The EV Battery Revolution

louis · 2021-11-17 14:51:06

Very good video on the EV battery revolution being led by Tesla:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pff085WDs_k

It looks increasingly certain that EVs are going to dip below the sticker price of ICE vehicles in the next 5 years.

Tesla are looking to introduce LFP batteries.

Costs going down, down, down.

Calliban · 2021-11-17 15:25:11

Meanwhile, back in the real world, this is happening...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 … osts-soar/

The same cost increases are being seen across many industries, including wind turbine and solar panel manufacturers. Some of it is due to transportation bottlenecks. We spent years developing minimum cost JIT supply chains instead of resilient ones. But China is now past peak coal production and peak oil. This has led to supply shortfalls of key industrial materials, as they restrict exports and power shortages that have shutdown a lot of factories. They are racing to build 150 new fission power reactors, but this may end up merely cushioning their decline.

I have a very different prediction for you. In 5 years time, fewer people will be able to own cars of any kind. Cars will get more expensive and the average man will get poorer, with less disposable income. Up until recently, car ownership has remained fairly constant in OECD countries, with the average number of miles driven per year declining since 2008. But a lot of young people can no longer afford cars at all and the price of used cars has been rising rapidly. What does that tell you about the affordability of new cars?

As techno utopians fantasise about an electric future, the energy base of the economy is depleting. This is slowly squeezing the life out of disposable income. If you drive at all in the future, your car is far more likely to be the future equivalent of a Fiat Panda than a Tesla model 3. I expect that many techno idealists will still be raving over the next big thing, as their gas supplies are cut off and brown outs leave them without power for days at a time. I wonder how many will huddle under blankets, shivering in the cold, wondering exactly when those wind powered heat pumps will come to their rescue?

Last edited by Calliban (2021-11-17 15:48:46)

louis · 2021-11-17 15:50:58

Well there are undoubtedly dystopian elements to the future and there are many people determined to make car ownership untenable in urban settings. For a young person the ambition of owning a car while living in the city is unlikely to be that attractive as they have to live in box flats with no parking. The electric bike or scooter and public transport options (which have certainly improved in most cities) look more attractive.

However, I think these supply issues are likely to be temporary. We've seen problems with petrol car production as well which is why second hand prices have been rising.

The good thing about this is that it's a matter of price (real price as opposed to dollar prices). If Tesla can achieve its objectives the real price of Tesla cars will fall.

I don't think you have to be a "techno utopian" to see that tomorrow's world will definitely be green and electric powered. Hard headed business people see that. Why, if you were a diesel truck operator would you stick with diesel, if you can use electricity from an overhead power line to power an electric truck at a much lower cost per mile?

Calliban wrote:

Meanwhile, back in the real world, this is happening...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 … osts-soar/
The same cost increases are being seen across many industries, including wind turbine and solar panel manufacturers. Some of it is due to transportation bottlenecks. We spent years developing minimum cost JIT supply chains instead of resilient ones. But China is now past peak coal production and peak oil. This has led to supply shortfalls of key industrial materials, as they restrict exports and power shortages that have shutdown a lit of factories. They are racing to build 150 new fission power reactors, but this may end up merely cushioning their decline.
I have a very different prediction for you. In 5 years time, fewer people will be able to own cars of any kind. Cars will get more expensive and the average man will get poorer, with less disposable income. Up until recently, car ownership has remained fairly constant, with the average number of miles driven per year declining since 2008. But a lot of young people can no longer afford cars at all and the price of used cars has been rising rapidly. What does that tell you about the affordability of new cars?
As techno utopians fantasise about an electric future, the energy base of the economy is depleting. This is slowly squeezing the life out of disposable income. If you drive at all in the future, your car is far more likely to be the future equivalent of a Fiat Panda than a Tesla model 3.

kbd512 · 2021-11-17 22:34:57

Louis,

louis wrote:

Well there are undoubtedly dystopian elements to the future and there are many people determined to make car ownership untenable in urban settings. For a young person the ambition of owning a car while living in the city is unlikely to be that attractive as they have to live in box flats with no parking. The electric bike or scooter and public transport options (which have certainly improved in most cities) look more attractive.

Electric motorcycles / scooters / mini cars are far more practical and not required to be built to the same standards as NHTSA-approved highway vehicles, so I can see those working acceptably well inside of a city, or pretty much anywhere off of a highway.

louis wrote:

However, I think these supply issues are likely to be temporary. We've seen problems with petrol car production as well which is why second hand prices have been rising.

If the supply chain issues were fleeting in nature, then they should've been solved by now. Current estimates are 2 to 3 years for JIT to start functioning as intended.

What you wrote sounds an awful lot like what the TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) people thought of the motor vehicle microchip issues, and that they'd have the production backlog resolved within a couple of months. Six months later, the automotive manufacturers are now shut down because none of their electronic gadgets work without specialty microchips that they still can't get from CSMC or TSMC in the required quantities.

Underestimation of the scope and scale of supply chain related problems has been a persistent theme throughout the course of the COVID pandemic.

louis wrote:

The good thing about this is that it's a matter of price (real price as opposed to dollar prices). If Tesla can achieve its objectives the real price of Tesla cars will fall.

The real price / fake price / dollar price / pricey price, is going up, up, and away.

louis wrote:

I don't think you have to be a "techno utopian" to see that tomorrow's world will definitely be green and electric powered. Hard headed business people see that. Why, if you were a diesel truck operator would you stick with diesel, if you can use electricity from an overhead power line to power an electric truck at a much lower cost per mile?

The future you envision will definitely cost a whole lot more green, if that's what you meant. It's a great plan for making people poorer than they already are. Apart from that, there's nothing environmentally friendly about over-consumption and the poverty created by lack of energy availability.

Hard-headed business people are the reason we're in the total mess that we're currently in. If you are looking to the people who created the problems to solve them, then you're going to be unpleasantly surprised when the exact opposite of what you claim to want eventually takes place.

Diesel truck operators aren't looking to completely replace vehicles that they've already paid off, using technology that is nowhere to be found. That's another "bridge to nowhere" project. There are no overhead power lines to power their trucks. If there were, then a few dozen big rigs on a major highway would require around 8 MegaWatts of continuous power to push their vehicles around. Otherwise they need batteries that reduce their load, requiring more trucks and drivers, or they need a combustion engine capable of powering the truck, which largely defeats the purpose of having a catenary wiring system. It's additional weight and cost added to their vehicles for no real benefit, since someone ultimately has to pay for all of this stuff you think is solving problems, despite the fact that real engineers are all too aware that it's only creating new problems that are far more difficult to solve.

The US public roads include 164,000 miles of highways that are part of the National Highway System, with a total of around 4 million miles of public roads. Trying to supply tens of megawatts of power to millions of miles of roadways would be an even bigger cluster-F trainwreck than the current power grid already is. If the power isn't there, then the electrification technology is dead weight that must be carried everywhere, regardless of the availability of electricity.

Basically, our present technology has done a bang-up job of painting us all into a corner. As a result, there's no shortage of snake oil salesmen and cheerleaders for snake oil salesmen willing to sell ice to Eskimos.

louis · 2021-11-18 07:18:51

You do know Tesla actually sell cars...to willing buyers...who then drive them for years...and are happy with the product, going on to buy new Teslas? (Oh yeah, and China already has 4.5 million EVs.)

kbd512 wrote:

Louis,
louis wrote:
Well there are undoubtedly dystopian elements to the future and there are many people determined to make car ownership untenable in urban settings. For a young person the ambition of owning a car while living in the city is unlikely to be that attractive as they have to live in box flats with no parking. The electric bike or scooter and public transport options (which have certainly improved in most cities) look more attractive.
Electric motorcycles / scooters / mini cars are far more practical and not required to be built to the same standards as NHTSA-approved highway vehicles, so I can see those working acceptably well inside of a city, or pretty much anywhere off of a highway.
louis wrote:
However, I think these supply issues are likely to be temporary. We've seen problems with petrol car production as well which is why second hand prices have been rising.
If the supply chain issues were fleeting in nature, then they should've been solved by now. Current estimates are 2 to 3 years for JIT to start functioning as intended.
What you wrote sounds an awful lot like what the TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) people thought of the motor vehicle microchip issues, and that they'd have the production backlog resolved within a couple of months. Six months later, the automotive manufacturers are now shut down because none of their electronic gadgets work without specialty microchips that they still can't get from CSMC or TSMC in the required quantities.
Underestimation of the scope and scale of supply chain related problems has been a persistent theme throughout the course of the COVID pandemic.
louis wrote:
The good thing about this is that it's a matter of price (real price as opposed to dollar prices). If Tesla can achieve its objectives the real price of Tesla cars will fall.
The real price / fake price / dollar price / pricey price, is going up, up, and away.
louis wrote:
I don't think you have to be a "techno utopian" to see that tomorrow's world will definitely be green and electric powered. Hard headed business people see that. Why, if you were a diesel truck operator would you stick with diesel, if you can use electricity from an overhead power line to power an electric truck at a much lower cost per mile?
The future you envision will definitely cost a whole lot more green, if that's what you meant. It's a great plan for making people poorer than they already are. Apart from that, there's nothing environmentally friendly about over-consumption and the poverty created by lack of energy availability.
Hard-headed business people are the reason we're in the total mess that we're currently in. If you are looking to the people who created the problems to solve them, then you're going to be unpleasantly surprised when the exact opposite of what you claim to want eventually takes place.
Diesel truck operators aren't looking to completely replace vehicles that they've already paid off, using technology that is nowhere to be found. That's another "bridge to nowhere" project. There are no overhead power lines to power their trucks. If there were, then a few dozen big rigs on a major highway would require around 8 MegaWatts of continuous power to push their vehicles around. Otherwise they need batteries that reduce their load, requiring more trucks and drivers, or they need a combustion engine capable of powering the truck, which largely defeats the purpose of having a catenary wiring system. It's additional weight and cost added to their vehicles for no real benefit, since someone ultimately has to pay for all of this stuff you think is solving problems, despite the fact that real engineers are all too aware that it's only creating new problems that are far more difficult to solve.
The US public roads include 164,000 miles of highways that are part of the National Highway System, with a total of around 4 million miles of public roads. Trying to supply tens of megawatts of power to millions of miles of roadways would be an even bigger cluster-F trainwreck than the current power grid already is. If the power isn't there, then the electrification technology is dead weight that must be carried everywhere, regardless of the availability of electricity.
Basically, our present technology has done a bang-up job of painting us all into a corner. As a result, there's no shortage of snake oil salesmen and cheerleaders for snake oil salesmen willing to sell ice to Eskimos.

Last edited by louis (2021-11-18 07:20:00)

SpaceNut · 2021-11-18 14:26:07

We have also seen them take the electric motor out of them and put an engine in them as well not happy with the charging or performance.

SpaceNut · 2021-12-12 15:10:26

Manufacturing plants are sprouting up all over the world to produce them for the Electric vehicles.

kbd512 · 2021-12-12 15:18:43

SpaceNut,

What's powering all those manufacturing plants?

Are they powered by solar panels and Lithium-ion batteries?

Tesla's GigaFactories all use coal and natural gas energy supplied by the grid, and we know that 20% of that is lost on its way to the load being powered.

How about all the materials that must be mined that go into them?

We're expending at least 3X more energy than it takes to make a combustion engine powered car, in order to produce the technology to store a "fuel" that contains 42X less energy density per unit weight, after combustion engine efficiency / losses are taken into consideration. After we run out of economically extractable Lithium, I hope we have something more abundant to take its place.

SpaceNut · 2021-12-12 15:26:45

I made a couple of plant posts but I do not think any mention what power systems they are making use of in those articles for those new facilities.

Louis would love to see a report that indicates use of surplus solar power being used to make them...

kbd512 · 2021-12-12 15:50:48

SpaceNut,

The GigaFactory located here in America is powered by coal, because Elon Musk knows how to count and needs the cheapest energy he can get to produce extremely energy intensive virtue signaling toys for rich people.

SpaceNut · 2021-12-12 22:00:08

This is the first battery gigafactory that the GM's and LG Energy Solution's joint venture is building in the U.S. (the second one will be built in Spring Hill, Tennessee). Two more plants are in the pipeline according to General Motors. The plant in Lordstown, Ohio is envisioned for 30 GWh annually with an option for more. It's a crucial investment for the ramp-up of the Ultium-based electric cars.

SpaceNut · 2021-12-19 10:56:57

The Forever Battery That Promises to Change the EV Industry

Lucid just rolled out its first cars with 500-plus miles of driving range. Batteries comprise three things. A cathode, an anode, and an electrolyte. Batteries work by promoting the flow of ions between the cathode and anode through the electrolyte.
With solid-state batteries, the name pretty much says it all. Take the liquid electrolyte solution in conventional batteries. Compress it into a solid. Create a small, hyper-compact solid battery that – because it has zero wasted space – lasts far longer and charges far faster.
QuantumScape has created small-scale solid-state batteries which work.

so a solid state battery which was once called a Dry cell is now something new?

The real problem with batteries is the misconception that you get to use all of the voltage and current capacity of it.
The next is not understanding Ahr ratings which is based on internal temperatures not damaging the battery.
The next comes from not understanding what a low battery voltage means for operations as that is the end of the bucket of wattage that you get to use.

tahanson43206 · 2021-12-19 12:22:21

Well SpaceNut... you've done it again .... in Post #12 your (indirectly) asked what the difference might be between a "dry cell" and a "solid state battery"

I thought this was an interesting question, so asked Google. It turns out this is a popular question:

People also ask
What is the difference between dry cell and battery?
A battery contains electrochemical cells that can store chemical energy to be converted to electrical energy. A dry-cell battery stores energy in an
immobilized electrolyte paste, which minimizes the need for water.
Batteries | Boundless Chemistry - Lumen Learning – Simple Book ...
https://courses.lumenlearning.com › chapter › batteries
Search for: What is the difference between dry cell and battery?
Is solid-state battery better?
How is solid-state battery different?
Image result for difference between dry cell and solid state battery
Do solid-state batteries charge faster?
Image result for difference between dry cell and solid state battery
Which is better dry battery or wet battery?
Are dry cell batteries better?

Are you game to dig a little deeper? I'm guessing a "solid state battery" does not use water at all.

There MUST be a reason researchers decided not to use a primitive term, when they could use a zippy sounding new one.

(th)

SpaceNut · 2021-12-19 16:36:33

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrolyte

solid electrolyte compression molding or sintering of powder materials.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_electrolyte

SpaceNut · 2021-12-30 21:50:48

Scientists are working to develop techniques for recycling lithium and cobalt batteries, and to design batteries based on other materials. Tesla plans to produce cobalt-free batteries within the next few years. Others aim to replace lithium with sodium, which has properties very similar to lithium’s but is much more abundant.

While solid-state batteries would be well suited for consumer electronics and electric vehicles, for large-scale energy storage developing solid electrolytes, which would make batteries more robust.

SpaceNut · 2022-01-08 21:37:51

We have had many a battery issue lately and while the depth of charge capacity has been to push the limits of what they can hold why not try to solve why you need so much power?

600 miles on a single charge? Automakers race to beat Tesla on electric car battery range

then again why would you want a tesla battery when Tesla tried to charge $22,500 for new battery pack when a $5,000 repair did the trick

Of course the display is about pack cell voltage matching as to why it was having an issue.

Who wants a Tesla battery not me says the patented technology called Gemini-swapped battery pack that was seen squeezing 752 miles from a single charge without stopping to recharge.

SpaceNut · 2022-01-23 18:00:27

Nine EV Charging Station Sites Coming To NH!

EV Charging Rates Come to New Hampshire

Clean Energy NH learned last year, for instance that some of the few fast charging stations we have in New Hampshire pay the equivalent of $3.08/kWh, which is something in the neighborhood of 15 to 18 times what you likely pay per kWh at home.
That’s why we at CENH likes Unitil’s proposal. Here’s what they laid out.
Charging overnight, from 8PM to 6AM would be cheapest.
Charging during the day, from 6AM to 3PM would be in the middle.
Charging in the evening, from 3PM to 8PM, when the grid is most stressed, would be most expensive.

ouch....

First, some EV charging lingo. Level 1 charging is when you simply plug your car into a standard wall outlet. That provides up to six miles of range per hour of charging. Level 2 is more like a dryer outlet, which provides around 35 miles per hour of charging. Compare those to DCFC, which can add 150 miles or more in an hour.

Not very good for the time to charge....

Calliban · 2022-02-15 05:52:48

Remote driving: an interesting technology that has a lot of potential applications.
https://insights.solitonsystems.com/rem … te-driving

Unlike the techno-fantasy of a self driving car, remote driving is a near term technology and can be developed from existing technology used for drone control. It allows the car and driver to be decoupled, with the driver sitting in a booth many miles away from the car. Potentially, drivers could easily switch from one car to another after completing a journey. This could allow vehicles to be tailored to individual journeys. You call up a taxi using an ap on your phone to take you from one town to another. The taxi drops you off and then parks for recharging. The driver then switches to another car performing a different journey. Short range vehicles using various forms of stored energy can carry out short range journeys. ICE cars perform longer journeys.

Cost could be a stumbling point. To simulate the driving experience effectively, with peripheral vision, the driver will need a booth that presents images from cameras mounted all around the vehicle.

SpaceNut · 2022-02-15 19:48:02

Sure would be better than the autopilot crashes...

On a note I got the 2007 Toyota Prius and have been watching the gas use and charging of the batteries. The dash computer shows the regenerative breaking only adds 50whr for the figure it displays when the battery its recharging is kilowatt hours in size seems sort of wimpy....

SpaceNut · 2022-02-21 18:42:51

For those that fear running out of a charge This portable EV charger is genius and I think it will solve the major issue of EV ownership ZipCharge, which has developed the Go, a revolutionary portable EV charger that allows anyone to charge their electric vehicles anywhere they park.

The lightweight ZipCharge Go power bank is the size of a compact wheeled suitcase which can be charged at home or elsewhere using a standard domestic plug. Using the retractable handle, you can then wheel it to wherever you’ve parked your EV and plug it into the charging port.
The ZipCharge Go provides up to 20 miles (32km) of range, providing sufficient range for the average daily commute (in UK/EU), in a little over 30 mins.
What's particularly smart about the ZipCharge Go is that is features a bi-directional AC-DC inverter, which enables two-way charging from the grid to the unit, and from the unit to the grid. That means the power bank can be used to store cheap off-peak energy and feed it back into the grid at peak times.

They can be owned but one can get a Chargers purchase outright or on subscription for as little as £49 a month.

SpaceNut · 2022-03-04 21:19:06

The cold, hard truth about EVs in winter 504fb83a9815990e2afda9909afa3bd0

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-04-17 07:22:55

Heat-driven photovoltaic device hits 40% efficiency
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/04 … sing-heat/

some other interesting threads Aluminum used for batteries https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=9939 Fuel Cell Development, Application, Prospects https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=8974 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=9663 , and , Thermal Energy Storage https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=9229 and EV charging revolution https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=10076

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-04-17 07:23:16)

SpaceNut · 2022-05-01 17:14:43

Mars_B4_Moon wrote:

Researchers manage to charge a lithium-ion battery to 60 percent in 5.6 minutes
https://interestingengineering.com/lith … -5-minutes

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-05-07 07:51:52

World's Fastest Electric Car Charger Installed in Norway - Full charge in 15 minutes

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/04/wo … in-norway/

SpaceNut · 2022-05-22 18:42:40

LG Chem's LG Energy Solution (LGES) expands its battery offer with LFP (lithium iron phosphate) Lithium cells in Michigan

Of course Musk thinks that Biden is ignoring his Tesla vehicles.... not really when they are to costly for the majority of those that could benefit with owning one.

Elon Musk says the Biden administration 'has done everything it can' to 'ignore' Tesla

Environmentalists Are Trying To Stop Tesla's Giga Texas Expansion The automaker wants to build a new battery cathode plant next to its main Austin facility.

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#1 2021-11-17 14:51:06

The EV Battery Revolution

#2 2021-11-17 15:25:11

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#3 2021-11-17 15:50:58

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#4 2021-11-17 22:34:57

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#5 2021-11-18 07:18:51

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#6 2021-11-18 14:26:07

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#7 2021-12-12 15:10:26

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#8 2021-12-12 15:18:43

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#9 2021-12-12 15:26:45

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#10 2021-12-12 15:50:48

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#11 2021-12-12 22:00:08

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#12 2021-12-19 10:56:57

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#13 2021-12-19 12:22:21

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#14 2021-12-19 16:36:33

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#15 2021-12-30 21:50:48

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#16 2022-01-08 21:37:51

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#17 2022-01-23 18:00:27

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#18 2022-02-15 05:52:48

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#19 2022-02-15 19:48:02

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#20 2022-02-21 18:42:51

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#21 2022-03-04 21:19:06

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#22 2022-04-17 07:22:55

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#23 2022-05-01 17:14:43

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#24 2022-05-07 07:51:52

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

#25 2022-05-22 18:42:40

Re: The EV Battery Revolution

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