Shortages coming as supply chains crumble

Terraformer · 2022-03-04 12:41:09

Things are... not looking too good. They weren't looking good before, and then Russia invaded Ukraine. So now we have the effect of sanctions to worry about (which harm the sanctioners as well as the sanctioned -- if we weren't importing anything major they wouldn't work), as well as disruption to Ukrainian exports (which includes almost all the wheat Egypt imports). Fertiliser manufacturers were already struggling last year from high natural gas prices.

World grain production averages around 2.2 billion, enough for 11 billion people to have 2000 calories a day. A lot of that is fed to animals of course, and we get calories from other sources. So there is some slack in the system. Without any fertiliser at all, that slack disappears... and possibly goes negative. It shouldn't get that bad, at least not this year, but it's dicey. For people in rich countries that translates into far higher prices; for the poorest countries, into no food at all.

Worst of all, there doesn't seem to be any large scale movement to deal with this. It's planting season right now, so if we want victory gardens we need to start them soon. Alas, Boris is no Churchill.

kbd512 · 2022-03-04 13:00:29

Terraformer,

If the Russians take over Ukraine, do you think all those hungry people will still get fed, or will that surplus of agricultural product be withheld based upon the geopolitics of the moment, same as the various African dictators do to their own people?

Does Boris really need to tell his people to plant gardens, or is there enough "collective memory" of WWII to know what to do during hard times?

Is the default British subject not intelligent or independent enough to know that self-reliance is a good idea at all times, but especially during wartime?

Why wait for your government to tell you what to do? Why not simply make a half-way intelligent assessment of the crappy situation that governments have put you in, and then respond accordingly?

SpaceNut · 2022-03-04 18:00:51

The Russian have already been looting the foods as they go since they have been running out of everything in the process to take the Ukraine over.

Calliban · 2022-03-08 10:14:46

kbd512 wrote:

Terraformer,
If the Russians take over Ukraine, do you think all those hungry people will still get fed, or will that surplus of agricultural product be withheld based upon the geopolitics of the moment, same as the various African dictators do to their own people?
Does Boris really need to tell his people to plant gardens, or is there enough "collective memory" of WWII to know what to do during hard times?
Is the default British subject not intelligent or independent enough to know that self-reliance is a good idea at all times, but especially during wartime?
Why wait for your government to tell you what to do? Why not simply make a half-way intelligent assessment of the crappy situation that governments have put you in, and then respond accordingly?

Boris is a political opportunist. Nation builders are patriots and industrialists. The opposite of what Boris actually is. In modern Britain, houses and car parks have been built over much of the land that victory gardens would need. The UK population in WW2 was about half what it is now. And the government keeps importing more and more people every year and encouraging housing development as a way of 'building our way back to prosperity'. As if more houses and rif raf from the third world are going to replace the manufacturing base that these same politicians outsourced to the Chinese. Or the energy base needed to run it, having emptied north sea oil like an enema. You can't get much more stupid than the UK government. Just wholly impractical people who understand the legal system, media relations and human psychology. But nothing about physical science, or engineering anything real.

These sorts of people have no practical idea of how things work. Their skillset encourages them to ignore physical reality. Everything is a sort of public relations exercise, as if the world can be talked and manipulated into providing their vision of the future. They just don't think about the physical tools and processes that need to exist to actually make things. They think that the economy is a non-material, financial system, that they can stimulate to grow by loosening interest rates, creating and spending money and encouraging activity of any kind. The classic mindset of people that have never made or built anything. The same sort of magical thinking is evident in all this talk of victory gardens. As if such things can be talked and stimulated into existence, even after all the land they sit upon is under concrete. For eighty years people have been discouraged from taking personal responsibility. How far would people get if they decided to dig up the grass verge outside their house and plant vegetables? Leaving aside theft, vandalism and dog shit, these people would face an army of busy body local government control freaks, trying to stop their every move. And growing food is time consuming hobby.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-03-08 10:40:31)

Terraformer · 2022-03-08 11:24:31

It's quite hard to grow a victory garden when you don't have a garden, kbd. I don't know what you think houses are like in Britain, but they aren't set on quarter acre lots. Good thing we can outbid Africa I suppose. To be honest, we actually waste slightly more food than we import, so people very very tight with that would allow us to cut imports (and variety).

kbd512 · 2022-03-09 01:15:49

Terraformer,

What was the point of complaining about Johnson not being Churchill if you had neither the ability nor the intention of participating in any community farming activities?

What would Boris Johnson, or any other European leader for that matter, meaningfully do about the fact that the British Isles can't actually support the number of people living on it because money has been thrown every which way but loose?

It's far too late for any ideal solutions to materialize. If someone besides Boris Johnson was in office, would they wave a magic wand and miraculously undo the insanity of Vladimir Putin? How about stopping China's designs on Africa and their neighbors in Asia? I think not. Recall Mr Johnson and put someone else in charge if you think he's doing a lousy job. Ditto for your parliament. Any leader who dithers during a crisis needs to be shown the door.

I did my part by not voting for the dementia patient or his bi-polar patient side-kick who now inhabit 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but apparently he was very popular with those who were brainwashed by our "kid with an ant farm and magnifying glass" mass media. The last President, even if thoroughly disliked by his detractors and thought a moron on the basis of being factually correct about issues that actually matter, such as averting nuclear wars, he kept us far away from crazy world by projecting strength instead of weakness.

Ruthless dictators like Vladimir Putin view weakness as begging for a brutal attack, and that damned man views our senile old President as someone he can walk all over, so that's what he's doing as I write this. If Putin wanted respect from America or Europe, then he should've behaved respectably. Since he did not, he was treated accordingly. Instead of taking that as an object lesson in what not to do, he went off the deep end, and now everyone is paying the price for his behavior and our President not having the mental capacity to tell him where to shove it.

If you're expecting good answers to fall from the sky into your lap, there simply isn't one at this exact moment. However, I can tell you what the beginnings of a good solution looks like:

1. You start rebuilding real power generating infrastructure across Europe. If all these wind turbines and solar panels were making any discernible difference in meeting Europe's energy needs, then Europe wouldn't be reliant upon Russian oil and gas. If that means mining coal again, or drilling for more oil, or building new nuclear reactors, then so be it. Over-glorified pinwheels and sparklies are something you get to tinker with AFTER your energy needs have been met, never before.

2. You do business with your allies before doing business with your adversaries, forever and always. Russia need not be an enemy, but their leadership will almost certainly make them an adversary, and that's a simple historical fact that's not up for debate. This is in stark contrast to the constant "thumbing of noses" that Europeans do to each other and to America. Every American President for the past 20 years has asked our European NATO allies to spend more money on defense to put up a credible defense against Russian aggression, and every last one of your leaders basically thumbed their noses at our Presidents' simple request. Your leaders didn't want to spend the money. That's understandable, but it's still a non-starter. America doesn't want to, either, but we do it anyway because we know that we have to be responsible even when nobody else is.

3. You collaborate with your allies on weapon systems development, rather than allowing everyone to go off and create their own special version of every conceivable weapon system. NATO doesn't need a dozen different combat rifles, airplanes, tanks, artillery pieces, etc. The only results from that kind of "diversity", is to assure that our weapons cost more than they otherwise would, that lesser useful capability is embodied in each system (because each one was less well-developed), and that fewer of them are available when needed. There's not a dime's worth of difference between most of them, although unique capabilities should be preserved.

4. Longer-term, each nation in Europe needs food self-sufficiency, even if that means indoor farming or sea farming or bunker farms if destruction from an enemy air attack is probable. It'll require oodles of energy and that's obviously quite expensive, but starvation costs even more, so deal with it. Sharing is admirable and to be encouraged, but self-sufficiency is divine because it reduces the need to rely upon a resource that may become unavailable due to enemy action. America is more than willing to share our agricultural output with our European allies, but that's a temporary solution at best. As you already pointed out, Ukraine was the bread basket of Europe. Fruits and vegetables are important, but without starches and proteins, you starve to death.

5. Other basic commodities like clean water, medicine and medical supplies, metals and machining, microchips and computers, motor vehicles, and weapons also require domestic sources. Italy makes its own F-35s, for example. If the US disappeared into a black hole tomorrow, never to be seen or heard from again, then Italy and thus Europe would still have a domestic source for fighter jets equal to or better than anything that NATO's adversaries have. I know that Europe already has a lot of this stuff covered, but in many cases it also comes from specific source countries or factories on the other side of the world (China or Taiwan or Korea), and that poses a serious problem if that country is overrun or collapses internally.

SpaceNut · 2022-03-09 19:16:01

I have come to a conclusion that man has gone soft in that he will chose to do what is easy rather than what is hard in every situation.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-03-25 10:18:45

The cost of lithium — a metal used to make electric car batteries — is up nearly 500% since last year: 'Supply is simply nowhere near enough to feed this demand surge'

https://www.theblaze.com/news/lithium-c … cle-demand

SpaceNut · 2022-06-09 19:49:22

While the inflation is pushing up many a product that one needs to survive with some food becoming short in supply for period of time but usually they do come back into stock. Food insecurity is hard hitting those at the low end of income. Some things will need to be grown locally but others are processed from those to create some other food types.
Fresh foods are coming as the growing seasons for those that garden to relieve some of the in security that you might have but its going to be up to the individual to put in some effort. As these good do become available many will also sell them at local food markets and other local community farm stands.

kbd512 · 2022-06-09 20:44:14

SpaceNut,

After the trucks stop running, everything they delivered will no longer be available unless you go get it yourself. The real problems are on their way, and temporary stock-outs of specific goods are the least of our concerns.

SpaceNut · 2022-06-09 21:36:55

Products are No, you’re not imagining it — package sizes are shrinking

This is going on globally to slow the inflation but small means we are sending more of them further causing supply chain problems.

tahanson43206 · 2022-06-10 06:21:00

For SpaceNut re #11

I was surprised recently to find that a specific cleaning product I use sparingly has shrunk substantially in recent times.

I ran out of product in a can that was about 8 inches tall, and found the replacement is just over 5 inches tall. Even at the smaller size, it should last a year, but the previous one lasted for five years.

(th)

SpaceNut · 2022-06-10 19:00:54

The shrinking product size has been going for quite some time now with many products as a means to control shelf costs for the consumer.

I did see a few more signs advertising more farmers markets to be available since covid closed them.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-06-11 09:00:37

Shrinkflation is real...what I was not sure was real if the Klaus Schwab Great Reset Conspiracy...the soudns and visual apperance dress in those Asian robes, he's like a Bond villain that JoeRogan types talked about I wondered if it was real.
Globalism Dying? ...not yet...but I see clips of him where he says first you must start eating protein bugs and then own nothing
He carries with his Titles a bunch of Awards and Robes and Badges and Pins from the Vatican and British Royal family, Masonic or Asian Looking Designs French Legion of Honour Order of the Rising Sun.was knighted by Queen Elizabeth as Knight Commander of the British Empire...but then again these types also liked to award Nicolae Ceaușescu, Jimmy Savile or Robert Mugabe types.
Klaus an engineer, economist and founder of the World Economic Forum

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme … le-2022-06

Rethinking Supply Chains

and
there was that time a ship got stuck in the Suez Egypt

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-06-11 09:08:30)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-06-12 10:09:30

So Apparently There's a Tampon Shortage Now
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/apparen … 02941.html

SpaceNut · 2022-06-25 21:08:26

Not the only issue with America's factories as Kentucky aluminum plant idling, laying off 600 worker
for nine to 12 months starting in August.

So was there a sudden drop in usage of the materials or was it over producing

kbd512 · 2022-06-25 22:21:49

SpaceNut,

In all probability, there's an Aluminum shortage. You can't make products without the raw materials.

SpaceNut · 2022-07-01 15:55:20

This is not going to help the situation as California’s 70,000 owner-operators who have seven days to cease long-standing independent businesses, California’s Assembly Bill 5, a law that sets out three tests to determine whether a worker is an employee entitled to job benefits or an independent contractor who isn’t.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-07-02 10:15:41

Dutch farmers' protests cause severe delays on roads across the Netherlands

https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutc … etherlands

Major traffic jams are being reported across the Netherlands

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-25 12:12:34

BRICS expanded: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia become full members
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/273 … ll-members

Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia to join BRICS
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arg … 024342.cms

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-04-20 10:18:48

Houthi crisis in Red Sea spurs interest in alternative fiber routes

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/a … er-routes/

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-05-04 07:12:48

Italy neutralises Houthi drone attack in the Red Sea

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/italy-neut … a/76664502

SpaceNut · 2024-05-05 13:38:47

Some say that these are due to other reasons such as New report reveals concerning truth about homes located near megawarehouses: 'It's diminished our ability to thrive'

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#1 2022-03-04 12:41:09

Shortages coming as supply chains crumble

#2 2022-03-04 13:00:29

Re: Shortages coming as supply chains crumble

#3 2022-03-04 18:00:51

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#4 2022-03-08 10:14:46

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#5 2022-03-08 11:24:31

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#6 2022-03-09 01:15:49

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#7 2022-03-09 19:16:01

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#8 2022-03-25 10:18:45

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#9 2022-06-09 19:49:22

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#10 2022-06-09 20:44:14

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#11 2022-06-09 21:36:55

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#12 2022-06-10 06:21:00

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#13 2022-06-10 19:00:54

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#14 2022-06-11 09:00:37

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#15 2022-06-12 10:09:30

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#16 2022-06-25 21:08:26

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#17 2022-06-25 22:21:49

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#18 2022-07-01 15:55:20

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#19 2022-07-02 10:15:41

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#20 2023-08-25 12:12:34

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#21 2024-04-20 10:18:48

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#22 2024-05-04 07:12:48

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#23 2024-05-05 13:38:47

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