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#1 2021-03-11 05:55:54

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 6,858

Could China beat Space X to Mars?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUoTNTziE6A

Interesting question.

I agree that China is probably giving a human landing on Mars much more priority than they publicly acknowledge.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#2 2021-03-11 07:17:13

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 7,297

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

For Louis re new topic .... Thanks for the link to the interesting video, ** and ** for setting up this new topic!

This certainly appears to be a horse race of global proportions!

I liked the animation of the claw encompassing the Earth!

This was a well composed and configured video. 

(th)

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#3 2021-03-11 07:41:05

Calliban
Member
From: Northern England, UK
Registered: 2019-08-18
Posts: 1,154

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

I think they already have, in so much as they already have a spacecraft in low Mars orbit.  A manned mission will require a great deal of technological development in subsystems like space suits, power supply and life support, that the Chinese may be better prepared for than SpaceX.  As a national government running the world's largest economy and largest manufacturing industry, the Chinese government has far more resources at its disposal than SpaceX.  I wouldn't be surprised if Mars became an exclusive Chinese colony.


Interested in space science, engineering and technology.

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#4 2021-03-11 10:19:02

Oldfart1939
Member
Registered: 2016-11-26
Posts: 2,221

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

SpaceX has Elon's Tesla out there in elliptical orbit and going beyond Mars. He did that 2 years ago.

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#5 2021-03-11 20:59:17

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 6,858

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

Yep they have $14,000 billion at their disposal. While SpaceX/Musk maybe have $20 billion (over a few years). But the CCP have a lot of calls on their money and their attention, plus they are deeply paranoid about political threats. So while I am sure they would like to beat Musk to Mars, they also want to crush Christianity, incorporate Hong Kong into one system, defeat the Muslim threat, take over the South China Sea, invade Taiwan, have the world's most powerful military and navy, secure all the world's minerals and become the world's no. 1 economy. Is Mars really top of their bill in the way it is for Musk? I doubt it.

Your point about sub-systems is perfectly valid but I think there are a lot of off-the-shelf solutions for Musk and SpaceX. NASA for coms. Bigelow for habs. ISS life support for survival on Mars, industrial 3D printers.

We have to remember that whereas we are used to robot rovers operating out in the open on the cyrogenically cold Mars surface, most activities relating to Space X's human mission will take place indoors in heated environments. So you can use ordinary 3D printers (as long as the lower G is not an issue etc).


Calliban wrote:

I think they already have, in so much as they already have a spacecraft in low Mars orbit.  A manned mission will require a great deal of technological development in subsystems like space suits, power supply and life support, that the Chinese may be better prepared for than SpaceX.  As a national government running the world's largest economy and largest manufacturing industry, the Chinese government has far more resources at its disposal than SpaceX.  I wouldn't be surprised if Mars became an exclusive Chinese colony.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#6 2021-03-11 21:18:50

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 23,078

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

Well news has it that Russia is partnering with China for a moon station and landings for the future....

edit
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru … d=msedgdhp

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#7 2021-05-15 15:44:42

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 884

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

They are not racing, that is for sure. In regards to discussion here I think you guys should re-open registration, I'm lucky to remember my old passwords on old blogs and this place the day of the old icok bbs and people chatting about the Mars society experiments growing stuff. The Chinese seem to move at glacial pace but each step they have done these past years is massively important, I remember watching them way back in January 2001 some people thought them too old fashioned and communist still going around in Mao boots and boiler suits, then Shenzhou launched it had Rabbits, seeds, some other animals. Soon some years later you read of plans for manned missions and space stations, on the Moon Rover they already tried to farm some biosphere Cotton, Sprout Vegetable and other Seeds. I think the un-manned landing is impressive, the Rover looks good and what they done is a good achievement.

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#8 2021-05-27 11:18:00

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 884

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

Moon & Mars done, Jupiter & Uranus next on the list — China’s racing away in space too. They are doing outer Solar stystem, interstellar or heliosphere missions next. https://flipboard.com/topic/spacecraft/ … ay-in-spa/

https://www.msn.com/

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#9 2021-05-30 16:26:45

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 884

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

SpaceX Appears to Be Assembling Its Orbital Starship Booster
https://futurism.com/the-byte/spacex-as … ip-booster

China launches Tianzhou-2 cargo craft to new space station
https://www.spaceflightinsider.com/orga … e-station/

Musk is still moving!

'One year ago today.
It’s wild to think about how the # Starship program has gone from this to being on the verge of an orbital launch, with a fully-stacked Starship/Super Heavy.'
https://twitter.com/TylerG1998/status/1 … 0338329602

'We hope to see a Re-flight of the historical prototype'
https://twitter.com/NextHorizonsSF/stat … 2733672448

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#10 2021-05-30 16:30:09

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 6,858

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

They seem to be about 20 years behind NASA with their Mars lander rover.

Mars_B4_Moon wrote:

Moon & Mars done, Jupiter & Uranus next on the list — China’s racing away in space too. They are doing outer Solar stystem, interstellar or heliosphere missions next. https://flipboard.com/topic/spacecraft/ … ay-in-spa/

https://www.msn.com/


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#11 2021-06-01 11:25:36

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 884

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

Will Mars be speaking Chinese or Spanish?
The Mars Society of Spain and Peru has something going on the China station, they seem to do desert experiments in region in southwestern Peru, they have some Mesmerizing Desert Oasis places and its a region studied by astrobiology.Almost the entire of Andes Mountains have the location of a large, high-elevation dry region.

Astronauts on the upcoming Shenzhou-12 mission will engage in spacewalks outside the Tianhe core module of China’s Tiangong space station, a key figure in the nation’s manned space endeavor said.
https://www.leonarddavid.com/china-read … tion-site/
China will launch a trio of astronauts on the upcoming Shenzhou XII mission in June to dock with the currently unoccupied Tianhe core module of China’s Tiangong space station.

They have a number of international partners lined up for their station.  China's large modular space station or Tiangong space station will have  a Telescope from Germany, a Study of Heat and Fire from Japan, a Tumors in Space thing led by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, some power Panel a Muslim Solar Cells Space Application thing from Arabia, an experiment from Switzerland, the National Centre for Nuclear Research of Poland, some spectroscope experiment by the Indian Institute of Astrophysics and the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
and

'An experiment will be jointly implemented by the Mars Society's Peru Chapter and Spain Chapter.'

https://www.facebook.com/TheMarsSocietyEspana
https://twitter.com/MarsSocietyPeru

Incentivando la exploración espacial a Marte en Perú.

La Mars Society
es una organización sin ánimo de lucro estadounidense de defensa del espacio impulsada por voluntarios de todo el mundo dedicada a promover la exploración humana y colonización del planeta Marte.

I don't know what the experiment is I will assume its to help in Mars exploration.

A look at previous stuff from Peru
http://peru.marssociety.org/?page_id=594
They considered Experiments in ferrous oxides, isolated missons with plant growth limited communication, very little water, EVA suits and exploration

Station seems to have the robot arm like CanadaArm or the Japan HTV

Tianzhou-2 docks with China's space station module
https://twitter.com/AJ_FI/status/1398751732579110912

The trials and triumphs of our missions to Mars
https://thenextweb.com/news/trials-triu … yndication

China succeeds in first cargo mission to new space station
https://www.digitaltrends.com/news/chin … e-station/

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2021-06-01 12:21:17)

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#12 2021-06-01 19:16:50

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 23,078

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

News articles have indicating that china has cloned there own version of a starship already, so its possible....

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#13 2021-06-25 04:54:34

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 884

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

China unveils ambitious 'roadmap of human Mars exploration'
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/china … d=78463069


"We are willing to join hands with our counterparts and partners all over the world, to realize the dream of mankind going to deep space and walking on Mars," he said.

The Mars Society
https://twitter.com/TheMarsSociety/stat … 8291436544
# China plans to send its first crewed mission to # Mars in 2033 cnbc . com

Musk Tweets!
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1403960366703337476
Esoteric meme of the day

"How does China's satellite chain help taikonauts make home calls?"
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-06-23/H … index.html

China's self-developed Tianlian relay satellites can help Chinese astronauts, or taikonauts, connect with Earth seamlessly as well as keep them safe during the journey.
The taikonauts in China's space station can contact the control center on Earth or their families freely anytime thanks to China's advances in satellite systems.
China currently operates five data-tracking relay satellites including four Tianlian I and a Tianlian II-01 working as data transmission stops, with the ability to cover satellites and manned spacecraft in medium and low Earth orbits.


Shenzhou-12 crew aboard Tianhe space station module had a chat with Xi Jinping early today. Crew used footholds to remain stationary.
https://twitter.com/AJ_FI/status/1407596080649453569

Now, there are in total 10 astronauts in space at # ISS Space_Station and #Tiangong TGSpaceStation
. Launched by Russian Soyuz MS-18, China’s Shenzhou 12 and US’s SpaceX dragon.
https://twitter.com/CNSAWatcher/status/ … 8090177536

'Le Chinarm'
https://twitter.com/Kaynouky/status/1406220956834713602

Now the more striking news is that plans of the long talked-about CZ-9 has changed completely again! Due to the emergence of CZ-5DY & what looks like the Chinese taking note of what 2 US billionaires are doing, they have given up the old CZ-9 plans & engines for a clean sheet.
https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/stat … 1441175556

The Chinese Announced They Will Put First Humans On Mars Before 2033 ???
https://www.unilad.co.uk/technology/chi … fore-2033/

"China in Space: Impact on China-US Competition"
https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/china-i … mpetition/

"China's new Mars rover could accelerate a growing space race"
https://astronomy.com/news/2021/05/chin … space-race
On May 14, a six-wheeled rover the size of a small car plunged into Mars’ thin atmosphere, braking with a series of parachutes and retro-rockets before touching down in a picture-perfect landing. After a 10-month journey through space, the China-built robot could finally stretch out its solar panels and send an all-clear signal back to Earth. As the news reached the Beijing Aerospace Control Center in the pre-dawn hours, bleary-eyed engineers erupted in thunderous applause.
The Mars-bound Tianwen-1 spacecraft launched back in July 2020 carrying both a Mars rover and orbiter. It reached the Red Planet on February 10, about a week before NASA's Perseverance rover arrived. Ever since, the Chinese orbiter has been circling Mars, scouting out the best landing site for the rover to carry out its mission.

Tianwen-1 Infographic
https://twitter.com/TheElegant055/statu … 85/photo/1

"Astronauts record first 24 hours in space"
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57577880

New footage released on Wednesday also showed the three men - Nie Haisheng, Liu Boming and Tang Hongbo - having meals as boxes floated around them.
The video documented their first 24 hours aboard the Tianhe module, where they will stay for three months.
It is China's first crewed space mission in nearly five years, and will be its longest to date.

China builds Mars simulation in similar desert landscape to prepare for exploration
https://nypost.com/2021/06/15/china-bui … landscape/

The town is known as China’s “Mars Camp” due to its eerily eroded desert landscape that resembles the surface of the red planet. The red rock area of the Qaidam basin in western Qinghai has been dubbed “the most Martian place on Earth” as experts claimed that the landscape, rocks, sand, and even the temperatures are similar to those on the Red Planet.
The simulation camp was launched in the town in 2019 with a base designed as a place for space enthusiasts and professionals to get a better understanding of Mars with immersive experiences in the simulation environment. Covering 1,734 acres, the “Mars Camp” consists of a tourism center, a Mars community, a simulation base and other facilities.

The Chinese wants to up the ante on the space race with a 'sky ladder' to Mars that can beam humans and cargo up in a capsule
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-wants- … 01342.html

China wants to put the first human on Mars in 2033, according to a new presentation made by Wang Xiaojun
https://gizmodo.com/china-hopes-to-put- … 1847163177

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2021-06-25 07:38:19)

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#14 2021-06-25 05:54:09

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 7,297

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

For Mars_B4_Moon ... thanks for Post #13, with it's many links (with comments) ..

I am planning to follow up about the "sky ladder" on a more up-to-date browser ...

Beaming people and cargo might imply laser delivered energy ...

SearchTerm:Ladder sky ladder

Following up:

This gent appears to be someone who would appear to fit well into the creative-thinking environment of the NewMars forum.

China is not only looking to putting a man on Mars by 2033 - it's also working on the "sky ladder," a delivery system made of carbon nanotubes (strong, miniscule carbon atom filaments) that can beam humans and cargo up to space stations for what it claims will be just 4% of the current cost.

Wang, who leads the state-owned China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, did not elaborate on the specifics of how this "sky ladder" all the way to Mars will work, but noted that it would be a starting point for future space voyages and transport missions to the red planet.

Xinhua News posted a video earlier this year that modeled how the system could potentially function for journeys to the moon. In the video, a capsule is seen being propelled from Earth to a Chinese space station, then leapfrogging its way to another space station before reaching a lunar landing pad.

If anyone can find the video referenced in the article, I'd be most interested in seeing it.

The potential applications of carbon nanotubes are just ** beginning ** to be imagined, let alone realized.

This gent may have an idea that will bear fruit some day, but whatever it is, it is already stimulating creative thinking in the minds of those who learn of it, and wonder what it might be.

(th)

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#15 2021-06-25 13:04:37

kbd512
Administrator
Registered: 2015-01-02
Posts: 4,612

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

Has anyone else considered the possibility that the Chinese are not seriously interested in establishing a Mars colony?

The Russians and Chinese seem very preoccupied with their lunar ambitions, and this is what they constantly talk about in the news.  Every other space agency and private corporation except for Blue Origin, another American company, is at least a good 10 years behind the power curve when it comes to development of fully reusable orbital launch vehicles, which are mandatory foundational technology for a Mars colony to exist at any scale.  Blue Origin is probably 5 to 7 years behind SpaceX.  Both corporations have reliable LOX/LCH4 engines with lots of testing, but nobody else has anything like that in production and only Raptor has actually flown aboard a launch vehicle, or the upper stage of one, moving under its own power.  SpaceX is fabricating both the booster and upper stage for a fully functional orbital vehicle, and sub-orbital testing continues.  Nobody else is anywhere near that far along.  The Chinese use any success as a propaganda tool, so we'd know about it if they were close, because they would intimate to everyone that they are.

NASA has the only fully tested long duration closed loop life support system in existence, and they have decades of experience with development of long duration life support.  You can't simply steal the blueprints and copy that technology, as the Chinese theft of F-35 design data has proven.  Thorough understanding is required, which only comes from home-grown development and testing.

We know that Russian and Chinese space suit technology is nothing to write home about, either.  They're good basic designs, and I'm not taking anything away from the technical skills of their design engineers, but NASA has gone through more successive generations of space suit technology than both of their space programs have produced over their entire history.  This is the difference between having an entire private industry based around a technology set and having one or a handful of specialty equipment suppliers.  America's space suit programs are not limited by the creativity of the engineers at NASA or some government-run corporation.

When last I checked, the electric propulsion technologies used by Russia and China are fairly primitive, so their ability to launch the "slow boat from LEO" to deliver heavy cargo is likewise limited.

No amount of hand-waving or claims without evidence can dismiss the importance of those technologies or how necessary they are to any long duration exploration or colonization campaign.

One other factor that must be considered is that, much as NASA has become a political organization today (a welfare for program for smart people and a jobs program for politicians to exploit), space exploration is a special interest group within all governments.  Both Russia and China have limits as to what resources they're willing to devote to accomplishing a given space exploration goal.  Russia has largely given up on sending interplanetary probes to Mars because their success rate is very limited.  China has landed a single small rover on Mars decades after the US had accomplished the same goal and behind India.  Let's see how repeatable their success rate is before jumping to conclusions, as well as the longevity of their technology in operation, because those are much better gauges of their commitment to the task.

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#16 2021-06-25 17:45:48

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 6,858

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

The Chinese are sophisticated game players - have you ever heard of "The Art of War"?

If their main space exploration focus was on Mars, the last thing they would do is tell you it was. They would tell you their main focus was the Moon.

I agree that China has a lot of calls on its resources apart from Mars. They are intent on catching up with and surpassing the USA militarily and ensuring they can overcome Taiwan with a huge excess of force. I would accept currently Taiwan ranks a lot higher than Mars. But they think very long term and will see the dangers of allowing Space X/the USA to get control of a whole planet's resources.


kbd512 wrote:

Has anyone else considered the possibility that the Chinese are not seriously interested in establishing a Mars colony?

The Russians and Chinese seem very preoccupied with their lunar ambitions, and this is what they constantly talk about in the news.  Every other space agency and private corporation except for Blue Origin, another American company, is at least a good 10 years behind the power curve when it comes to development of fully reusable orbital launch vehicles, which are mandatory foundational technology for a Mars colony to exist at any scale.  Blue Origin is probably 5 to 7 years behind SpaceX.  Both corporations have reliable LOX/LCH4 engines with lots of testing, but nobody else has anything like that in production and only Raptor has actually flown aboard a launch vehicle, or the upper stage of one, moving under its own power.  SpaceX is fabricating both the booster and upper stage for a fully functional orbital vehicle, and sub-orbital testing continues.  Nobody else is anywhere near that far along.  The Chinese use any success as a propaganda tool, so we'd know about it if they were close, because they would intimate to everyone that they are.

NASA has the only fully tested long duration closed loop life support system in existence, and they have decades of experience with development of long duration life support.  You can't simply steal the blueprints and copy that technology, as the Chinese theft of F-35 design data has proven.  Thorough understanding is required, which only comes from home-grown development and testing.

We know that Russian and Chinese space suit technology is nothing to write home about, either.  They're good basic designs, and I'm not taking anything away from the technical skills of their design engineers, but NASA has gone through more successive generations of space suit technology than both of their space programs have produced over their entire history.  This is the difference between having an entire private industry based around a technology set and having one or a handful of specialty equipment suppliers.  America's space suit programs are not limited by the creativity of the engineers at NASA or some government-run corporation.

When last I checked, the electric propulsion technologies used by Russia and China are fairly primitive, so their ability to launch the "slow boat from LEO" to deliver heavy cargo is likewise limited.

No amount of hand-waving or claims without evidence can dismiss the importance of those technologies or how necessary they are to any long duration exploration or colonization campaign.

One other factor that must be considered is that, much as NASA has become a political organization today (a welfare for program for smart people and a jobs program for politicians to exploit), space exploration is a special interest group within all governments.  Both Russia and China have limits as to what resources they're willing to devote to accomplishing a given space exploration goal.  Russia has largely given up on sending interplanetary probes to Mars because their success rate is very limited.  China has landed a single small rover on Mars decades after the US had accomplished the same goal and behind India.  Let's see how repeatable their success rate is before jumping to conclusions, as well as the longevity of their technology in operation, because those are much better gauges of their commitment to the task.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#17 2021-06-26 19:43:25

kbd512
Administrator
Registered: 2015-01-02
Posts: 4,612

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

Louis,

China is rapidly becoming an old folks home.  Old men frequently con young men into fighting in wars to satisfy their need to feel more important than most of them ever will be, in the grand scheme of things, but they tend to practice a lot more art than war.  If the Chinese think they're going to surpass America militarily, then something tells me that their leadership flunked the test over Chapter 2 of that book, or they're going to stupidly spend themselves into oblivion the way we have.  Either way, they're not a serious military threat, except to their neighbors.  The Vietnamese swiftly handed their rear ends to them when the Chinese military tried to invade Viet Nam at the tail end of the Viet Nam War.  Apart from continual provocations, the Chinese haven't made that same mistake since, although I doubt there's anyone left in the Vietnamese military who knows anything about fighting wars.

Anyway, China is a military threat to America in roughly the same way that an ant colony is a threat to an elephant.  If the elephant simply lies down and stops moving, then eventually the ants will eat the elephant, but if the elephant ever decides to simply roll over, it'll wipe out the entire ant colony.

There's nothing that SpaceX or America would even attempt to do to prevent the Chinese from going to other places in the solar system, because that is not their mandate.  By the time the Chinese catch up with SpaceX, the western world could have transport ships in interplanetary space with roughly the same tonnage as America's ocean going naval vessels.  The Chinese would be well advised to leave those alone if they don't want Space Force to go after them.

I respect our adversaries, but attributing all these nonexistent capabilities to them is only feeding into the Military Industrial Complex.  We've spent enough money on our military.  If other nations feel the need to expand their military forces to protect themselves from the Russians or Chinese, then that's their decision to make.  We've wasted enough time and effort warning them of the potential dangers.  It's time to put our tax money into other potentially profitable enterprises, such as colonizing the moon and Mars.

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#18 2021-09-15 06:59:26

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 884

Re: Could China beat Space X to Mars?

China's astronauts make spacewalk to upgrade robotic arm
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chin … m_999.html

Drones to connect Mars colonies at 3,800mph
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chin … -8twl3jgmv

Orbiter’s impromptu from its deep space mission ? Chinese Probe Returns to Moon From Deep Space, for Unknown Purpose
https://futurism.com/the-byte/chinese-p … turns-moon

China's Shenzhou 12 Astronauts Send Back Stunning Images of Earth
https://www.space.com/china-shenzhou-12 … rth-photos

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