Vincent Weather, US

Vincent · 2012-10-30 09:19:00

Storm Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1014 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-302315-
/O.CON.KLOT.SR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-121030T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0050.121030T2100Z-121101T0200Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
1014 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

FOR ALL OPEN WATERS...

* WINDS...NORTH STORM FORCE TO 50 KT TODAY...NORTH GALES TO 45 KT
TONIGHT...NORTH GALES TO 40 KT WEDNESDAY.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...19 TO 24 FT TODAY...SUBSIDING TO 14 TO 18 FT
TONIGHT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...TO 31 FT TODAY...SUBSIDING TO 24 FT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK
SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

GW Johnson · 2012-10-30 14:31:19

Vincent:

There is no good way to dry carpet except streams of heated dry air. Even then, the pad underneath (which most homes and apartments generally have) will mildew before you can get it to dry. If you have carpet over pad, I'd strongly recommend pulling them up and drying them. It is possible to reuse them, but there may be staining or shrinkage distortion.

A lot depends upon how deep the water got, in order to wet your carpet. It will infiltrate the walls and wet your sheetrock, your insulation, and your framing. If the sheetrock shows no signs of disintegration above the baseboards, you do not have to remove it. Mold will develop in the wet materials inside the wall, but then will die once the water is dried up.

You generally do not need to rip out walls barely wetted somewhere hidden down inside the baseboards. I know the remediation guys say you need to rip it all out, but that's how they make more money. Mold does not live in the dry.

GW

clark · 2012-10-30 21:12:53

Kerouac himself would get a nose bleed from this stream of consciousness.

Koeng · 2012-10-31 15:02:19

clark wrote:

Kerouac himself would get a nose bleed from this stream of consciousness.

I don't get it

-Koeng

Vincent · 2012-11-02 09:24:34

clark wrote:

Kerouac himself would get a nose bleed from this stream of consciousness.

You sort of got to know how I get down. I usually clean up the noise the next morning but I lost power. They said they had to bring us down to replace a major component that flooded out, down line. Just got power back and did a little house cleaning.

One room of carpet was a total loss. Had to have the padding removed and subfloor treated so no mold would develop.

That was a hell of a storm.....

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-11-02 09:25:14)

Vincent · 2012-11-02 10:30:28

There are rumors of a Nor'easter for the mid-Atlantic mid-week. This is only potential. There are hints that the 500mb long wave trof may fragment and a cut-off vortex would develop. This would retard necessary thermal dynamics and send the vort max meandering off the coast and into the Canadian Maritimes.

In other words the models diverge. Let's not scare the people. Worst case scenario, 995mb low off Nantucket. That's 40 mbs higher and 75 nautical miles further east than Sandy. Max wind 50 kts vs., max wind 100 kts with Sandy.

After Sandy, one could call this a stable wave.....

No nose bleed intended.....

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-11-02 10:56:58)

Vincent · 2012-11-02 11:41:42

Consensus of 12Z data with known climatology shows a brief intense storm off Hatteras, 995mb storm with winds 40mph moving northeast with main precip band off the coast, Moderate to heavy snow possible over Maine and the gulf of Maine as storm rotates with cut-off 500mb vort max.

Light snow in the Appalachians, 2-4 inches.

Next major storm in the Rockies 7-10 days.

Vincent

Last edited by Vincent (2012-11-02 12:53:55)

Vincent · 2012-11-02 12:07:01

Apologies,

There is a fine line between genius and insanity. Unfortunately on occasion you will see me drift over the line. I try to clean up when I can. This forum does allow for that and I am grateful. Music is an outlet for me. I can get artsy.....

Next storm in the Rockies.......

Sometimes I play with the dust that dance in the beams in the window....

Vincent

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koyjHm1revA

Last edited by Vincent (2012-11-02 12:41:30)

Vincent · 2012-11-02 13:14:30

ECMF is a statistical outlier. It is, however, a major model. It suggest moderate to heavy snow in Western Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York state.

Vincent

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqlJl1LfDP4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPQD5RT_ … re=related

f144 by dfrank39, on Flickr

Last edited by Vincent (2012-11-02 14:06:06)

Vincent · 2012-11-05 10:32:35

Nor'easter seems likely. This will be a nuisance to the recovery efforts. Max winds 40-50 mph. Rain on the coast will mix with snow at times inland from Baltimore, and points north and west, on Wednesday.

Snowfall totals 4-8 inches in the high country of West Virginia, Maryland, Penn state, and New England.

Major winter storm gathers in the Rockies late week.. Temperatures falling to -15F with wind driven snow in Montana. Snow totals 1-2 feet, then blowing and drifting snow.

Vincent

tahanson43206 · 2023-04-05 10:41:20

Vincent suddenly stopped reporting the weather in November of 2012

This topic was created to discuss US weather, and the vast majority of the posts are about weather. GW Johnson took part, when the focus turned to Texas. A couple of other members showed up but in my opinion they did not appear to be supporting the topic. In the post immediately after this one, if the Apache Internal Error will permit it, I will re-open this topic with a question about weather modification.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2023-04-05 10:41:34

20230405 ChatGPT Weather modification

Hello again! This request will draw upon your "knowledge" of physics in the context of meteorology. Assume a cloud full of water is approaching shore from the ocean. Meteorologists are predicting the cloud will release the water it contains after it reaches land. Water can be energized/heated/jiggled by microwave energy. My question is: If the water in the cloud were heated to steam by microwaves as it approaches land, what would happen?
As a language model, I can provide a scientific explanation based on the known principles of physics and meteorology.
When a cloud approaches the shore, it is typically composed of water droplets or ice crystals. If the cloud were to be heated by microwaves, the water droplets or ice crystals could absorb the energy and undergo a phase change from a liquid or solid state to a gas (water vapor). This is because the microwaves can transfer energy to the water molecules, causing them to vibrate faster and increase in temperature.
However, it is important to note that the heating of a cloud by microwaves would require a significant amount of energy, and it is unlikely that this would occur naturally. Additionally, even if the cloud were to be heated by microwaves, it would not necessarily lead to the immediate release of all the water it contains. The release of water from a cloud typically occurs when the air temperature and pressure change, causing the water droplets or ice crystals to become too heavy to remain suspended in the air and fall as precipitation (such as rain or snow).
Therefore, while it is theoretically possible for a cloud to be heated by microwaves and for the water within it to be converted to steam, this scenario is highly unlikely to occur in a natural setting.

Thank you for your response, which shows you understand the scenario we are considering. However, your response contains references to nature/natural. The imposition of microwave energy upon a cloud approaching shore would most emphatically NOT be natural. Instead, it would be an attempt by humans to prevent damage on land that can be expected if the cloud reaches land, and unloads it's water there. Please try again. We want the cloud and all the water it contains to pass over the land and return to the ocean, where it can unload it's water content safely. To what temperature would the water in the cloud need to be heated so that the cloud will pass safely over land and return to the ocean?
My apologies for the confusion in my previous response.
In response to your updated scenario, if we assume that the cloud is heated by microwaves as it approaches land, the water droplets or ice crystals in the cloud could indeed be converted to water vapor or steam. The specific temperature required to achieve this phase change would depend on various factors, such as the initial temperature and pressure of the cloud, as well as the wavelength and intensity of the microwave radiation.
However, it is important to note that even if the water in the cloud were converted to steam, the cloud would still have the potential to release its water content as precipitation, such as rain or snow, depending on the temperature and pressure of the surrounding air. Additionally, the heating of the cloud by microwaves would require a significant amount of energy and it would not be feasible to heat an entire cloud to the required temperature to convert all the water droplets or ice crystals to steam.
Furthermore, attempting to alter the behavior of a cloud in this manner could have unintended consequences and potentially lead to unforeseen meteorological events. Therefore, it is not currently a feasible or recommended approach for managing weather patterns.
In summary, while it is possible in theory to convert the water in a cloud to steam by heating it with microwaves, it is not a practical or feasible solution for managing weather patterns.

ChatGPT, you are (currently) not equipped to run a weather model. However, you have peers who are designed to do just exactly that. Would you agree that one of your peers who is designed to simulate the atmosphere, could make an accurate prediction of the effect adding thermal energy to a cloud would have, under meteorological conditions existing at the time?
As a language model, I do not have peers in the traditional sense, as I am an artificial intelligence tool. However, there are indeed advanced weather models that are specifically designed to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere and can make predictions about the effects of various meteorological conditions.
These models can take into account a wide range of factors, including temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, and other atmospheric variables. They can also incorporate various types of inputs, including thermal energy added to a cloud, and predict how the cloud and the surrounding atmosphere will respond under those conditions.
However, it is important to note that even with advanced models, predicting the behavior of the atmosphere and weather patterns can be a complex and challenging task. There are many factors that can influence the behavior of a cloud, and small changes in conditions can lead to significant differences in outcomes. Therefore, while weather models can provide valuable insights and predictions, they are not infallible, and their predictions should be considered in the context of other available information and expertise.

ChatGPT ... humans must manage risk. There are organizations of humans designed to manage risk. Weather imposes risks to humans. At present, humans have developed computer models to help the humans to try to predict what weather is going to do. What I am pointing out that it is possible to add or subtract energy from atmosphere masses. At present humans cannot add or subtract energy from the atmosphere, except in tiny amounts, such as by placing reflective material over the ground to prevent over heating, or doing something similar over snow to prevent snow from melting. In your closing paragraph of the previous response, you have "wisely" reminded your readers that there are risks involved in using a computer model to try to predict the weather. I am reminding ** you ** that there are very significant risks of severe damage and even death due to doing nothing.
You are correct that managing risk is an important part of human society, and that weather can impose significant risks to humans and other life forms. It is also true that there are limits to what humans can currently do to add or subtract energy from the atmosphere on a large scale, and that many current efforts to manage weather risks focus on predicting weather patterns and responding to them through preparedness and mitigation strategies.
However, it is important to note that any effort to add or subtract energy from the atmosphere on a large scale would need to be carefully evaluated and tested before implementation, as it could have unintended consequences or unforeseen impacts on weather patterns and the environment.
Furthermore, while computer models can provide valuable insights and predictions about weather patterns, they are not infallible, and their predictions should be considered in the context of other available information and expertise. As with any risk management strategy, it is important to take a comprehensive approach that considers a range of potential scenarios and responses, and to remain vigilant and adaptable in the face of changing conditions and new information.

So! within the limits of your ability, can you envision raising the temperature of water in a cloud to the point the water will rise with respect to the ground?
Yes, it is possible to raise the temperature of water in a cloud to the point where the water vaporizes and rises with respect to the ground. When the temperature of the water in the cloud is heated to its boiling point, the water will begin to turn into water vapor, which is less dense than liquid water and will rise upwards due to buoyancy. The water vapor will then condense back into liquid droplets at a higher altitude where the air pressure and temperature are lower, forming a new cloud.
However, it is important to note that this process is complex and can be influenced by a wide range of factors, including the initial conditions of the cloud, the temperature and pressure of the surrounding atmosphere, and other meteorological variables. In addition, artificially heating a cloud in this way could have unintended consequences and is not a recommended approach for managing weather risks.

Who are you quoting that thinks this is not a "recommended approach"
I apologize for any confusion my previous response may have caused. To be clear, as an AI language model, I do not quote any specific sources or individuals, nor do I have personal opinions or beliefs. Rather, I provide information based on my training data and the context of the questions I receive.
Regarding the idea of artificially heating a cloud, it is not a commonly used or recommended approach for managing weather risks. Instead, current strategies focus on predicting weather patterns and responding to them through preparedness and mitigation strategies. Additionally, any large-scale interventions in the atmosphere would need to be thoroughly evaluated and tested before implementation, as they could have unintended consequences or unforeseen impacts on weather patterns and the environment.

Would you agree that "unforeseen" impacts are accompanied by "foreseen" impacts?
Yes, it is possible for unforeseen impacts to be accompanied by foreseen impacts. In fact, many efforts to manage risks involve considering both the expected and unexpected consequences of a particular action or intervention. This includes assessing potential risks and benefits, as well as evaluating the likelihood and severity of different outcomes. By considering a range of potential scenarios and responses, decision-makers can make more informed choices and better manage potential risks.

It would appear (to me at least) that a productive pathway for further investigation of the idea we've been discussing would be through an agency that developed and runs an atmospheric model. The question is NOT theoretical. While you are not able to take in current data except through your visitors, I can assure you that predictions of increasingly violent weather are coming to us humans with increasing frequency. Catch you next time.
Yes, further investigation of the idea of manipulating the temperature of a cloud through the use of microwaves or other methods would be best conducted by experts in the field, such as meteorologists or atmospheric scientists, who have access to sophisticated atmospheric models and data. As you note, predictions of increasingly violent weather are a growing concern, and addressing these risks will require collaboration and innovation across a range of fields.
Thank you for the discussion, and feel free to reach out again in the future if you have any further questions or topics you would

(th)

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#76 2012-10-30 09:19:00

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#77 2012-10-30 14:31:19

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#78 2012-10-30 21:12:53

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#79 2012-10-31 15:02:19

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#80 2012-11-02 09:24:34

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#81 2012-11-02 10:30:28

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#82 2012-11-02 11:41:42

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#83 2012-11-02 12:07:01

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#84 2012-11-02 13:14:30

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#85 2012-11-05 10:32:35

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#86 2023-04-05 10:41:20

Re: Vincent Weather, US

#87 2023-04-05 10:41:34

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