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tahanson43206

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Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 19,421

Probability

This new topic is offered for collection of insights and for comments as appropriate

I'll lead off with a report on a remarkable achievement of a group of human researchers, working over many years with physical systems and pure mathematics.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the- … ket-newtab

Sailors facing an imminent storm don’t have years to study the growing waves around them, but the new framework represents small steps toward the long-term goal for rogue wave prediction — machinery that scans the ocean and sounds the alarm when it’s time to batten down the hatches. LDT tools, once they’re modified for the open ocean, could be one way for those on boats like the München to know the moment a rogue wave starts focusing.

“Before, you had this mythological monster that could be anything and everywhere.” Athanassoulis said. “Now you have this picture, you have these fingerprints, and you know what you’re looking for.”

Charlie Wood is a journalist covering developments in the physical sciences both on and off the planet.

Mr. Wood's report covers an application of statistics that is applicable to the real world, in the sense that it could save lives if the methods are implemented on deep seagoing vessels.

I am interested in probability in general, since we humans are constantly making bets (whether we realize it or not) based upon our best guesses of the probability of a particular future we might expect to see.

I note that the researchers have NOT resolved the question of HOW rogue waves form.  Instead, they appear to have worked out a way to anticipate rogue waves about 15 minutes before they occur.

The comparable situation in space would be waves of charged particles, from the Sun or elsewhere.

It seems to me highly likely that the intensity of radiation in open space may vary from some minimal constant flow to dramatic powerful events.

The work reported in the article is about statistics of events in the open ocean on Earth.  We humans have ** some ** knowledge of radiation levels in open space, but I'm guessing that whatever knowledge we possess, it is a tiny fraction of what will be known in coming centuries.

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tahanson43206

Moderator

Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 19,421

Re: Probability

This post is reserved for an index to posts that may be contributed by NewMars members over time.

(th)

tahanson43206

Moderator

Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 19,421

Re: Probability

The topic of probability showed up in a book about Planetary Spacecraft Navigation by James Miller.

This post is to note the topic received significant coverage in the book, as a factor that a spacecraft navigator must weigh in planning maneuvers.

My guess is that the reason for this focus is the uncertainty that clouds the picture for mission planners, when a spacecraft is far from Earth and arriving data is insufficient to know where the spacecraft is with respect to the destination or other objects in the vicinity of the voyage.

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