You are not logged in.
World GDP is something like $84,000 billion per annum. Space X's Mars Mission might be something like $20 billion over more than a decade. $20 billion represents something like 0.02% of just one year's World GDP. Or 0.002% over ten years.
It's nothing essentially.
Musk is well on the way to becoming the world's first trillionaire thanks to his amazing ingenuity and business acumen. He will have no problem funding the Mars Mission. The limit here is not funds but people - people with the right knowledge and technical skills plus the right attitude - and then the right set up - getting everything square with the authorities and NASA.
My own estimate for the first human footprints on Mars would be: 2100. No one alive here now will live to see it.
This is roughly how long I think it will take to recover from an imminent great depression stemming from fossil fuel depletion and declining working age population. The question of when humans can first reach Mars, is basically a question of how long it will take to rebuild the energetic basis of our economy. I think it will take many decades to replace the chemical energy base with a nuclear energy base. It will take many decades to reverse demographic decline. So I think 2100 is probably about right. The other answer that I dread to give would be never at all. I would like to think that we can overcome the disaster that is about to hit us, even if we have to rebuild on a resource base that is depleted. I just don't think anyone here will be alive when we finally regain Space faring capabilities. I would be happy to be wrong.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
Offline
China's missions to the moon and Mars are starting to deliver exciting science results
https://www.space.com/china-moon-mars-mission-science
Musk is well on the way to becoming the world's first trillionaire thanks to his amazing ingenuity and business acumen.
Ha! his welath is overestimated while the crimes inside those 28 pages were hidden,
don't get me wrong. I like Musk, I think Elon is far better than those old money dinosaurs
the old money bloodlines are already Trillionaires, they outspend him, one of those islamic mohammedan Princes was able to outspend him buying a chunk twitter
None of their welath is reported in any official news media magazine, they are all part of the hush hush club....but One day you might come to understand how much land, political power and wealth those older dinosaur elite truly own.
Offline
After six months in space, three Chinese astronauts back on Earth
Offline
Humanity will go to Mars 'in this decade,' SpaceX president predicts
Offline
China plans to launch trial for a solar power plant space station in 2028 that will beam energy back down to Earth
Offline
Inside China’s plan to go to the Moon and Mars as work continues on private Chinese space station
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/18860156/ … e-station/
China's Mars Rover Goes Dormant in Intense Dust Storm
https://www.cnet.com/science/space/chin … ust-storm/
'Two views of the Chinese electrical/engineering ground mockup of the Tiangong Space Complex. First image shows more of the overall structure. Wentian on the left, Tianhe-1 center with Mengtian far right. First image also has a Tianzhou cargo craft at the aft docking port.'
https://twitter.com/ShuttleAlmanac/stat … 2976559105
GM and Lockheed are expanding their moon buggy into a whole lunar lineup
https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/gm-and- … -1.5942992
NASA selects new instruments to study moon
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2022/0 … 654270756/
Russia-Ukraine war: How Elon Musk's StarLink thwarted Vladimir Putin's information war
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia … 7EOCYFK7A/
ESA does not anticipate Russian withdrawal from ISS
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/es … 022-05-25/
The Ukraine War is Accelerating the New Space Race
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/05/13 … pace-race/
Every spacecraft on Mars - comparison Vid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ER6EO4B7V68
Offline
Tianwen is currently in orbit around Mars with a rover on the surface, they will now test Tianwen 1 to gain experience for Tianwen 3
So now Do we have a timetable for their MSR, Tianwen-3 China Aims to Get Mars Rock Samples Returned to Earth? will launch a stationary lander with sampling devices and an ascent stage that will carry the soil samples into Mars orbit.
https://spacenews.com/china-aims-to-bri … a-mission/
http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/n6758823/n675883 … ntent.html
http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/07/23/751604.html
http://zhuanti.spacechina.com/n1411849/ … ntent.html
https://www.edu.cn/rd/zi_xun/201608/t20 … 2100.shtml
if you want to search news articles in a search engine the Chinese for Mars you combine the characters 'Fire' and 'Planet' 火星
in simple Chinese Tianwen is wrote 天问 or in traditional Chinese hanzi characters 天問 the literal translation for the name of the Mars Orbiter is ' Heavenly Questions'
Tianwen-1 will test aerobraking at Mars to lower orbit to gain some experience for this ahead of the future Tianwen-3 mission
vid
https://www.koushare.com/lives/room/812404
2nd Report Sun Zezhou, chief designer of "Tianwen No.1" Mars Exploration & Sample Return mission.
报告二：“天问一号”总设计师孙泽洲
火星探测及采样返回
Another link with quote
https://www.go-taikonauts.com/en/chines … on-the-way
China’s Mars mission to lead the world in retrieving Martian rocks by 2031, says program veteran
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science … tian-rocks
'Tianwen 3, the mission designed to retrieve samples from Mars'
Seem to be different locations chosen from what NASA and ESA desires, China collecting different types of sample?
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-06-27 19:07:10)
Offline
China's next moon missions get the green light
Offline
China's Tianwen 4 to target Jupiter and Uranus with two spacecraft on one rocket
https://interestingengineering.com/inno … one-rocket
There were previous reports of a Nuke Powered Neptune Mission or 'Interstellar Heliosphere Probe'
https://www.planetary.org/articles/chin … ne-orbiter
The name Gan De shows up as a 'spacecraft' while ZhengHe , also known as Tianwen-2 might be a planned Chinese asteroid sample-return and comet exploration mission
Gan De: Science Objectives and Mission Scenarios For China’s Mission to the Jupiter System
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org … 20179.html
The new generation human rated launch vehicle #CZ5DY will be reusable too
1st stage: 7 YF-100K
2nd stage: 2 YF-100M
3rd stage: 3 YF-75E
LTO: 27 ton
LEO: 70 ton
https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/statu … 6101915648
Map
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China … n_999.html
DeepSpace
https://defenceaviationpost.com/capable … -of-range/
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-09-23 17:55:56)
Offline
A lot of people do not like to admit but the current goal has mostly come from George Bush junior, it was a vision not too unlike his father's vision annoucned to the public to give NASA new goals after the loss of Shuttle. The 43rd president Bush set a very specific goal concerning the Moon and using it as a stepping stone to Mars. Both Obama and Trump revised the 'Vision' and modified it to make it their own policy, there is now the 'Gateway' station. Back in the 1980s it was thought the Russians and USSR might be around forever, even after the break up people considered the 'Buran'. With the invasion of Ukraine it seems Putin's Russia is now isolated or sanction by most of the West. Since the Bush vision the Private Sector has come along greatly and we have seen a rise of China, Musk has made crazy claims in the past but has said he will be moving along the road map towards humans being able to get to Mars on a one way ticket at a cost of $500,000 per person. China has now replaced the old Russian science feats while the Russian program has stagnated, there are other nations also growing such as India and South Korea.
Elon Musk says it's 'highly likely' man will go to Mars within 10 years because he's 'congenitally optimistic'
https://twitter.com/TheMarsSociety/stat … 9419846657
Chinese scientists have identified 222 hot subdwarf stars using DR8 spectra of China's leading telescope Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST), incl. a system of the highest eccentricity among known wide sdB binaries, which is beyond model predictions
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1624287112857268224
'Report meeting of crewed moon mission development was held in CASC No.6 institute on Feb 3. At the meeting, the development of the new generation crewed spacecraft propulsion subsystem and crewed lunar lander propulsion subsystem were reported.'
https://twitter.com/CNSAWatcher/status/ … 5650067456
Chinese scientists have identified 222 hot subdwarf stars using DR8 spectra of China's leading telescope Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST), incl. a system of the highest eccentricity among known wide sdB binaries, which is beyond model predictions
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1624287112857268224
'An article marking the second anniversary of Tianwen-1 entering orbit around Mars. And yet, no mention of the status or fate of the mission's Zhurong rover, which was expected to come out of hibernation in Utopia Planitia in December.'
https://twitter.com/AJ_FI/status/1624399819232972800
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-02-12 08:31:07)
Offline
Well I guess this is what happens when you divide everyone, turn people on each other, left vs right and almost support full on 'Race Wars' whenever a stupid Cop makes a deliberate or dumb mistake?
but don't worry it will be all fixed as USA goes USSR and is too busy banning books and chasing down offensive memes to worry about science.
'China leading US in technology race in all but a few fields, thinktank finds'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ … tank-finds
The United States and other western countries are losing the race with China to develop advanced technologies and retain talent, with Beijing potentially establishing a monopoly in some areas, a new report has said.
Offline
Looks like their Rover might have been killed by 'Dust'
they continue to release data and pics to the public
LIBS laser spectroscopy instrument making holes in Martian rock
https://twitter.com/segeryu/status/1657619465717317633
Zhang Rongqiao, Chief Designer for China’s Mars Exploration Program said starting from May, the data from the Tianwen1 mission has been released to the world on a monthly basis following the domestic distribution methods. The same as the data provided to Chinese scientists.
https://twitter.com/wulei2020/status/16 … 5511713792
Offline
China plans to land astronauts on moon before 2030,
https://phys.org/news/2023-05-china-ast … space.html
Plans for Chinese to land astronauts on moon before 2030, 'another step in what looks like a new space race'
https://apnews.com/article/china-space- … d7e066e2b4
NASA, China Rovers Find Signs Of Soaked Sand Dunes, Rushing Rivers On Mars
https://www.ndtv.com/science/nasas-pers … rs-4072767
Offline
Chief designer details how future lunar landing works
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chie … s_999.html
To achieve a moon landing, the required carrying capacity, equivalent delivery capacity to low-Earth orbit, will be around 130 to 140 tonnes, 30 to 40 percent larger than needed to launch the whole Chinese space station combination (with six components).
Could NASA and SpaceX mount a joint mission to Mars?
Offline
China's great race to build a SpaceX competitor
Offline
China Outlines Permanently-shadowed Crater Exploration, Lunar Resource Utilization Plans
https://www.leonarddavid.com/china-outl … ion-plans/
China’s Moon exploration plans call for deep diving into permanently shadowed areas of the lunar south pole. The country’s Chang’e-7 mission is slated to take place around 2026 and utilize a mini-flying probe to investigate the permanently-shadowed bottom of an impact crater.
Offline
"NASA can save the Mars Sample Return mission by going commercial"
https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/ … ommercial/
Schiaparelli Crater on Mars. Captured by MoRIC onboard Tianwen-1 orbiter
https://twitter.com/shujianyang/status/ … 8088960000
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-08-09 09:12:55)
Offline
Exciting progress at Hainan's commercial spaceport! On August 13th, the final truss structure for Launch Pad No.1's rotation platform was lifted, marking a new phase in its development. First launch from this pad is slated for June 2024.
https://twitter.com/CNSAWatcher/status/ … 0422598656
Sacra Sulci on Mars (18°N, 74.53°W).
https://twitter.com/shujianyang/status/ … 2335285248
'That’s definitely close…'
Offline
Strategic implications of China winning the space rescue race (part 1)
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4767/1
Several times in its history, the United States has proven unprepared for personnel recovery due to outdated policy that failed to anticipate novel personnel recovery challenges. Trend studies demonstrate the United States adjusts its personnel recovery policies after a major crisis or event occurs. The US government must break this reactive personnel recovery policy and investment cycle or America is at risk of losing its leadership role to China in cislunar space. Only a proactive national approach will ensure the United States remains the leader in space
quote
China rescue of US astronauts
China has demonstrated a willingness to manipulate legal arguments to advance their national agenda through tactical actions that carry strategic impacts. While the space treaty established the obligation to aid an astronaut in distress, China’s terrestrial actions indicate they don’t hesitate to exploit any advantage, in spite of negative worldview perceptions. The environment is potentially more hazardous to the astronaut than any adversary in space. “Render aid” may seem altruistic, but it fails to address the vulnerability of neighboring nations rescuing US astronauts without coordination. There is an inherent risk when adversaries share space; it is not uncommon for nations to conduct non-attributable, nefarious activities that create a survival situation for their adversaries and competitors. These conditions provide an opportunity to “render aid” and rescue astronauts in distress, which ironically shares the same logistic properties as foreign governmental detention. While this may seem outlandish, it has occurred on Earth.
The PRC can set long-term timelines and shows a remarkable ability to meet its announced deadlines. In sharp contrast, the United States suffers from frequent delays and missed deadlines for slow-to-act programs and multiple reversals
Offline
Could India ISRO beat Space-X to colonize Mars?...maybe not
however after the end of the ColdWar as a collective people on the planet 'mankind' we have fired a lot of multi-million dollar 'Space Junk' at the Moon only to see expensive crashes.
and What China might be writing
'Where can I find access to information provided by CNSA and Chinese scientists and reputable science authors?'
https://space.stackexchange.com/questio … ientists-a
Some Chinese sites can be difficult to access, they have their own culture like South Korea and Japan has its own online web community.
There might be a filter from your web net company browser supplier or also a 'Great Firewall' from China itself
some online personality, if you use a translation program on the Chinese characters the profiles can read
'Explore the pinnacle of humanity's future science and be a person who looks up to the stars.'
https://new.qq.com/omn/author/6139469
a year ago Japanese startup ispace inc failed
the JAXA SLIM somewhat successful but flips over landing upside down
Lunar Flashlight a Cubecat failure, LunaH-Map another Cubesat failure, Beresheet an Israeli tech demonstration mission another failure.
Peregrine Mission One a failure, another Private US mission mixed success, EagleCam failed so not totally successful and not a total failure
Intuitive Machines' lunar lander tripped and fell
https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/26/ … _sideways/
Luna-25 a post-USSR vision for Russians on the Moon, the new Russian Federation emerged from 1991 to 1992 to 1993 then Vladimir Putin a man world media often describe as a 'Dictator' as the Prime Minister in 1999 the mission backed by the Russian state Roscosmos Lander a Total Failure, the Russians can no longer achieve their past success.
South Korea international cooperation and success with Danuri launching on Space-X Falcon-9 (an orbiter not lander)
Hindu Nationalism types can also celebrate with India now seeing some Rover Success
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-04-21 04:07:58)
Offline
China confirms progress ...difficult to read exactly what time but for maybe for a 2030 Mars return mission, NASA delays theirs
The Current Mars Sample Return Mission isn’t Going to Work. NASA is Going Back to the Drawing Board
https://www.universetoday.com/166658/th … ing-board/
A Mars return mission would be so complex, not easy for China, not easy for NASA/JPL nor Space-X that there's a high likelihood of failure. So it's good science that humankind is sending two. If the Chinese one doesn't work then the American one can be back up for Mars science. If they both succeed its great news and increases the chances of finding evidence of simple microbial life on Mars, either from the past or perhaps still living. Did life go from Mars ot Earth or ancient Earth life blasted off by an impact and go to Mars, even after a discover we may still wonder will that turn out to be life seeded from Earth? It seems very likely Earth bacteria must made it to Mars in the past, perhaps cross planet seeding via asteroid ejecta from Earth.
My own estimate for the first human footprints on Mars would be: 2100. No one alive here now will live to see it.
a very bleak and dark outlook
The question of when humans can first reach Mars, is basically a question of how long it will take to rebuild the energetic basis of our economy. I think it will take many decades to replace the chemical energy base with a nuclear energy base.
sometimes the world can be miserable and it only takes a few free thinkers, optimists and scientists and one or two good political leaders to move it all forward again
Has anyone else considered the possibility that the Chinese are not seriously interested in establishing a Mars colony?
No, because the Chinese plan 'something' I am not sure what but they plan another feat.
Russians yes, maybe its just talk and they are not interested they are stuck in a meat grinder war in Ukraine and can no longer land robots on the Moon
India and others for example Brazil...not sure but ISRO is moving forward somewhat
but China no, you do not get much public info but they are more open than the Soviets were, they have more or less stated they will do a MSR and perhaps can do it before NASA
'China targets 2030 for Mars sample return mission, potential landing areas revealed '
https://spacenews.com/china-targets-203 … -revealed/
The update, while short and vague, comes as NASA is reassessing its Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission due to major budget and schedule concerns.
A recent research article in the journal JGR Planets additionally reveals three preselected landing zones for Tianwen-3. These are Amazonis Planitia, Utopia Planitia—the area within which the Zhurong Tianwen-1 rover landed—and Chryse Planitia.
The paper assesses Martian atmospheric eddies, or movements of air, dust, or water in a circle. It advises that regions with frequent atmospheric eddy occurrences should be avoided for the safety of the Tianwen-3 landing and ascent stages. The paper finds Chryse Planitia to be the optimal landing area for Tianwen-3.
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2024-04-21 12:26:53)
Offline
I'm convinced that Elon Musk will play some role in Mars sample return; his approach will be significantly less complex than that proposed by NASA and ESA. No one should underestimate his resolve towards the Red Planet!
A rebirth of the Red Dragon program could occur with not too much fuss and bother if NASA threw some money towards it. There's already a Mars capable vehicle available in Falcon Heavy and Vulcan-Centaur is waiting in the wings...
Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2024-04-21 10:07:49)
Offline
James L. Green was a leader of the Planetary Science Division, involved with successfully completed missions or launched, including the New Horizons probe to Pluto, the MESSENGER probe to Mercury, the launch of Juno probe and JPL's Curiosity rover on Mars which would later inspire Perseverance, nicknamed Percy.
A Single Launch MSR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_An9WNR9_js
He is also a Balloon fan
'How Far Could Civil War Balloonists See?'
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-spac … 180968998/
Offline