a while, I conclude there are an infinite number of possible interception orbits that might be planned to reach 2024 YR4 as it approaches or departs from the orbit of Earth.

According to rumor, we have at least one member who understands calculus. We may have more members who could work this problem.

By inspection, I think there is ONE possible interception orbit that has the lowest possible relative dV at the moment the probe arrives at the asteroid.

My challenge for our membership is to compute the best orbit for interception, and post the solution in a form that the rest of us can understand.

Update:

Note: The animation at Wikipedia covers the time period from 2028-12-01 through 2032-12-22.

The dates when the asteroid is "behind the Sun" are:
2029
2030
2031

Update:
The total dV required for the flight would be of interest, in addition to the lowest dV at the intercept.
There may be a solution with the lowest total dV that is different from the solution with the lowest dV at intercept.

Update: This is 2025, and the next pass of 2024 YR4 will occur in 2028. That means there are plenty of opportunities to send a probe to reach the asteroid in 2028. There is no need to wait until after 2028 to schedule the flight.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-19 10:09:26

Here is a link to a Forbes version of the 2024 YR4 story.

It says that 2024 YR4 will pass Earth in "late" 2028.

I will continue looking for a more accurate date.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecarte … t-nuke-it/

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-19 10:29:48

In this conversation, Google's Gemini offered suggestion for three web sites where information might be found to narrow the date when the asteroid will pass by Earth in 2028. Apparently the path is not yet clear.

Conversation with Gemini
Hi Gemini! Thanks for your help with previous questions. Today I'm hoping you can shift through the mass of data on asteroid 2024 YR4 to find the exact date in late 2028 when the asteroid will cross Earth's orbit near Earth.

Unfortunately, I cannot give you the exact date in late 2028 when asteroid 2024 YR4 will cross Earth's orbit near Earth.
Here's why:
Chaotic System: The asteroid's orbit is influenced by the gravity of the Sun and other planets, making its long-term path somewhat uncertain. Small changes in its trajectory can lead to significant differences in its position over time.
Limited Data: While scientists have observed 2024 YR4, the data is still limited. More observations are needed to refine our understanding of its orbit and make more precise predictions.
However, I can provide you with some information based on current knowledge:
General Timeframe: The asteroid is expected to make a close approach to Earth in late 2028. However, the exact date and time are still subject to change.
Ongoing Research: Scientists are actively tracking 2024 YR4 and making new observations to improve their predictions. The James Webb Space Telescope is even scheduled to observe the asteroid in March 2025, which will provide valuable data.
I recommend that you follow these resources for the latest updates on asteroid 2024 YR4:
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) website: JPL is the primary source for information on asteroids and other celestial bodies.
Minor Planet Center: This organization is responsible for cataloging and tracking asteroids.
News Articles and Scientific Publications: Keep an eye out for news articles and scientific publications that report on the latest findings about 2024 YR4.
Remember that our understanding of the universe is constantly evolving as we gather more data. The more we learn about 2024 YR4, the better we can predict its future path.
Thank you for suggestions for sites to visit. While I'm away, best wishes for success as you try to help all your other customers.
You're very welcome! I'm glad I could provide some helpful resources. I hope you have a wonderful time away! Feel free to reach out again if you have any more questions in the future. I'll be here, ready to assist.

It would seem useful to know the date of the next pass as closely as possible, in order to plan intercepts that would be possible in 2028. The purpose of such a flight could extend from simple data gathering through dropping off a space navigation beacon to performing actual mining experiments. The suggestion of Calliban to use Void's idea of tapping the rotation of the asteroid seems well worth investigating. The time to implement that is in 2028. The time to start working on the intercept is 2025.

As reported earlier in this topic, the rotation rate of 2024 YR4 is known.

Photometric observations by the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and the La Silla Observatory's 1.54-meter telescope indicate 2024 YR4 has a rotation period near 19.5 minutes.
2024 YR4 - Wikipedia
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › 2024_YR4

That rotation is just over 3 revolutions per hour. It should be possible for NewMars members to calculate the length of a tether needed to launch a mass from the asteroid to a destination of value, such as Lunar L1, or even the Moon itself, as a collection point.

In thinking about how a tether would work (or fail), it occurs to me that pushing a rock out from the surface of the asteroid is not sufficient in itself, since the tether would merely wrap around the asteroid. The payload would have the momentum of the surface of the asteroid as it is pushed away, and that momentum would not increase just because the payload is distant from the asteroid. This is the same problem as must be faced by the folks who launch objects from Earth and want them to go into orbit. The objects must be lifted to the desired altitude and then given horizontal velocity sufficient to match the velocity needed to stay in orbit at that altitude.

it appears there is an opportunity for one of our NewMars members with the appropriate skill set to add details to Void's idea.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-19 10:51:07

Here is a link to a page on the Minor Planet Center web site that seems to be about 2024 YR4

https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K24/K24YE0.html

If we have a member in NewMars able to interpret the page, this topic is available for a report.

The date of the page is December of 2024, so it seems likely there will be updates at some point in the future.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-19 10:53:41

Here is a link to the JPL site that appears to be about 2024 YR4.

https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_loo … 2024%20YR4

If we have a member in NewMars able to interpret this page, a report to this topic would be welcome and appreciated.

(th)

Terraformer · 2025-02-19 14:03:48

Presumably this issue only applies to tracking with telescopes? If we had a beacon on it, we could keep tracking throughout?

Even if we can't stop an impact, having a very precise location and velocity should help us evacuate the impact site. I will not be surprised to find SpaceX is already planning their own interception mission for this. Putting a beacon there should be a lot less politically fraught than doing anything to the asteroid itself. We have achieved landings in the past, so this won't require anything new. If we need a Big F* Rocket to reach it in time, well...

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-19 16:31:40

First look at possible intercept orbit plan ....

GW Johnson
2025/02/19

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-20 07:13:11

This post is about an inquiry of JPL.NASA.GOV regarding the orbit of 2024 YR4 for the 2028 pass, as it is currently known.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/who-we-are/med … -contacts/

Technology, Deep Space Network, Asteroids and Comets
Ian J. O'Neill
Media Relations Specialist
818-354-2649

Email sent to Mr. O'Neill:

For Ian J. O'Neill
Media Relations Specialist
***
Thank you for considering this inquiry.
The NewMars.com/Forums web site is a subsidiary of the Mars Society. It has been in operation for over 20 years, and serves as a means of distribution of news about space activities, in addition to other activities.
Dr. GW Johnson is a retired aerospace engineer who lives near McGregor, Texas, and within earshot of the SpaceX Engine Test range there.
In response to an inquiry from a forum member, Dr. Johnson prepared a diagram to try to help the forum readership to understand the likely flight of the asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2028, with a view to planning a flight to deliver an instrument package to the asteroid.
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.ph … 85#p229885
If you have someone in the JPL community with a spare moment, please help us to refine the diagram so it is as accurate as possible.
In particular, I am hoping there might be data to confirm the possibility that 2024 YR4 will be coming up behind Earth from below as shown in the diagram.
We have at least one forum member who can run the software GMAT on a Linux System, with a bit of assistance with configuration. Potentially, GMAT might be able to generate a plot similar to the one created by Dr. Johnson, using the most accurate orbital elements available as we approach 2028.
The discussion in the forum is about Planetary Defense. I am particularly interested in the proposal to simply collect the material comprising the asteroid with a fleet of mining robot vessels, if sufficient information can be gleaned about the nature of the asteroid to allow appropriate methods to be developed, launched and operated by 2028.
Tom Hanson
(Junior) Moderator
tahanson43206
newmars.com/forums

Errata: Mr. O'Neill's name was incorrectly entered in the first version of this request, so a follow up correction was sent.
(th)

tahanson43206 · 2025-02-23 12:40:25

Space.stackexchange.com has a robust discussion going on. The comments include computer generated graphs...

https://space.stackexchange.com/questio … d-2024-yr4

This quote comes from about 3/5 of the way through the collection:

From this figure it seems the best timeframe is launching & impacting just before the 2028 encounter.

That view matches pretty closely with GW Johnson's evaluation of the situation.

(th)

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Planetary Defense - Asteroid Deflection - Asteroid Spin per Void

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