Martian Exports - What can martians sell?

Ian Flint · 2003-09-24 11:47:47

Hello all. I'm going to college in Colorado and I'm a member of the Mars Society. I just started writing one of the millions of stories (about mars) floating around in my head. But don't worry. I'm not just here to get information out of you for my book. I like the threads I've read so far, so I think I'll stick around.

For my first post I just wanted to get a list of all possible exports available to future martians. Let's not limit ourselves to physical resources. I want to translate any dollar amounts into import mass. I suppose we can assume the following conservative estimates:

Cost to LEO (Proton): $4,000 per kg,
Percent of mass in LEO that reaches Mars (the payload): 30%

I'll start with an easy one (with absolutely no guarantee of success):

Books -- A book written by a martian settler may have the appeal to become a bestseller back on Earth. Let's say a million copies are sold and the writer gets one dollar a piece. With a million dollars that settler can buy 75 kg of imports. Not a lot, but it's a start.

What else is out there?

Bill White · 2003-09-24 14:20:26

Millions of dollars are irrelevant. Too little to even bother counting. Billions of dollars are the relevant measure.

Anyway, Zubrin claims that in terms of rocket propulsion Mars is "closer" to Earth's moon and even Earth's LEO than the surface of the Earth. Something about the required delta V.

If true, and if a Mars settlement could manufacture rocket fuel, it might well cost less to transport freeze dried tilapia (grown in a Marsian vat) or Marsian vegetables (grown hydroponically) to a lunar settlement than sending food from Earth. Go figure that!

Raw materials (especially volatiles) mined from Phobos or Deimos could be shipped to LEO to help build space hotels in LEO. Wacky? But apparently true.

Magnesium burns nicely and Mars has lots of magnesium which could be used to build solid fuel rockets. Build Marsian solid fuel boosters and ship them to LEO to avoid lifting boosters from Earth. Magnesium/iron alloy construction materials for building space stations? Fabricated on Mars and shipped to LEO.

Allegedly, using supercritical CO2 will allow magnesium to be readily mined from Marsian regoloth since magensium dissolves quite nicely in (sc)CO2.

Palomar · 2003-09-24 14:36:57

*Selling tiny heavy-duty plastic vials of Marsian sand to the folks back home.

"Be The First On Your Block To Own a Vial of 100% Genuine MARSIAN SAND!!"

It could happen.

--Cindy

Byron · 2003-09-24 15:56:47

*Selling tiny heavy-duty plastic vials of Marsian sand to the folks back home.
"Be The First On Your Block To Own a Vial of 100% Genuine MARSIAN SAND!!"
It could happen.
--Cindy

Seriously, this could be a huge income-producer for the early Martian settlers...the cost of production would be nil, the cost of shipping it back low, while you could probably sell it for hundreds of dollars a vial.

Also, if things like diamonds and other rare gems were found in plentiful supply on Mars, I imagine that would be a profitable export, provided you didn't have to expend much effort to mine and/or process them in situ. But it would probably be the "intangibles" such as media rights and stories of the early settlers in book/TV/movie form that would provide them with most of their "export" income, at least in the early going.

B

alokmohan · 2003-09-25 04:16:23

martian sands will have good market.

TJohn · 2003-09-25 07:01:54

I wonder how much martian sand would go for? I would be happy with a small test tube size container. You have someone collect a database of people who have submitted and pre-paid for the sample of Mars. On the next lander to Mars, have a robotic rover collect a number of vials of sand (Of course it would be better if a human was doing this). THe samples are placed in a container/capsule built to withstand a splashdown in the ocean. The container is launched from Mars to Earth. Once it's collected from the ocean, the organization that has the list of personnel can contact you to either personally pick up your sample or have it mailed to you. The one problem that I see with this is how much to charge for the sample. Can someone point me in the right direction to find out?

Ian Flint · 2003-09-25 10:14:27

I think a simple auction would set the price for the first samples.

To be one of the first owners of martian sand may carry a lot of prestige.

Let's say you get a sample of 500 grams of martian sand and split it up into 100 vials of 5 grams each. I can envision 100 spoiled rich heirs (that have to have the first of everything) buying each vial for 1 million dollars. They would have something cool to show their friends and the sample return would have $100 million.

Ian Flint · 2003-09-25 10:48:31

OK. The stuff we have discussed so far is either intangible and uncertain (books,movies) or only useful for a future uncertain market (moon or LEO resuply). And selling sand might pay for a sample return or two but that's about it.

Deuterium is an actual resource that is known to exist on Mars and currently has a market on Earth. It is used in CANDU nuclear reactors. The CANDUs use heavy water (Deuterium and Oxygen) to moderate their reactors.

Deuterium costs $10 million per tonne (1996 prices). Shipping 100 tonnes of it back to earth would give the colonists a billion dollars.

Deuterium is five times more abundant in martian water than earth water. So if all the processing and shipping of martian deuterium were less than five time the cost of doing it on earth, it would actually be a profitable venture. Personally, I don't think it would be that efficient, but it would help offset the costs of colonizing mars to a great extent.

Does anyone know the current market demand for deuterium?

RobS · 2003-09-25 22:36:56

If you want to export pieces of Mars, I'd export fossils (if there are any there, of course). Martian sand could be faked, but a fossil couldn't be, so it would be easier to authenticate.

I doubt Mars has very many diamonds; they form under great heat and pressure deep underground, and with Mars's lower gravity, they'd have to form even deeper inside the planet. Then they are carried to the surface volcanically, and Mars has less volcanism than earth. Besides, synthetic diamonds may soon become high in quality and cheap.

Gold would be a better export item. It's worth about 10 million per tonne on Earth. If Mars has as much gold as Earth, and if you start by exploiting only the very richest deposits, you can keep production costs down enough to cover the transportation costs.

Mars will also be covered with meteorites, so everything you can find in the asteroid belt will be scattered all over the surface. Meteoritic iron is rich in platinum and iridium, so possibly those materials could be exported as well.

-- RobS

Palomar · 2003-09-26 06:19:21

*Actually, I was being "tongue-in-cheek" regarding packing vials of Marsian sand for sale on Earth.

I really, REALLY think the early Marsian settlers should maybe "play it cool" and not get all gung-ho about selling this and that to Earthlings...because their descendants might never, ever forgive them for it.

I think Josh said that it will be up to the ::colonists:: (as differentiated from "mere" settlers) to decide what they want to do with THEIR planet. And hopefully they won't repeat mistakes of the past here on Earth!

--Cindy

RobertDyck · 2003-09-26 06:39:56

Interesting ideas, keep them coming. Today's gold price is $385 per troy ounce on the spot market; that makes it $12,378,037 per tonne. Price can fluctuate 10% in a single day so call it $12 million per tonne. Deuterium is also used in lamps; deuterium lamps emit mostly UV light. Deuterium oxide (heavy water), deuterium iodide, deuterium chloride, and deuterium bromide are also used for Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. One vendor who sells NMR supplies will sell 99.96% deuterium oxide for $600 for 1kg, the price per unit is higher for a smaller quantity. 20% of the mass of deuterium oxide is deuterium, so that makes deuterium worth $3 million per tonne. ($US prices) You work out whether pure deuterium is worth more or less than deuterium oxide (oxidation would require burning it), and any discount for bulk sales.

Keep up the good work guys. Anything worth millions of dollars per tonne is worth considering as an export.

Palomar · 2003-09-26 07:14:32

*I hope to god the United Nations has measures in place to prevent a "slash and burn" attitude towards Mars, and that plundering/looting the planet will be prevented.

Hopefully the colonists will be wise and careful in whatever exporting they engage in, and especially how they go about it...and to what extent.

I want Mars to remain as intact and pristine as possible. But that's just one Earthling's opinion (doesn't count for much).

--Cindy

sethmckiness · 2003-09-26 08:39:05

If we are looking for a Martian Export, it must be less expensive then we can get here. Currently I don't see anything being economically viable for export. In the future... Of course, but now... no way..

Tyr · 2003-09-26 08:39:16

By the time we colonize Mars we might not have to worry so much about exports. Advances in AI, robotics and nanotech might make us all so rich we can afford anything.

RobertDyck · 2003-09-26 09:09:58

By the time we colonize Mars we might not have to worry so much about exports. Advances in AI, robotics and nanotech might make us all so rich we can afford anything.

In the 1970's the claim was that people would work a 3-day work week. Automation would take over so much work we wouldn't have to work more than that. Now look at us, we work as much as ever. The expectations of the disposable society have created such costs to raise a family that most families require both parents to work full time. That means more work, not less. No matter what the developments, you will always work with limited resources. Return on investment will always be a concern. People could decide to emigrate to Mars from their own savings, but the companies that facilitate colonization (such as interplanetary transportation) will have to operate at a profit. If you want private industry to pay for initial Mars exploration and initiating Mars colonization, they will have to make a profit from that. The guys who have billions of dollars got that money somehow, not by squandering it. So what is the export that will repay Earth investors with a profit?

Mars is a planet. It is 1/2 the diameter of Earth, resulting in 1/4 the surface area, but Earth is 3/4 covered in water so Mars has as much dry land area as Earth. We can afford a few mines.

Palomar · 2003-09-26 09:18:24

By the time we colonize Mars we might not have to worry so much about exports. Advances in AI, robotics and nanotech might make us all so rich we can afford anything.
In the 1970's the claim was that people would work a 3-day work week. Automation would take over so much work we wouldn't have to work more than that. Now look at us, we work as much as ever. The expectations of the disposable society have created such costs to raise a family that most families require both parents to work full time. That means more work, not less.

*Could some of this dilemma be due to the fact that most people want the brand new carS, the brand new house, the brand new top-quality appliances, the brand new Ethan Allen furniture, the brand new swimming pool, the brand new everything NOW -- on their honeymoon night -- maxing out credit cards and spending like drunk sailors instead of waiting a few years down the road, first of all to see if the marriage will even work out (considering more than 1/2 of all marriages in the U.S. end up in divorce court), instead of ::gradually:: accumulating things like mom and dad did?

I think so.

Also consider that many people are atrocious shoppers. They'd rather buy a box of "instant rice" which goes for 45 cents per ounce than to pour a cupful of uncooked rice, which goes for 3 cents per ounce, into boiling water in a pan and cook it themselves.

All those pennies sure add up.

A lot of financial problems could be avoided if people would THINK before they ACT. But try to get that message through the heads of the "You Deserve It" Generation.

--Cindy

Byron · 2003-09-26 09:36:25

A lot of financial problems could be avoided if people would THINK before they ACT. But try to get that message through the heads of the "You Deserve It" Generation.
--Cindy

One way to solve this problem is to make it much, much more difficult to borrow money. In all economic sense, we should only borrow money to buy a house and *maybe* a car, provided it is paid off in 3 years or less. What I hate are all these credit card companies that make it way too easy to get into debt, and then people's living standards are permanantly reduced becuase they can't pay off their crushing debt loads.

The *smart* thing for Martian settlers to do would be to immediately pass a law forbidding debt of any kind...you want it, you have to pay for it upfront. Housing should be a "standard issue" that everyone gets for being a citizen, to be paid for out of general revenue and / or taxes...everything else that people want, you should have to save in advance before buying it.

If settling Mars means being in debt to Earth, like most 3rd countries are today, then I firmly oppose any sort of Martian colonization...as it simply would not work over the long term...

B

Byron · 2003-09-26 09:47:14

Another important idea that I would urge future settlers to follow is to make all corporations publicly-owned..in that everyone gets an equal share of ownership, voting rights and profits.

People should be allowed to have their own private enterprises (such as a store or a cafe) with one iron-clad caveat - they can't employ others to help them make a profit...if they do, it automatically becomes a corporation, which would then revert to public ownership (but it would also have access to the overall resources of the community as the public owners see fit.) This way, Mars wouldn't fall into the trap most people here on Earth have suffered for ages--working our butts off for substandard wages just so a few owners can make a killer profit. Again, if this the only economic paradigm that would work on Mars, then I say let's just leave that planet alone..lol...

B

Palomar · 2003-09-26 10:01:59

One way to solve this problem is to make it much, much more difficult to borrow money...What I hate are all these credit card companies that make it way too easy to get into debt, and then people's living standards are permanantly reduced becuase they can't pay off their crushing debt loads.

*Well, I'm pretty big on ::personal responsibility::

People know when they get a credit card that they will have to pay back every penny of it, with interest on top of it (usually LOTS of interest).

The only fault I find with the credit card companies are the hidden charges they pummel people with. Which is a good reason to steer clear of plastic as much as possible.

This reminds me of a former friend in the early 1990s, who would go grocery shopping with me. She "had" to have her shopping cart filled with the absolute best brand names and, when trying a new product for the first time, would buy a stack of them (instead of buying just 1, to see if she'd even like the product), etc. etc. Her grocery bill was always at least 3 times the amount as mine...for about the same number of items.

And at the end of each pay period she was crying "poverty," and never could get it through her head that she made x-amount of dollars per pay period, but overspent repeatedly. I tried giving her spending tips, so did her mother and sister...but nope, she was like a kid in a candy store 24/7/365.

Some folks just have a hard time learning, I guess.

--Cindy

RobertDyck · 2003-09-26 10:24:38

If settling Mars means being in debt to Earth, like most 3rd countries are today, then I firmly oppose any sort of Martian colonization...as it simply would not work over the long term...

One simple solution, find a valuable export. Then corporations would invest in a facility on Mars to harvest that commodity and export it to Earth. The product would pay for the cost of developing the facility, transportation to Earth, and profit for the Earth investors. That company would be an employer of Mars settlers, and start the process of colonization.

Another model is homesteading. A transportation company could develop interplanetary transportation to Mars, and charge colonists for the ride. It would be operated as a commercial, for profit company; a spaceline. Colonists would have to pay upfront hundreds of thousands of dollars for their trip. Once there they can build a home and live off the land; no debt. The transportation company may have facilities on Mars to maintain its spacecraft and refuel, creating an employer for those who don't want to build a greenhouse subsistence farm. The transportation firm may also bring to Mars equipment to supply the homesteads, and sell it in a store. Manufacturing of habitats, greenhouse enclosures, pressure lock pumps, and life support equipment will be initial industries on Mars. Mining local resources to supply these industries will be alternate jobs for colonists. Manufacturing could be by small business started by colonists, or at least initially by the transportation company itself. If the transportation company branches out into manufacturing homes and life support equipment from local resources, what you have is a company town. I expect fuel for the interplanetary spacecraft would be mined from a Martian moon, but fuel for the surface-to-orbit shuttles would be made on Mars. Fuel manufacture would have to be established before the first colonists arrived, so either the one company or a consortium of companies would establish that right away.

Byron · 2003-09-26 10:25:09

*Well, I'm pretty big on ::personal responsibility::

Unfortunately, that is a rare exception in 2003 America. People may "know" that they have to pay back each and every penny that's borrowed, but then again, just look at all the people that declare bankrupcy each year, which means we all have to pay for people's irresponsible spending habits ???

I think that credit card companies need to be strictly regulated in order to save this country from a massive wave of bankrupcies, which might toss us into a depression one of these days...

B

Palomar · 2003-09-26 10:50:52

*Well, I'm pretty big on ::personal responsibility::
Unfortunately, that is a rare exception in 2003 America. People may "know" that they have to pay back each and every penny that's borrowed, but then again, just look at all the people that declare bankrupcy each year, which means we all have to pay for people's irresponsible spending habits ???
I think that credit card companies need to be strictly regulated in order to save this country from a massive wave of bankrupcies, which might toss us into a depression one of these days...
B

*Hi again Byron.

I just re-read your two other posts previous to this.

I think you have some VERY GOOD ideas, which future colonists should look into.

I especially like your business and housing ideas, and "save and pay upfront" method.

I'm going to nominate you as President of Mars.

--Cindy

P.S.: We're already in a depression, unfortunately.

RobS · 2003-09-26 12:45:54

There are lots of things on Earth worth a few million per tonne, but the problem is there's a good reason for the high cost, and those reasons will apply in Mars as well. The trick will be to find something that can be made on Mars cheaply enough to cover transportation costs and STILL be competitive on Earth. Any technological advance that makes it cheaper on Mars (i.e., robotic mining) will be applied to Earth soon enough as well, and won't help much.

It is difficult to calculate Mars export costs, but we know they should be cheaper than hauling things from the Earth's surface to low earth orbit. You only need 8,500 mph to go into Mars orbit from the surface; half the velocity you need from the Earth's surface . A reusable single-stage to orbit vehicle would be much easier to build for Mars than for Earth, even if it has to be flown back to Earth for refurbishment every ten flights or so. Think how much simpler heat shields will be, for example. From low Mars orbit, a flight to Earth requires a delta-vee of only about 5,000 mph more, easy to do, especially if you can make fuel on Phobos and Deimos and aerobrake it down to a low Mars orbit.

So it's probably safe to assume that cargo flight costs from Mars to low Earth orbit can be maybe a fifth to a tenth the cost of flights from Earth to low Earth orbit, (passengers need many months of life support systems, which is quite expensive).

Gold strikes me as the best bet, so far, IF RICH DEPOSITS ARE FOUND AND ONLY RICH DEPOSITS ARE EXPLOITED. Typical gold mines on Earth are exploiting deposits containing a few hundred parts per million of gold, and they can get it out of the ground for less than $300 per ounce. But the initial strike is usually of very rich veins that have much more gold per tonne than that. The largest nugget ever found was in Australia and I think it weighed 70 pounds! If very good remote sensing technology, combined with ground truth (geologists in the field) are used well, if Mars has rich gold deposits, they should be findable. If gold can be flown back to the Earth for one million bucks per tonne (a fifth to a tenth of the cost of launching stuff into low Earth orbit right now) that leaves about ten million per tonne of mining costs in order to cover your expenses and/or make a profit. If you are willing to cover the cost of flying the miners to Mars by other funds (NASA) then you can keep them there and cover some of their costs by mining while letting them do science as well.

There is one problem with this approach, though: many people will be exceedingly uncomfortable mixing science and mining. Geologists won't like doing both, the government will be uncomfortable about NASA (or some other government agency) doing both, and the public will be uneasy about the motivations implied by doing both. So that will have to be considered. Of course, if "Bill Gates" funded a private mission to Mars, mixing the two would be easier to do.

-- RobS

P.S.: I should add that mining equipment will have to be developed to function on Mars. The rock will be sixty below zero; very cold. On earth, gold nuggets are separated from rock centrifugally in water (i.e., swishing the mix around in a pan, "panning" for gold). On Mars one would probably have to use liquid CO2 instead of water. Native deposits are usually dissolved from the rock using cynide componds, which would require making huge amounts of cynide (which has nitrogen in it) and taking huge amounts of rock, heating up, running it through the cynide bath, etc. Terrestrial technology could not just be exported; it would have to be reengineering in major ways.

Bill White · 2003-09-26 13:54:16

So it's probably safe to assume that cargo flight costs from Mars to low Earth orbit can be maybe a fifth to a tenth the cost of flights from Earth to low Earth orbit, (passengers need many months of life support systems, which is quite expensive).

If rocket engines can be fabricated on Mars (magnesium based solid fuel boosters, for example) I believe we can argue that the "cost" of export from Mars to LEO falls below the 10% or 20% figure cited by RobS.

The fabrication of the boosters on Mars simply becomes part of Mars industry export business. Suppose Earth to LEO costs $4000 per kg. If MarCorp offers to delivery ANY Mars material to LEO for $3999 per kg they have the inside track on the contract.

IMHO - there is NOTHING on Mars that -can- be economically exported to the surface of the Earth. And there is NOTHING on Mars than -cannot- be exported economically to LEO. (Delivery to the Moon only amplifies this result.)

Indeed, if a large Marsian aquifer were tapped, sending water from Mars to LEO would be "cheaper" than sending water from the Pacific Ocean to LEO especially if Mars-made rocket boosters were used. Mars may well feed the giant space tourism hotels some dream of building.

Byron · 2003-09-26 14:11:58

IMHO - there is NOTHING on Mars that -can- be economically exported to the surface of the Earth. And there is NOTHING on Mars than -cannot- be exported economically to LEO. (Delivery to the Moon only amplifies this result.)
Indeed, if a large Marsian aquifer were tapped, sending water from Mars to LEO would be "cheaper" than sending water from the Pacific Ocean to LEO especially if Mars-made rocket boosters were used. Mars may well feed the giant space tourism hotels some dream of building.

Wouldn't this equation be different if a high-capacity space elevator was in place? How about a mass-driver on one of the Martian volcanoes?

B

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