American Moon Base prediction... - tell me what you think

Palomar · 2003-08-20 09:13:27

*Hey Clark, thanks for the information! Good luck to India and China on their space-related endeavors. And Europe too, of course.

--Cindy

clark · 2003-08-21 14:00:08

Looks like we can add Brazil to those countries developing a greater interest in space related endeavours...

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/08/2 … index.html

Brazil reaches for the stars
Thursday, August 21, 2003 Posted: 12:39 PM EDT (1639 GMT)

ALCANTARA, Brazil -- Brazil is poised to become the first Latin American nation to send its own rockets into space, blasting them off from a jungle launch pad first envisioned a generation ago by its former military rulers.
Situated on a lush peninsula jutting into the Atlantic Ocean in Brazil's Amazon region, nearly 800 experts and army personnel at the Alcantara launch base are working around the clock to complete the 65-foot rocket.
"As of the 25th (of August) we are ready to initiate the launch sequence," said Major-Brigadier Tiago da Silva Ribeiro, general coordinator of the project. "We have had no glitches of any kind so far."

A successful launch would represent a big victory for Brazil, which says Alcantara has the potential to become one of the world's biggest commercial satellite launch centers.
The base is the world's closest to the equator, allowing rockets to use less fuel to reach orbit and carry larger payloads because they catch a ride on the Earth's centrifugal forces.
Brazil struck a deal with the Ukraine in July under which Alcantara will be the host station for launches of that country's Cyclone rockets.

Echus_Chasma · 2003-08-24 01:38:57

Wasn't Brazil where that rocket exploded on the launch pad a few days back?

Byron · 2003-08-24 06:35:12

Yes, although it didn't make a big splash on the news, the rocket Brazil was about to launch exploded last Friday, killing over 20 technicians and support personnel.

Truely a sad time for Brazil and their effort to develop a space infrastructure....

B

Palomar · 2003-08-24 12:20:08

Wasn't Brazil where that rocket exploded on the launch pad a few days back?

*Yes. I posted about it on the day it happened, in the "New Discoveries *2*" thread (Science & Technology Folder).

Last news I read reported approximately 20 people killed during the explosion.

--Cindy

Echus_Chasma · 2003-08-24 13:10:58

Oh damn,
I feel sorry for the Brazilians.

clark · 2003-08-27 10:20:13

From the CAIb report regarding the Columbia disaster and the future of NASA:

The Board in its investigation has focused on the physical and organizational causes of the Columbia accident and the recommended actions required for future safe Shuttle operation. In the course of that investigation, however, two realities affecting those recommendations have become evident to the Board. One is the lack, over the past three decades, of any national mandate providing NASA a compelling mission requiring human presence in space. President John Kennedy's 1961 charge to send Americans to the moon and return them safely to Earth "before this decade is out" linked NASA's efforts to core Cold War national interests. Since the 1970s, NASA has not been charged with carrying out a similar high priority mission that would justify the expenditure of resources on a scale equivalent to those allocated for Project Apollo. The result is the agency has found it necessary to gain the support of diverse constituencies. NASA has had to participate in the give and take of the normal political process in order to obtain the resources needed to carry out its programs. NASA has usually failed to receive budgetary support consistent with its ambitions. The result, as noted throughout Part Two of the report, is an organization straining to do too much with too little.
A second reality, following from the lack of a clearly defined long-term space mission, is the lack of sustained government commitment over the past decade to improving U.S. access to space by developing a second-generation space transportation system. Without a compelling reason to do so, successive Administrations and Congresses have not been willing to commit the billions of dollars required to develop such a vehicle. In addition, the space community has proposed to the government the development of vehicles such as the National Aerospace Plane and X-33, which required "leapfrog" advances in technology; those advances have proven to be unachievable. As Apollo 11 Astronaut Buzz Aldrin, one of the members of the recent Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace Industry, commented in the Commission's November 2002 report, "Attempts at developing breakthrough space transportation systems have proved illusory." The Board believes that the country should plan for future space transportation capabilities without making them dependent on technological breakthroughs." [p 209]

Congressional hearings next week to hash all of this out... President Bush to speak sometime during, or after that...

Hmmm, NASA needs a, 'compelling mission requiring human presence in space,' whatever could that be... Josh...

Josh Cryer · 2003-08-27 15:57:37

::taps his foot and shrugs:: I won't worry until our probes are running around on Mars sending back cute pictures.

Edit, note that that CIAb report isn't exactly profound in what it is saying. And indeed, I believe it simplifies the issue. An Apollo-style mission isn't the way to ?get safety.? If anything, it's the best way to get our people killed. (Especially if we had Apollo-style ambitions without Apollo-style budgets.)

Algol · 2003-08-27 16:20:05

hmmmmm

The CAIB report suggesting NASA needs a 'compelling mission requiring human pressence in space', public interest in mars is at its highest in over a decade due to the combination of its close approach and the 4 missions currently en-route and due to arrive at the beginning of next year, more societies and groups than ever before pushing for increased human exploration, X-prize to be won in the first half of next year (fingers crossed), i swear if america doesnt make a commitment now or in the near future to put people on mars, they never will!

We really are building up to something over the next year, (SpaceX are launching falcon at the end of the year too) commercial spaceflight and public interest in space are both about to take off, the goverment must reallise this, and hopefully they will respond with positive action.

clark · 2003-08-27 16:40:48

Edit, note that that CIAb report isn't exactly profound in what it is saying. And indeed, I believe it simplifies the issue

Now why would they need to simplify the message? Perhaps to be heard loudly, and clearly. The CIAB report was designed to review all of NASA, not just the saftey issues. This isn't just about the Space Shuttle, this is about the directions and goals of Human space flight.

The thing is pretty mericiless, and it is pointing out the severe budgetary and historical mismanagment that has led to our current situation. It will be interesting to see if Goldin has any reactions.

The overall gist though from the report is that we need to make a decision of whether or not we are serious about human space flight- we have to stop dicking around. The CAIB is effectively saying if we are going to go through the trouble of putting people in space, we should have them doing something worthwhile, on the scale of Apollo.

In other words, a mission.

Bush Sr. looked at such a mission, but now we have the benefit of more mature science and technology than in the early 90's.

The Shuttle has to go, the CAIB is pretty upfront on that point. If not now, then very soon.

Algol · 2003-08-27 17:24:59

maybe i spoke to soon........

Mars Trip Not on Political Radar - Wired News

Although, reading between the lines from what the spokesman says, is it that theyre not interested in going to mars right now, or that theyre not being told to be interested in going to mars right now (as in i-would-if-i-could-but-the-boss-hasnt-given-the-go-ahead-yet-but-might-do-soon-hint-hint)

clark · 2003-08-28 09:42:09

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s … shuttle_dc

NASA Seeks Urgent Mission After Columbia Tragedy
Wed Aug 27, 3:42 PM ET
Science - Reuters

NASA Seeks Urgent Mission After Columbia Tragedy
Wed Aug 27, 3:42 PM ET Add Science - Reuters to My Yahoo!

By Deborah Zabarenko

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - One day after the release of a scathing report on the shuttle Columbia disaster, NASA (news - web sites)'s chief agreed with one fundamental criticism: the U.S. space agency lacks an urgent mission in the post-Cold War world.

NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe said on Wednesday there was no motivation for his agency now comparable to the superpower competition for space that pushed NASA in its early years.

There is "nothing comparable to what drove us as a nation with the threat of the prospect of thermonuclear war by a bipolar opponent on the other side of this globe that existed in the early 1960s," O'Keefe told a news conference.

Asked about deep problems with NASA's culture, O'Keefe said there were no easy answers but called this a "seminal moment" in his agency's 45-year history.

"It's going to require leadership at every level," he said, referring to malaise and cynicism at NASA. "This is not something that you direct or dictate ... It's not about just walking around telling everybody shape up or ship out."

He said he expected a national debate over NASA's future, including a redefinition of its mission. That debate could start Sept. 16, when the U.S. Senate has scheduled a hearing on the Columbia accident report.

Surferosad · 2003-08-28 14:09:55

I think that the only hope left for the US civilian space effort lies in the Chinese doing something spectacular... Sad!

clark · 2003-08-29 09:42:47

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ar … Aug28.html

White House to Weigh Interplanetary Missions
No Immediate Budget Boost for NASA Planned as Bush Mulls Human Spaceflight
By Mike Allen and Eric Pianin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, August 29, 2003; Page A08

Administration officials disclosed in an interview that the White House will begin work next week on a blueprint for interplanetary human flight over the next 20 or 30 years, with plans calling for Bush to issue an ambitious new national vision for space travel by early next year.
The officials said they will wrestle with the military's role in space, as well as with whether to emphasize manned or robotic missions, whether to build a base in space, what vehicle should replace the shuttle and what planets should be visited.

The official said the interagency group will look at the space program's relationship with national defense, as well as with the advancement of science, and at "the question of how this relates to national goals that, at first blush, have nothing to do with spaceflight."
"The president's been very clear from the beginning that we want to continue doing this," an aide said.

Yeah, I'm crazy. :;):

clark · 2003-08-29 09:45:01

from the editor of NASAWATCH.COM:

http://www.nasawatch.com/#current

Editor's note: NASA Watch sources say that no decision has been made to turn down - or approve - NASA requests for additional funding. Look for a supplemental request to the FY 2004 budget around $1.7 billion. 80% of that money would cover Return to Flight and OSP. There will be no money for OSP in the FY 2005 budget submission. NASA is planning to ask for a $2 Billion plus-up in NASA's top line starting in FY 2005 to allow NASA to build up capability for advanced human spaceflight. A mission to the moon (unmanned) as a precursor is a possible part of this new effort.
Draft language being exchanged between NASA and the White House calls this effort "Space, a new national imperative" with the plan that this is to be announced no earlier than State of the Union in 2004. The National Space Policy Directive under development covering space transportation at OSTP will call for the Shuttle to be retired in 2012. Some (in Congress and OSTP) want the Shuttle retired even sooner. Rumors of a presidential appearance connected with NASA and space policy in late September in the Washington DC area continue to circulate. More to follow.

Josh Cryer · 2003-08-29 13:31:36

Hmm, I wonder if a silly "let's make it to Mars by 2020" speech would make me lose the bet.

I better put some money away just in case, before I spend it all. :;):

clark · 2003-08-29 13:41:54

Perhaps the most realisitic proposal will be to return to the Moon, laying the groundwork to send Humans to Mars. I am more optimitic in a timeline being set for a return to the moon, as opposed to one being set for Mars.

If one is set for Mars, it might be a general "before 2030" kind of thing. That would give us 25 years to get there.

With a moon something or other in the 2015-2025 time frame.

Of course there is a nice window for a manned mission to Mars in 2018...

Shaun Barrett · 2003-08-29 19:39:00

Why not the Moon by 2010 and off to Mars in 2018? Sounds much better to me!

Josh Cryer · 2003-08-30 13:15:06

Sounds good to me, as long as it means I win the bet.

No, really, I think clark may be on to something here. I think obviously one thing could change this, though, and that is China having aspirations to go to Mars. China could wait to make such an attempt as soon as the US decides to go to the Moon. It would make our officials quite dizzy.

dicktice · 2003-09-02 12:03:57

It made me feel ill, when I read: "No future plans while Bush mulls the future of human space flight." How pathetic!

Palomar · 2003-09-02 13:17:18

...and that is China having aspirations to go to Mars...

*I saw an item in the news last week that China hopes to send a PROBE to Mars by 2030. This is very different from other news I've read regarding China's plans for space exploration.

If that article was correct, then it seems China isn't about to enter a space-race any time soon!

--Cindy

clark · 2003-09-02 13:20:27

http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/03083014 … grvg1.html

Indian president 'inspired' by Mars from his New Delhi palace
NEW DELHI (AFP) Aug 30, 2003

Indian President Abdul Kalam gazed at Mars from his New Delhi palace as the red planet reached its closest point to Earth in 60,000 years and felt "inspired," his office said Saturday.
The president, a scientist who built India's missile arsenal, gathered his aides this week and watched Mars from a telescope set up in his 340-room British-built palace in the heart of the capital.
"The beautiful and colourful features of Mars apart from the scientific aspects in the southern sky and our expanding universe inspired him," a statement from his office said.
It said Kalam wanted India's space program, which has aspired to reach the moon, to eventually shoot for Mars.
The 71 year-old Indian head of state "is convinced that Mars will become a sought-after planet for human exploration for wealth and habitat in a few decades," the statement said.

Palomar · 2003-09-02 13:32:53

...The 71 year-old Indian head of state "is convinced that Mars will become a sought-after planet for human exploration for wealth and habitat in a few decades," the statement said...

*Well, if India is willing to throw its hat into the ring, "the more the merrier." I just hope this man isn't looking at Mars from a purely exploitative point of view, i.e. "wealth." And if they and Pakistan can both keep from nuking each other over the Kashmir dispute (Leave The People of Kashmir Alone!!), they just might make it.

--Cindy

clark · 2003-09-04 10:11:54

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/shuttle-03zd.html

Senators Deplore Lack Of Vision In US Space Program
Washington (AFP) Sep 04, 2003

In reply to senators' request for a new outline of NASA's objectives for the space program, O'Keefe replied: "We have been pursuing an interagency process designed to articulate the broader US exploration objectives and from that we'll form a range of strategic options.
"The administration has got a strong interest" in the program, he said.

[Senator]Brownback said he believed the United States "wants to engage in a discussion of what our vision for space is, not only NASA."

That vision "involves exploration but it's also commercial and military," he said.

Just talk right now, but we should see more tangible results in the coming weeks as the NASA budget clears the Senate, and a new 'roadmap' to human space exploration is outlined.

clark · 2003-09-04 10:18:58

http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm … =index.cfm

Arms Race in Space?
U.S. Air Force Quietly Focuses on
Space Control
September 1, 2003

Efforts to build attack satellites are currently taking a back seat to ground-based technologies that disrupt enemy space assets and protect our own - what the Air Force calls "space control" and "counterspace operations."
But the shift in research priorities does not mean the Air Force has given up plans to put these weapons in space. The service's "Strategic Master Plan for FY 04 and Beyond" makes it abundantly clear that officials intend to deploy a variety of space weapons eventually. The Master Plan calls for development of "defensive and offensive counterspace" capabilities during the next two decades that will produce "active on-orbit protection" and "space-based counterspace" systems between 2016 and 2028.

And despite its acknowledgement that the technology is not yet ready, the Air Force continues to pursue the development of microsatellite weapons. The service's 2004 budget request gives a program called Advanced Spacecraft Technology $14.4 million to develop and test a microsatellite "to demonstrate ... operations around a non-cooperative resident space object." The program also contains $14.8 million to "develop microsatellite (10-100 kilogram) technologies ... [that] could enable applications such as space protection, [and] counterspace capabilities."
These efforts are part of several microsatellite technology programs, including the Experimental Satellite Series (XSS). Launched Jan. 29, the 28-kilogram XSS-10 successfully demonstrated its ability to move closely around another object to take images. The contract to build its successor, XSS-11, and its more specific sensor payload already has been awarded.

A little more than talk....

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Re: American Moon Base prediction... - tell me what you think

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