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In May of 2024, a report of research on use of a particle accelerator to process Thorium to deliver Tritium reached NewMars.
The process appears to generate enough energy to cover it's own energy costs.
In other words, this appears to be a way of making Tritium from Thorium without having to consume fossil fuel.
This topic is offered for evaluation by NewMars members, with the caveat that the opening premise may turn out to be incorrect.
The purpose of the topic is to give NewMars members a place to explore the idea.
Related questions that come to mind include:
How much Thorium is available on Earth?
Who controls it?
How does the transmutation process work?
What technology must be invented to move from research laboratory to production facility?
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This post is reserved for an index to posts that may be contributed by NewMars members over time.
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I asked ChatGPT4o to evaluate the proposal to make Tritium from Thorium and Lithium...
The Lithium appears to be the weak link in the chain ....
[h1]Lithium Demand and Tritium Production: Evaluating the Competition[/h1]
[h2]Current and Future Demand for Lithium[/h2]
1. Electric Vehicles (EVs):
The global shift towards electric mobility is a significant driver of lithium demand.
EVs use lithium-ion batteries for their high energy density and efficiency.
Projections suggest a sharp increase in EV production, with many countries setting targets for phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles in favor of EVs by 2030-2040.
2. Energy Storage Systems:
Renewable energy sources like solar and wind require efficient storage solutions to balance supply and demand.
Lithium-ion batteries are currently the leading technology for large-scale energy storage systems.
The growth in renewable energy adoption is directly linked to the increase in demand for lithium.
3. Consumer Electronics:
Smartphones, laptops, tablets, and other portable devices continue to rely on lithium-ion batteries for their power needs.
While this sector is smaller compared to EVs and energy storage, it still represents a substantial portion of the overall lithium market.
[h2]Lithium Availability and Market Dynamics[/h2]
1. Reserves and Resources:
Estimated global lithium reserves are around 22 million tons, with identified resources at approximately 86 million tons.
Major lithium-producing countries include Australia, Chile, China, and Argentina, with significant production and exploration activities ongoing.
2. Production Capacity:
Current lithium production is around 100,000-150,000 tons per year, but this is expected to increase significantly to meet growing demand.
Expansions in mining capacity and the development of new extraction technologies (e.g., direct lithium extraction from brines) are critical to meeting future needs.
3. Market Competition:
The lithium market is competitive, with high demand from the EV sector expected to drive prices up.
This competition could impact the cost and availability of lithium for other applications, such as tritium production.
[h2]Impact on Tritium Production[/h2]
1. Lithium Allocation:
A tritium production facility would need to secure a stable supply of lithium-6, which is a specific isotope of lithium used in tritium production.
The competition for general lithium resources (primarily lithium-7 in natural abundance) could make sourcing lithium-6 more challenging and potentially more expensive.
2. Economic Viability:
The cost of lithium could become a major factor in the overall economic feasibility of tritium production.
As lithium prices rise due to high demand from the EV and energy storage sectors, the operational costs of a tritium production facility might increase, potentially affecting its competitiveness.
3. Supply Chain and Sustainability:
Ensuring a reliable supply chain for lithium-6 would be crucial. This might involve long-term contracts with suppliers or investments in lithium extraction and processing facilities.
Exploring alternative sources of lithium, such as seawater extraction or recycling, could provide additional security against market fluctuations.
4. Technological Innovations:
Advances in lithium extraction and processing technologies could alleviate some of the supply pressures.
Developing more efficient methods to produce tritium and optimizing the use of lithium could reduce the overall demand for raw lithium in the process.
[h2]Conclusion[/h2]
The growing demand for lithium, driven primarily by the EV and energy storage sectors, presents a competitive landscape for any new application, including tritium production. While global lithium reserves are substantial, the increasing demand will likely drive up prices and make securing a stable supply more challenging.To mitigate these challenges, a tritium production facility would need to:
Carefully manage its lithium procurement strategy, possibly by securing long-term contracts.
Invest in new extraction technologies.
Explore alternative sources.
Ensure economic viability by balancing the cost of lithium with the market value of tritium and helium-3.
Achieve technological efficiencies in the production process.
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Lithium is not a bottleneck. Remember that you must fission 1 atom of 233U (233 grams) to produce 2 atoms (6 grams) of tritium. To produce tritium, we bombard Li-6 with slow neutrons. For every 6 grams of Li-6, we get 3 grams tritium. So for this to work, we must consume 232 grams of thorium and 12 grams of lithium to produce 6 grams of tritium. We need 19x more thorium than lithium.
For every tonne of thorium fissioned, we generate 3GW-years of heat and 1GW-yr of electricity. We consume 52kg of Li-6 and produce 26kg of tritium. The quantity of lithium consumed is practically negligible. The amount of tritium produced does not appear great either. The decay energy of 26kg of tritium is pathetic compared to the fission energy of 1 tonne of thorium needed to produce it. But the neutrons produced by DT fusion of the tritium are arguably more valuable than 1 tonne of thorium. It is the neutrons that the tritium can produce that are valuable rather than the tritium itself.
Last edited by Calliban (2024-05-28 09:12:30)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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For Calliban re #4
Thank you for your analysis and presentation on production of Tritium from Lithium, and (in particular) for you explanation of the relative amounts of Lithium that would be consumed.
Aside from the energy produced, which appears to be substantial, does the Tritium production of so few kilograms feed into a fusion process to justify all the mayhem imposed upon that ton of Thorium?
How much fusion power would that Tritium deliver?
We appear to be getting only 26 kg of Tritium from the consumption of a ton of Thorium.
On the other hand, that 26 kg of Tritium might justify all that effort if it produced a useful amount of fusion power.
The competition is the moon miners who are going to be sifting through mega tons of regolith to find helium-3.
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Hey Tahanson,
While I have no specific disagreement with the ChatGPT text you posted, I want to advise against using ChatGPT and similar applications in this way.
The way they work is something like pattern matching, and they're optimized for sounding good, but they're not actually thinking and it's not actually analyzing the viability of the idea—just pattern matching against the kind of responses similar queries have gotten.
One example is that I asked ChatGPT to do a little multiplication: 37383 x 284482
ChatGPT says 10,641,589,506
The actual answer? 10,634,790,606
It got it pretty close, but not correct, because it's giving you an answer that looks right based on the answers in its training set but not actually thinking or doing the math.
So what you're getting here is something that sounds like analysis but isn't really.
-Josh
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For JoshNHRH re #6
Thank you for sharing your opinion about what one of the AI systems is and how it works.
In evaluation of your observations, I deduce you have chosen to work with one of the early versions of ChatGPT which did not have an attached calculator feature. That problem has been corrected in the advanced version I am using. It is necessary to pay money to use the advanced version, and I have chosen to make that investment. I have been rewarded over and over again, and ChatGPT4o just keeps getting better. However, I do have a suggestion for someone who might think about using these advanced computing tools ... not everyone is suited to play the role of jockey on a powerful race horse. A friend just got into trouble working with an earlier version of ChatGPT, because ChatGPT confused two entirely different fields of data that happened to both apply to the question asked. My friend did not have the background to know the difference. From the experience you reported, and from my friend's experience, I take away two lessons ... pay close attention to the results produced, and be prepared to back them up.
For today's post in the Tritium topic, I have chosen to renew the topic with a refresher that ** I ** needed on the decay process of Tritium 3.
Search Labs | AI Overview
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Tritium is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen that decays into helium-3, a stable isotope of helium, by emitting beta rays (electrons). This decay process releases low-energy radiation, which raises concerns about the safety of tritium and other radioactive substances.
Tritium has a half-life of 12.33 years, meaning it takes about 12 years for half of its atoms to decay. The decay process can be represented by the following equation:Tritium decay helium-3 effects in tungsten - ScienceDirect
2.3. Decay equations for T decay 3He and 3He(n,H)T nuclear reaction. Eqs. (6)–(8) are the zero dimensional (0-D) conservation equa...ScienceDirect.com
Tritium Decay Helium-3 Effects in Tungsten - OSTI.GOV
to 1 at.% T/W (10,000 appm) in tungsten for ITER D-T and DEMO. Concern arises for T decaying. into 3He when the T accumulates to r...OSTI.GOV
Managing Water Budgets with the Help of the Tritium/Helium-3 ...
Jul 4, 2019 — As a radioactive isotope, tritium decays over a certain period of time and turns into helium-3, a stable isotope, which...
International Atomic Energy Agency
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The quote above does not explicitly explain the process, but one of the excess neutrons of Tritium decays into a proton by emitting an electron as a beta particles. The result is an atom with two protons.
I note here that I have not accounted for the report that the atomic number of the resulting Helium atom is 3, when the normal count is 4.
If someone would care to clarify that I would appreciate it.
I remain ** very ** interested in Tritium as an energy storage system for mass use, as reported in considerable detail earlier in the forum archive. As RobertDyck pointed out very recently, Tritium is currently produced by humans on Earth in minute quantities as a result of fission reactions. The quantities of Tritium I would need to build an industry supplying power for homes and businesses can only be supplied by fusion, and we have NO fusion systems on Earth as of today, 2024/08/22 (that I know of).
There may well be a functioning fusion reactor somewhere on Earth that is producing more energy than it consumes, but if there ** is ** one, it has not been publicized in a form that ** I ** have seen.
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