U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

RGClark · 2023-08-06 06:54:05

Three separate, independent lines of evidence give very strong reason to suspect there are large deposits of valuable metals at the lunar South Pole. But of all the countries sending landers to the lunar south polar site, the U.S. will be the only one that will have no instruments included for directing heavy metals there.

Astonishingly, while other countries who sent landers there would soon thereafter be drawing up plans to exploit the asteroid Psyche-like trillions of dollars of valuable metals detected, the U.S. would still be blind to the fact they are even there:

U.S. will lag behind in utilization of resources on the Moon.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2023/0 … on-of.html

Robert Clark

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-06 07:03:43

I don't know if I agree Robert because the future is difficult to predict, the USA of late has this ability to do very long complex international projects that seem like they might fall but then somehow they get it going for example 'JWST'. The Japanese politically are close to the USA and typically are an ally they are unlikely to go their own way like for example the French throwing a political hissy fit and doing their own thing on a joint ship project or space telescope project changing their minds the last second. The Japanese have not been part of a 'Non-Alligned Movement' like for example Cuba, Algeria, Venezuela, India, Yugoslavia they are not considered political rivals like Chinese. Japan currently works with the USA on the ISS and it is part of 21 nations have signed the non-binding, bilateral Artemis Accords, I am not sure Japan and the USA should be counted as separate in utilization of resource, they were enemies in WW2 but became very close during the ColdWar, ever since Russia invaded Ukraine the Japanese feel even closer again to the United States of America.

Some political info
https://web.archive.org/web/20061105092 … index.html
'participants to the Fourteenth Non Aligned Movement Summit'

In a New York Times analysis of YouGov data in 2017, American survey respondents ranked Japan as their 21st closest ally, also behind other key American allies. Japan is currently one of the most pro-American countries in the world, with 67% of Japanese viewing the United States favorably
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 … ralia.html
,
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018 … ent-trump/
,
63% of people in Japan named the United States their closest ally, far higher than any other country named by Japanese
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 … -a-threat/

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-08-06 07:13:19)

GW Johnson · 2023-08-06 08:52:47

Two things are crucial to mining: (1) the technologies for extraction, and (2) the concentration of the resource to be extracted. Either one by itself can be a project killer.

The suite of technologies for extracting metals from rocks here on Earth exists. The suite of technologies to do that in vacuum, and at reduced or even zero gravity, do NOT yet exist! That alone is a killer. It will take many small scale trials, and many, many failures, before that suite of technologies does exist! Even then, the suite may, or may not, successfully scale up.

Even if the suite of technologies existed at full scale, low concentrations of these resources (and that even applies to water in the soil!) may well preclude feasible extraction, much less profitable. Example: there is gold dissolved in sea water, but no one has ever bothered trying to extract it. Why? Too dilute. Technically infeasible. No chance of being profitable.

Just food for thought. All the hype about these prospecting spacecraft going to the moon is just that: hype. They can only put numbers to how dilute this stuff is. Means of detection cannot address feasible technology suites at all. So, serious talk of a lunar mining industry in any real sense is WAY premature! Which also means putting a price tag on the materials to be extracted is also WAY premature!

GW

kbd512 · 2023-08-06 12:33:34

Why are we not conducting those trial-and-error experiments now, so that we are best positioned to take advantage of anything we do run across that happens to be exploitable?

Mining of functionally inexhaustible supplies of metals, as compared to the metal supply here on Earth, is how you expand your economy and wealth. Mining is how we went from subsistence farming to industrialization. We went from crushing and degrading poverty for almost everyone, with no hope of ever rising above, to everyone in society not physically or mentally disabled or solely engaged in idle pursuits living better lives than all the kings and queens of antiquity. Every part of modernity began with steel, concrete, glass, and running water. Nobody had to explain the value of concrete to the Romans, nor why having more concrete was more better.

It's a little odd to point out that space-based resources are currently very expensive when Aluminum was once more valuable than Gold, yet now it gets tossed in the trash more often than not. If the government retires risk of bankruptcy over the issue of scientific experimentation not paying off in the near-term, by figuring out how to mine metals in space, then someone here on Earth will figure out how to exploit the resource and add to humanity's overall wealth. Government-backed defense contractors figured out how to build interplanetary rockets. Men like Elon Musk and Peter Beck came along and figured out how to make them affordable.

There was no Uranium mining industry prior to governments spending the money to figure out how to turn that metal into weapons and electrical power sources. Invent the new space-based mining methods first, then let the entrepreneurs figure out how to make them affordable. We invented advanced microchips, and then people in Taiwan / Japan / Korea figured out how to make them cheap and reliable. Someone like Jeff Bezos can figure out how to economically ship the product back to Earth. The government also invented the internet, but other people came along to figure out how to deliver its power and capabilities to almost everyone. School children in Africa, who have trouble finding clean drinking water, still have cell phones.

Cell phones today are nearly ubiquitous in African society. Teenagers and young adults are obsessed by them, carrying them around everywhere. The World Bank and African Development Bank report there are 650 million mobile users in Africa, surpassing the number in the United States or Europe.

All that came from a dude who invented a walkie-talkie for soldiers to use in battle during WWII, a government project to share research on weapons projects between different facilities in the 1970s, and a satellite-based positioning system intended to provide accurate coordinates for dropping bombs. I can guarantee you that not one of those people involved was thinking to themselves, "One day, I'd like to give children in Africa access to an infinite library, a way to order products while walking around and talking to their friends, and oh yeah, a way to locate each other on a map."

Now you can walk into a grocery store, pretty much anywhere on the planet, including North Korea, and purchase a smart phone for $20 to $40, that our own government / military spent billions of dollars to come up with and develop.

We took a spark of genius, blew on it, the spark became an ember, we added more fuel, so it become a real fire, we added some more capability with different kinds of fuel, and thereafter the idea took on a life of its own. Nobody had to throw more tax dollars at the communications problem, in order to solve it. The problem of communicating with everyone, anywhere in the wold, at any time of our choosing, has now solved itself.

GW Johnson · 2023-08-07 09:41:43

What I said in post #3 does not contradict what Kbd512 said in post #4. He is exactly correct in saying we need to go out there and do these prospecting missions, and attempt these (initially) lab-scale mining experiments. I concur.

My take is that while doing these things, do NOT expect a high success rate or a near-term profit! The odds simply do not favor that, and the track records to date agree with my more pessimistic assessment about early success.

A few of these things, particularly the extraction experiments, will succeed at some level. Most of them will not. Only a minority of the successful ones will successfully scale up to something industrially practical. If you go into this with eyes wide open, then those failures will not surprise or deter you.

One other thing to consider: per Kbd512 in post #4, yes, aluminum was once quite rare and more valuable than gold. Now plentiful, it is cheap enough to throw away instead of recycling the way we do with steel. (Yes, it ought to be recycled.) Assuming one of these asteroids really does produce "zillions" of tons of the various expensive rare earth elements, once those zillions of tons are brought here to Earth, that stuff is no longer rare. It value accordingly plummets.

While there is profit to be be made, it won't be in the $trillions. Regardless, there is benefit to be had from making the rare into commonplace. So, yes, we need to go and figure out how to extract that stuff. But believing there are $trillions to be made doing it, is a foolish notion.

We really do need to go and do these things. But we need to do them to realistic expectations.

GW

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-14 08:29:29

Some ISRO news

Orbit circularisation phase commences
Precise maneuvre performed today has achieved a near-circular orbit of 150 km x 177 km
https://twitter.com/isro/status/1690978432321269760
The next operation is planned for August 16, 202

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-16 14:08:34

Chandrayaan-3 vs. Luna-25: Are India and Russia racing to the moon's south pole?

https://www.space.com/chandrayaan-3-vs- … e-showdown

It’s been touted as a race to the lunar south pole, but there's much more to India's and Russia’s moon shots than who lands first. India's Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander launched on July 14 and entered lunar orbit on Aug. 5. It is currently lowering its orbit in preparation for a landing attempt that's expected to occur on Aug. 23. Meanwhile, Russia is making its first visit to the moon since 1976, when its Soviet-era sample return mission dubbed Luna-24 took place.

RGClark · 2023-08-17 05:10:21

The Indian lander does have instruments for detecting heavy metals, as does the Chinese lander as well. However, the Russian Luna-25 does not. Like with the American landers, the Russians assume the only thing interesting there would be the water and volatiles. They no doubt think they know what the Moons regolith and rocks look like from their previous landers so there is no need to check the heavy metal content.

I think that argument is flawed. The fact that the LCROSS mission showed not only elevated volatiles but also metals such as magnesium, sodium, mercury etc. shows there is something different there in regards to metals as well.

See this graphic of detections by LCROSS in the lunar south polar region:

DbG158TVAAEdYfs?format=jpg&name=small

Robert Clark

Void · 2023-08-17 08:26:31

Thanks for the nice table RGClark.

Done

Last edited by Void (2023-08-17 08:26:56)

RGClark · 2023-08-22 08:49:31

Too bad about Luna-25 but one of the rovers sent to the lunar South Pole has to succeed. If the abundance of precious metals suggested to exist there by multiple lines of evidence is confirmed then we may finally have the “killer app” that brings us a large market, and thereby low cost, not just of spaceflight to LEO but even for interplanetary spaceflight as well.

See this article on the detections by the LCROSS orbital mission:

Prospecting for native metals in lunar polar craters.
January 2014
Warren Platts, Dale Boucher, George Randall Gladstone
ABSTRACT

One of the more astonishing results of the LCROSS mission were spectra indicating large concentrations ofnative precious metals. We hypothesize that the reported metal concentrations represent electrostatic placerdeposits: we theorize that electrostatic dust transport preferentially favors transport of submicron-sized nativemetal particles that get trapped in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) within much smaller subareas wheresolar wind wake effects are minimal. We review the LRO LAMP and SSC UV/VIS data and note that severalspectral emission lines in the UV are consistent with the presence of platinum, as well as silver and gold. Wealso conduct a numerical simulation that shows that levitation of submicron-sized gold particles is favoredcompared with dielectric dust particles. We then develop an ore genesis model that predicts a soil massabundance of 0.11% for Au within the ore body trap that is in rough agreement with the estimate of 0.52% forAu based on the LRO LAMP column density observations. We apply the same methodology to Hg, and predicta soil mass abundance of 0.53% Hg, compared with an estimated 0.39% Hg based on LRO LAMP columndensities.Greenfield ore grades are determined initially by remote sensing techniques and ore body genesis modeling;secondly by exploratory drilling and sampling; and finally by close-in ore body delineation (detailed samplingand analysis) to provide a 3D picture of the ore body of interest. Now that we have in hand a large body ofvarious remote sensing data sets, and a predictive ore genesis model, we propose to undertake the second step—exploratory drilling. Since the occurrence of electrostatic placer deposits tends to coincide with deposits ofvolatiles, the upcoming Resource Prospector Mission (RPM) will be in an ideal position to detect native preciousmetals as well as volatiles. However, the Lunar Advanced Volatile Analysis (LAVA) instrument can onlycharacterize volatiles below 70 AMU, whereas Ag, Pt, Au, and Hg atoms range in mass from 108 to 200 AMU.Therefore, we propose that an “X-Ray Spectrometer System” (XSS) be added to the RPM rover as a secondaryscientific payload. The XSS instrument will primarily consist of an X-ray fluorescence detector (XRF) thatoffers the right combination of low mass, low power requirements, high speed, and high accuracy (ppm levelfor heavy precious metals). Finally, since water derived from PSRs will eventually be intended for humanconsumption, the likely high concentration of Hg in PSRs is a potentially grave health hazard, and representsa huge knowledge gap in our understanding of how to work and live on the lunar surface that is left unaddressedby the RPM in its present configuration

(PDF) Prospecting for native metals in lunar polar craters. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio … ar_craters [accessed Aug 21 2023].

Bob Clark

GW Johnson · 2023-08-22 08:54:19

The 5.5% water figure is about 50 times that in lunar soil at the non-polar sites (0.1% water). That's in the low range of what we would consider acceptable concentrations for a mineral resource here on Earth. Crude oils have 3-60% mass percentages of usable hydrocarbons, with the higher percentages far more valuable. Iron ores have 48-72% iron in them.

That should give you some idea of what the percentage concentrations should look like for a potential off-planet resource to be worth the effort of trying to recover.

As for the moon, the real question would be are there any lozenges or veins of mostly-ice buried in the polar regolith? THAT would be a resource truly worth mining! But it will take ground truth to determine. You will NOT find that (or its lack) by crashing small spacecraft into the surface and looking at debris plumes.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2023-08-22 08:55:03)

Calliban · 2023-08-22 10:39:44

A 0.1% water concentration in lunar regolith is only 1/9th the water content of Saharan sand during the day and only 1/20th its humidity at night.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com … jgrd.50863

That is something to think about. The sand of the Sahara desert is 9-20x wetter than lunar regolith. The Sahara isn't a place that humans are rushing to inhabit primarily because of its absence of water. The moon is a desert for which there is no parallel here on Earth.

RGClark · 2023-08-28 14:05:57

Chandrayaan-3 already returning exciting, unexpected data:

ISRO Spaceflight @ISROSpaceflight
Yesterday, ISRO revealed the first ever sub-surface temperature readings from the Moon's South Polar region!

They used the ChaSTE instrument on the Vikram Lander to drill a probe into the Lunar surface and take temp. readings at various depths.?

Results show that while the temp. at the surface is ~50°C ?, it quickly goes down to -10°C ❄️ only 8 cm below the surface!

This observation increases the hopes of finding water ice below the surface near the Moon's South Pole! ?

Image credit:
@VikranthJonna

#Chandrayaan3 #ISRO

https://twitter.com/isrospaceflight/sta … 49021?s=61

Bob Clark

Last edited by RGClark (2023-08-28 14:06:54)

Void · 2023-08-28 19:04:07

I am very happy that India can give the world this contribution. Excellent!

Done

Calliban · 2023-08-29 00:42:31

It is interesting, but certainly not unexpected. Regolith in vacuum is a extremely good insulator.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/201 … hment=true

Void · 2023-08-29 07:56:30

I think that I read recently that 210 k is a temperature where solid phase on water is almost entirely dominant, even in a hard vacuum.

-63.15 C then.

But it is feared that the solar wind somehow can still eroded ice away over time. But the solar wind is also supposed to give and not take.

I recently read that some craters may have magnetic fields that are enough to protect from the solar wind. That is suggested in this article: https://www.vice.com/en/article/epx9wp/ … ntists-say

So, the rules are not just according to air pressure and temperature.

I would wonder if high regolith spots not only would shade things, but also to some degree deflect the solar wind.

So, I think that there is some hope that some craters of a small size may allow a water collection device to go into them and have a proximate solar energy source. Either by a cable or with a high mast that might reach into the sunlight. So, at first you may not have to get extremely hardcore and go into the giant shadowed craters.

We have some notion of ions flowing over and inside the Lunar Regolith. https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/92786906 … ny-surface

Vacuum tube technology would be related to this.

Lets take a light bulb on the moon, and impose a (-) charge on it's insides. Then lets spray it with a (-) electron beam pointed to it's outsides.

I believe that because we went to solid state electronics with dominant thinking about electron flow, it may be true that the thought that ions on the Moon could form an electric circuit is not obvious.

One thing that has greatly annoyed me is I recall reading how electric circuits applied to soil can develop a damp spot at the (-) electrode. My paranoia has induced me to suppose that this is being suppressed as a potential military secret. (It was experimented with by the NAZI to dry up fields so that tanks could pass).

But the experiments alternately lubricated plough blades by putting the (-) electrode on the plough blade.

So, for the Moon, if there are ion flows of (+) ions can we attract them to a condenser with a negative electrode?

Our condenser could be of a cold temperature to attempt to create a solid phase of (+) Ions on a cold surface. But we might also conder the British notion of a condenser, which in my world is a capacitor.

This assembly kept very cold most of the time during collection, but periodically impose a vacuum bell over it and thaw the results and pump the resulting neutralized molecules out of it.

I am hoping that such a trap might capture molecules that are mobile in and on the surface of the regolith.

This would be much less trouble than mining the dark shaded craters by disrupting the regolith.

Done

My hope would be that the hole flow of the ions collecting on the outer surface of the bulb would meet the electrons from the electron beam, and would become neutral molecules and so then be attracted to the surface by a significant electric (-) polarity inside the bulb. And then is the temperature conditions are sufficiently cold a transition to a solid phase.

This might also collect things from the atmosphere of the Moon as well?

Well I am sure someone can figure out if it is worth a try.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2023-08-29 11:34:02)

RGClark · 2023-09-03 07:01:52

The rover has already been parked and put in sleep mode in preparation for the upcoming lunar night:

https://twitter.com/isro/status/1698010732128764164

Multiple lines of evidence suggest abundant precious metals at the lunar South Pole:

Prospecting for native metals in lunar polar craters.
January 2014
Warren Platts, Dale Boucher, George Randall Gladstone
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio … ar_craters

A hypothetical scenario:

ISRO scientists are pleased to see large amounts of water in the lunar regolith. They immediately release this data to the world. But looking at the APXS data they are astonished to find high levels of platinum, gold, silver, and uranium and other valuable minerals right in the lunar regolith. You could literally scoop up the lunar soil to get huge amounts of the valuable minerals. The ISRO scientist are about to release the data to the world, when they get a call from the Indian military. They want a consultation before this data is released.

Comes the end of the mission after 14 days and the results of the APXS are still not released. U.S. and other scientists around the world inquire when the data will be released. ISRO scientists respond they want to give Indian scientists first crack at publishing on these results. And actually, that is not an uncommon practice for expensive science projects to want the scientists who worked on the project to have first crack at analyzing the data.

A year later the data is still not released. U.S. and other scientists around the world inquire when the data will be released. ISRO responds the data is more complicated than expected. It may take 5, 10 years or more before the data is properly analyzed.

Meanwhile, after China sends its lander to the Moon it releases the data showing large amounts of water or the Moon, but the results of the APXS instrument are delayed. China responds also it wants to give their scientists proper time to analyze the data.

During this time, the U.S. landers also show large amounts of water in the lunar regolith. However, they don’t have instruments for measuring heavy elements. So they just assume they are at the same levels as seen by the previous U.S. robotic landers and Apollo missions to the Moon at locations other than the lunar South Pole.

Last edited by RGClark (2023-09-03 07:12:42)

Void · 2023-09-03 18:45:52

It is interesting. I hope these things can be confirmed.

Done.

RGClark · 2023-09-06 12:50:19

SEPTEMBER 3, 2023
Editors' notes
India's moon rover completes its walk, scientists analyzing data looking for signs of frozen water.
by Ashok Sharma
The data is back on Earth and will be analyzed by Indian scientists as a first look and then by the global community, he said.
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-india-moo … rozen.html

The 14-day primary mission of Chandrayaan-3 has been completed, but the water and heavy metal data have not been released to the public. My speculations above may have some validity.

Robert Clark

Last edited by RGClark (2023-09-07 07:15:33)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-12-29 06:37:21

Japan’s SLIM successfully enters lunar orbit, gears up for precision moon landing
https://spacenews.com/japans-slim-succe … n-landing/

Luna-25 crash 57.865°S 61.360°E more than 12.5 billion roubles (over US$130 million) had been spent on the project https://web.archive.org/web/20230822132 … 57068.html

Japan moon probe enters lunar orbit, on target to become fifth country to achieve landing
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asi … january-20

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-02-11 04:28:22

Insight - Lunar Space Cooperation Initiatives

https://swfound.org/news/all-news/2024/ … nitiatives

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-03-02 07:28:12

a question asked, understandable with recent failures or partial success

Peregrine Mission One a NASA failure, Russian failure with Luna-25, Lunar Flashlight failure, Beresheet failure, the islamism semi-constitutional monarchy Emirates Lunar Rover Mission with a Japan Lander ends in failure, CubeSat for Solar Particles Moon flyby was a failure, LunaH-Map failure, Lunar IceCube failure.

Japan now somewhat successful and Intuitive Machines contracted to NASA somewhat sucessful

'Could Apollo survive the lander toppling over?'

https://space.stackexchange.com/questio … pling-over

Mars_B4_Moon · 2024-03-29 04:24:50

online translation - 'successful in its second overnight.'
https://twitter.com/SLIM_JAXA/status/17 … 9947996297
昨晩SLIMから応答があり、SLIMが2回目の越夜に成功したことを確認しました。昨晩はまだ太陽が高く機器が高温であることから急ぎ航法カメラによりいつもの風景の撮影などを短時間実施いたしました

Japan Moon probe survives second lunar night

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Japa … t_999.html

Japan's Moon lander woke up after unexpectedly surviving a second frigid, two-week lunar night and transmitted new images back to Earth, the country's space agency said Thursday.

The unmanned Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) probe touched down in January, making Japan only the fifth nation to reach the lunar surface without crashing.

But the lightweight spacecraft landed at a wonky angle that left its solar panels facing the wrong way.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency announced the probe's latest surprise awakening in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

New Mars Forums

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#1 2023-08-06 06:54:05

U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#2 2023-08-06 07:03:43

Re: U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#3 2023-08-06 08:52:47

Re: U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#4 2023-08-06 12:33:34

Re: U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#5 2023-08-07 09:41:43

Re: U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#6 2023-08-14 08:29:29

Re: U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#7 2023-08-16 14:08:34

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#8 2023-08-17 05:10:21

Re: U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#9 2023-08-17 08:26:31

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#10 2023-08-22 08:49:31

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#11 2023-08-22 08:54:19

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#12 2023-08-22 10:39:44

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#13 2023-08-28 14:05:57

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#14 2023-08-28 19:04:07

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#15 2023-08-29 00:42:31

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#16 2023-08-29 07:56:30

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#17 2023-09-03 07:01:52

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#18 2023-09-03 18:45:52

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#19 2023-09-06 12:50:19

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#20 2023-12-29 06:37:21

Re: U.S. will lag behind in exploitation of lunar resources.

#21 2024-02-11 04:28:22

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#22 2024-03-02 07:28:12

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#23 2024-03-29 04:24:50

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