You are not logged in.
SpaceNut,
So long as you know what's about to happen, which is the end result of a litany of egregiously bad policy decisions, then I guess you're accepting of what you voted for.
Offline
Actually, did not vote for either but then again that is the price of 1 or the other for a choice level.
The price at the pump has continued to drop in spite of those that want to price gouge.
Which has been the issue in that new wells on existing lots or property is where the buck has stopped for exploration. The Energy Department would begin purchasing oil to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve when oil prices are $67 to $72 a barrel, or less. Which is a fixed future price that exists today for what we are buying it for.
So far, the massive drawdowns have been matched by a timid increase in domestic production. Even with the benchmark for U.S. crude oil reaching $120 a barrel earlier this year, producers have kept a low profile, churning out about 12 million barrels a day, a 6% increase from January production, according to federal data for the week ended Oct. 14.
Offline
Tonight's fuel price is up now at $3.71 a gallon.
The newest game is to price gouge in the supply and demand market share.
Saudi energy minister slams release of oil reserves as 'mechanism to manipulate markets'
It's only a short-term lessening of cost to the public where the increase is a net average over the government fixed price buying.
The US supply is just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration and that is even after the release which means the game is also being played state side to reduce what is available. U.S. inventory stood at 106.2 million barrels of distillate, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, in the week ended Oct. 14, the Energy Information Administration.
Offline
US diesel in storage falls dangerously low.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-di … nomy-slows
Eventually refineries wear out. Corrosion, erosion and thermal fatigue limit the life of any chemical processing equipment. Oil refineries are no exception. And the US hasn't built a new refinery in 40 years. Politicians and cause junky activists have made it abundantly clear that hydrocarbon companies really just shouldn't bother investing in new equipment. And they got the message. But the world's goods distribution system is about 99% dependent on diesel fuel. When supply dereases but demand does not, expect shortages.
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
Offline
For Calliban ...
Mars_B4_Moon has mentioned the glass-half-full/vs/glass-half-empty dilemma that faces NewMars posters.
Your post #754 seems (to me for sure) to be leaning on the half-empty side.
I see this as a terrific opportunity for ambitious, optimistic, forward looking entrepreneurs able to mentally structure a replacement industry for fading stored natural stockpiles.
We actually have occasional bursts of optimism along these lines, in this forum.
What I nave ** not ** seen (so far) is any sign that there is a pathway toward realization of the optimistic scenarios.
As has been shown repeatedly, this is ** not ** a technical problem.
This is almost entirely a social problem.
It takes a stout heart to handle the stress of taking risks.
(th)
Offline
Gasoline prices are still rising after the release of the strategic reserve not at $379 tonight but is it just greed driving this rise since the companies now have plenty of oil for processing? Where the costs higher for that oil release or is there another factor?
The cost of producing oil and gas has not changed much, but the selling price has.
Not really surprised that there is a jiggling sound....
So Oil giants sell thousands of California wells, raising worries about future liability
Which is site cleanup of pollution that they have caused while drilling and pumping of that black gold...
Offline
TH, it is a social / political problem. Oil companies have not replaced ageing refinery infrastructure due to pressure from government and investor groups. That is why we now face a diesel shortage. It is an entirely artifical problem that has arisen because poorly educated people, with no engineering background, decided that they knew better when it comes to energy policy. And they are too arrogant to even consider the possibility of being wrong. Had they done their homework, they may have understood just how difficult it is going to be to replace oil products as the power behind transportation. The fact that some relatively wealthy people have started purchasing BEVs as second cars, has lulled poorly informed political idealists into thinking that the world is close to some kind of EV revolution, where ICEs are no longer needed for transportation of any kind. We are so far from realising that kind of future that talk of zero emission transportation is almost comical at this point.
We are facing diesel shortages, because the people in power don't seem to be aware of this. This is a wilful blindness. Many people believe passionately in a future of EVs powered by solar electricity and unicorn farts. When people want to believe in something strongly, when it becomes their personal Jesus, they tend not to ask difficult questions. They take flambouyant claims at face value and neglect to carry out background research that might detract from what they believe in. People like that make disasterously inappropriate decisions. And this is now happening at a societal level.
Political idealism has so far ruined practical attempts towards achieving more sustainable transportation. This is because idealists are always looking for exotic and revolutionary solutions. Peugeot developed a practical passenger car with hydraulic braking energy recovery back in 2013, that would have achieved a gasoline fuel economy of 50km/litre. That is 117mpg. Very few people were interested. In the eyes of idealists, it was still ICE engine technology and was not revolutionary or exciting enough. Likewise, improving the sustainability of goods transportation, requires investment in new rail infrastructure and inland and coastal waterways. Political idealists aren't interested in that unless you are proposing something wacky like a hydrogen powered train or wind turbine driven ship. Simply optimising existing technologies is just too boring for them. And they come out with ridiculous policy statements like promissing to ban all new ICE sales by 2030. This will mean that real solutions to fossil fuel depletion and climate change will not be developed because they fail to fit in with the ivory tower ideology of the left wing political classes. These are people that are not qualified to make technical decisions at all. And yet they are making those decisions for all of us.
So yes, I am a glass half empty kind of guy. So many problems in this world are the result of half baked political ideology that people believe in because they want to. Technical solutions are almost a waste of time in that environment because decision end up being made on aesthetic grounds that have nothing to do with what works best in the real world.
Last edited by Calliban (2022-10-29 12:56:27)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
Offline
For Calliban re #757
Thank you for taking the time to reply!
I'm pressed for time, so intend to study your post later.
***
In the Teleoperation topic, I am reporting on contact with a company about a possible Virtual Reality product line.
The event is scheduled for Monday at 11:30 local time.
I'll be doing my best to present an ambitious business concept in the most favorable possible light,.
(th)
Offline
Sounds like greed for profit overtook their brain for longevity of what was raking in the green.
https://rentar.com/refining-processes-d … -gasoline/
According to the article diesel is the first stillate and then Gasoline is the next so thats going to runout also due to equipment if that is the case.
Offline
SpaceNut,
Do we know if this problem is purely greed, or has government prevented new refineries from being built and operated, in much the same way that it's made nuclear power all but impossible to pursue?
Offline
American oil refineries shutter amid Biden's hostile fossil fuel policies, adding to pain at the pump: expert
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/oi … t-the-pump
This is in addition to the loss of heavy oil imports from Russia.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 … c42edf4064
US Tight Oil is lighter than the traditional crudes that refineries were built to handle. Russian heavy oil allowed refineries to produce blends that could be processed to yield more diesel. But with Russian imports sanctioned and Venezualan heavy crude also unavailable, refiners are finding it more difficult to source heavy hydrocarbons.
Alberta syncrude could have filled the gap. But transport capacity represents a supply bottleneck. The Keystone extension was intended to plug that gap, but of course it did not go ahead. That is a real shame. Both Canada and the US would benefit from building a self contained oil supply system that doesn't rely on unreliable partners like Russia and Venezuala.
Last edited by Calliban (2022-10-30 09:01:35)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
Offline
Lets, see if we can find that answer to the question as to what is causing the industrial woos?
This industry does not function just on fresh oil but also include synthetics, waste recovery of oil products and plastic in addition to creation of chemical fuels from carbon capture.
Beston oil distillation machine, oil production yield is as high as 90%
Where is the waste going?
distillation plants 30 years of technology
US Regulation Oil and Gas Operations
First Major New U.S. Oil Refinery Since 1977 Targets Bakken Shale Crude
It has been 43 years, in fact, since Marathon Petroleum opened its spanking-new 200,000 barrel of oil per day (bopd) refinery in Garyville, Louisiana in 1977.
Since that time, growing environmental restrictions have made obtaining permits for new refining operations from state and federal government agencies increasingly difficult and costly. The inevitable raft of litigation that follows the issuance of any permits also increases the costs and adds to time delays. Many such projects have tried to get off the ground during those intervening 43 years, but the planners of them have all ended up losing what has become a strategic war of attrition.
Onto this often-tedious battlefield now steps William Prentice, Chairman and CEO of Meridian Energy Group, who I interviewed early in July after his company had received word that the North Dakota Supreme Court had upheld the air quality permit, originally issued in June, 2018, enabling MEG to proceed with the building of a new, 49,500 bopd capacity refinery smack in the middle of the Bakken Shale play in North Dakota. Ok, well, he actually stepped onto the battlefield way back in 2013, a year after MEG was started, and the permitting effort was kicked off five years ago.
Green Distillation Technologies to build US tire recycling plant
Petroleum refining in the United States
Sounds like its a bit of regulation and not in my back yard causes.
Offline
It took more than 5 years after the application of an oil refinery permit, until it was issued, assuming it won't later be cancelled. This is what that minister from Saudi Arabia was talking about. It won't make any difference how much more crude they deliver when there's nowhere to put it and no way to refine it into finished petroleum products (gasoline / diesel / kerosene).
Offline
Refining capacity is not quick or cheap to construct. ESG pressure has prevented any meaningful new investment. So now there are product supply bottlenecks. Saudi crude also tends to be sour, i.e full of sulphur. It is easy to forget that not all crude is created equal. WTI is light and sweet. That makes it easy to refine. Whilst south coast US refineries can handle sour, it adds cost and is not good from an asset management perspective.
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
Offline
California is the extreme in the realm of fuel creation emissions while other make use of a ton of what cracking in the process to add in other chemicals to the mixture as its distilled. So much so that they want to ban sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035 in a state that gets burned every year it seems to the ground. They are definitely overboard....
What percent of crude is used to make deseil and gasoline is a question for what is also causing the low condition of the deseil fuel.
What's in a Barrel of Oil? The 42-Gallon Breakdown
gasoline accounts for 46% of our oil barrel
26% remaining crude oil goes into the production of diesel and other fuels.
9% is used to make jet fuel.
3% crude oil goes into the production of asphalt to pave roads and parking lots.
1% goes into the manufacturing of lubricants: the greases and fluids that help keep our world running smoothly.
that is shy of the 100% at 85% which means there is quite a bit of waste...
Offline
SpaceNut,
The other 15% is probably lighter hydrocarbons, such as Propane and Butane.
Offline
It seems that is quite right after a few words in the google search bar, but I believe these are flared off and not collected as oil wells do but I think some do cool it and compress it into tanks.
https://www.crownoil.co.uk/guides/crude … tillation/
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=6970
Butane and propane and other petroleum gases are formed right at the top of the distillation tower, where it is coolest, a very mild 25°C: the temperature range that forms these gases is between 25°C and 50°C. These gases are the lightest products formed in crude oil distillation and are flammable gases.
Seems we have some other carbon chain products as well.
Offline
SpaceNut,
I'm talking about oil refining, as were you. The gas that gets flared off at the wells is more a function of not having equipment to collect it than anything else, plus environmental regulations preventing its use as an energy source at the wellhead (to drive pumps and whatnot). Sounds pretty dumb, right? You can thank the US EPA for that bit of stupidity.
Offline
Winter gas has started to be delivered to New England gas stations and with it has come a sudden rise to the cost at the pump over the long weeks climb that rests this morning at $3.85 a gallon.
Offline
Post moved to the "Fixing America's broken car industry" thread.
Last edited by kbd512 (2022-11-05 15:53:07)
Offline
it was only a few days since the last rise to $3.89 and tonight it's got to be from the celebration of wins in the elections as another rise was achieved to further harm Americans as it is at $3.99 for no reason.
Offline
SpaceNut,
Regardless of who won, you think celebrating election "wins" made our gas prices increase?
This is what bad top-down energy policy looks like, but Democrats will bankrupt you with a smile on their face if that makes you feel any better. President Biden's energy secretary has been cackling this entire time. I guess she thinks making people poor is great fun.
If the Republicans were doing this, then I wouldn't have nice things to say about them, either. For whatever reason, the Republicans (with all their other faults) seem to understand that cutting off your nose to spite your face is a bad idea. Apart from finding one more way to divide people for political purposes, I have no clue why Democrats thought doing that was a good idea. That nonsense hasn't solved anything, has it? It's definitely made a lot of people much poorer, on the premise that they're "saving the future", all while nobody else is doing anything meaningful about what is a "Global" problem. That's why it's called "Anthropogenic G-L-O-B-A-L Warming". If America starves its people by cutting off their energy supplies, no "great magic" happens, because nobody else apart from a few socialist European countries starving their own people are doing anything at all about the problem.
When President Trump left office, we had gas prices around $2 per gallon, the new Keystone XL pipeline was being built to bring new capacity online, we were not beholden to Russia or the Middle East for our petroleum products so OPEC kept prices low because they had no other choice if they wanted to sell their product to global markets, and America had a full Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Now we have none of those things.
What changed since President Biden took office?
Keystone XL pipeline cancelled. New drilling permits were cancelled. Banks run by leftists continue to try to bankrupt the petroleum industry, as if batteries and photovoltaics are made using other batteries and photovoltaics, rather than more diesel and coal than you can shake a stick at. We were to start using heat pumps, which is a good idea I give President Biden or his administration credit for, but nothing became of that, and we gave away hundreds of billions of dollars to his party's donors for "green energy", but have no new "any energy" (green or otherwise), to show for it.
All these American middle-class and working poor funded / Democrat-created and Democrat-enacted "spending bills" only serve to line the pockets of the already filthy rich, and don't do jack-squat for the poor and middle class workers who built America.
How many welders or cement truck drivers received new jobs building brackets to hold the solar panels for all these new photovoltaic farms we should have to show for our $392 billion dollars spent?
Offline
Since we make fuel based on cost of oil we can look at the amount and cost purchased to make that fuel.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/326 … il-prices/
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta … -crude-oil
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsig … prices-eia
We see that the quantity delivered drop versus rise in cost to purchase is why we are seeing higher cost at the pump from imports.
So did we compensate with US oil increase in amount?
https://www.morningbrew.com/money-scoop … 2-and-2023
That while we are increasing, we must be charging that same barrel cost and more even though it's got no over sea transporting costs. Does that mean the internal costs to move oil to our refineries are about the same? But then again seaport receiving of imports would have that same cost to transport.
Offline
SpaceNut,
Oil companies have attempted to increase domestic production, but that requires capital availability without banks applying penalties under their ESG agenda, more drilling, and build-out of more refining capacity if the goal is to increase finished product production (simply producing more oil does no one any good if it's not also refined into gasoline / kerosene / diesel).
As of right now, more than 70% of our natural gas is going to Europe, and I expect that a good quantity of oil is now being shipped there as well. The US has laws against exporting finished products, though (any gasoline produced in America can only be consumed by America, for example, but crude oil is okay to export).
Since crude oil and natural gas are globally traded commodities, speculators who can actually take delivery of the product set the market price, not the oil companies (apart from oil producing companies selling into that market at the price points the speculators have set). In other words, you're allowed to speculate, but only if you have the tank farm capacity to offload and consume the natural gas or oil. So, thankfully there are limits to the speculation, and after you participate you're obliged to buy the raw products and then resell the finished products to consumers.
US Government / other governments - owns the land and can choose to let oil lease permits / contracts, and prior to the Biden Administration the US Government would let permits for drilling to occur so long as EPA-approved drilling practices were followed
Oilfield Services Company (Schlumberger / Halliburton / Baker-Hughes / etc) - Contracts with Oil Producer (Exxon-Mobil / BP / Chevron / etc) to drill for the oil and gas
Oil Speculators (Wall Street commodities traders) - Sets oil prices, but must have a contract with a company that can actually take delivery of the product (a plethora of companies across the planet that own tank farms to store the oil and gas)
Oil Producer (Exxon-Mobil / BP / Chevron / etc) - Produces the oil and sells into the commodities markets, also involved in refining
Oil Consumers - Service Stations / Business / Governments / General Public (via service stations, most of the time)
Everyone has a lane that they're supposed to stay in, and for the most part they do.
Offline
For SpaceNut re #773
Since we make fuel based on cost of oil we can look at the amount and cost purchased to make that fuel.
Your level head helps to keep the forum on track. We have members who have argued for manufacture of hydrocarbon fuels using nuclear power (on one hand) or solar power on the other.
You have quite sensibly ignored both sets of ideas because they would require cooperation of human beings to achieve, and since cooperation is on the wane in the present times, your sensible forecast of same-old same-old fits the times.
Recently I noticed a dust-up between Senator Manchin (representing a coal producing state) and President Biden, trying to encourage moving away from coal in order to save our descendants from a Mars-like (or Venus-like) hell-on-Earth.
It occurred to me that there is a need for the common utility paper based products we take for granted in the US. I saw (caught a glimpse of) an article complaining about US consumer consumption of paper towels and toilet paper, and various other similar products that have (in the past) been made from wood.
But coal is solidified vegetable matter.
Tissue paper and all other kinds of paper products could be made directly from coal, instead of consuming trees that are needed to collect carbon from the atmosphere.
Energy is required, and fortunately we (humans) ** have ** the ability to make prodigious amounts of energy.
However, changing the future so that coal miners have a useful product, and Senator Manchin looks like a hero, would require cooperation on a grand scale.
(th)
Offline